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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table 22:11 - Mar 2 with 2548 viewsGuthrum

As of 2/3/2021. Usual rules - based on recent form over however many games each team has left.

Lets see how things start moving from here!


Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:13 - Mar 2 with 2496 viewsSuperblue95

9th?!

Cook Out

My hobbies include being quiet during trips, clapping with songs, and diabetes.
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:13 - Mar 2 with 2474 viewswkj

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:13 - Mar 2 by Superblue95

9th?!

Cook Out


Haven't had me tea yet, yes please

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:16 - Mar 2 with 2392 viewsGuthrum

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:13 - Mar 2 by Superblue95

9th?!

Cook Out


This is the Paul Cook baseline, his starting point. If we can keep winning, that table will shift fast.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:19 - Mar 2 with 2322 viewsNthsuffolkblue

What sort of length of time are you taking that form over? Our form over the last 6 must put us much higher than that. Are you going 10 matches or more?

EDIT: Based purely on the last 6 matches regardless of home or away, Peterborough break the 100 point barrier with 102.
Hull finish on 80/81.
Lincoln only get 72.
Sunderland 86/87.
Portsmouth 69/70.
Doncaster 63/64.
We would get to 80.

Of the teams currently below us the only ones on better 6-match form who would go above us would be Blackpool who would get to 83.

That would put us in the play-offs but we are not going to maintain our 6-match form over 16 games ... are we?
[Post edited 2 Mar 22:30]

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:20 - Mar 2 with 2279 viewsgainsboroughblue

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:19 - Mar 2 by Nthsuffolkblue

What sort of length of time are you taking that form over? Our form over the last 6 must put us much higher than that. Are you going 10 matches or more?

EDIT: Based purely on the last 6 matches regardless of home or away, Peterborough break the 100 point barrier with 102.
Hull finish on 80/81.
Lincoln only get 72.
Sunderland 86/87.
Portsmouth 69/70.
Doncaster 63/64.
We would get to 80.

Of the teams currently below us the only ones on better 6-match form who would go above us would be Blackpool who would get to 83.

That would put us in the play-offs but we are not going to maintain our 6-match form over 16 games ... are we?
[Post edited 2 Mar 22:30]


The last 16 games. In other words, the amount of games remaining.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:21 - Mar 2 with 2251 viewsC_HealyIsAPleasure

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:19 - Mar 2 by Nthsuffolkblue

What sort of length of time are you taking that form over? Our form over the last 6 must put us much higher than that. Are you going 10 matches or more?

EDIT: Based purely on the last 6 matches regardless of home or away, Peterborough break the 100 point barrier with 102.
Hull finish on 80/81.
Lincoln only get 72.
Sunderland 86/87.
Portsmouth 69/70.
Doncaster 63/64.
We would get to 80.

Of the teams currently below us the only ones on better 6-match form who would go above us would be Blackpool who would get to 83.

That would put us in the play-offs but we are not going to maintain our 6-match form over 16 games ... are we?
[Post edited 2 Mar 22:30]


“based on recent form over however many games each team has left”

Highlighting crass stupidity since sometime around 2010
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:22 - Mar 2 with 2232 viewsjeera

Guthers out!

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:31 - Mar 2 with 2126 viewsDinnernotTea

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:13 - Mar 2 by wkj

Haven't had me tea yet, yes please


Dinner not tea.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:32 - Mar 2 with 2119 viewsNthsuffolkblue

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:20 - Mar 2 by gainsboroughblue

The last 16 games. In other words, the amount of games remaining.


Ah, I got you. Much simpler to work out than what I just did probably too!

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:32 - Mar 2 with 2120 viewsStokieBlue

Edit: Don't worry, I see that you take the form from the last 16 games and then extrapolate that forward to get the final table.

Did anyone ever find a site which provides a CSV (or similar) of all the fixtures in the season for a division?

SB
[Post edited 2 Mar 22:40]

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:35 - Mar 2 with 2077 viewsNthsuffolkblue

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:21 - Mar 2 by C_HealyIsAPleasure

“based on recent form over however many games each team has left”


Yes, glossed over that when I read it first time.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:58 - Mar 2 with 1895 viewsSitfcB

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:32 - Mar 2 by Nthsuffolkblue

Ah, I got you. Much simpler to work out than what I just did probably too!


I think he should take it out of the last 5 games to be precise.

COYB
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 09:46 - Mar 3 with 1542 viewsStokieBlue

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:32 - Mar 2 by StokieBlue

Edit: Don't worry, I see that you take the form from the last 16 games and then extrapolate that forward to get the final table.

Did anyone ever find a site which provides a CSV (or similar) of all the fixtures in the season for a division?

SB
[Post edited 2 Mar 22:40]


So does anyone know where they have downloads of all the fixtures for all the weeks in a sensible format?

Hard to make good predictions without that data.

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 09:58 - Mar 3 with 1504 viewsSaleAway

Ignoring the placings - but if we get 75 points, that would have put us in the playoffs every year for the past 10 years....

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:09 - Mar 3 with 1461 viewsNthQldITFC

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 09:46 - Mar 3 by StokieBlue

So does anyone know where they have downloads of all the fixtures for all the weeks in a sensible format?

Hard to make good predictions without that data.

SB


https://www.football-data.co.uk/englandm.php

This looks reasonable for data up until last weekend (csv format, no registration required), but doesn't provide dates for remaining fixtures.

Seems to have quite a depth of quantified information, including shots, shots on target, corners, offsides and discipline which I guess could all feed into a more nuanced model. Also has bookies odds for retrofitting...

Oh Frith, I'm gonna get obsessed again.

The only thing I know is that I might be wrong about everything else.
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:14 - Mar 3 with 1439 viewsPinewoodblue

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 09:46 - Mar 3 by StokieBlue

So does anyone know where they have downloads of all the fixtures for all the weeks in a sensible format?

Hard to make good predictions without that data.

SB


BBC site is reasonable, or you could have a go at Gav’s League predictor.

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:15 - Mar 3 with 1434 viewsStokieBlue

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:09 - Mar 3 by NthQldITFC

https://www.football-data.co.uk/englandm.php

This looks reasonable for data up until last weekend (csv format, no registration required), but doesn't provide dates for remaining fixtures.

Seems to have quite a depth of quantified information, including shots, shots on target, corners, offsides and discipline which I guess could all feed into a more nuanced model. Also has bookies odds for retrofitting...

Oh Frith, I'm gonna get obsessed again.


Morning.

Indeed, I've been using this data for a while for a MC based algo I've written which predicts the matches each week (and can be backtested historically on the data you've highlighted).

I've actually just started rewriting that though and thought it would be nice to be able to take the results from the MC matches and then add those into the DB for that week and then play the next weeks matches based on the results of the MC. You could then continue this on until the end of the season and it would take into account changes in predicted form.

Results will obviously be varied but might be fun and provide some insight.

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:43 - Mar 3 with 1326 viewsHalf_Idiot

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:14 - Mar 3 by Pinewoodblue

BBC site is reasonable, or you could have a go at Gav’s League predictor.


Whilst the league predictor doesn't sort by date, if you're just going on current home and away form then I wouldn't think it's necessary.

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-calculator/?step=2&lge=3
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:43 - Mar 3 with 1324 viewsNthQldITFC

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:15 - Mar 3 by StokieBlue

Morning.

Indeed, I've been using this data for a while for a MC based algo I've written which predicts the matches each week (and can be backtested historically on the data you've highlighted).

I've actually just started rewriting that though and thought it would be nice to be able to take the results from the MC matches and then add those into the DB for that week and then play the next weeks matches based on the results of the MC. You could then continue this on until the end of the season and it would take into account changes in predicted form.

Results will obviously be varied but might be fun and provide some insight.

SB


That sounds great SB, what platform are you using? I always find this sort of thing fascinating to mess around with (in a fairly amateur sort of way), but I do tend to get a bit obsessed! I'm already fighting with myself on this one and wondering whether I can (or want to) use it as a project to try to learn a bit about the scary future of self-correcting algorithms and perhaps some more up to date programming skills.

The only thing I know is that I might be wrong about everything else.
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:47 - Mar 3 with 1303 viewsStokieBlue

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:43 - Mar 3 by NthQldITFC

That sounds great SB, what platform are you using? I always find this sort of thing fascinating to mess around with (in a fairly amateur sort of way), but I do tend to get a bit obsessed! I'm already fighting with myself on this one and wondering whether I can (or want to) use it as a project to try to learn a bit about the scary future of self-correcting algorithms and perhaps some more up to date programming skills.


It's written in Python with the results being stored in a CSV for the whole dataset and then in JSON for each individual match with far more information.

Not convinced by machine learning algos for football, it could be possible and I will likely have a play with them at some point but I think the scope for P-Hacking is far too great. Might be possible to virtually ignore the majority of stats for matches and then just compare something like PPG vs the bookies odds looking for historical cases of arbitrage which could then be looked for in the future.

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

2

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:44 - Mar 3 with 1177 viewssoupytwist

This site collates a load of stats and provides pretty detailed predictions -

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/LeagueOne.html

After last night's result gives us a 20% chance of promotion.

https://twitter.com/ITFC_live normally tweets out the updated figures
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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:15 - Mar 9 with 930 viewsNthsuffolkblue

Update on this.

I make it currently:

Peterborough 88
Sunderland 87
--------------------
Hull 85
Lincoln 81
Doncaster 80
Oxford 78
--------------------
Blackpool 77
Town 70
Portsmouth 69
Accrington 67
Charlton 66

We have Portsmouth (who are on poor form) to play from the top 6 and then Charlton are the only side in the top half we left to play. It is all about us winning the majority of the games against bottom half sides now.

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-1
Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 23:04 - Mar 9 with 770 viewsPinewoodblue

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 22:15 - Mar 9 by Nthsuffolkblue

Update on this.

I make it currently:

Peterborough 88
Sunderland 87
--------------------
Hull 85
Lincoln 81
Doncaster 80
Oxford 78
--------------------
Blackpool 77
Town 70
Portsmouth 69
Accrington 67
Charlton 66

We have Portsmouth (who are on poor form) to play from the top 6 and then Charlton are the only side in the top half we left to play. It is all about us winning the majority of the games against bottom half sides now.


It is beginning to look that the relegation fight is between the current bottom six.

We have seven games to play against them..

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 23:24 - Mar 9 with 720 viewsNthsuffolkblue

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 23:04 - Mar 9 by Pinewoodblue

It is beginning to look that the relegation fight is between the current bottom six.

We have seven games to play against them..


Ha.

Only bothered calculating the top section as I did it manually not having a spreadsheet set up for it.

Not sure why it was worthy of a down arrow.

EDIT: Oops I misunderstood your post. Yes, I see what you mean now. I am not sure playing teams in that battle is an especially good thing. They often win unexpected matches as they find some form in an attempt to stay up.
[Post edited 9 Mar 23:51]

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Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:30 - Mar 10 with 438 viewsWallingford_Boy

Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 23:04 - Mar 9 by Pinewoodblue

It is beginning to look that the relegation fight is between the current bottom six.

We have seven games to play against them..


I'd say thats not going to be far off.

I said Peterborough/Sunderland top two a while back, plus we have games against all the sides scrapping for points at the bottom, fighting for their lives.

Scrapping and fighting for points is not our strong point!

I'd say 8th/9th is about right for us, unfortunately.

RIP Sir Bobby

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