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Good news everyone! 19:05 - Mar 7 with 1678 viewsBlueBadger

We've got covid on the run, but flu's going to be a b*gger next winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56312621

Ham>Lam
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Good news everyone! on 21:12 - Mar 7 with 1344 viewsChurchman

That’s the BBC for you! An optimist might say that because people have got in the habit of washing their hands better, hygiene and an awareness of distance, that transmission of flu virus might be reduced next year. It’s all the realms of speculation that would be better not to be indulged in by the media.

The endless procession of experts on tv is driving me nuts too. They come on one after the other peddling opinions as certainty and most of the time they’ve no more idea than the rest of us. If they were that good, they’d be doing something more useful than filling BBC air time.
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Good news everyone! on 21:17 - Mar 7 with 1312 viewsJ2BLUE

Good news everyone! on 21:12 - Mar 7 by Churchman

That’s the BBC for you! An optimist might say that because people have got in the habit of washing their hands better, hygiene and an awareness of distance, that transmission of flu virus might be reduced next year. It’s all the realms of speculation that would be better not to be indulged in by the media.

The endless procession of experts on tv is driving me nuts too. They come on one after the other peddling opinions as certainty and most of the time they’ve no more idea than the rest of us. If they were that good, they’d be doing something more useful than filling BBC air time.


Trouble is you can find an expert to back up any preconceived opinion these days. Communication is so easy that one single expert saying something means very little.

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Good news everyone! on 21:23 - Mar 7 with 1300 viewsStokieBlue

Unless of course people are more sensible and considerate towards others with regards to space, stay home when they are sick and don't go to work and wear masks on public transport and then it'll be much better,

As you know of course, flu isn't as contagious as C19 and thus could be greatly reduced every year with a few measures.

Gave herself a rather big out as well:

""It doesn't mean that they'll necessarily happen, but my job is to make sure that we have options available for the country in case things are not as satisfactory as we'd all like them to be,"

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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Good news everyone! on 00:26 - Mar 8 with 1157 viewsBlueBadger

Good news everyone! on 21:12 - Mar 7 by Churchman

That’s the BBC for you! An optimist might say that because people have got in the habit of washing their hands better, hygiene and an awareness of distance, that transmission of flu virus might be reduced next year. It’s all the realms of speculation that would be better not to be indulged in by the media.

The endless procession of experts on tv is driving me nuts too. They come on one after the other peddling opinions as certainty and most of the time they’ve no more idea than the rest of us. If they were that good, they’d be doing something more useful than filling BBC air time.


Experts eh? What do they know? Next they'll be telling us Brexit was a colossally stupid idea.

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Good news everyone! on 07:58 - Mar 8 with 1018 viewsChurchman

Good news everyone! on 00:26 - Mar 8 by BlueBadger

Experts eh? What do they know? Next they'll be telling us Brexit was a colossally stupid idea.


It didn’t need an expert to tell us that.
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Good news everyone! on 08:13 - Mar 8 with 990 viewsHerbivore

Good news everyone! on 21:12 - Mar 7 by Churchman

That’s the BBC for you! An optimist might say that because people have got in the habit of washing their hands better, hygiene and an awareness of distance, that transmission of flu virus might be reduced next year. It’s all the realms of speculation that would be better not to be indulged in by the media.

The endless procession of experts on tv is driving me nuts too. They come on one after the other peddling opinions as certainty and most of the time they’ve no more idea than the rest of us. If they were that good, they’d be doing something more useful than filling BBC air time.


You're saying that most of the time actual subject experts have no more idea about the subject they're talking about than Churchman off TWTD? This is either staggeringly arrogant or staggeringly ignorant, possibly both, but it does rather speak to why the country is such an utter state.

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Good news everyone! on 08:17 - Mar 8 with 975 viewsfooters

Good news everyone! on 08:13 - Mar 8 by Herbivore

You're saying that most of the time actual subject experts have no more idea about the subject they're talking about than Churchman off TWTD? This is either staggeringly arrogant or staggeringly ignorant, possibly both, but it does rather speak to why the country is such an utter state.


You may well be highly qualified and have years of study behind you but here's wot I reckon right.

State of it.

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Good news everyone! on 08:35 - Mar 8 with 938 viewsChurchman

Good news everyone! on 08:13 - Mar 8 by Herbivore

You're saying that most of the time actual subject experts have no more idea about the subject they're talking about than Churchman off TWTD? This is either staggeringly arrogant or staggeringly ignorant, possibly both, but it does rather speak to why the country is such an utter state.


They are givers of opinion, not fact yet that is how they are often presented. Example? A number were wheeled out last year to explain why the governments vaccine procurement was wrong. That the U.K. should have rowed in with the EU. They were wrong.

In terms of my comment, I was thinking about Brexit where experts all offered views most of which turned out to be wrong. But it didn’t take an expert at the time to work out it was economically not a great idea.

In conclusion, what I am saying is that in my opinion, the trail of experts views who are wheeled out day after day who are not working with the problem should in my opinion be taken with a pinch of salt.
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Good news everyone! on 08:45 - Mar 8 with 902 viewsfooters

Good news everyone! on 08:35 - Mar 8 by Churchman

They are givers of opinion, not fact yet that is how they are often presented. Example? A number were wheeled out last year to explain why the governments vaccine procurement was wrong. That the U.K. should have rowed in with the EU. They were wrong.

In terms of my comment, I was thinking about Brexit where experts all offered views most of which turned out to be wrong. But it didn’t take an expert at the time to work out it was economically not a great idea.

In conclusion, what I am saying is that in my opinion, the trail of experts views who are wheeled out day after day who are not working with the problem should in my opinion be taken with a pinch of salt.


Taking expert opinion with a pinch of salt is a far cry from you basically saying 'they know as much as any of us do'.
[Post edited 8 Mar 8:52]

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Good news everyone! on 08:45 - Mar 8 with 896 viewsRadlett_blue

Good news everyone! on 21:23 - Mar 7 by StokieBlue

Unless of course people are more sensible and considerate towards others with regards to space, stay home when they are sick and don't go to work and wear masks on public transport and then it'll be much better,

As you know of course, flu isn't as contagious as C19 and thus could be greatly reduced every year with a few measures.

Gave herself a rather big out as well:

""It doesn't mean that they'll necessarily happen, but my job is to make sure that we have options available for the country in case things are not as satisfactory as we'd all like them to be,"

SB


A typical headline, massively distorting the truth and the facts in order to generate clicks. Shame on the BBC, who don't have the same need to indulge in this practice as commercial media companies.
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Good news everyone! on 08:46 - Mar 8 with 892 viewsHerbivore

Good news everyone! on 08:35 - Mar 8 by Churchman

They are givers of opinion, not fact yet that is how they are often presented. Example? A number were wheeled out last year to explain why the governments vaccine procurement was wrong. That the U.K. should have rowed in with the EU. They were wrong.

In terms of my comment, I was thinking about Brexit where experts all offered views most of which turned out to be wrong. But it didn’t take an expert at the time to work out it was economically not a great idea.

In conclusion, what I am saying is that in my opinion, the trail of experts views who are wheeled out day after day who are not working with the problem should in my opinion be taken with a pinch of salt.


In the article that this thread is about the expert literally acknowledges that what they are saying is not certain:


""So we could see surges in flu. We could see surges in other respiratory viruses and other respiratory pathogens."

Dr Hopkins said her role as a government advisor was to "prepare for worst-case scenarios".

"It doesn't mean that they'll necessarily happen, but my job is to make sure that we have options available for the country in case things are not as satisfactory as we'd all like them to be," she said".

Note she consistently uses the word "could", not "will". Note she also explicitly states that what she is suggesting may not transpire but is a potential worst case scenario.

Perhaps if you were an expert you'd pick up on this kind of thing.

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Good news everyone! on 08:51 - Mar 8 with 871 viewsHerbivore

Good news everyone! on 08:45 - Mar 8 by footers

Taking expert opinion with a pinch of salt is a far cry from you basically saying 'they know as much as any of us do'.
[Post edited 8 Mar 8:52]


Indeed. And experts rarely present their views as concrete and irrefutable. The very nature of expertise is that you also know what you don't know, which usually means you know you might be proved wrong as new facts emerge, or that another expert could legitimately interpret evidence in a different way than you have. I'm not sure that means that we should relegate their expertise to being equivalent to the views of Dave down the pub, who probably doesn't acknowledge much uncertainty in his views and who doesn't know what he doesn't know.

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Good news everyone! on 08:54 - Mar 8 with 841 viewsfooters

Good news everyone! on 08:51 - Mar 8 by Herbivore

Indeed. And experts rarely present their views as concrete and irrefutable. The very nature of expertise is that you also know what you don't know, which usually means you know you might be proved wrong as new facts emerge, or that another expert could legitimately interpret evidence in a different way than you have. I'm not sure that means that we should relegate their expertise to being equivalent to the views of Dave down the pub, who probably doesn't acknowledge much uncertainty in his views and who doesn't know what he doesn't know.


Yeah, but someone on TWTD finds it slightly annoying.

How about:

News event happens. No comment or analysis given.

Then we'd be able to fit in hundreds of stories a day and people can reckon whatever they like about them, only with less insight? Seems sensible to me.

Anyway, I've got to go get my covid jab from the greengrocer now.

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Good news everyone! on 08:56 - Mar 8 with 828 viewsJammyDodgerrr

I think we'll still be having to wear masks until at least winter, so you would expect the numbers won't be that bad. Plus hygiene is better, probably.

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Good news everyone! on 09:19 - Mar 8 with 787 viewsChurchman

Good news everyone! on 08:51 - Mar 8 by Herbivore

Indeed. And experts rarely present their views as concrete and irrefutable. The very nature of expertise is that you also know what you don't know, which usually means you know you might be proved wrong as new facts emerge, or that another expert could legitimately interpret evidence in a different way than you have. I'm not sure that means that we should relegate their expertise to being equivalent to the views of Dave down the pub, who probably doesn't acknowledge much uncertainty in his views and who doesn't know what he doesn't know.


I disagree with that. They often present their views as certainty and they rarely present their views in the way you describe. The people I listen to are people most are those actually working on the problem, in particular people like JVT, not some crusty from a university the BBC wheel out to try and create a story.

I stand by what I said last night. That’s my opinion.
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Good news everyone! on 09:30 - Mar 8 with 758 viewsStokieBlue

Good news everyone! on 09:19 - Mar 8 by Churchman

I disagree with that. They often present their views as certainty and they rarely present their views in the way you describe. The people I listen to are people most are those actually working on the problem, in particular people like JVT, not some crusty from a university the BBC wheel out to try and create a story.

I stand by what I said last night. That’s my opinion.


"not some crusty from a university"

Oh dear. There are many highly qualified people who aren't going to be working within the tiny inner-sphere of the government apparatus. To say they shouldn't be listened to is ridiculous. The experts working for the government can also be wrong, even JVT who said initially that wearing masks wasn't required. The science evolves as does the advice and opinions.

"I stand by what I said last night. That’s my opinion."

Haven't you spent the entire thread saying opinions are worthless?

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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Good news everyone! on 09:39 - Mar 8 with 729 viewsHerbivore

Good news everyone! on 09:19 - Mar 8 by Churchman

I disagree with that. They often present their views as certainty and they rarely present their views in the way you describe. The people I listen to are people most are those actually working on the problem, in particular people like JVT, not some crusty from a university the BBC wheel out to try and create a story.

I stand by what I said last night. That’s my opinion.


Wow. And we already know how highly you regard your own opinion as well. Staggering.

I really wish I could give your post multiple down arrows. One of the worst views I think I've read on here.
[Post edited 8 Mar 9:40]

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Good news everyone! on 09:47 - Mar 8 with 701 viewsm14_blue

Good news everyone! on 09:19 - Mar 8 by Churchman

I disagree with that. They often present their views as certainty and they rarely present their views in the way you describe. The people I listen to are people most are those actually working on the problem, in particular people like JVT, not some crusty from a university the BBC wheel out to try and create a story.

I stand by what I said last night. That’s my opinion.


She’s Public Health England's strategic response director for COVID-19.

Would you say that makes her someone who is ‘actually working on the problem’?
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Good news everyone! on 09:54 - Mar 8 with 681 viewsSwansea_Blue

It's going to take 7 months to vaccinate everyone and the talk is of having a joint covid/flu vaccine that would be rolled out to everyone. Wouldn't that require an endless cycle of vaccinations? They'd have to finish this round in July and then start immediately in order to be anywhere near ready for the 21/22 winter season. Is that even doable?

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Good news everyone! on 09:59 - Mar 8 with 663 viewsStokieBlue

Good news everyone! on 09:54 - Mar 8 by Swansea_Blue

It's going to take 7 months to vaccinate everyone and the talk is of having a joint covid/flu vaccine that would be rolled out to everyone. Wouldn't that require an endless cycle of vaccinations? They'd have to finish this round in July and then start immediately in order to be anywhere near ready for the 21/22 winter season. Is that even doable?


It's going to be rounds of vaccinations for a while now, especially as it's probably they will want to get at least one dose of any updated vaccine which targets the E484K mutations before next winter. There is are some promising results that AZ already works well for this but Pfizer might need an update.

Looking further ahead the J&J vaccine only requires one dose so I would think the longer term aim would be to get a combined single dose covid and flu vaccination. That would be superb if it's achievable. Ideally if we are getting greedy it would also be a form of universal flu vaccine a few of which are currently being worked on.

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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Good news everyone! on 10:03 - Mar 8 with 648 viewsSwansea_Blue

Good news everyone! on 09:59 - Mar 8 by StokieBlue

It's going to be rounds of vaccinations for a while now, especially as it's probably they will want to get at least one dose of any updated vaccine which targets the E484K mutations before next winter. There is are some promising results that AZ already works well for this but Pfizer might need an update.

Looking further ahead the J&J vaccine only requires one dose so I would think the longer term aim would be to get a combined single dose covid and flu vaccination. That would be superb if it's achievable. Ideally if we are getting greedy it would also be a form of universal flu vaccine a few of which are currently being worked on.

SB


Cheers. It certainly seems like this is going to be a logistical headache for the NHS for quite some time yet.

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Good news everyone! on 10:05 - Mar 8 with 643 viewsPinewoodblue

By starting this thread hasn’t BlueBadger done exactly the same thing as the BBC.

We already know , from the outcome of the Brexit referendum, that scaremongering is counter productive. Inviting experts to comment, knowing they are going to give a worse case scenario, isn’t helpful.

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Good news everyone! on 12:33 - Mar 8 with 553 viewsChurchman

Good news everyone! on 09:30 - Mar 8 by StokieBlue

"not some crusty from a university"

Oh dear. There are many highly qualified people who aren't going to be working within the tiny inner-sphere of the government apparatus. To say they shouldn't be listened to is ridiculous. The experts working for the government can also be wrong, even JVT who said initially that wearing masks wasn't required. The science evolves as does the advice and opinions.

"I stand by what I said last night. That’s my opinion."

Haven't you spent the entire thread saying opinions are worthless?

SB


I really respect your posts but on this occasion at no point have I said opinions are ‘worthless’. What have said is they should be treated for what they are. Opinions, not fact or possibly more accurately certainty.
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Good news everyone! on 14:24 - Mar 8 with 446 viewspoppiesman

Its the same when 'expert' weather forecasters predict a cold winter or a hot summer every year.
Some seemingly need to be heard to justify their job status, even if they are only stating the obvious.
In this case its been the same for so many years now that the NHS struggles to cope throughout winter. due to high flu etc admissions. Obviously covid has made it far worse but hopefully things are looking better in that department, but still expect a high level of pressure on the NHS again next winter as there always is.
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Good news everyone! on 14:46 - Mar 8 with 419 viewsjeera

Good news everyone! on 12:33 - Mar 8 by Churchman

I really respect your posts but on this occasion at no point have I said opinions are ‘worthless’. What have said is they should be treated for what they are. Opinions, not fact or possibly more accurately certainty.


But there is world of difference of course between that of some who studies a subject and offers a professional opinion based on the facts they hold, to the likes of you or I piping up with something we've decided off the cuff.

Well it looks like a duck, it sounds like a duck. Nope, dunno what it is.
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