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Hartlepool By-Election 13:12 - Mar 16 with 5527 viewstractordownsouth

Labour MP Mike Hill has resigned so we've got an upcoming by-election. Its' voting history makes it quite unique - it's one of only 3 seats where the Brexit Party/Reform UK won over 10k votes last time so Labour won on quite a low percentage

2019 Result:

Labour 15.4k
Conservatives 11.8k
Brexit Party 10.6k

I think Labour could be in quite big trouble here. The vaccine bounce is clearly going to help the Tories and the fact that Brexit is done may reduce the appeal of Reform UK. However, if Richard Tice stands (as he did in 2019) and does so on an anti-restrictions ticket he might split the right wing vote. I think it'll come down to turnout, as by-elections usually do.

At the moment I'd say a Tory gain is sadly likely but a good local campaign can change that.


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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:19 - Mar 16 with 2443 viewsDarth_Koont

Clearly Brexit was massive in Hartlepool (as it was in a great many constituencies).

So I think with Brexit (largely) out the way then it’s going to be more of a Labour vs. Conservative shootout. Shouldn’t Labour win this and increase their majority? What was the result in 2017 when Brexit was more or less parked?

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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:20 - Mar 16 with 2442 viewsUB9Blue

Not quite sure why you say 'sadly'.... the business people I know up there do not think the Labour MP has done anything to get the local economy moving.

Be interesting to see if the impact of the Mayor of Teeside, Ben Houchen, will have an influence following the recent announcements regarding funding to the area.
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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:23 - Mar 16 with 2419 viewsWallingford_Boy

Conservatives getting into a place like Hartlepool is probably the best thing that could happen to the place!

RIP Sir Bobby

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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:26 - Mar 16 with 2388 viewsNthQldITFC

The Brexit Party are getting a little concerned about the rising popularity of a pro-EU Independent, who hails originally from France, apparently.


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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:30 - Mar 16 with 2371 viewsChurchman

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:19 - Mar 16 by Darth_Koont

Clearly Brexit was massive in Hartlepool (as it was in a great many constituencies).

So I think with Brexit (largely) out the way then it’s going to be more of a Labour vs. Conservative shootout. Shouldn’t Labour win this and increase their majority? What was the result in 2017 when Brexit was more or less parked?


Hill won for Labour comfortably in 2017.

Given the epic ineptitude of the Government, the Labour candidate ought to win this by a country mile, unless he/she is a complete pillock.
[Post edited 16 Mar 2021 13:31]
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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:32 - Mar 16 with 2365 viewsSteve_M

This Mike Hill?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/22/labour-mp-fails-in-bid-to-remai

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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:34 - Mar 16 with 2343 viewsStokieBlue

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:19 - Mar 16 by Darth_Koont

Clearly Brexit was massive in Hartlepool (as it was in a great many constituencies).

So I think with Brexit (largely) out the way then it’s going to be more of a Labour vs. Conservative shootout. Shouldn’t Labour win this and increase their majority? What was the result in 2017 when Brexit was more or less parked?


You may be surprised how many have forgotten the start of the pandemic now that vaccinations are proceeding better than nearly anywhere else in the world and that's going to allow us to open up over the next few months.

There could easily be a vaccine bounce with regards to the voting. Guess we will see soon enough.

SB

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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:37 - Mar 16 with 2324 viewsGeoffSentence

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:26 - Mar 16 by NthQldITFC

The Brexit Party are getting a little concerned about the rising popularity of a pro-EU Independent, who hails originally from France, apparently.



But of course, he won't last long up there.

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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:37 - Mar 16 with 2322 viewstractordownsouth

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:19 - Mar 16 by Darth_Koont

Clearly Brexit was massive in Hartlepool (as it was in a great many constituencies).

So I think with Brexit (largely) out the way then it’s going to be more of a Labour vs. Conservative shootout. Shouldn’t Labour win this and increase their majority? What was the result in 2017 when Brexit was more or less parked?


Labour majority was 7k in 2017 but UKIP almost took the seat in 2015.

It will be won on turnout - I think the Reform UK vote will fall due to lack of name recognition and the loss of its' defining cause, but it'll depend on how many stay at home, how many of them are ex-Labour that will now go back and how many support Johnson.

Logically, I can't see too many ex-Labour Brexit Party supporters that still couldn't stomach voting Tory in 2019 doing so now because it's under the same leader, but there will be a few I'm sure.

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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:40 - Mar 16 with 2298 viewsPinewoodblue

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:34 - Mar 16 by StokieBlue

You may be surprised how many have forgotten the start of the pandemic now that vaccinations are proceeding better than nearly anywhere else in the world and that's going to allow us to open up over the next few months.

There could easily be a vaccine bounce with regards to the voting. Guess we will see soon enough.

SB


Big test for Labour leadership, lose Hartlepool and the knives will be out for Kier Starmer.

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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:43 - Mar 16 with 2291 viewsHerbivore

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:20 - Mar 16 by UB9Blue

Not quite sure why you say 'sadly'.... the business people I know up there do not think the Labour MP has done anything to get the local economy moving.

Be interesting to see if the impact of the Mayor of Teeside, Ben Houchen, will have an influence following the recent announcements regarding funding to the area.


I'd imagine he said 'sadly' because seeing the morally bankrupt, utterly incompetent Tory party gaining a seat despite their awfulness would be really quite depressing. Out of interest, what do you think an opposition constituency MP can really do to boost the economy of their constituency? The Tories happily threw money at marginals and red wall seats that they won, but they care a lot less about areas that are struggling that are still red.

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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:45 - Mar 16 with 2273 viewsStokieBlue

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:40 - Mar 16 by Pinewoodblue

Big test for Labour leadership, lose Hartlepool and the knives will be out for Kier Starmer.


I'm not entirely sure there is much he can do.

It'll either go with historic voting trends in which case Labour wins or there will be a huge vaccine bounce and the Tories will win and there will be nothing Starmer could do about it.

SB

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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:48 - Mar 16 with 2264 viewstractordownsouth

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:20 - Mar 16 by UB9Blue

Not quite sure why you say 'sadly'.... the business people I know up there do not think the Labour MP has done anything to get the local economy moving.

Be interesting to see if the impact of the Mayor of Teeside, Ben Houchen, will have an influence following the recent announcements regarding funding to the area.


As Herbs said, Mike Hill doesn't have a great deal of power. He has been MP there since 2017, so he's had 4 years as an opposition.

Of course there are things they can do, but that's usually on a single-issue basis likely to get cross party support (such as Carolyn Harris and her work on FOBTs) so if anyone's to blame for the lack of investment up there since 2017, it's the Tories.

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Hartlepool By-Election on 13:50 - Mar 16 with 2248 viewstractordownsouth

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:40 - Mar 16 by Pinewoodblue

Big test for Labour leadership, lose Hartlepool and the knives will be out for Kier Starmer.


It'll definitely be a big test, however I can't see it changing too many peoples' minds. Probably about 90% of the people with their knives out will be the same ones whose' knives have been out since April last year.

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Hartlepool By-Election on 14:00 - Mar 16 with 2215 viewsBlueBadger

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:23 - Mar 16 by Wallingford_Boy

Conservatives getting into a place like Hartlepool is probably the best thing that could happen to the place!


Oh man Wallers, what with your support for the Tories AND Paul Lambert you're so edgy I've cut myself just replying to you!

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Hartlepool By-Election on 14:02 - Mar 16 with 2213 viewsUB9Blue

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:48 - Mar 16 by tractordownsouth

As Herbs said, Mike Hill doesn't have a great deal of power. He has been MP there since 2017, so he's had 4 years as an opposition.

Of course there are things they can do, but that's usually on a single-issue basis likely to get cross party support (such as Carolyn Harris and her work on FOBTs) so if anyone's to blame for the lack of investment up there since 2017, it's the Tories.


I spend time in Hartlepool as I have a business interest with family in the area and at the last election the only person who we spoke to that was interested in the trying to improve the local economy was the Conservative.

Major decisions are difficult to implement but if there is no chance of things changing why bother with elections
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Hartlepool By-Election on 14:02 - Mar 16 with 2207 viewsBloomBlue

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:40 - Mar 16 by Pinewoodblue

Big test for Labour leadership, lose Hartlepool and the knives will be out for Kier Starmer.


To be fair to Starmer by-elections really don't tell you much, the Lib-Dems often do well in by-elections but then it doesn't manifest itself into a win in the same seat at an actual election.
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Hartlepool By-Election on 14:06 - Mar 16 with 2194 viewsStochesStotasBlewe

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:26 - Mar 16 by NthQldITFC

The Brexit Party are getting a little concerned about the rising popularity of a pro-EU Independent, who hails originally from France, apparently.



So that's where MonkeyAlan has gone. He won't be hanging around for long up there.

We have no village green, or a shop. It's very, very quiet. I can walk to the pub.

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Hartlepool By-Election on 14:09 - Mar 16 with 2171 viewsBlueBadger

Hartlepool By-Election on 14:06 - Mar 16 by StochesStotasBlewe

So that's where MonkeyAlan has gone. He won't be hanging around for long up there.


I'm sure we all have our fingers crossed.

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Hartlepool By-Election on 14:19 - Mar 16 with 2134 viewsWallingford_Boy

Hartlepool By-Election on 14:09 - Mar 16 by BlueBadger

I'm sure we all have our fingers crossed.


Whoosh?

RIP Sir Bobby

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Hartlepool By-Election on 14:32 - Mar 16 with 2103 viewsWD19

Looking at historical stuff, the Brexit vote seems to come from within the core Labour vote - so they will be absolutely fine. Should be a very, very comfortable win.
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Hartlepool By-Election on 14:52 - Mar 16 with 2066 viewsbournemouthblue

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:45 - Mar 16 by StokieBlue

I'm not entirely sure there is much he can do.

It'll either go with historic voting trends in which case Labour wins or there will be a huge vaccine bounce and the Tories will win and there will be nothing Starmer could do about it.

SB


I suppose it also depends how much the Northerners rate the Tories currently given the extra restrictions the North have had over the last year or so

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Hartlepool By-Election on 14:53 - Mar 16 with 2063 viewsDarth_Koont

Hartlepool By-Election on 13:50 - Mar 16 by tractordownsouth

It'll definitely be a big test, however I can't see it changing too many peoples' minds. Probably about 90% of the people with their knives out will be the same ones whose' knives have been out since April last year.


No, definitely a lot more people now. Starmer’s net favourability has tumbled even with Labour voters over the past year – and there are now even rumblings from the PLP and the commentariat who’ve given him a free ride so far.

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Hartlepool By-Election on 15:24 - Mar 16 with 2015 viewsPinewoodblue

Hartlepool By-Election on 14:53 - Mar 16 by Darth_Koont

No, definitely a lot more people now. Starmer’s net favourability has tumbled even with Labour voters over the past year – and there are now even rumblings from the PLP and the commentariat who’ve given him a free ride so far.


Think a lot of Labour party members see him as being part of the establishment.

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Hartlepool By-Election on 15:34 - Mar 16 with 1994 viewsClapham_Junction

Hartlepool By-Election on 14:32 - Mar 16 by WD19

Looking at historical stuff, the Brexit vote seems to come from within the core Labour vote - so they will be absolutely fine. Should be a very, very comfortable win.


I am less sure, but would love to be proved wrong. Hartlepool seems like the kind of place that would vote Conservative in the new culture war form of politics so I would not be surprised at all to see them win this.
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