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Election predictions 09:26 - May 6 with 1561 viewstractordownsouth

Biggest day of elections outside of the General Elections since 1973.

Wales: Labour will have net loss of 2 seats, Leanne Wood will lose her seat, UKIP will be wiped out but get more votes than Reform UK due to better name recognition. Government will be a Labour/Plaid coalition.

Scotland: SNP will narrowly miss out on a majority again, and need the Greens to prop them up. Gap between the Tories and Labour will get smaller but Douglas Ross will be LOTO.

Locals: Tories will make the most gains, Labour modest net gains, Lib Dems lose seats.

Hartlepool: I'm going to stick with a narrow Labour win (although that may be blind faith.) NIPs to lose their deposit.

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Election predictions on 09:34 - May 6 with 1023 viewsPinewoodblue

It had all been so low key, locally, difficult to judge. Postal votes will be high, as percentage of total votes cast.

We have had one election leaflet, from Lib Dems, couldn’t name any of the other candidates. No idea who is standing against Passmore for PCC.

Have to go to Holiday Inn to vote this year, is even in the parish. Wonder how many will go to Community Hall not realizing change of location.

Poll: how many changes to starting 11 v Wcombe

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Election predictions on 09:40 - May 6 with 1012 viewstractordownsouth

Oh, and Sadiq Khan to win on the second round due to Labour supporters tactically vorting Count Binface on the first preference so he can beat Laurence Fox.

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Election predictions on 09:41 - May 6 with 1008 viewsvilanovablue

I'm very pessimistic, I think the boost the Tories will get from the vaccine success will be akin to the bounce Thatcher got post-Falklands. I'm struggling to see anything other than a massacre in Hartlepool unfortunately.
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Election predictions on 09:41 - May 6 with 1004 viewsElderGrizzly

Can't see how Labour win Hartlepool with the Brexit vote no longer split.
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Election predictions on 09:42 - May 6 with 1000 viewsGlasgowBlue

Super Thursday predictions by GlasgowBlue 5 May 10:19
Hartlepool Labour or Tory? - Tory
Scotland SNP majority? - No. SNP largest party just short of a majority
Scotland Official Opposition Labour or Tory? -Tories (by just one or two seats)
West Midlands Mayor Street (Tory) or Byrne (Labour)? - Andy Street
London Mayor Khan (Labour) or Bailey (Tory)? -Sadiq Khan landslide
Wales FM Drakeford to retain or lose his seat? - Retain (just)
Local elections national share? - Tory 38% Labour 31%



“A man must be excessively stupid, as well as uncharitable, who believes that there is no virtue but on his own side, and that there are not men as honest as himself who may differ from him in political principles”.
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Election predictions on 09:45 - May 6 with 990 viewsPinewoodblue

Election predictions on 09:41 - May 6 by ElderGrizzly

Can't see how Labour win Hartlepool with the Brexit vote no longer split.


No way would Boris have gone to Hartlepool if he wasn’t certain, in his own mind, that they would win.

Has Sir Kier showed his face in the constituency?

Poll: how many changes to starting 11 v Wcombe

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Election predictions on 09:48 - May 6 with 972 viewsBlueBadger

Election predictions on 09:34 - May 6 by Pinewoodblue

It had all been so low key, locally, difficult to judge. Postal votes will be high, as percentage of total votes cast.

We have had one election leaflet, from Lib Dems, couldn’t name any of the other candidates. No idea who is standing against Passmore for PCC.

Have to go to Holiday Inn to vote this year, is even in the parish. Wonder how many will go to Community Hall not realizing change of location.


Does anybody actually KNOW what it is that the PCC's DO?

Ham>Lam
Poll: Who would it be funniest to see relegated?
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Election predictions on 09:54 - May 6 with 959 viewsBugs

For the first time ever I'm not sure I can be bothered to vote. I'm a natural Labour voter but Starmers attack on the left of the party, his lack of principles and his broken promises has infuriated me.

The next best would be the Greens, but they have their heads in the sand when it comes to climate change and the need for nuclear power to combat it.
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Election predictions on 09:54 - May 6 with 954 viewstractordownsouth

Election predictions on 09:42 - May 6 by GlasgowBlue

Super Thursday predictions by GlasgowBlue 5 May 10:19
Hartlepool Labour or Tory? - Tory
Scotland SNP majority? - No. SNP largest party just short of a majority
Scotland Official Opposition Labour or Tory? -Tories (by just one or two seats)
West Midlands Mayor Street (Tory) or Byrne (Labour)? - Andy Street
London Mayor Khan (Labour) or Bailey (Tory)? -Sadiq Khan landslide
Wales FM Drakeford to retain or lose his seat? - Retain (just)
Local elections national share? - Tory 38% Labour 31%




Apoligies, didn't notice this. This thread's bigger now so I win ;)

WIth regards to Cardiff West, Drakeford's majority will be comfortable. It's a weird seat as Neil McEvoy (Plaid candidate last time) is now running as the Propel candidate. He's quite popular locally so will split the Plaid vote, and with Drakeford inevitably increasing his vote share by being FM, he'll win by a few thousand.

I think you're right with the mayoralties though - Tees Valley will be comfortable Tory, West Midlands Tory by about 5 points. I think Labour will gain West of England, with Burnham and Khan winning by 20+ points in their races.

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Election predictions on 09:57 - May 6 with 940 viewsBeckets

Election predictions on 09:45 - May 6 by Pinewoodblue

No way would Boris have gone to Hartlepool if he wasn’t certain, in his own mind, that they would win.

Has Sir Kier showed his face in the constituency?


Winning Hartlepool will surely embolden the Tories to move even further right. I fear for the poor, sick etc over the next few years.
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Election predictions on 09:58 - May 6 with 934 viewsGlasgowBlue

Election predictions on 09:45 - May 6 by Pinewoodblue

No way would Boris have gone to Hartlepool if he wasn’t certain, in his own mind, that they would win.

Has Sir Kier showed his face in the constituency?


He did. But I don't think anyone really noticed.



as opposed to when Johnson pitched up last week.



Love him or loathe him, the fool does have that X Factor that the electorate seem to go for. It's why the Tories made him leader. With no thought on how he would govern.
[Post edited 6 May 9:59]

“A man must be excessively stupid, as well as uncharitable, who believes that there is no virtue but on his own side, and that there are not men as honest as himself who may differ from him in political principles”.
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Election predictions on 09:59 - May 6 with 927 viewstractordownsouth

Election predictions on 09:45 - May 6 by Pinewoodblue

No way would Boris have gone to Hartlepool if he wasn’t certain, in his own mind, that they would win.

Has Sir Kier showed his face in the constituency?


Johnson and Starmer have both been up there loads.

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Election predictions on 10:27 - May 6 with 868 viewsBlueNomad

Election predictions on 09:58 - May 6 by GlasgowBlue

He did. But I don't think anyone really noticed.



as opposed to when Johnson pitched up last week.



Love him or loathe him, the fool does have that X Factor that the electorate seem to go for. It's why the Tories made him leader. With no thought on how he would govern.
[Post edited 6 May 9:59]


Unfortunately he has taken advantage of the fact that we, as a nation, no longer look upon politics as something relevant. In future candidates may as well just compete on Love Island or X-Factor - there would be more interest and therefore more votes.

I'm reading a book on the Kosovo crisis by a guy who was a Sky reporter out there. As the press were preparing to go to Pristina he was approached by a big blonde guy who wrote a column for the Telegraph wondering if he might be able to get a press pass for the trip. The reporter asked him if he had a flak jacket, which he hadn't. When asked where he could get one the reporter told him he should go to the "flak jacket shop" next to the baker on the opposite side of the road. The blonde guy had to be called back when he was half way across the road.........................
[Post edited 6 May 10:32]
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Election predictions on 10:32 - May 6 with 840 viewshype313

Election predictions on 10:27 - May 6 by BlueNomad

Unfortunately he has taken advantage of the fact that we, as a nation, no longer look upon politics as something relevant. In future candidates may as well just compete on Love Island or X-Factor - there would be more interest and therefore more votes.

I'm reading a book on the Kosovo crisis by a guy who was a Sky reporter out there. As the press were preparing to go to Pristina he was approached by a big blonde guy who wrote a column for the Telegraph wondering if he might be able to get a press pass for the trip. The reporter asked him if he had a flak jacket, which he hadn't. When asked where he could get one the reporter told him he should go to the "flak jacket shop" next to the baker on the opposite side of the road. The blonde guy had to be called back when he was half way across the road.........................
[Post edited 6 May 10:32]


Boris would love to go Love Island, although think it would break the CSA Servers...

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Election predictions on 10:53 - May 6 with 765 viewsDarth_Koont

Election predictions on 10:27 - May 6 by BlueNomad

Unfortunately he has taken advantage of the fact that we, as a nation, no longer look upon politics as something relevant. In future candidates may as well just compete on Love Island or X-Factor - there would be more interest and therefore more votes.

I'm reading a book on the Kosovo crisis by a guy who was a Sky reporter out there. As the press were preparing to go to Pristina he was approached by a big blonde guy who wrote a column for the Telegraph wondering if he might be able to get a press pass for the trip. The reporter asked him if he had a flak jacket, which he hadn't. When asked where he could get one the reporter told him he should go to the "flak jacket shop" next to the baker on the opposite side of the road. The blonde guy had to be called back when he was half way across the road.........................
[Post edited 6 May 10:32]


Spot on.

Our politicians and media coverage is so dire that politics has become what politicians do. An industry, seen from the outside as grim entertainment, for them to advance their careers and status.

Instead of being a democratic and representative discussion nationally, regionally and locally about the state of society and the economy and what we can or must do to improve it.

Case in point, we have 4+ million children living in poverty and that’s an afterthought in the politicians’ and political media’s self-serving agenda. Just not fit for purpose and cruelly failing the people who most need representation.
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Election predictions on 11:19 - May 6 with 716 viewsBlueNomad

Election predictions on 10:53 - May 6 by Darth_Koont

Spot on.

Our politicians and media coverage is so dire that politics has become what politicians do. An industry, seen from the outside as grim entertainment, for them to advance their careers and status.

Instead of being a democratic and representative discussion nationally, regionally and locally about the state of society and the economy and what we can or must do to improve it.

Case in point, we have 4+ million children living in poverty and that’s an afterthought in the politicians’ and political media’s self-serving agenda. Just not fit for purpose and cruelly failing the people who most need representation.


In a previous professional life I met our current Home Secretary who was, at the time, a new candidate pending the next general election. She was happy to participate in the three way conversation until we got round to social deprivation, at which point her eyes glazed over and she switched off completely. I would never have guessed that she would become a senior minister but will never forget how marked her disinterest became.
[Post edited 6 May 11:20]
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Election predictions on 11:24 - May 6 with 702 viewsBlueNomad

Election predictions on 11:19 - May 6 by BlueNomad

In a previous professional life I met our current Home Secretary who was, at the time, a new candidate pending the next general election. She was happy to participate in the three way conversation until we got round to social deprivation, at which point her eyes glazed over and she switched off completely. I would never have guessed that she would become a senior minister but will never forget how marked her disinterest became.
[Post edited 6 May 11:20]


Just thought. Read this................

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britannia_Unchained
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Election predictions on 11:51 - May 6 with 680 viewsBlueBadger

Election predictions on 09:54 - May 6 by Bugs

For the first time ever I'm not sure I can be bothered to vote. I'm a natural Labour voter but Starmers attack on the left of the party, his lack of principles and his broken promises has infuriated me.

The next best would be the Greens, but they have their heads in the sand when it comes to climate change and the need for nuclear power to combat it.


When you say 'attack on the left' did you mean 'actually acting upon the antisemites'?

Ham>Lam
Poll: Who would it be funniest to see relegated?
Blog: From Despair to Where?

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Election predictions on 11:57 - May 6 with 670 viewsTieDyedIn95

People voting for rosettes and soundbites rather than doing research on their candidates and their actual local policies. What could go wrong? Everything as usual.

Waffle, waffle, waffle, lie, lie, lie.

Football League First Division / Premier League Champions (1): 1961–62 - Runners-up (2): 1980–81, 1981–82 Football League Second Division / EFL Championship Champions (3): 1960–61, 1967–68, 1991–92 - Play-off winners (1): 1999–2000 Football League Third Division / EFL League One Champions (2): 1953–54, 1956–57 - Southern League Champions (1): 1936–37 FA Cup Winners (1): 1977–78 - Texaco Cup Winners (1): 1972–73 UEFA Cup / UEFA Europa League Winners (1): 1980–81
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Election predictions on 12:01 - May 6 with 666 viewsSteve_M

Election predictions on 11:19 - May 6 by BlueNomad

In a previous professional life I met our current Home Secretary who was, at the time, a new candidate pending the next general election. She was happy to participate in the three way conversation until we got round to social deprivation, at which point her eyes glazed over and she switched off completely. I would never have guessed that she would become a senior minister but will never forget how marked her disinterest became.
[Post edited 6 May 11:20]


Yes, that kind of thing is telling. A total lack of empathy or understanding of the world is no barrier to the higher offices of state - indeed, even being sacked as Patel and Williamson were isn't.

At some point the electoral dividend of endless culture war bullsh1t will reduce considerably but it's far too tempting for this lot to just fall back on it.

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Election predictions on 12:18 - May 6 with 661 viewsBlueBadger

Election predictions on 11:57 - May 6 by TieDyedIn95

People voting for rosettes and soundbites rather than doing research on their candidates and their actual local policies. What could go wrong? Everything as usual.

Waffle, waffle, waffle, lie, lie, lie.


I enjoyed the local Tory candidate round here talking about boosting local services, given what the people he represents have spent the last decade doing.

Ham>Lam
Poll: Who would it be funniest to see relegated?
Blog: From Despair to Where?

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Election predictions on 12:34 - May 6 with 653 viewsParsley

Election predictions on 09:58 - May 6 by GlasgowBlue

He did. But I don't think anyone really noticed.



as opposed to when Johnson pitched up last week.



Love him or loathe him, the fool does have that X Factor that the electorate seem to go for. It's why the Tories made him leader. With no thought on how he would govern.
[Post edited 6 May 9:59]


I see these pictures as one person following the social distancing rules and one person not...
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Election predictions on 12:36 - May 6 with 648 viewsStokieBlue

Election predictions on 12:18 - May 6 by BlueBadger

I enjoyed the local Tory candidate round here talking about boosting local services, given what the people he represents have spent the last decade doing.


This is going to be very easy for the Tories to spin even though it's totally the result of a pandemic and not their policies:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57008220

SB

“You may not feel outstandingly robust, but if you are an average-sized adult you will contain within your modest frame no less than 7 X 10^18 joules of potential energy—enough to explode with the force of thirty very large hydrogen bombs, assuming you knew how to liberate it and really wished to make a point."

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Election predictions on 12:40 - May 6 with 640 viewsgordon

Election predictions on 12:36 - May 6 by StokieBlue

This is going to be very easy for the Tories to spin even though it's totally the result of a pandemic and not their policies:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57008220

SB


I saw on twitter someone saying that the next thing we have to prepare for soon is Tory Ministers saying that the UK has 'more trade agreements than any other country on Earth', if they can get something over the line with Vanuatu or somewhere.
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Election predictions on 12:43 - May 6 with 630 viewspointofblue

Should stories like this really be released on Election Day?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57008220

I can see the additional positivity influencing some people. Couldn’t it have waited until tomorrow?

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