End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... 08:29 - Jun 8 with 18923 views | itfcjoe | ....according to the Times today. Just seems so pointless to carry on as we are, when things are basically unlocked and it no doubt spreading quickly compared to how things change at June 21st. Just sack off international travel for the year, end the lockdown and get the country vaccinated. I'm just so bored of it all now, especially when such a vast %age of the population is vaccinated. | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:31 - Jun 8 with 5231 views | SomethingBlue | Unquestionably a resigning matter for the Prime Minister, then, given his actions in allowing the Indian variant to thrive. | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:32 - Jun 8 with 5231 views | Kieran_Knows | You're right, it's beyond boring now. Cooped up for the best part of 18 months and want to delay it another 2 weeks for what reason exactly? | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:32 - Jun 8 with 5225 views | Reuser_is_God | Completely pointless. Zero deaths the other day, what more do they want? | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:36 - Jun 8 with 5179 views | pointofblue |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:32 - Jun 8 by Reuser_is_God | Completely pointless. Zero deaths the other day, what more do they want? |
Just to be sure that the variant is not going to have an impact on hospital admissions and deaths. I’d prefer to have a two week delay now to ensure there isn’t a three month, more severe lockdown, further down the line because they weren’t cautious enough (which is exactly what happened with the second wave). | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:37 - Jun 8 with 5170 views | Reuser_is_God |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:36 - Jun 8 by pointofblue | Just to be sure that the variant is not going to have an impact on hospital admissions and deaths. I’d prefer to have a two week delay now to ensure there isn’t a three month, more severe lockdown, further down the line because they weren’t cautious enough (which is exactly what happened with the second wave). |
There has been more new variants reported than deaths in the past week FFS | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:37 - Jun 8 with 5165 views | footers | Oh, well if you're bored of if then that seems enough reason to me. Can't have Joe from Ipswich being bored of restrictions now, can we. | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:37 - Jun 8 with 5142 views | BrightonBlue |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:31 - Jun 8 by SomethingBlue | Unquestionably a resigning matter for the Prime Minister, then, given his actions in allowing the Indian variant to thrive. |
Er, you mean the Delta variant surely? | | | |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:39 - Jun 8 with 5134 views | Cotty |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:32 - Jun 8 by Reuser_is_God | Completely pointless. Zero deaths the other day, what more do they want? |
Cases are currently doubling every 10 days or so. It doesn't take a mathematician to figure where we're going to be in a month's time if nothing is done. If cases are rising, they are rising exponentially, and if that is the case, we need to do something fast to curb the spread. Studies have shown that you really need the second jab to have decent protection against the delta variant, it's a race against time to get second jabs into people, and currently it's clear that it's a race that we're currently losing. | | | | Login to get fewer ads
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:39 - Jun 8 with 5129 views | homer_123 |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:37 - Jun 8 by Reuser_is_God | There has been more new variants reported than deaths in the past week FFS |
This is why the decisions around the 21st June should be data driven by StokieBlue 7 Jun 2021 23:09Already there are a number of MPs and media outlets calling for an end to all restrictions regardless of the data on the 21st June. This article outlines why the decision must be driven by the data rather than some arbitrary date set months ago before the Delta variant was around.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/07/could-a-third-wave-of-covid-be-more-serious-than-uk-first-two-delta-variant [*]
Essentially it boils down to at the moment we simply don't know enough about the Delta variant to make accurate predictions.
Some specifics from the article:
- The Delta variant is likely between 30% and 100% more transmissible than the Kent variant.
- The Delta variant is possibly associated with a twofold increase in the likelihood of hospitalisation.
- Hospitalisations could reach between 6000 and 10000 per day if restrictions were fully eased.
- Calculations point to an R that is well above one across most areas of Britain at the current time.
What isn't known is the effect that vaccinations will have on any peak of cases, it will definitely help but there is a 17% reduction in efficacy after a single dose with regards to the Delta variant. There are also concerns over long-covid and the fact that there are still many adults who aren't vaccinated (often through choice of course). It's also entirely possible that the vaccines will still offer excellent protection against severe covid.
In the end given all this it would seem ridiculous to rush into anything until a lot of the variables above can be adequately assigned a value and their effects calculated.
I know it's not something any of us want to hear but realism is probably better than ignoring data and going for a date without reasoning.
SB
[*] There are links to the actual SAGE minutes and reports in the article (such as the Warwick Universiry report on the likely admissions per day based on transmissibility). | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:39 - Jun 8 with 5109 views | itfcjoe |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:31 - Jun 8 by SomethingBlue | Unquestionably a resigning matter for the Prime Minister, then, given his actions in allowing the Indian variant to thrive. |
Had to get that trade deal sorted though..... | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:39 - Jun 8 with 5109 views | pointofblue |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:37 - Jun 8 by Reuser_is_God | There has been more new variants reported than deaths in the past week FFS |
There’s always been a lag between new cases and deaths - it has been the case since the pandemic started. After reaching a low which hasn’t been hit since last summer, case numbers are now on a steady rise once again but we won’t see whether there is any impact on hospitals until near or after June 21st. Considering the absolute state they made of the autumn I’m happier that they’re taking a step now rather than bludgeoning their way through scientific advice and potentially causing further problems down the line. | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:41 - Jun 8 with 5085 views | homer_123 | Fully appreciate the frustration but it's hardly surprising. I'm sure many would be equally frustrated if we don't do something and we find ourselves in a worse position because we didn't act (though that would be par for the course for the UK approach). | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:41 - Jun 8 with 5084 views | itfcjoe |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:36 - Jun 8 by pointofblue | Just to be sure that the variant is not going to have an impact on hospital admissions and deaths. I’d prefer to have a two week delay now to ensure there isn’t a three month, more severe lockdown, further down the line because they weren’t cautious enough (which is exactly what happened with the second wave). |
The variant has been here for weeks now and hasn't had that impact. Everyone knew a further lockdown was coming last time because we never got the numbers low enough and we had no vaccine......maybe not as long or severe as it has ended up being but it's a different ball game now | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:41 - Jun 8 with 5086 views | Guthrum |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:32 - Jun 8 by Kieran_Knows | You're right, it's beyond boring now. Cooped up for the best part of 18 months and want to delay it another 2 weeks for what reason exactly? |
Covid. They're not doing this for fun. It took 25+ years of intensive vaccination to eradicate smallpox. The polio campaign has been going on for half a century. What's another two weeks in that? The problem has more been overly rushed promises of a return to normality (including the tacit encouragement of foreign holidays). | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:41 - Jun 8 with 5083 views | wkj |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:37 - Jun 8 by footers | Oh, well if you're bored of if then that seems enough reason to me. Can't have Joe from Ipswich being bored of restrictions now, can we. |
The mindset of Joe from Ipswich is symptomatic of a larger problem - Staving Boredom is more important than not actually f**king it all up again like the last two times. I am sure Eat Out To Help Out is top of the bored people's wish list right now. | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:41 - Jun 8 with 5067 views | Bluefish | How would an end to international travel help the Alpha variant? What does a person visiting from abroad spread more than the people living here with current infections? | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:43 - Jun 8 with 5051 views | Kieran_Knows |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:41 - Jun 8 by Guthrum | Covid. They're not doing this for fun. It took 25+ years of intensive vaccination to eradicate smallpox. The polio campaign has been going on for half a century. What's another two weeks in that? The problem has more been overly rushed promises of a return to normality (including the tacit encouragement of foreign holidays). |
So what do we do then? Continually spend the next god knows how long in and out of lockdowns ... because our clusterf**k of a Government cannot get the basics right? | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:43 - Jun 8 with 5041 views | footers |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:41 - Jun 8 by wkj | The mindset of Joe from Ipswich is symptomatic of a larger problem - Staving Boredom is more important than not actually f**king it all up again like the last two times. I am sure Eat Out To Help Out is top of the bored people's wish list right now. |
Indeed, my old fruit. And of course I need to go to one of the Greek islands for a week for my mental health or something. It's like some people haven't learnt a damn thing over the last 18 months. | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:44 - Jun 8 with 5016 views | wkj |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:43 - Jun 8 by footers | Indeed, my old fruit. And of course I need to go to one of the Greek islands for a week for my mental health or something. It's like some people haven't learnt a damn thing over the last 18 months. |
In before "Acceptable Fatality Levels" starts trending. | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:45 - Jun 8 with 5013 views | itfcjoe |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:41 - Jun 8 by Bluefish | How would an end to international travel help the Alpha variant? What does a person visiting from abroad spread more than the people living here with current infections? |
Because we are very unlikely to get any further mutations without internatinonal travel - especially when we have a Government that is happy to leave countries on the travel list when they have a known mutation (i.e. India) just to try and sort out a visit with their Leader. We can't trust the Government to make the right decisions on International Travel, so need a sledgehammer to crack a nut. | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:46 - Jun 8 with 4981 views | Cotty |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:41 - Jun 8 by itfcjoe | The variant has been here for weeks now and hasn't had that impact. Everyone knew a further lockdown was coming last time because we never got the numbers low enough and we had no vaccine......maybe not as long or severe as it has ended up being but it's a different ball game now |
Joe, you're missing the point here I'm afraid. The variant has been here for a while, and it's gone from being a handful of cases a few weeks ago to being by far and away the dominant cause of disease. You need to look at the trajectory, not the current numbers. The trajectory is cases doubling in possibly even single digit number of days. If only those who have had 2 jabs have a decent level of protection, as is hypothesised, then we could be in a world of pain in a very short space of time. | | | |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:49 - Jun 8 with 4925 views | TractorCam |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:36 - Jun 8 by pointofblue | Just to be sure that the variant is not going to have an impact on hospital admissions and deaths. I’d prefer to have a two week delay now to ensure there isn’t a three month, more severe lockdown, further down the line because they weren’t cautious enough (which is exactly what happened with the second wave). |
Fair enough. What if that 2 weeks comes and then they need to do it for another 2 weeks? | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:49 - Jun 8 with 4909 views | Bluefish |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:45 - Jun 8 by itfcjoe | Because we are very unlikely to get any further mutations without internatinonal travel - especially when we have a Government that is happy to leave countries on the travel list when they have a known mutation (i.e. India) just to try and sort out a visit with their Leader. We can't trust the Government to make the right decisions on International Travel, so need a sledgehammer to crack a nut. |
The virus us here so can mutate at any time. It doesn't just come from foreigners as the papers like to push. The country would ground to a halt pretty quick without international travel. | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:53 - Jun 8 with 4875 views | hype313 |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:36 - Jun 8 by pointofblue | Just to be sure that the variant is not going to have an impact on hospital admissions and deaths. I’d prefer to have a two week delay now to ensure there isn’t a three month, more severe lockdown, further down the line because they weren’t cautious enough (which is exactly what happened with the second wave). |
The India Variant was first detected in the UK in April. We've had significant reopening as part of the Road Map since then. But the number of deaths and hospitalisations is continuing to fall. I genuinely don't understand what the current panic is. | |
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End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:53 - Jun 8 with 4869 views | itfcjoe |
End of lockdown being pushed back 2 weeks... on 08:46 - Jun 8 by Cotty | Joe, you're missing the point here I'm afraid. The variant has been here for a while, and it's gone from being a handful of cases a few weeks ago to being by far and away the dominant cause of disease. You need to look at the trajectory, not the current numbers. The trajectory is cases doubling in possibly even single digit number of days. If only those who have had 2 jabs have a decent level of protection, as is hypothesised, then we could be in a world of pain in a very short space of time. |
But as things stand, with the lockdown as relaxed as it is now - i.e. pubs open, restuarants, shops, gyms, and everything else you can think of......what is being done to actually *stop* the variant as it is? Does the further unlocking speed it up, probably but if it is out of control in the current restrictions then the doubling is going to continue in single figure days as it is......and all the while we are happy to let people travel around the world, and into the country if they fancy a holiday. Seems madness to me to do it that way, and a big part of the reason we are where we are. But in simple terms, how does extending what we are doing, that isn't working anyway, make much difference? | |
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