| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions 08:10 - Jun 14 with 3592 views | homer_123 |
though the fact is that we haven't really been restricted for a while now.
Lots of talk now about getting the 40s and 50s through the second jab as soon as possible as only one dose of AZ is offering around 33% protection against the Delta variant (though protection against hospitalisation and serious illness is a lot higher with 1 dose). Back on the 14th of May the JVCI suggested bringing forward the AZ jab to 8 weeks for those in Cohort 9 and under, now there are discussions underway to bring that forward for Cohorts 10 and above.
It's proving a grimly fascinating virus, to see two considerable leaps (via variants) in 18 months has surprised a lot of scientists:
"This virus has surprised us a lot. It is beyond anything we feared," said Dr Aris Katzourakis, who studies viral evolution at the University of Oxford. "The fact it has happened twice in 18 months, two lineages (Alpha and then Delta) each 50% more transmissible is a phenomenal amount of change."
That said, there are typically trade offs:
There is also the concept of evolutionary trade-offs - in order to become better at one thing you often get worse at something else. The fastest vaccination programme in history will give the virus a different hurdle to overcome and squeeze it in another evolutionary direction.
"It is quite possible that changes in the virus that make it better at avoiding vaccines could end up compromising its ability to transmit in an absolute sense," said Dr Katzourakis.
The pace the virus is working at is quite a rate - even though we are in the summer, my gut feel is we'll need to step back into further restrictions going forward to keep on top here in the UK.
Whilst vaccine uptake in the over 50s is around 95%, we are still looking at an awfully large number of people in this bracket that have had no vaccination - and therefore the risk to that group is significantly higher, so something we need to be very mindful of.
A four week delay isn't really a hardship to see how this pans out. Though I suspect we'll find things starting to tighten again before then. [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 9:19]
|  |
| |  |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 08:19 - Jun 14 with 2534 views | Guthrum |
From what I've heard, wouldn't be at all surprised to see further restrictions later in the summer. At the moment, things are difficult to forecast as the numbers of hospitalisations and fatalities are still relatively low. Altho, of course, they lag up to a fortnight behind new infections, which are rising sharply.
Much depends upon how effective the vaccines are in reducing the severity of Delta-variant cases (which there is some tentative evidence for), as that will avoid the strain on medical facilities and thus the need for lockdowns. |  |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 08:21 - Jun 14 with 2533 views | pointofblue |
My problem is they’re saying a delay to easing for four weeks rather than a review in four weeks. If the numbers pan out badly they may need to push back again. |  |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 08:25 - Jun 14 with 2513 views | itfcjoe |
It seems utterly pointless to me, what we are doing now isn't slowing the virus, so either just unlock further and elt it spread as it is, or lockdown tighter to slow it.
But it does feel there needs to be something done on a regional basis - in the East of England hospital admissions are down, vaccine take up is high and there are barely any cases here full stop.
I can see some civil disobedience over this, and can understand it - it does feel a bit have's v have not's - some people have enjoyed what lockdown has brought to them. Those with good jobs, nice living spaces, previous commutes etc.........and there seems to be a lack of empathy from those in that position. |  |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 08:26 - Jun 14 with 2491 views | Freddies_Ears |
A summer of "freedom" could well lead to an autumn of relatively severe restrictions. But perhaps many would be happy to take that chance? | | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 08:34 - Jun 14 with 2453 views | pointofblue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 08:25 - Jun 14 by itfcjoe |
It seems utterly pointless to me, what we are doing now isn't slowing the virus, so either just unlock further and elt it spread as it is, or lockdown tighter to slow it.
But it does feel there needs to be something done on a regional basis - in the East of England hospital admissions are down, vaccine take up is high and there are barely any cases here full stop.
I can see some civil disobedience over this, and can understand it - it does feel a bit have's v have not's - some people have enjoyed what lockdown has brought to them. Those with good jobs, nice living spaces, previous commutes etc.........and there seems to be a lack of empathy from those in that position. |
That’s the interesting thing - what do we do if hospitalisations and deaths do increase over the next month? Instead of unlocking we’d be looking at increasing restrictions once again.
At the moment we’re in a holding pattern because the government and SAGE want to see if there is still a strong link between cases and hospitalisations or whether this has been weakened by the vaccines. [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 8:34]
| |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:04 - Jun 14 with 2360 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 08:26 - Jun 14 by Freddies_Ears |
A summer of "freedom" could well lead to an autumn of relatively severe restrictions. But perhaps many would be happy to take that chance? |
If we took that approach restrictions would never be removed. Government position is a false one, they have this idea that it would be wrong to ease restrictions too early they even claim they will be lifted for good.
The prime objective has always been to protect the NHS, avoid overload. We have to accept Covid is here for the foreseeable so let’s fund the NHS accordingly.
We need to move away from the one size fits all approach and only impose restrictions in areas where it is necessary, and not just in a geographical sense. Those who put society at risk because they refuse vaccine, or act in inappropriate ways need to have their activities curtailed. [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 9:06]
|  |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:09 - Jun 14 with 2308 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 08:25 - Jun 14 by itfcjoe |
It seems utterly pointless to me, what we are doing now isn't slowing the virus, so either just unlock further and elt it spread as it is, or lockdown tighter to slow it.
But it does feel there needs to be something done on a regional basis - in the East of England hospital admissions are down, vaccine take up is high and there are barely any cases here full stop.
I can see some civil disobedience over this, and can understand it - it does feel a bit have's v have not's - some people have enjoyed what lockdown has brought to them. Those with good jobs, nice living spaces, previous commutes etc.........and there seems to be a lack of empathy from those in that position. |
I don't think it's utterly pointless, any delay is for the purpose of collecting more data in order to make an informed choice and to get a larger percentage of the population double vaccinated.
Making decisions based on false or limited data is always an issue and it has been during C19. The government were rightly criticised for making decisions without the data or going against the data yet now you want them to make a decision without a good sized data set.
I'm not one to defend the government but it's hard to see what you expect them to do, whatever approach they take seems to get criticised.
With regards to your last paragraph, there is definitely some truth in it and I know people who want to WFH forever (which is totally unrealistic for them) but as it stands people aren't restricted to their homes, they can meet friends, they can have people stay over, they can go to restaurants etc. I don't think the current restrictions are really hugely restrictive, especially when the weather is nice like at the moment.
I suspect people are going to be unhappier if we don't act sensibly now and come August there are no fans at football again.
SB [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 9:16]
|  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:16 - Jun 14 with 2261 views | hype313 |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:09 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
I don't think it's utterly pointless, any delay is for the purpose of collecting more data in order to make an informed choice and to get a larger percentage of the population double vaccinated.
Making decisions based on false or limited data is always an issue and it has been during C19. The government were rightly criticised for making decisions without the data or going against the data yet now you want them to make a decision without a good sized data set.
I'm not one to defend the government but it's hard to see what you expect them to do, whatever approach they take seems to get criticised.
With regards to your last paragraph, there is definitely some truth in it and I know people who want to WFH forever (which is totally unrealistic for them) but as it stands people aren't restricted to their homes, they can meet friends, they can have people stay over, they can go to restaurants etc. I don't think the current restrictions are really hugely restrictive, especially when the weather is nice like at the moment.
I suspect people are going to be unhappier if we don't act sensibly now and come August there are no fans at football again.
SB [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 9:16]
|
If we do face a situation where no fans are allowed back in come August, by which time everyone over 18 will have had both jabs, then we really are back to square one. |  |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:17 - Jun 14 with 2249 views | bluelagos |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 08:25 - Jun 14 by itfcjoe |
It seems utterly pointless to me, what we are doing now isn't slowing the virus, so either just unlock further and elt it spread as it is, or lockdown tighter to slow it.
But it does feel there needs to be something done on a regional basis - in the East of England hospital admissions are down, vaccine take up is high and there are barely any cases here full stop.
I can see some civil disobedience over this, and can understand it - it does feel a bit have's v have not's - some people have enjoyed what lockdown has brought to them. Those with good jobs, nice living spaces, previous commutes etc.........and there seems to be a lack of empathy from those in that position. |
By civil disobedience do you mean widespread ignoring of the rules Joe? I don't think there's much doubt that many people are slipping back in terms of social distancing.
But the key thing here is that the more dangerous (in terms of risk of spread) time spent indoors (say at gigs / nightclubs or on packed tubes) is still much reduced compared to normal. And by staying as/is we get another 10m fully protected in those 4 weeks.
Thereafter - it really is a stark choice - let it rip, get on with our lives and accept that there will be some people getting ill / dying - or continue forever without full stadia / festivals / concerts etc. If are to await the elimination of CV before we fully open up, then I doubt anyone on here will be watching football in a full stadium ever again.
There comes a point where there are an 'acceptable number of deaths' compared to living our lives in full. That sounds harsh and people will have different opinions, but is the reality of the choices we make. We make those choices all the time.
If we didn't, we would not only ban motorbiking, but we would ban cycling, horse riding, flying, football, rugby, - any activity that carries a risk of injury and/or death. But we don't, because society does have "an acceptable risk" mindset for lots and lots of different things.
And I know the term has been throw about before and upsets lots of people. And am not wishing to upset anyone, but not talking about the risks of opening up vs the gains is to simply bury your head in the sand, as uncomfortable a topic as it is to discuss.
4 more weeks is manageable, but when you get to the point where every vulnerable person is protected (assuming the vaccine works) then surely it's time to get on with opening up? [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 9:26]
|  |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:20 - Jun 14 with 2233 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 08:25 - Jun 14 by itfcjoe |
It seems utterly pointless to me, what we are doing now isn't slowing the virus, so either just unlock further and elt it spread as it is, or lockdown tighter to slow it.
But it does feel there needs to be something done on a regional basis - in the East of England hospital admissions are down, vaccine take up is high and there are barely any cases here full stop.
I can see some civil disobedience over this, and can understand it - it does feel a bit have's v have not's - some people have enjoyed what lockdown has brought to them. Those with good jobs, nice living spaces, previous commutes etc.........and there seems to be a lack of empathy from those in that position. |
Funny isn't it that anyone with more than 14k in savings gets zero universal credit yet second and third property owners have been given a boost to their savings and had access to properties 4 and 5 made easier. And then there is the negligible support for the low waged being told to self isolate.
Pitchforks globally are being dusted off! |  |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:21 - Jun 14 with 2217 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:16 - Jun 14 by hype313 |
If we do face a situation where no fans are allowed back in come August, by which time everyone over 18 will have had both jabs, then we really are back to square one. |
Indeed and I certainly don't expect that to be the case, it was more that if we open up and then the Delta variant cases rocket mainly due to no/single vaccinations then restrictions would be pushed back to July/August and it would affect things like the new season.
Better to collect all the data now and get as many as possible double-dosed and then move back to a more normal life without the possibility of more lockdowns (assuming no horrific mutation in the virus).
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
| |
| Get the vaccine, get a reward.... on 09:31 - Jun 14 with 2146 views | Bloots |
....we should go down the U.S. route for the reluctants, the sceptics, and in some cases (that I know of) the lazy sods that can't be bothered.
They are offering monthly $1m lottery entry, free sports tickets, free Uber, free booze, etc etc.
We seem to be trying to promote the vaccine by appealing to our population's "better nature", when a lot of them don't have one. |  |
| TWTD Leadership Group/Elite Level Supporter/Anti-Bullying Crusader |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:32 - Jun 14 with 2136 views | SomethingBlue |
Maybe. But in any case — it beggars belief for me that we aren't seeing calls for Johnson to resign from every front page, every broadcast outlet and every side of the political spectrum. He has done this. What am I missing? | |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:33 - Jun 14 with 2124 views | DanTheMan |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:21 - Jun 14 by StokieBlue |
Indeed and I certainly don't expect that to be the case, it was more that if we open up and then the Delta variant cases rocket mainly due to no/single vaccinations then restrictions would be pushed back to July/August and it would affect things like the new season.
Better to collect all the data now and get as many as possible double-dosed and then move back to a more normal life without the possibility of more lockdowns (assuming no horrific mutation in the virus).
SB |
And of course letting it rip through a population increases the likelihood of even more variants. |  |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:33 - Jun 14 with 2122 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 08:34 - Jun 14 by pointofblue |
That’s the interesting thing - what do we do if hospitalisations and deaths do increase over the next month? Instead of unlocking we’d be looking at increasing restrictions once again.
At the moment we’re in a holding pattern because the government and SAGE want to see if there is still a strong link between cases and hospitalisations or whether this has been weakened by the vaccines. [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 8:34]
|
Depending whose baseline you use, hospitalisations are going up between 19% and 40% a week already. Deaths are a tiny fraction, which appears to show a break of the link between hospitalisations and deaths.
Most of those in hospital in the last 2 weeks are 25-44 age group who only have 1 dose or are unvaccinated.
That's why they are delaying to try and get as many vaccinated with 2nd doses as possible. 10 - 12 million doses in the next 4 weeks is the plan.
Johnson boxed himself into a corner by saying the roadmap was irreversible, when any sensible leader would have truly been led by data, not dates.
And we'll still see Johnson release some restrictions today just to placate the CRG. |  | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:36 - Jun 14 with 2103 views | StokieBlue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:33 - Jun 14 by DanTheMan |
And of course letting it rip through a population increases the likelihood of even more variants. |
You are of course correct that it could happen but statistically any mutations are far more likely to happen outside the UK given the global distribution of cases.
The issue here is that we have a porous immigration system with regards to C19 so any mutations are likely to get in anyway.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:47 - Jun 14 with 2009 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:33 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
Depending whose baseline you use, hospitalisations are going up between 19% and 40% a week already. Deaths are a tiny fraction, which appears to show a break of the link between hospitalisations and deaths.
Most of those in hospital in the last 2 weeks are 25-44 age group who only have 1 dose or are unvaccinated.
That's why they are delaying to try and get as many vaccinated with 2nd doses as possible. 10 - 12 million doses in the next 4 weeks is the plan.
Johnson boxed himself into a corner by saying the roadmap was irreversible, when any sensible leader would have truly been led by data, not dates.
And we'll still see Johnson release some restrictions today just to placate the CRG. |
Biggest increase in new cases is in the Teens-30 age group. They won’t be fully vaccinated in four weeks time so, if that continues, do we put things back another four weeks?
Road map may be seen as irreversible but when the situation changes in the autumn we will have a new road map. | |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:49 - Jun 14 with 1992 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:47 - Jun 14 by Pinewoodblue |
Biggest increase in new cases is in the Teens-30 age group. They won’t be fully vaccinated in four weeks time so, if that continues, do we put things back another four weeks?
Road map may be seen as irreversible but when the situation changes in the autumn we will have a new road map. |
Agree, biggest increase in cases is that level but that was why I was careful to separate the hospitalisations.
We will see cases forever more, but it is how many end up in hospital dictates our way out of this. | | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:59 - Jun 14 with 1943 views | JammyDodgerrr |
Just finally glad to see them actually doing the right thing, for once. Rather than ploughing ahead ignorantly. |  |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 10:04 - Jun 14 with 1929 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:49 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
Agree, biggest increase in cases is that level but that was why I was careful to separate the hospitalisations.
We will see cases forever more, but it is how many end up in hospital dictates our way out of this. |
Nearly right. If Covid is here long term the NHS needs to be appropriately funded to cope.
We shouldn’t forget that every time we ease restrictions it is going to have an impact on number of new cases. We have to live with it, in a sensible way, not hide from it. | |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 10:08 - Jun 14 with 1914 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 10:04 - Jun 14 by Pinewoodblue |
Nearly right. If Covid is here long term the NHS needs to be appropriately funded to cope.
We shouldn’t forget that every time we ease restrictions it is going to have an impact on number of new cases. We have to live with it, in a sensible way, not hide from it. |
Covid is here longer term, but we need to get the vaccine rolled out as a 'normal programme' as we do with flu.
Then if we get hospitalisations and deaths down to levels accepted for something like that, that is how we live with it.
Zero Covid is impossible in a normal working economy. [Post edited 14 Jun 2021 10:08]
| | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 10:18 - Jun 14 with 1838 views | Sarge |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:33 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
Depending whose baseline you use, hospitalisations are going up between 19% and 40% a week already. Deaths are a tiny fraction, which appears to show a break of the link between hospitalisations and deaths.
Most of those in hospital in the last 2 weeks are 25-44 age group who only have 1 dose or are unvaccinated.
That's why they are delaying to try and get as many vaccinated with 2nd doses as possible. 10 - 12 million doses in the next 4 weeks is the plan.
Johnson boxed himself into a corner by saying the roadmap was irreversible, when any sensible leader would have truly been led by data, not dates.
And we'll still see Johnson release some restrictions today just to placate the CRG. |
Re your last line, any idea which ones? I have some that I’m hoping for but they are probably the least likely. | | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 10:23 - Jun 14 with 1807 views | ThisIsMyUsername |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 08:19 - Jun 14 by Guthrum |
From what I've heard, wouldn't be at all surprised to see further restrictions later in the summer. At the moment, things are difficult to forecast as the numbers of hospitalisations and fatalities are still relatively low. Altho, of course, they lag up to a fortnight behind new infections, which are rising sharply.
Much depends upon how effective the vaccines are in reducing the severity of Delta-variant cases (which there is some tentative evidence for), as that will avoid the strain on medical facilities and thus the need for lockdowns. |
Drag it out/increase restrictions all summer and then head straight into another full-on winter lockdown probably. |  |
| |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 10:31 - Jun 14 with 1738 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 10:18 - Jun 14 by Sarge |
Re your last line, any idea which ones? I have some that I’m hoping for but they are probably the least likely. |
There is some briefing in the media that he will increase numbers allowed at weddings/funerals | | | |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 11:37 - Jun 14 with 1622 views | bluelady |
| Covid - very sensible to delay easing of restrictions on 09:33 - Jun 14 by ElderGrizzly |
Depending whose baseline you use, hospitalisations are going up between 19% and 40% a week already. Deaths are a tiny fraction, which appears to show a break of the link between hospitalisations and deaths.
Most of those in hospital in the last 2 weeks are 25-44 age group who only have 1 dose or are unvaccinated.
That's why they are delaying to try and get as many vaccinated with 2nd doses as possible. 10 - 12 million doses in the next 4 weeks is the plan.
Johnson boxed himself into a corner by saying the roadmap was irreversible, when any sensible leader would have truly been led by data, not dates.
And we'll still see Johnson release some restrictions today just to placate the CRG. |
what you also have to remember is that those in hospital have tested positive for covid they have not necessarily entered hospital due to covid, this is where the stats are pretty useless. of course those testing positive in hospital will go up as its doing so in the general population. what I want to see is what is the increase (if any) of those being taken to hospital DUE to covid |  | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
