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Excess Deaths in 2020 vs Ave 2015-2019 17:27 - Jun 22 with 797 viewsmutters

Not sure if this has been shared but during 2020 there were approximately an additional 85k more death in 2020 than in the average of the previous 5 year period.

The number of deaths that are assigned to Covid so far is approx 150k, which will be the cause of death on the certificate, but some of these people would have passed anyway. The numbers only run till early Jan 2021, however, the mortality rate is less this year than last so the true impact of covid will be less than the 150k I imagine.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

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Excess Deaths in 2020 vs Ave 2015-2019 on 17:33 - Jun 22 with 749 viewsArnoldMoorhen

Yes, a lot less traffic on the roads, so fewer road deaths etc.

Less old people out and about in the winter, so fewer falls leading to fractures leading to time in hospital leading to gradual decline and cardio-respiratory failure. You always get a glut of deaths about 5 to 8 weeks after it was icy: this process takes a while.

So 150k Covid deaths, but the increase in total deaths didn't increase by that amount.
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Excess Deaths in 2020 vs Ave 2015-2019 on 17:47 - Jun 22 with 682 viewsclive_baker

Comparing Covid deaths through an 18 month period to excess deaths for a 12 month period isn’t very useful. On the 4th Jan 2021 the U.K. had reported 76k deaths from Covid which I think we can assume are all 2020 related, vs 85k excess deaths per your data, so however it’s cut the deaths attributed to Covid in this country are there or thereabouts accurate I would say.

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Excess Deaths in 2020 vs Ave 2015-2019 on 18:04 - Jun 22 with 635 viewsmutters

Excess Deaths in 2020 vs Ave 2015-2019 on 17:47 - Jun 22 by clive_baker

Comparing Covid deaths through an 18 month period to excess deaths for a 12 month period isn’t very useful. On the 4th Jan 2021 the U.K. had reported 76k deaths from Covid which I think we can assume are all 2020 related, vs 85k excess deaths per your data, so however it’s cut the deaths attributed to Covid in this country are there or thereabouts accurate I would say.


No, I agree, hence my last paragraph,. I just can't see how this year there has been a similar amount of deaths from covid compared to the whole of last year? Especially with the falling mortality rate.

I am just trying to understand the true impact of Covid (death rate) by slicing through all these numbers. It's bloody hard work to get a clear number because, for example, just saying somebody died of covid does mask the fact that that said person already had had 3 strokes and was on the edge already.

I have too much time on my hands clearly at the moment!

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Excess Deaths in 2020 vs Ave 2015-2019 on 18:05 - Jun 22 with 632 viewsmutters

Excess Deaths in 2020 vs Ave 2015-2019 on 17:33 - Jun 22 by ArnoldMoorhen

Yes, a lot less traffic on the roads, so fewer road deaths etc.

Less old people out and about in the winter, so fewer falls leading to fractures leading to time in hospital leading to gradual decline and cardio-respiratory failure. You always get a glut of deaths about 5 to 8 weeks after it was icy: this process takes a while.

So 150k Covid deaths, but the increase in total deaths didn't increase by that amount.


Some excellent points, thank you

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Excess Deaths in 2020 vs Ave 2015-2019 on 18:13 - Jun 22 with 612 viewsGuthrum

The data for the previous five years includes one particularly bad 'Flu season (can't remember which year, off the top of my head), which will bump up that average and reduce the apparent effect of Covid.

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Excess Deaths in 2020 vs Ave 2015-2019 on 18:17 - Jun 22 with 595 viewspositivity

Excess Deaths in 2020 vs Ave 2015-2019 on 18:05 - Jun 22 by mutters

Some excellent points, thank you


it's incredibly difficult to put a clean figure on it:-

much less flu & infectious diseases due to the lockdown/masks
more mental health issues/suicides (anecdotally)
more cancer etc cases missed due to the nhs being overloaded
less pollution and co2 emissions in the lockdown

it'll be years till we get a clear picture, the only thing we can be sure of is, we'd have had less deaths if we had a competent leadership!

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Excess Deaths in 2020 vs Ave 2015-2019 on 18:22 - Jun 22 with 565 viewsGuthrum

Excess Deaths in 2020 vs Ave 2015-2019 on 18:04 - Jun 22 by mutters

No, I agree, hence my last paragraph,. I just can't see how this year there has been a similar amount of deaths from covid compared to the whole of last year? Especially with the falling mortality rate.

I am just trying to understand the true impact of Covid (death rate) by slicing through all these numbers. It's bloody hard work to get a clear number because, for example, just saying somebody died of covid does mask the fact that that said person already had had 3 strokes and was on the edge already.

I have too much time on my hands clearly at the moment!


There was a major peak in deaths, exceeding that in the late spring of 2020, beginning in December and really ramping up over the New Year and into January and February.

The mortality rate was very low between the latter half of June 2020 and the start of October.

The October to December increased rates were still relatively moderate compared with the peaks.

Between those factors, it's not surprising that the 2020 total is not far different to that of 2021 so far.

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