| Covid cases dropping 16:09 - Sep 13 with 6590 views | Trequartista |
The opposite of what was predicted when schools returned even with increased testing. Just as they dropped dramatically when we lifted restrictions (100k new cases a day “inevitable” they said).
No one has a clue what is happening do they? |  |
| |  |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:10 - Sep 13 with 3326 views | J2BLUE |
As much as I would love to believe it, it might be a little early to say that. |  |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:15 - Sep 13 with 3286 views | Trequartista |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:10 - Sep 13 by J2BLUE |
As much as I would love to believe it, it might be a little early to say that. |
I’m not saying they are dropping for good, because I can predict the future no better than anyone else, but the week on week total is now down such have been the size of the reductions of the last three days (>25% today) so I think we will see at least a whole week, and then after that nobody knows | |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:17 - Sep 13 with 3271 views | positivity |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:10 - Sep 13 by J2BLUE |
As much as I would love to believe it, it might be a little early to say that. |
i don't think the schoolkids have been back long enough in england to count in the figures yet (at least not around here), usually 7-10 days incubation time i believe. |  |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:21 - Sep 13 with 3244 views | WilbrahamBlue |
no one has a crystal ball, even the qualified.
You've jumped the gun in terms of up-turn related to schools, refer to last September where it was the third week when things got steeper.
combine this with ALOT of return-to-office adults compared to September last year also.
Plenty of potential..... | | | |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:22 - Sep 13 with 3235 views | Trequartista |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:17 - Sep 13 by positivity |
i don't think the schoolkids have been back long enough in england to count in the figures yet (at least not around here), usually 7-10 days incubation time i believe. |
Delta variant has a shorter time - 4 days I think | |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:26 - Sep 13 with 3216 views | EJP |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:17 - Sep 13 by positivity |
i don't think the schoolkids have been back long enough in england to count in the figures yet (at least not around here), usually 7-10 days incubation time i believe. |
Ours have been back a week - 3 cases so far in one year group of under 10s (one class per year group, so 10% of class are currently known to be positive) |  | | |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:28 - Sep 13 with 3201 views | Trequartista |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:21 - Sep 13 by WilbrahamBlue |
no one has a crystal ball, even the qualified.
You've jumped the gun in terms of up-turn related to schools, refer to last September where it was the third week when things got steeper.
combine this with ALOT of return-to-office adults compared to September last year also.
Plenty of potential..... |
Do we know if that 3rd week uptick had anything to do with schools? It’s all correlation and no causation. What is the cause of this sudden downturn after weeks of slow increases? No one has a crystal ball so why are told rises are inevitable? | |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:29 - Sep 13 with 3194 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:17 - Sep 13 by positivity |
i don't think the schoolkids have been back long enough in england to count in the figures yet (at least not around here), usually 7-10 days incubation time i believe. |
Cases in Scotland doubled the day the kids went back and continued to do so over the next two weeks.
I was assured by Gordon, Herbie and co that the only reason for the doubling of cases was due to the kids being back. Cases aren't dropping in Scotland and they are at an all time peak.
Cases in England went up by 5 - 7,000 a day as soon as the kids went back, a increase of less than 20%. That day to day increase continued for about a week. Since then the cases have dropped on the previous week's figures for 5 consecutive days.
Early days yet, but England's approach regarding 'freedom day' seems far more sensible than that taken in Scotland, where the Scottish Government relaxed everything in the same week the kids went back and the warmer summer weather ended. [Post edited 13 Sep 2021 16:31]
|  |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| Covid cases dropping on 16:34 - Sep 13 with 3165 views | Steve_M |
Do you have the link to that data please, over what timeframe? Thanks. Definitely good news if so, just not sure which data you are basing that on.
Winter and indoor socialising might change things, as would waning vaccine immunity. |  |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:35 - Sep 13 with 3160 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:26 - Sep 13 by EJP |
Ours have been back a week - 3 cases so far in one year group of under 10s (one class per year group, so 10% of class are currently known to be positive) |
Ours have been back a week too, and we've had a letter from one school cancelling stuff as they're short on teachers already and the eldest came back to day and said a couple of classmates are off with it.
Let's see. Schools look likely to see a rise in cases based on early signs here. What impact that would have on overall cases, I've no idea. Some recent modelling work for Wales suggests we may be reaching close enough to herd immunity to start to see sustained decline in cases. I hope that's the case. |  |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:35 - Sep 13 with 3155 views | WD19 |
Last week was lovely and everyone was outside. |  | | |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:35 - Sep 13 with 3156 views | vilanovablue |
Hospitalisations going up and Monday is always a lag day in reporting terms.
Still think it is to early to make any big predictions. |  | | |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:36 - Sep 13 with 3146 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:34 - Sep 13 by Steve_M |
Do you have the link to that data please, over what timeframe? Thanks. Definitely good news if so, just not sure which data you are basing that on.
Winter and indoor socialising might change things, as would waning vaccine immunity. |
The cold weather is going to see a rise in cases. No doubt. | |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:37 - Sep 13 with 3138 views | borge |
I think they said this wave would be 'lumpy' all along, so whilst we'd all expect an upturn with the schools having returned, the unexpected is not to be unexpected....! | | | |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:38 - Sep 13 with 3135 views | Lightworker |
Not any great surprise as it has been shown in previous waves that Schools are not a huge driver of infections.
What we can be sure of is that as we move into Autumn/Winter cases will inevitably go up as they do every year with seasonal respiratory viruses. |  | | |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:52 - Sep 13 with 3068 views | Fixed_It |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:22 - Sep 13 by Trequartista |
Delta variant has a shorter time - 4 days I think |
That would tally with me. 4 of us went out for a meal on the Friday, three of us showing symptoms by the Tuesday/Wednesday and subsequently tested positive. |  |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 17:01 - Sep 13 with 3039 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:38 - Sep 13 by Lightworker |
Not any great surprise as it has been shown in previous waves that Schools are not a huge driver of infections.
What we can be sure of is that as we move into Autumn/Winter cases will inevitably go up as they do every year with seasonal respiratory viruses. |
I know there's a North America study by Duke university that's been widely reported to support the claim that schools are safe, but what's missing is the acknowledgment that study mostly dealt with schools applying strict controls (2 m distancing, masks, eating outdoors, no talking rule when maskless, etc). We've dropped all controls and we also have a more transmissible variant in children and young adults now, so I'm not convinced those earlier findings are particularly relevant to what's happening now in the UK.
I'm not dismissing it in terms of its relevance in time and space, just not convinced it can be used to inform policy here and now.
Anecdotally, schools have been an important source of infections in this part of the world. Pretty much everyone I know who's had the virus caught it from either their kids who caught it in school or from hospital (ok, there'll be positive bias there as most of our friends have kids and we're in the same social circle; and anecdotal evidence is hardly reliable of patterns). | |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 18:23 - Sep 13 with 2853 views | tonybied |
4 days my daughter was back at school before she caught it and as of this morning there are 50 pupils just in her year alone that have tested positive. I know it's just one year in one school but it's worrying to say the least! |  | | |
| Covid cases dropping on 18:55 - Sep 13 with 2772 views | Guthrum |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:36 - Sep 13 by GlasgowBlue |
The cold weather is going to see a rise in cases. No doubt. |
Early research showed there was no significant correlation between temperature fluctuations and Covid infection rates.
It is thought quite likely there is a seasonal factor, but that is not quite the same thing. Indeed, some people I've spoken to are predicting an upsurge in the autumn on that basis. [Post edited 13 Sep 2021 18:55]
|  |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 18:58 - Sep 13 with 2765 views | BlueBadger |
Attended my first covid-related paediatric cardiac arrest call last night. It was not a massive barrel of laughs.
Oh, and we're running on higher daily deaths at the moment than we were 12 months ago. |  |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 18:59 - Sep 13 with 2757 views | Trequartista |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:34 - Sep 13 by Steve_M |
Do you have the link to that data please, over what timeframe? Thanks. Definitely good news if so, just not sure which data you are basing that on.
Winter and indoor socialising might change things, as would waning vaccine immunity. |
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ | |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 18:59 - Sep 13 with 2767 views | chicoazul |
On More or Less at R4 they had an expert on who was faced with their previous predictions on the same show and had basically got everything wrong on cases deaths and hospitalisations, and she wasn’t the only one. The only conclusion they were able to draw is nobody knows anything and there are no reliable models. The cassandras of TWTD were wrong again in other words. |  |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 19:01 - Sep 13 with 2748 views | Trequartista |
| Covid cases dropping on 18:58 - Sep 13 by BlueBadger |
Attended my first covid-related paediatric cardiac arrest call last night. It was not a massive barrel of laughs.
Oh, and we're running on higher daily deaths at the moment than we were 12 months ago. |
Yes cases have been rising steadily until this week, so with the lag, hospitilisations are still increasing. Fingers crossed the drop in cases continues and has the corresponding effect on hospital cases after the lag. | |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 19:03 - Sep 13 with 2736 views | Trequartista |
| Covid cases dropping on 18:59 - Sep 13 by chicoazul |
On More or Less at R4 they had an expert on who was faced with their previous predictions on the same show and had basically got everything wrong on cases deaths and hospitalisations, and she wasn’t the only one. The only conclusion they were able to draw is nobody knows anything and there are no reliable models. The cassandras of TWTD were wrong again in other words. |
Prof Neil Ferguson seems to have got it wrong on several occasions and yet still his opinions are promoted in the media. | |
| |
| Covid cases dropping on 19:03 - Sep 13 with 2732 views | BlueBadger |
| Covid cases dropping on 19:01 - Sep 13 by Trequartista |
Yes cases have been rising steadily until this week, so with the lag, hospitilisations are still increasing. Fingers crossed the drop in cases continues and has the corresponding effect on hospital cases after the lag. |
Universities are going back. Government are dropping all regs over the weekend. We are short-staffed, short on beds, exhausted and traumatised.
It is going to be yet another catastrophic winter. | |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
