| Covid cases dropping 16:09 - Sep 13 with 7073 views | Trequartista |
The opposite of what was predicted when schools returned even with increased testing. Just as they dropped dramatically when we lifted restrictions (100k new cases a day “inevitable” they said).
No one has a clue what is happening do they? |  |
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| Covid cases dropping on 19:03 - Sep 13 with 1160 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:35 - Sep 13 by Swansea_Blue |
Ours have been back a week too, and we've had a letter from one school cancelling stuff as they're short on teachers already and the eldest came back to day and said a couple of classmates are off with it.
Let's see. Schools look likely to see a rise in cases based on early signs here. What impact that would have on overall cases, I've no idea. Some recent modelling work for Wales suggests we may be reaching close enough to herd immunity to start to see sustained decline in cases. I hope that's the case. |
Junior informs me that the lateral flow tests can and are being dismantled and lines drawn on by them wot don't like skool. That and drinking certain things to give a positive.
Cheeky blighters. [Post edited 13 Sep 2021 19:04]
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| Covid cases dropping on 19:04 - Sep 13 with 1156 views | chicoazul |
| Covid cases dropping on 19:03 - Sep 13 by Trequartista |
Prof Neil Ferguson seems to have got it wrong on several occasions and yet still his opinions are promoted in the media. |
Imperial in particular came in for some stick on the show. I think that’s Ferguson. |  |
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| Covid cases dropping on 19:05 - Sep 13 with 1151 views | Steve_M |
Thanks. Deaths and hospitalisations are still increasing but that could just be the lag on cases. The over all case figure of 375 per 100,000 is still high though. We need to get that baseline number lower before the Winter. |  |
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| Covid cases dropping on 19:08 - Sep 13 with 1137 views | Herbivore |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:29 - Sep 13 by GlasgowBlue |
Cases in Scotland doubled the day the kids went back and continued to do so over the next two weeks.
I was assured by Gordon, Herbie and co that the only reason for the doubling of cases was due to the kids being back. Cases aren't dropping in Scotland and they are at an all time peak.
Cases in England went up by 5 - 7,000 a day as soon as the kids went back, a increase of less than 20%. That day to day increase continued for about a week. Since then the cases have dropped on the previous week's figures for 5 consecutive days.
Early days yet, but England's approach regarding 'freedom day' seems far more sensible than that taken in Scotland, where the Scottish Government relaxed everything in the same week the kids went back and the warmer summer weather ended. [Post edited 13 Sep 2021 16:31]
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Cases are dropping in Scotland though?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53511877.amp |  |
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| Covid cases dropping on 19:10 - Sep 13 with 1130 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Covid cases dropping on 16:15 - Sep 13 by Trequartista |
I’m not saying they are dropping for good, because I can predict the future no better than anyone else, but the week on week total is now down such have been the size of the reductions of the last three days (>25% today) so I think we will see at least a whole week, and then after that nobody knows |
Latest Suffolk figures are 25% UP over the previous 7 days. |  |
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| Covid cases dropping on 19:55 - Sep 13 with 1078 views | GlasgowBlue |
When "the schools opened" + "freedom day" cases went from 1100 a day to 3000 a day. They then doubled to about 6000 a day. They appear to be leveling off at that number...
I was told that when "the schools open" in England that cases would double each week. It didn't happen.
Scotland has been the covid capital of Europe.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19565003.glasgow-doctors-plea-help-scotland-
I stand by what I said two weeks ago. It was madness to hold off 'freedom day' during the hot months when the kids were off school and relax restrictions in the same week as they went back. |  |
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| Covid cases dropping on 20:00 - Sep 13 with 1072 views | Herbivore |
| Covid cases dropping on 19:55 - Sep 13 by GlasgowBlue |
When "the schools opened" + "freedom day" cases went from 1100 a day to 3000 a day. They then doubled to about 6000 a day. They appear to be leveling off at that number...
I was told that when "the schools open" in England that cases would double each week. It didn't happen.
Scotland has been the covid capital of Europe.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19565003.glasgow-doctors-plea-help-scotland-
I stand by what I said two weeks ago. It was madness to hold off 'freedom day' during the hot months when the kids were off school and relax restrictions in the same week as they went back. |
So is the BBC data wrong because it seems to show the daily cases and seven day average both dropping along with positive test percentage also dropping? I'm not denting cases up here have been very high but you said they weren't dropping and the data seems to show otherwise? | |
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| Covid cases dropping on 20:10 - Sep 13 with 1054 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Covid cases dropping on 20:00 - Sep 13 by Herbivore |
So is the BBC data wrong because it seems to show the daily cases and seven day average both dropping along with positive test percentage also dropping? I'm not denting cases up here have been very high but you said they weren't dropping and the data seems to show otherwise? |
Friday like for like was slightly up as per the link I posted.
Same for Thursday
Wednesday slightly down. But barely
Tuesday slightly down
Monday way up. And before anyone says it, we don't have an August Bank Holiday for the previous Monday.
As I posted. NHS Scotland have said that today's figures are artificially low and that will be reflected in tomorrows stats.
For business reasons I study this sh1T every day. [Post edited 13 Sep 2021 20:13]
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| Covid cases dropping on 20:14 - Sep 13 with 1044 views | Herbivore |
| Covid cases dropping on 20:10 - Sep 13 by GlasgowBlue |
Friday like for like was slightly up as per the link I posted.
Same for Thursday
Wednesday slightly down. But barely
Tuesday slightly down
Monday way up. And before anyone says it, we don't have an August Bank Holiday for the previous Monday.
As I posted. NHS Scotland have said that today's figures are artificially low and that will be reflected in tomorrows stats.
For business reasons I study this sh1T every day. [Post edited 13 Sep 2021 20:13]
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Not good that the BBC stats are wrong if that's the case. | |
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| Covid cases dropping on 20:24 - Sep 13 with 1027 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Covid cases dropping on 20:14 - Sep 13 by Herbivore |
Not good that the BBC stats are wrong if that's the case. |
I'd rather they were right.
The only light at the end of the tunnel is that they have stayed pretty consistent for the past two weeks.
We seem to have reached a peak.
Although it wouldn't surprise me to see a spike in Glasgow after TRNSMT. That was a magnet for a lot of unvaccinated teenagers. | |
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| Covid cases dropping on 20:36 - Sep 13 with 1011 views | Herbivore |
| Covid cases dropping on 20:24 - Sep 13 by GlasgowBlue |
I'd rather they were right.
The only light at the end of the tunnel is that they have stayed pretty consistent for the past two weeks.
We seem to have reached a peak.
Although it wouldn't surprise me to see a spike in Glasgow after TRNSMT. That was a magnet for a lot of unvaccinated teenagers. |
Fingers crossed the numbers start to look better. | |
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| Covid cases dropping on 20:38 - Sep 13 with 1009 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Covid cases dropping on 20:36 - Sep 13 by Herbivore |
Fingers crossed the numbers start to look better. |
The Vaccine Passports should persuade the youngsters to get jagged. I know a few of my kids unvaccinated friends who have since had their first shot when they were told they wouldn't get in nightclubs.
I can't understand why they have backed down in England. | |
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| Covid cases dropping on 20:44 - Sep 13 with 997 views | giant_stow |
| Covid cases dropping on 18:58 - Sep 13 by BlueBadger |
Attended my first covid-related paediatric cardiac arrest call last night. It was not a massive barrel of laughs.
Oh, and we're running on higher daily deaths at the moment than we were 12 months ago. |
Hope the kid made it (and that you havent already hinted that they didnt) |  |
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| Covid cases dropping on 20:45 - Sep 13 with 989 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Covid cases dropping on 19:03 - Sep 13 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Junior informs me that the lateral flow tests can and are being dismantled and lines drawn on by them wot don't like skool. That and drinking certain things to give a positive.
Cheeky blighters. [Post edited 13 Sep 2021 19:04]
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If Coke is good enough for a douche to prevent pregnancy, it's certainly good enough to fool a lateral flow test. Little scamps!
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210705-how-children-are-spoofing-covid-19-t |  |
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| Covid cases dropping on 21:15 - Sep 13 with 958 views | Herbivore |
| Covid cases dropping on 20:38 - Sep 13 by GlasgowBlue |
The Vaccine Passports should persuade the youngsters to get jagged. I know a few of my kids unvaccinated friends who have since had their first shot when they were told they wouldn't get in nightclubs.
I can't understand why they have backed down in England. |
Doesn't play well with the CRG, formerly known as the ERG. | |
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| Covid cases dropping on 21:43 - Sep 13 with 936 views | Fixed_It |
| Covid cases dropping on 20:38 - Sep 13 by GlasgowBlue |
The Vaccine Passports should persuade the youngsters to get jagged. I know a few of my kids unvaccinated friends who have since had their first shot when they were told they wouldn't get in nightclubs.
I can't understand why they have backed down in England. |
Yep. I know of a few who have said they won't bother now they don't need the passport!  |  |
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| Covid cases dropping on 21:54 - Sep 13 with 924 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Covid cases dropping on 20:38 - Sep 13 by GlasgowBlue |
The Vaccine Passports should persuade the youngsters to get jagged. I know a few of my kids unvaccinated friends who have since had their first shot when they were told they wouldn't get in nightclubs.
I can't understand why they have backed down in England. |
I don't understand it. Is it really such a big deal in terms of choice? Surely people realise that unusual measures are needed to limit the spread and as such norms have to be suspended for a while. People still have the right to not have the vaccine, but I don't see why the rest of us can't then say 'sorry, no you can't mix freely with us if you're not protected'. Normal people would even self regulate themselves: 'sorry gran, I won't be coming over this weekend after all, as I've a stinking cold', etc. | |
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| Covid cases dropping on 21:58 - Sep 13 with 917 views | Swansea_Blue |
Anyway, if you think you were having a bad day my boy's best mate (13 yr old, so unvaccinated) has just tested positive for the 3rd time. And he's actually suffering a bit this time from what we can tell. Poor sod. | |
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| Covid cases dropping on 22:17 - Sep 13 with 903 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
Depends on whether there is a lag in counting cases, I guess.
Anecdotally the numbers off in school is rising rapidly (staff as well as students). We don't get told if they are testing positive or isolating due to contact and awaiting a PCR test but definitely the numbers are going up. Only one in a thousand showed up in the lateral flow tests as they returned apparently. Maybe our school is an outlier but I would be surprised if it is.
Also, in terms of NHS coping, I was told of an ambulance heading to Paget A&E (Gt Yarmouth) was told they were full so diverted to Norfolk and Norwich. Whilst on the way there was also told they were full and was diverted to Kings Lynn within the past few days. |  |
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| Covid cases dropping on 22:37 - Sep 13 with 870 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Covid cases dropping on 22:17 - Sep 13 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Depends on whether there is a lag in counting cases, I guess.
Anecdotally the numbers off in school is rising rapidly (staff as well as students). We don't get told if they are testing positive or isolating due to contact and awaiting a PCR test but definitely the numbers are going up. Only one in a thousand showed up in the lateral flow tests as they returned apparently. Maybe our school is an outlier but I would be surprised if it is.
Also, in terms of NHS coping, I was told of an ambulance heading to Paget A&E (Gt Yarmouth) was told they were full so diverted to Norfolk and Norwich. Whilst on the way there was also told they were full and was diverted to Kings Lynn within the past few days. |
Cases are down. No lag in data.
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| Covid cases dropping on 22:39 - Sep 13 with 867 views | Ryorry |
Not in my area they're not - from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk -
"Between 7 September 2021 and 13 September 2021, 663 people had a confirmed positive test result. This shows an increase of 4.9% compared to the previous 7 days." |  |
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| Covid cases dropping on 22:40 - Sep 13 with 863 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Covid cases dropping on 22:37 - Sep 13 by GlasgowBlue |
Cases are down. No lag in data.
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And definitely going up rapidly in our school and have been all week.
Must just be us then, I guess. | |
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| Covid cases dropping on 22:47 - Sep 13 with 851 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Covid cases dropping on 22:39 - Sep 13 by Ryorry |
Not in my area they're not - from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk -
"Between 7 September 2021 and 13 September 2021, 663 people had a confirmed positive test result. This shows an increase of 4.9% compared to the previous 7 days." |
Just checked the area I am referring to and cases are up 21% in last 7 days. R is estimated between 0.9 and 1.1.
The R value is the more concerning figure. If cases are down overall but it is rising rapidly in certain areas, we are going to have issues with containment aren't we?
This is also the same area as said hospitals above. | |
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| Covid cases dropping on 22:53 - Sep 13 with 838 views | Ryorry |
| Covid cases dropping on 22:47 - Sep 13 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Just checked the area I am referring to and cases are up 21% in last 7 days. R is estimated between 0.9 and 1.1.
The R value is the more concerning figure. If cases are down overall but it is rising rapidly in certain areas, we are going to have issues with containment aren't we?
This is also the same area as said hospitals above. |
Couldn't find the R rate for mine but no doubt it's there somewhere - just short of time to look. | |
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| Covid cases dropping on 22:58 - Sep 13 with 820 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Covid cases dropping on 22:53 - Sep 13 by Ryorry |
Couldn't find the R rate for mine but no doubt it's there somewhere - just short of time to look. |
Interestingly, checking it from the same page the area is wider than the one the other data is for. I wouldn't be surprised if it is higher more locally.
This appears to me like slow spread within the schools from a low initial number of cases but once it spreads within families and then across schools we could have an issue.
Or, in short, a dip in national cases 1 week into term is a little early to be stating the scientists who have predicted a difficult October are wrong. | |
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