| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn 07:31 - Sep 14 with 979 views | Steve_M |
https://unherd.com/2021/09/are-we-heading-for-another-winter-lockdown/?=frlh
Key points:
- Rolling average of deaths at 120 per week, comparable to mid-October last year;
- Rate of growth slower, about 7% do doubling time 10 weeks versus 10 days a week ago;
- Vaccinations works, that's why the above disparity exists;
- The question now is whether that growth will still be a problem as the Winter goes on and whether it is sensible to reintroduce modest measures - masks in enclosed spaces, WFH, vaccine certificates. |  |
| |  |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 08:09 - Sep 14 with 909 views | Herbivore |
The problem we have now is that if we reintroduce measures I just can't see sufficient people following them for it to make a difference. Public transport providers are still telling people to wear masks but my recent train journeys suggest I'm about the only one following that guidance.
The big issue is that the very government that needs to be able to tell people to follow measures is the same government propounding rhetoric that any restrictions are a gross infringement of our personal liberties. We've seen it with the whole freedom day nonsense, we've seen it with the back peddling on vaccine passports. You can't paint very minor inconveniences as being virtually on a par with human rights abuses on the one hand and then on the other hand expect people to accept those minor inconveniences when you deem it necessary.
As with pretty much everything, government messaging has been a mess and has significantly undermined public health measures during the pandemic and will continue to do so. |  |
| |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 10:04 - Sep 14 with 789 views | Steve_M |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 08:09 - Sep 14 by Herbivore |
The problem we have now is that if we reintroduce measures I just can't see sufficient people following them for it to make a difference. Public transport providers are still telling people to wear masks but my recent train journeys suggest I'm about the only one following that guidance.
The big issue is that the very government that needs to be able to tell people to follow measures is the same government propounding rhetoric that any restrictions are a gross infringement of our personal liberties. We've seen it with the whole freedom day nonsense, we've seen it with the back peddling on vaccine passports. You can't paint very minor inconveniences as being virtually on a par with human rights abuses on the one hand and then on the other hand expect people to accept those minor inconveniences when you deem it necessary.
As with pretty much everything, government messaging has been a mess and has significantly undermined public health measures during the pandemic and will continue to do so. |
It depends, if rates go up and hospitalisations are increasingly then the majority of the public has shown several times over the past 18 months that they are more cautious than this government.
Unfortunately, the nature of the Covid Recovery Group (sic) is such that Johnson will be watching that flank rather than public health measures and any minor measures will be implemented too late to have any real impact (I think Chivers is implying that too) in the article. | |
| |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 10:28 - Sep 14 with 759 views | Pinewoodblue |
You would have thought there would information available on the impact various measures would make on number of new cases, hospitalisations and deaths.
Wonder how lower the numbers would be if mask wearing was mandated on public transport and in stores. Far better to keep the numbers down than wait until numbers soar.
Was in local Co-op yesterday at lunchtime, full of students from Suffolk One and only one wearing a mask. Usually go earlier, or later, when store less busy but almost everyone, apart from staff, wearing a mask. |  |
| |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 11:06 - Sep 14 with 739 views | BlueBadger |
The government have just scrapped the idea of vaccine passports at a time when universities will be getting back into full swing. We are exhausted, traumatised, short of staff and beds within the NHS. Getting people back into masks in public places again will be a nightmare task and we're headed for winter and still playing catch-up with elective surgeries and chronic illnesses that haven't been effectively reviewed for nearly two years.
It's going to be another catastrophic winter, albeit a 'quiet' one because covid will only be one facet driving it |  |
| |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 11:40 - Sep 14 with 686 views | Herbivore |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 10:28 - Sep 14 by Pinewoodblue |
You would have thought there would information available on the impact various measures would make on number of new cases, hospitalisations and deaths.
Wonder how lower the numbers would be if mask wearing was mandated on public transport and in stores. Far better to keep the numbers down than wait until numbers soar.
Was in local Co-op yesterday at lunchtime, full of students from Suffolk One and only one wearing a mask. Usually go earlier, or later, when store less busy but almost everyone, apart from staff, wearing a mask. |
Wow, really surprised to see you pinning the blame on younger people. | |
| |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 11:49 - Sep 14 with 670 views | chicoazul |
As I said in the other thread nobody knows anything, most if not all high profile predictions have been wrong, and there are no reliable models. So we should just carry on as is. |  |
| |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 12:09 - Sep 14 with 644 views | bluelagos |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 11:49 - Sep 14 by chicoazul |
As I said in the other thread nobody knows anything, most if not all high profile predictions have been wrong, and there are no reliable models. So we should just carry on as is. |
"there are no reliable models"
Complete bollox. There are no 100% accurate models, no one ever claimed there are.
There are models, that make assumptions and forecast what they think will happen based on the limited knowledge they have. That is what they are, that is what they do.
They are the best we have, and to suggest we should ignore them because they are not 100% accurate is utterly absurd. |  |
| |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 12:13 - Sep 14 with 632 views | chicoazul |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 12:09 - Sep 14 by bluelagos |
"there are no reliable models"
Complete bollox. There are no 100% accurate models, no one ever claimed there are.
There are models, that make assumptions and forecast what they think will happen based on the limited knowledge they have. That is what they are, that is what they do.
They are the best we have, and to suggest we should ignore them because they are not 100% accurate is utterly absurd. |
All predictions using models have been wrong, many wildly wrong. What we are doing now is working so we should just carry on. Nobody has made any accurate predictions since before lockdown eased 3 months ago. | |
| |
Login to get fewer ads
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 12:31 - Sep 14 with 603 views | bluelagos |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 12:13 - Sep 14 by chicoazul |
All predictions using models have been wrong, many wildly wrong. What we are doing now is working so we should just carry on. Nobody has made any accurate predictions since before lockdown eased 3 months ago. |
"All predictions using models have been wrong"
You are the best example of the Dunning Kruger model, in full effect, I've come across in a long time. You clearly know sfa about mathematical modelling as is demonstrated every time you comment on the models.
My advice would just be to stick to things you have even a limited bit of knowledge about. | |
| |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 12:31 - Sep 14 with 604 views | BlueBadger |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 08:09 - Sep 14 by Herbivore |
The problem we have now is that if we reintroduce measures I just can't see sufficient people following them for it to make a difference. Public transport providers are still telling people to wear masks but my recent train journeys suggest I'm about the only one following that guidance.
The big issue is that the very government that needs to be able to tell people to follow measures is the same government propounding rhetoric that any restrictions are a gross infringement of our personal liberties. We've seen it with the whole freedom day nonsense, we've seen it with the back peddling on vaccine passports. You can't paint very minor inconveniences as being virtually on a par with human rights abuses on the one hand and then on the other hand expect people to accept those minor inconveniences when you deem it necessary.
As with pretty much everything, government messaging has been a mess and has significantly undermined public health measures during the pandemic and will continue to do so. |
Retaining mandatory masking in enclosed public spaces was a no-loss game. It was a sop to the sort of people who bleat on about 'freedom from government interference in peoples' lives' but are also deeply keen on rolling back access to reproductive health interventions, gay rights, etc, etc... | |
| |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 13:11 - Sep 14 with 545 views | farkenhell |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 12:13 - Sep 14 by chicoazul |
All predictions using models have been wrong, many wildly wrong. What we are doing now is working so we should just carry on. Nobody has made any accurate predictions since before lockdown eased 3 months ago. |
Is it working though? Deaths are currently averaging 100-110 per day and have been for some time. Thats apt 40K per year. I don't class that as working. |  | | |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 16:02 - Sep 14 with 450 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Decent piece on potential for covid cases this Autumn on 12:13 - Sep 14 by chicoazul |
All predictions using models have been wrong, many wildly wrong. What we are doing now is working so we should just carry on. Nobody has made any accurate predictions since before lockdown eased 3 months ago. |
They don't use the models for firm predictions though. They're used in helping them understand more about the scale of the pandemic, to test assumptions, to run various whatif scenarios, etc. E.g. modelling at the start of the pandemic was used to look at likely scale of the problem if nothing was done versus introduction of different mitigation measures. That's their strength.
Not many people seem to understand how models work and how they should be used, which isn't really surprising as unless we've stumbled across them in our jobs (or become a modeller) we never come across them.
"Working", arf! |  |
| |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
