| A positive..... 13:22 - Sep 14 with 2205 views | itfcjoe |
.....the team in 22nd place after 6 games has been promoted automatically 3 times in the last 20 years, the same amount of times as the team that was second at that point
A negative.....
....the team there has also been relegated 10 times over the same period, and only got in the play offs once.
Being in the bottom 6 at this stage of the season for last 20 years....
Teams - 120
Automatic promotion - 3
Play offs - 3
Relegated - 43
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| A positive..... on 13:28 - Sep 14 with 1960 views | BlueBadger |
So, what you're saying is that there's a good chance we can See More New Grounds and Come Back Stronger next season? |  |
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| A positive..... on 13:28 - Sep 14 with 1966 views | Dubtractor |
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| A positive..... on 13:28 - Sep 14 with 1959 views | Fixed_It |
Someone's got too much time on their hands... |  |
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| A positive..... on 13:30 - Sep 14 with 1946 views | Dubtractor |
But Blackpool......
in all seriousness, that set of numbers at the bottom are pretty bleak. | |
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| A positive..... on 13:30 - Sep 14 with 1943 views | _sanctimoanious_ |
If we get relegated it would be the greatest achievement ever. Total bantz. |  | | |
| A positive..... on 13:31 - Sep 14 with 1931 views | Illinoisblue |
Statman is dead, long live the statman |  |
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| A positive..... on 13:34 - Sep 14 with 1884 views | Chrisd |
So what's all your moaning been about Joe?!  |  |
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| A positive..... on 13:47 - Sep 14 with 1795 views | Steve_M |
| A positive..... on 13:30 - Sep 14 by Dubtractor |
But Blackpool......
in all seriousness, that set of numbers at the bottom are pretty bleak. |
I'm quite confident that we won't get relegated with this squad though Dub. |  |
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| A positive..... on 13:47 - Sep 14 with 1796 views | itfcjoe |
| A positive..... on 13:31 - Sep 14 by Illinoisblue |
Statman is dead, long live the statman |
Someone had sent it to me - I can't claim credit!
He did it previously after 4 games when we were 18th, and randomly at that point more teams had been promoted after being 18th after 4 games than anywhere else outside the top 8.
Now we are 22nd after 6 - the teams that have got auto most often at this stage are from:
3rd - 8
4th - 6
1st - 4
2nd, 5th, 9th, 10th and 22nd - 3
The team in 6th or 7th at this stage of the season hasn't been automatically promoted in 20 years [Post edited 14 Sep 2021 13:48]
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| A positive..... on 13:47 - Sep 14 with 1781 views | acj |
So automatic promotion is more likely than the play offs at this point, happy days!
Still think it will click for us at some point and we'll come proper good, but worried it'll be too late for this season. |  |
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| A positive..... on 13:51 - Sep 14 with 1727 views | C_HealyIsAPleasure |
| A positive..... on 13:47 - Sep 14 by itfcjoe |
Someone had sent it to me - I can't claim credit!
He did it previously after 4 games when we were 18th, and randomly at that point more teams had been promoted after being 18th after 4 games than anywhere else outside the top 8.
Now we are 22nd after 6 - the teams that have got auto most often at this stage are from:
3rd - 8
4th - 6
1st - 4
2nd, 5th, 9th, 10th and 22nd - 3
The team in 6th or 7th at this stage of the season hasn't been automatically promoted in 20 years [Post edited 14 Sep 2021 13:48]
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Really, really odd that we’ve occupied 2 positions now that see an abnormal amount of teams promoted based on those stats. Hopefully it’s a sign, as there isn’t a lot else to cling onto at the moment! ðŸ™ðŸ» |  |
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| A positive..... on 13:55 - Sep 14 with 1685 views | itfcjoe |
| A positive..... on 13:51 - Sep 14 by C_HealyIsAPleasure |
Really, really odd that we’ve occupied 2 positions now that see an abnormal amount of teams promoted based on those stats. Hopefully it’s a sign, as there isn’t a lot else to cling onto at the moment! ðŸ™ðŸ» |
Yep - very strange - and like you say we've got buggar all else to get us excited about!
On our way, we're on our way..... | |
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| A positive..... on 14:01 - Sep 14 with 1615 views | daisyisabaddog |
Currently 20/1 to go up and 20/1 to go down | | | |
| A positive..... on 14:03 - Sep 14 with 1586 views | daisyisabaddog |
| A positive..... on 14:01 - Sep 14 by daisyisabaddog |
Currently 20/1 to go up and 20/1 to go down |
Sorry should have said 20/1 to go up and 10/1 to go down | | | |
| A positive..... on 14:03 - Sep 14 with 1583 views | abracaDOBRA_ |
the only difference I would say between us and the sides that get relegated/ stay in league are that we have a mad squad, probably the best in the league. There's would've been crap in reality.
If these good players turn into a good team itll be fine |  | | |
| A positive..... on 14:09 - Sep 14 with 1531 views | Fixed_It |
| A positive..... on 13:55 - Sep 14 by itfcjoe |
Yep - very strange - and like you say we've got buggar all else to get us excited about!
On our way, we're on our way..... |
Maybe, just maybe, the Club are merely taking the data-led approach to extremes and this is all part of the plan! | |
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| A positive..... on 14:24 - Sep 14 with 1394 views | chicoazul |
Relegation could be the best thing for the club though. |  |
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| A positive..... on 14:30 - Sep 14 with 1354 views | Dubtractor |
| A positive..... on 13:47 - Sep 14 by Steve_M |
I'm quite confident that we won't get relegated with this squad though Dub. |
To be honest it was the promotion and playoff numbers I was looking at. | |
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| A positive..... on 14:35 - Sep 14 with 1318 views | BlueBadger |
| A positive..... on 14:24 - Sep 14 by chicoazul |
Relegation could be the best thing for the club though. |
We will regroup and come back stronger.
And enjoy visiting loads of new grounds whilst we're pissing the division. | |
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| A positive..... on 15:19 - Sep 14 with 1170 views | Darth_Koont |
I’d still like to know if the first 6 games is any different statistically from any random 6 game spell throughout the season. It *looks* pretty likely from those figures and a rough guesstimate.
Of course, we clearly need to improve and make this our bad spell/avoid another one anything like it. |  |
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| A positive..... on 15:38 - Sep 14 with 1090 views | Swansea_Blue |
Fourteen times more likely to be relegated than get promoted. Marvellous. Oh well, let's regroup and try and be ready for the start of next season, and on time ideally. |  |
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| A positive..... on 15:41 - Sep 14 with 1084 views | jayessess |
| A positive..... on 15:19 - Sep 14 by Darth_Koont |
I’d still like to know if the first 6 games is any different statistically from any random 6 game spell throughout the season. It *looks* pretty likely from those figures and a rough guesstimate.
Of course, we clearly need to improve and make this our bad spell/avoid another one anything like it. |
I'd be interested to know if you'd see any different patterns if you filter for club size/resources. Are bigger clubs likelier to float back upwards? Are the general stats skewed simply by the over-abundance of minnows whose start-middle and end will all be similar? |  |
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| A positive..... on 16:16 - Sep 14 with 969 views | Darth_Koont |
| A positive..... on 15:41 - Sep 14 by jayessess |
I'd be interested to know if you'd see any different patterns if you filter for club size/resources. Are bigger clubs likelier to float back upwards? Are the general stats skewed simply by the over-abundance of minnows whose start-middle and end will all be similar? |
Yeah, resources and squad depth should come into it as the season progresses and the second transfer window also comes into play..
I think the anomaly of 22nd being much better than say 20th or 15th in this scenario shows that it’s not a very good predictor of future performance. With 40 games to go, really it’s just showing that you are behind the curve and what that points deficit does for your chances.
Intuitively, I think it would also show that as the season goes on and teams settle then the points over a 6-game sample should become a better indicator of the final position. But still nowhere near enough to be any use. As I’m willing to bet most of the eventual top 10 will, at some stage, have as bad a run as our current one. | |
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| A positive..... on 17:48 - Sep 14 with 769 views | Illinoisblue |
| A positive..... on 13:47 - Sep 14 by Steve_M |
I'm quite confident that we won't get relegated with this squad though Dub. |
HMS Stay in the League proudly setting sail. Captain Cook says “we can do it lads!” | |
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