| Betting on same correct score every week 17:26 - Oct 25 with 4710 views | Ipswichlove |
Was having a chat with a mate about choosing a team and betting for them to win 3-1 every week until end of the season, and if it could be profitable (if got an early win/a few 3-1s throughout season)
Had a look at West Brom as got favourable fixtures coming up.
Last had a 3-1 win in the cup against Accrington in August 2017 and in the league was March 2017 against Arsenal.
By probability, surely there due to have one soon. Especially if they are to come top 2 in the champ this season. 28/1 against Fulham next game is defo tempting
Was wondering if anyone had any success trying this ? |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 17:29 - Oct 25 with 3134 views | J2BLUE |
I used to post on the Betfair forum and it is full of the broken dreams of people who have tried similar.
If you can afford to lose the money and want to do it for interest then go for it.
If you are thinking this will make a profit then it's best to avoid it. It may well make a big profit. Or you may lose every stake you place. Nothing in football has to happen and no team is every due anything. It's a dangerous mindset. |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 17:30 - Oct 25 with 3129 views | EdwardStone |
You need to talk to Graham....he always predicts a 4 - 0 to Town
He was right t'other day and will be right again many more times this season
I am a more circumspect gambler, 50p each way for every match |  | | |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 17:33 - Oct 25 with 3111 views | Illinoisblue |
“Surely due to have one soon” = bookies dream! |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 17:36 - Oct 25 with 3098 views | bluelagos |
Flipping a coin....
If you flip 3 heads is a tail more likely next? Answer is no, it's still 50:60 irrespective of past history.
Footie odds are set in the favour of the bookies. If you think a bookie has got it wrong for a team / likely score / first scorer - then bet away. But the bet you are suggesting, based on "one is due" is likely to lose you money over time.
Remember Rommy's footie accumulators on here? How much money was p*ssed away on that without a payout?
Bet on the footie for fun if you chose, but I don't think anyone on here's got rich by regular betting on it tbh. |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 18:51 - Oct 25 with 2920 views | ITFCson |
In theory adopting the Martingale strategy would make for a profit. But only if you have endless supply of money and can bet any limits.
So in short - no you can’t keep betting on same score as a profitable strategy. However if you are betting on correct score of town matches always use an exchange as the price will be around 25% greater than the rip off high street/online bookies | | | |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:03 - Oct 25 with 2871 views | BlueandTruesince82 |
This what bookies and casinos rely on....People convincing themselves that the law of averages outweighs the law of maths.
My mate hit this theory with roulette... bet either red or black and stick to it, doubling your stake every time and eventually you'll end up in profit but the reality is that that stake can go up v quickly if your colour doesn't come up and even if it does the amount you're actually up by is not really worth the hassle. |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:22 - Oct 25 with 2825 views | Kieran_Knows |
I have a mate who at the start of each season chooses a team, and every week does Ipswich to win 2-1 and the other team to win 2-1.
Don’t think he’s won much, if anything this season, but has won on several occasions before. |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:28 - Oct 25 with 2802 views | bluelagos |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 17:36 - Oct 25 by bluelagos |
Flipping a coin....
If you flip 3 heads is a tail more likely next? Answer is no, it's still 50:60 irrespective of past history.
Footie odds are set in the favour of the bookies. If you think a bookie has got it wrong for a team / likely score / first scorer - then bet away. But the bet you are suggesting, based on "one is due" is likely to lose you money over time.
Remember Rommy's footie accumulators on here? How much money was p*ssed away on that without a payout?
Bet on the footie for fun if you chose, but I don't think anyone on here's got rich by regular betting on it tbh. |
Fat fingers. Meant 50:50 doh. | |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:36 - Oct 25 with 2777 views | Giant_Midget |
3-1 isn't that common of a score line. 51 matches on Saturday from the PL to NL. 3 of them finished 3-1. |  | | |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:40 - Oct 25 with 2771 views | StokieBlue |
You can literally backtest this for every team for a number of seasons, it would take very little effort and prove that it's a poor strategy.
Not long ago I wrote a machine learning algo to look for value in bookies odds where good bets could be placed. The conclusion thus far is the bookies know what they are doing but I could have also told you that without writing the algo.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:41 - Oct 25 with 2761 views | chrismakin |
I myself did 3-1 every game last season the celebration on that final game was incredible. The losses had been slowed lol. |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:54 - Oct 25 with 2730 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:03 - Oct 25 by BlueandTruesince82 |
This what bookies and casinos rely on....People convincing themselves that the law of averages outweighs the law of maths.
My mate hit this theory with roulette... bet either red or black and stick to it, doubling your stake every time and eventually you'll end up in profit but the reality is that that stake can go up v quickly if your colour doesn't come up and even if it does the amount you're actually up by is not really worth the hassle. |
This is known as the Martingale strategy. As you say it's complete rubbish. It's not uncommon to get 10 reds/blacks/odds/evens in a row. If you start with £1 you're betting £512 on bet 10...all to win £1 profit. It's the way to the poor house.
Some people actually 'created' systems based on spinning the wheel with online casinos with no bet and then once you got 5 reds yo would start betting on black for example. Trouble is the roulette wheel has no memory... | |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:54 - Oct 25 with 2730 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:40 - Oct 25 by StokieBlue |
You can literally backtest this for every team for a number of seasons, it would take very little effort and prove that it's a poor strategy.
Not long ago I wrote a machine learning algo to look for value in bookies odds where good bets could be placed. The conclusion thus far is the bookies know what they are doing but I could have also told you that without writing the algo.
SB |
Unfortunately the bookies have better algos and better ways of detecting when algos are used to place bets - prospective SIL (1st in Maths from Durham, the scouse git) had written something similar in his 2nd year and was soon detected placing bets using it as it showed the bookies where the gaps in their algos were when he started winning.... |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:56 - Oct 25 with 2722 views | J2BLUE |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:40 - Oct 25 by StokieBlue |
You can literally backtest this for every team for a number of seasons, it would take very little effort and prove that it's a poor strategy.
Not long ago I wrote a machine learning algo to look for value in bookies odds where good bets could be placed. The conclusion thus far is the bookies know what they are doing but I could have also told you that without writing the algo.
SB |
Matched betting is the way for the common person to make money from betting. Thankfully the popularity of matched betting is growing rapidly. | |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 20:02 - Oct 25 with 2691 views | SitfcB |
I’ve done us to win 3-1 every game for years, only £1/2 a time but hardly ever happens.
2-1 is probably a better one to back for a team throughout the season. |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 20:09 - Oct 25 with 2635 views | The_Snake |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 20:02 - Oct 25 by SitfcB |
I’ve done us to win 3-1 every game for years, only £1/2 a time but hardly ever happens.
2-1 is probably a better one to back for a team throughout the season. |
Mate of mine does 3-1 every game. Think it’s only come in once since we beat Newcastle 3-1 at home with Huws getting the winner. T’was 90-1 that day. |  | | |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 20:13 - Oct 25 with 2604 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 20:02 - Oct 25 by SitfcB |
I’ve done us to win 3-1 every game for years, only £1/2 a time but hardly ever happens.
2-1 is probably a better one to back for a team throughout the season. |
Done that….back in 91/92 promotion season, Town won 2-1 eleven times. Odds were usually 7/1 -8/1 for home games and better when away. |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 20:54 - Oct 25 with 2546 views | StokieBlue |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:54 - Oct 25 by Ewan_Oozami |
Unfortunately the bookies have better algos and better ways of detecting when algos are used to place bets - prospective SIL (1st in Maths from Durham, the scouse git) had written something similar in his 2nd year and was soon detected placing bets using it as it showed the bookies where the gaps in their algos were when he started winning.... |
Yep, it wasn't an exercise to try and make money, more something to do with regards to tweaking some ML algos. As you say though, if you get one working they will be all over it like a rash.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 21:15 - Oct 25 with 2494 views | Illinoisblue |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 20:09 - Oct 25 by The_Snake |
Mate of mine does 3-1 every game. Think it’s only come in once since we beat Newcastle 3-1 at home with Huws getting the winner. T’was 90-1 that day. |
90-1? Blimey. At those odds it would be worth it but I’m sure we’re absolutely nowhere near those odds in L1 | |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 21:50 - Oct 25 with 2432 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 17:36 - Oct 25 by bluelagos |
Flipping a coin....
If you flip 3 heads is a tail more likely next? Answer is no, it's still 50:60 irrespective of past history.
Footie odds are set in the favour of the bookies. If you think a bookie has got it wrong for a team / likely score / first scorer - then bet away. But the bet you are suggesting, based on "one is due" is likely to lose you money over time.
Remember Rommy's footie accumulators on here? How much money was p*ssed away on that without a payout?
Bet on the footie for fun if you chose, but I don't think anyone on here's got rich by regular betting on it tbh. |
Those accumulators were always with the know how that we we were never likely to land but was just a bit of fun with so many people on the board taking part. Across the three years, we had around 150 different posters take part at some point.
I even had a table with win/loss ration for each person to keep track.
And then I went to uni and got a life so stopped it. Was fun whilst it lasted though |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 21:52 - Oct 25 with 2423 views | bournemouthblue |
On a similar note, I know there were people who used to bet on Tommy Smith to score every week (maybe first scorer) when he used to get the odd goal, that probably turned out to be fairly profitable? |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 21:52 - Oct 25 with 2421 views | bluelagos |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 21:50 - Oct 25 by The_Romford_Blue |
Those accumulators were always with the know how that we we were never likely to land but was just a bit of fun with so many people on the board taking part. Across the three years, we had around 150 different posters take part at some point.
I even had a table with win/loss ration for each person to keep track.
And then I went to uni and got a life so stopped it. Was fun whilst it lasted though |
Fun for the bookies too! There's a reason why they like accumulators. | |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 22:06 - Oct 25 with 2382 views | Funge |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 21:52 - Oct 25 by bluelagos |
Fun for the bookies too! There's a reason why they like accumulators. |
Caan Berry knows his stuff - he gives a breakdown of why bookies love acca's so, here:-
https://caanberry.com/football-accumulator-betting/
Big over-riders on pretty much every accumulator for a bookie.
As J2 says, matched betting is where it's at (or at least, where it was.... haven't dabbled in any of that for a couple years now) |  | | |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 23:54 - Oct 25 with 2263 views | BlueBadger |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 19:40 - Oct 25 by StokieBlue |
You can literally backtest this for every team for a number of seasons, it would take very little effort and prove that it's a poor strategy.
Not long ago I wrote a machine learning algo to look for value in bookies odds where good bets could be placed. The conclusion thus far is the bookies know what they are doing but I could have also told you that without writing the algo.
SB |
As my grandad used to say 'there's a more wealthy bookies than punters out there boy'. |  |
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| Betting on same correct score every week on 00:09 - Oct 26 with 2250 views | The_Romford_Blue |
| Betting on same correct score every week on 23:54 - Oct 25 by BlueBadger |
As my grandad used to say 'there's a more wealthy bookies than punters out there boy'. |
Everyone should know that though. They should know it’s 98.5% of punters who will be down from gambling in their life.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t a 1.5% percent of us who aren’t. Strategies such as the OPs suggestion will do nothing but put you in the 98.5% though. It’s a losing strategy long term. | |
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