| Herd immunity from covid 22:03 - Oct 28 with 9081 views | StokieBlue |
A number scientists had been floating the idea that herd immunity from covid might be impossible due to the fact that immunised people still carry a high enough viral load to infect other people.
It seems this has been tentatively confirmed by a new study:
Lancet Paper:
https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/s147330992
Guardian Article:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/28/covid-vaccinated-likely-unjabbed-i
Essentially it would render the government strategy of herd immunity (which they have been attempting regardless of what they say) impossible because the unvaccinated cannot rely on the immunity of the vaccinated to prevent them getting infected as they can with other diseases.
The study also highlighted a few worrying things for the vaccinated:
“What we found, surprisingly, was that already by three months after receipt of the second vaccine dose, the risk of acquiring infection was higher compared to being more recently vaccinated,”
This was also interesting given a discussion on here over the last few days around mask wearing and other respiratory viruses:
"Kao suggested the findings also added weight to calls for the introduction of further measures in the UK to tackle the spread of Covid, adding the move could also mitigate the risks posed by other respiratory infections including flu."
Those eligible for boosters should get them straight away.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 22:06 - Oct 28 with 3670 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
Saw something from another Oxford scientist the other day saying we should stop testing asymptomatic children because if they test positive it is disrupting their education.
Unfortunately there are too many scientists giving the Government the advice that they want to hear, despite the majority clearly showing it won't work. |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 22:08 - Oct 28 with 3651 views | wkj |
What is your proof? |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 22:17 - Oct 28 with 3591 views | XYZ |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:08 - Oct 28 by wkj |
What is your proof? |
Did you follow the links? |  | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:25 - Oct 28 with 3559 views | Coastalblue |
We had a visit tonight from the Office Of National Statistics guy, taking swab and blood tests for the Cambridge University research and I know a few on here are doing the same.
One of the things he said was that the 'flu rate was so low last winter that they have struggled to develop the vaccine for this winter. Aside from anything else this alone must suggest that wearing face masks on public transport as a minimum in the winter is a no brainer.
Sorry, a bit off topic for the thread but possibly relevant? |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 22:26 - Oct 28 with 3552 views | nodge_blue |
Yes that seems to be the case. Especially with the new variants.
We will have it with us for the foreseeable. 20k every day suggested by someone.
But it may become less bad with more already had it or vaccinated. Even though we get it, the residual affects of the vaccine help against severe illness they think. |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 22:28 - Oct 28 with 3522 views | StokieBlue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:25 - Oct 28 by Coastalblue |
We had a visit tonight from the Office Of National Statistics guy, taking swab and blood tests for the Cambridge University research and I know a few on here are doing the same.
One of the things he said was that the 'flu rate was so low last winter that they have struggled to develop the vaccine for this winter. Aside from anything else this alone must suggest that wearing face masks on public transport as a minimum in the winter is a no brainer.
Sorry, a bit off topic for the thread but possibly relevant? |
Certainly worthy of a thread if you wish, quite a lot of discussion about it in this thread over the last few days if you're interested.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 22:30 - Oct 28 with 3509 views | StokieBlue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:26 - Oct 28 by nodge_blue |
Yes that seems to be the case. Especially with the new variants.
We will have it with us for the foreseeable. 20k every day suggested by someone.
But it may become less bad with more already had it or vaccinated. Even though we get it, the residual affects of the vaccine help against severe illness they think. |
The vaccine certainly helps with severe illness, that is without doubt.
However the study is unfortunately showing some signs that protection can start waning as soon as 3 months after the second dose.
Hopefully the next round of developed vaccines will be able to offer a longer protection time horizon.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 22:56 - Oct 28 with 3398 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:30 - Oct 28 by StokieBlue |
The vaccine certainly helps with severe illness, that is without doubt.
However the study is unfortunately showing some signs that protection can start waning as soon as 3 months after the second dose.
Hopefully the next round of developed vaccines will be able to offer a longer protection time horizon.
SB |
Out of interest, would you have 4 jabs a year if that is what it took? |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 22:58 - Oct 28 with 3387 views | StokieBlue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:56 - Oct 28 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Out of interest, would you have 4 jabs a year if that is what it took? |
I've not considered it but I don't see why I wouldn't spend 40 minutes out of the 525,600 minutes in a year having a jab. It took me 10 minutes each time including the cycle.
Out of interest, would you not have 4 jabs a year if that's what it took?
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 22:59 - Oct 28 with 3376 views | Illinoisblue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:56 - Oct 28 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Out of interest, would you have 4 jabs a year if that is what it took? |
If that’s what it comes to then there’s going to be problems. People just aren’t going to do that. |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 23:05 - Oct 28 with 3321 views | Coastalblue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:59 - Oct 28 by Illinoisblue |
If that’s what it comes to then there’s going to be problems. People just aren’t going to do that. |
Why ever not? | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 23:07 - Oct 28 with 3321 views | XYZ |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:30 - Oct 28 by StokieBlue |
The vaccine certainly helps with severe illness, that is without doubt.
However the study is unfortunately showing some signs that protection can start waning as soon as 3 months after the second dose.
Hopefully the next round of developed vaccines will be able to offer a longer protection time horizon.
SB |
Given the timescales it's not surprising the first wave of vaccines were not optimal. One would hope there's ongoing development using the mass of real-life evidence that will improve the length of protection.
Meanwhile policies to minimise transmission and the community viral load would appear to be a no-brainer.
I'll go 15th November for Johnson's u-turn on masks and social distancing. | | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 23:12 - Oct 28 with 3278 views | homer_123 |
Was reading those earlier. Cheers SB |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 23:27 - Oct 28 with 3237 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:59 - Oct 28 by Illinoisblue |
If that’s what it comes to then there’s going to be problems. People just aren’t going to do that. |
100 million in India have failed to show up for the second one so far. | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 23:28 - Oct 28 with 3231 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:58 - Oct 28 by StokieBlue |
I've not considered it but I don't see why I wouldn't spend 40 minutes out of the 525,600 minutes in a year having a jab. It took me 10 minutes each time including the cycle.
Out of interest, would you not have 4 jabs a year if that's what it took?
SB |
Probably not. | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 23:29 - Oct 28 with 3225 views | wkj |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:17 - Oct 28 by XYZ |
Did you follow the links? |
absolutely not, far too many clever words for me | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 23:30 - Oct 28 with 3215 views | Illinoisblue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 23:05 - Oct 28 by Coastalblue |
Why ever not? |
Because people are tired, sceptical, ignorant… take your pick | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 23:41 - Oct 28 with 3198 views | Digger77 |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:59 - Oct 28 by Illinoisblue |
If that’s what it comes to then there’s going to be problems. People just aren’t going to do that. |
Covid will end up resembling common cold by next spring as viruses get weaker as they spread around, so nobody will need a vaccine. | | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 00:14 - Oct 29 with 3085 views | StokieBlue |
Would you care to expand why not given you started with the leading question?
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 00:22 - Oct 29 with 3055 views | Illinoisblue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 23:41 - Oct 28 by Digger77 |
Covid will end up resembling common cold by next spring as viruses get weaker as they spread around, so nobody will need a vaccine. |
Not sure that’s in any way true or accurate but here’s hoping | |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 00:23 - Oct 29 with 3069 views | StokieBlue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 23:41 - Oct 28 by Digger77 |
Covid will end up resembling common cold by next spring as viruses get weaker as they spread around, so nobody will need a vaccine. |
Another covid-related falsehood from you, I make that 3 separate ones in the short time I've been back.
I know the statements you are basing this off and the two scientists clearly said "could" and neither mentioned not needing a vaccine.
It's often true that viruses get weaker but it's not a hard and fast rule. Many viruses stay virulent and deadly, if your assertion was correct then all viruses would be harmless and that is certainly not the case (see your false equivalence flu as an example). You often post these one-liners with no evidence as fact. You've done it with masks and natural immunity already and both times you were wrong (dangerously so).
The reason viruses become weaker in many cases is because they don't want to kill their hosts before they spread. That is less of an issue with the R of covid being so high, in fact there is scope for it to become more deadly because it spreads so easily. We simply don't know at the moment.
Continually downplaying the issues and posting glib one-liners with no evidence is dangerous and to be honest I find your posting around covid utterly disgusting.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 00:32 - Oct 29 with 3026 views | XYZ |
| Herd immunity from covid on 00:23 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
Another covid-related falsehood from you, I make that 3 separate ones in the short time I've been back.
I know the statements you are basing this off and the two scientists clearly said "could" and neither mentioned not needing a vaccine.
It's often true that viruses get weaker but it's not a hard and fast rule. Many viruses stay virulent and deadly, if your assertion was correct then all viruses would be harmless and that is certainly not the case (see your false equivalence flu as an example). You often post these one-liners with no evidence as fact. You've done it with masks and natural immunity already and both times you were wrong (dangerously so).
The reason viruses become weaker in many cases is because they don't want to kill their hosts before they spread. That is less of an issue with the R of covid being so high, in fact there is scope for it to become more deadly because it spreads so easily. We simply don't know at the moment.
Continually downplaying the issues and posting glib one-liners with no evidence is dangerous and to be honest I find your posting around covid utterly disgusting.
SB |
As you know, I'm a fan of your dedication to bring facts to TWTD.
One small point, without lessening the importance of your above gist, I'm not sure that attributing "wants" to viruses is the right message, whilst understanding your message.
It's a biological process. Darwin again. | | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 00:38 - Oct 29 with 3007 views | Digger77 |
| Herd immunity from covid on 00:23 - Oct 29 by StokieBlue |
Another covid-related falsehood from you, I make that 3 separate ones in the short time I've been back.
I know the statements you are basing this off and the two scientists clearly said "could" and neither mentioned not needing a vaccine.
It's often true that viruses get weaker but it's not a hard and fast rule. Many viruses stay virulent and deadly, if your assertion was correct then all viruses would be harmless and that is certainly not the case (see your false equivalence flu as an example). You often post these one-liners with no evidence as fact. You've done it with masks and natural immunity already and both times you were wrong (dangerously so).
The reason viruses become weaker in many cases is because they don't want to kill their hosts before they spread. That is less of an issue with the R of covid being so high, in fact there is scope for it to become more deadly because it spreads so easily. We simply don't know at the moment.
Continually downplaying the issues and posting glib one-liners with no evidence is dangerous and to be honest I find your posting around covid utterly disgusting.
SB |
Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert and Sir John Bell actually.
We don't need vaccines for common cold, do we? I'm not sure what your problem is. Cases are down again, promising news on treatments, the virus will get weaker by spring ... Things are looking up! | | | |
| Herd immunity from covid on 00:39 - Oct 29 with 2995 views | J2BLUE |
| Herd immunity from covid on 22:56 - Oct 28 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Out of interest, would you have 4 jabs a year if that is what it took? |
Of course. In the future it might mutate into a strain that is like the common cold but it's clearly not like that now. My nan has her booster at a pharmacy. I'm sure if 65 million of us need 4 vaccines a year we will see the vaccine rolled out to pretty much every pharmacy. You'll likely be able to book an appointment at a supermarket pharmacy and combine it with doing your shopping. It's an absolute no brainer. |  |
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| Herd immunity from covid on 00:39 - Oct 29 with 2995 views | StokieBlue |
| Herd immunity from covid on 00:32 - Oct 29 by XYZ |
As you know, I'm a fan of your dedication to bring facts to TWTD.
One small point, without lessening the importance of your above gist, I'm not sure that attributing "wants" to viruses is the right message, whilst understanding your message.
It's a biological process. Darwin again. |
Indeed, a poor choice of words, late at night when angry at an awful poster.
You are of course correct and thanks for the clarification. The strains which kill their host before they can spread will die out.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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