| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... 08:16 - Nov 23 with 2996 views | blueboyd |
for those who think we will, and I certainly don't - what have you seen this season to make you think that? - 6 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses. - that isn't play-off form so I am curious why you think we will get there.
Other than optimism of being a town fan which for a part I can understand, I don't see it at all. |  | | |  |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:20 - Nov 23 with 1682 views | Weekender |
Because its not unreasonable to think that this relatively recently assembled team (and whole off field staff for that matter) will improve as the season progresses. |  |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:26 - Nov 23 with 1647 views | FPL_Tractor |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:20 - Nov 23 by Weekender |
Because its not unreasonable to think that this relatively recently assembled team (and whole off field staff for that matter) will improve as the season progresses. |
And I think it's clear that performances have improved month by month. The results are less clear because our fixture list is rather clumpy with batches of easier looking games and batches of harder looking ones (like the league spell that we're in right now). |  |
| For more ITFC chat and some fantasy football mutterings follow me on twitter @fpl_tractor. |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:29 - Nov 23 with 1632 views | Chrisd |
Because the play offs aren’t finalised in November, there’s still plenty of points to play for (84), things can quickly change and why shouldn’t it be us? [Post edited 23 Nov 2021 8:31]
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:31 - Nov 23 with 1621 views | blueboyd |
3 replies so far and nothing convincing..... | | | |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:33 - Nov 23 with 1608 views | WD19 |
I have seen 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. The loss was a shambles and we should have walked to a win. One of the draws we chucked away with an individual error.
But even so, the play offs now look a real stretch. Saturday was a big blow and the pressure in the next few games is incredible. Our season could be over by January, or we could be in the beginning of a roll. |  | | |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:40 - Nov 23 with 1572 views | Chrisd |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:31 - Nov 23 by blueboyd |
3 replies so far and nothing convincing..... |
Let’s be honest, the replies could provide the most convincing of evidence, but you clearly think differently it’s not really going to matter what is posted you aren’t changing your opinion. That’s fine and you’re entitled to your view, like those of us who are far more positive than you. | |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:40 - Nov 23 with 1575 views | jayessess |
I'm more cynical than many about Cook but here's some rational reasons...
- We've had more or less play-off form post-Bolton (1.75 ppg - which is 81 over the course of a season) and that run of 12 games has included 6 games against top half sides, including 4 away from home. It's perfectly plausible that we'll improve on that as the season goes on, especially if we do strengthen again in January.
- We're probably getting fewer points than our under-lying performances would indicate. Whether you prefer the eye-test or the stats approach, we're taking very few points we don't deserve and chucking away a few that we do. Most "expected goals" tables have us 6 points and up to half a dozen places under what you might expect and you'd hope that to even out over time. |  |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:41 - Nov 23 with 1568 views | blueboyd |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:33 - Nov 23 by WD19 |
I have seen 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. The loss was a shambles and we should have walked to a win. One of the draws we chucked away with an individual error.
But even so, the play offs now look a real stretch. Saturday was a big blow and the pressure in the next few games is incredible. Our season could be over by January, or we could be in the beginning of a roll. |
to me the play-offs need really decent form and something we don't have and consistently under Cook we never have. that is the reason I question the thoughts that people 'think' we will be in the play-offs.
As a set of fans, starved of quality do some believe that points are gained for playing better football? I would rather watch hoof ball and be top. We need to get out of this league at all costs and this season. | | | |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:43 - Nov 23 with 1554 views | Chrisd |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:41 - Nov 23 by blueboyd |
to me the play-offs need really decent form and something we don't have and consistently under Cook we never have. that is the reason I question the thoughts that people 'think' we will be in the play-offs.
As a set of fans, starved of quality do some believe that points are gained for playing better football? I would rather watch hoof ball and be top. We need to get out of this league at all costs and this season. |
Decent form in November? I’m waiting for those to start suggesting Charlton are play off bound when a month to 6 weeks ago they were in the bottom 4! That’s how quickly it can all change. [Post edited 23 Nov 2021 8:43]
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:47 - Nov 23 with 1540 views | Herbivore |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:40 - Nov 23 by jayessess |
I'm more cynical than many about Cook but here's some rational reasons...
- We've had more or less play-off form post-Bolton (1.75 ppg - which is 81 over the course of a season) and that run of 12 games has included 6 games against top half sides, including 4 away from home. It's perfectly plausible that we'll improve on that as the season goes on, especially if we do strengthen again in January.
- We're probably getting fewer points than our under-lying performances would indicate. Whether you prefer the eye-test or the stats approach, we're taking very few points we don't deserve and chucking away a few that we do. Most "expected goals" tables have us 6 points and up to half a dozen places under what you might expect and you'd hope that to even out over time. |
Presumably if that run of 12 games has included 6 against top half sides it's also included 6 against bottom half sides, which means it is just a pretty standard run of games. We've played 3 of the bottom 4 at home in that run and that's accounted for half of our wins this season. And whilst our form over those 12 games would be enough for the play offs if we'd started with that kind of form too, our poor start means that kind of form over our remaining fixtures will see us fall short.
Of course it is quite possible we improve further and make the play offs still. We're falling away but not so much so that it's insurmountable, especially with this squad, but at the minute it feels as though we're just as capable of putting together an indifferent run where we lose more ground as we are of putting together a sustained run of excellent form. |  |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:49 - Nov 23 with 1531 views | Oldboy |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:31 - Nov 23 by blueboyd |
3 replies so far and nothing convincing..... |
We have Walton in goal. We would be at least 9 points better off if we had him from the start. Edmundson is getting better and either Toto or Burgess need a run of games with him and a solid partnership will be formed. Are full backs are a problem which I am sure Cook is aware of. Our "midfield 5" are starting to gel. Supply to Bonne needs to improve, which it will. Coming up to January, so Cook will bring in the couple needed to take us to the next level. I think top 6 is realistic at this stage, not a pipe dream.
No manager in the history of football has got every signing right first time of asking. Even Fergie got some wrong.
Plenty of games to play and things will get better. Hope that answers some of your doubts. |  | | |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:50 - Nov 23 with 1526 views | ArnieM |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:31 - Nov 23 by blueboyd |
3 replies so far and nothing convincing..... |
Well what have you got to offer then? |  |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:52 - Nov 23 with 1526 views | Guthrum |
It's a matter of trends.
For the first six games of the season, we were W0 D3 L3.
Since then we are P12 W6 D3 L3, which is thoroughly playoff form.
The first six will be a millstone around our necks, dragging League position down, but if we can sustain our form since over the remaining 28 games, then we are in with a good chance.
I doubt all the teams above us will have flawless campaigns, either. That only extremely rarely happens. |  |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:53 - Nov 23 with 1518 views | Jon_456 |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:41 - Nov 23 by blueboyd |
to me the play-offs need really decent form and something we don't have and consistently under Cook we never have. that is the reason I question the thoughts that people 'think' we will be in the play-offs.
As a set of fans, starved of quality do some believe that points are gained for playing better football? I would rather watch hoof ball and be top. We need to get out of this league at all costs and this season. |
Our of curiosity, why do we need to get out of this league at all costs this season? Sure, it would be preferable and would definitely be seen as a failure if Cook doesnt get us promoted this season, but success isnt built overnight.
Im not saying Cook is the answer but realistically whoever came in, or does come in in the near future, will need time. Think people forget it wasnt just the squad that needed re-building, the whole club was a mess and that takes time to address. | | | |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:54 - Nov 23 with 1516 views | Churchman |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:41 - Nov 23 by blueboyd |
to me the play-offs need really decent form and something we don't have and consistently under Cook we never have. that is the reason I question the thoughts that people 'think' we will be in the play-offs.
As a set of fans, starved of quality do some believe that points are gained for playing better football? I would rather watch hoof ball and be top. We need to get out of this league at all costs and this season. |
It’s not an either or. It is possible to play decent football and be top. That should be the objective.
It’s also possible to play hoofball and lose every week as Cardiff under MM have just proved.
We just need a team with a bit of balance that can win week in week out, grinding results out when playing poorly, smashing teams when playing well. We are short on the former and I don’t think we have enough to get out of the division this year - but you never know. Stranger things have happened. Portsmouth and Charlton are piling up the league and look at them a month ago. |  | | |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:58 - Nov 23 with 1505 views | Whos_blue |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:41 - Nov 23 by blueboyd |
to me the play-offs need really decent form and something we don't have and consistently under Cook we never have. that is the reason I question the thoughts that people 'think' we will be in the play-offs.
As a set of fans, starved of quality do some believe that points are gained for playing better football? I would rather watch hoof ball and be top. We need to get out of this league at all costs and this season. |
I'm firmly in the eye test gang rather than the stats gang. That said, I'll happily accept the stats for this season could be better.
You mention you would rather play hoofball and get out of this league. Do you really mean that?
The quality of the football has been dire for many seasons now. Whilst we might not be picking up the points we'd like, I like watching us sticking to our attacking plan.
If we did go up playing hoofball, then what?
Do we then make wholesale player and formation changes for the next season? Surely that puts us back where we are now?
Of course I'd like to be celebrating something at the end of the season, but is it "at all costs"? I'm not sure I'm hearing that from the club. |  |
| Distortion becomes somehow pure in its wildness. |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:58 - Nov 23 with 1503 views | ArnieM |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:49 - Nov 23 by Oldboy |
We have Walton in goal. We would be at least 9 points better off if we had him from the start. Edmundson is getting better and either Toto or Burgess need a run of games with him and a solid partnership will be formed. Are full backs are a problem which I am sure Cook is aware of. Our "midfield 5" are starting to gel. Supply to Bonne needs to improve, which it will. Coming up to January, so Cook will bring in the couple needed to take us to the next level. I think top 6 is realistic at this stage, not a pipe dream.
No manager in the history of football has got every signing right first time of asking. Even Fergie got some wrong.
Plenty of games to play and things will get better. Hope that answers some of your doubts. |
Good post. I think even Cook himself alluded to the fact they might not get all the signings “ correct”. The Club are going by a data approach I believe, and sometimes players just don’t replicate that at their new club. A classic example for us atm is Pigott .
As I’ve said many times before, it’s not even the half way stage and we are not out of touch with the top six. However, we do need to string a run together sometime soon. I think he’s not got his first 11 sorted out yet. Is that unreasonable given the quality of the squad he has at his disposal and it only 18 games. We are we’re we are now not because of how we are playing now, but how we gave gams away from winning positions in those first 7 games. I think many on here calculated it as something like 15 points. So stick that 9n our total now and where would that place us ! [Post edited 23 Nov 2021 9:00]
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:58 - Nov 23 with 1507 views | Herbivore |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:52 - Nov 23 by Guthrum |
It's a matter of trends.
For the first six games of the season, we were W0 D3 L3.
Since then we are P12 W6 D3 L3, which is thoroughly playoff form.
The first six will be a millstone around our necks, dragging League position down, but if we can sustain our form since over the remaining 28 games, then we are in with a good chance.
I doubt all the teams above us will have flawless campaigns, either. That only extremely rarely happens. |
Our form over the last 12 games sustained over the rest of the season would see us get to 73 points. I can't see that being enough for the top 6 this season. | |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 09:00 - Nov 23 with 1493 views | jayessess |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:47 - Nov 23 by Herbivore |
Presumably if that run of 12 games has included 6 against top half sides it's also included 6 against bottom half sides, which means it is just a pretty standard run of games. We've played 3 of the bottom 4 at home in that run and that's accounted for half of our wins this season. And whilst our form over those 12 games would be enough for the play offs if we'd started with that kind of form too, our poor start means that kind of form over our remaining fixtures will see us fall short.
Of course it is quite possible we improve further and make the play offs still. We're falling away but not so much so that it's insurmountable, especially with this squad, but at the minute it feels as though we're just as capable of putting together an indifferent run where we lose more ground as we are of putting together a sustained run of excellent form. |
I'd say the balance of home/away fixtures probably makes it a trickier run than standard, but in any case, if you're sustaining play-off form over a standard run of fixtures, then the improvement required is nothing out of this world. | |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 09:01 - Nov 23 with 1490 views | ArnieM |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:53 - Nov 23 by Jon_456 |
Our of curiosity, why do we need to get out of this league at all costs this season? Sure, it would be preferable and would definitely be seen as a failure if Cook doesnt get us promoted this season, but success isnt built overnight.
Im not saying Cook is the answer but realistically whoever came in, or does come in in the near future, will need time. Think people forget it wasnt just the squad that needed re-building, the whole club was a mess and that takes time to address. |
EXACTLY THIS ^^^^^^^ | |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 09:12 - Nov 23 with 1418 views | Herbivore |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 09:00 - Nov 23 by jayessess |
I'd say the balance of home/away fixtures probably makes it a trickier run than standard, but in any case, if you're sustaining play-off form over a standard run of fixtures, then the improvement required is nothing out of this world. |
I'd say playing 3 of the bottom 4 at home rather counteracts the tricky fixtures, for me it's a fairly standard run of games which I guess is what you'd expect from a sample that's essentially a quarter of a season.
We need to improve further if we are going to make the play offs and I guess the question is whether we can do that and sustain it. I hope so but I'm not confident. | |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 09:14 - Nov 23 with 1412 views | HighgateBlue |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:52 - Nov 23 by Guthrum |
It's a matter of trends.
For the first six games of the season, we were W0 D3 L3.
Since then we are P12 W6 D3 L3, which is thoroughly playoff form.
The first six will be a millstone around our necks, dragging League position down, but if we can sustain our form since over the remaining 28 games, then we are in with a good chance.
I doubt all the teams above us will have flawless campaigns, either. That only extremely rarely happens. |
21 points from every 12 games from the /start/ of the season is likely to get you in the playoffs (80 points over the season). But I don't think that ratio from the Lincoln game onwards would get us in the playoffs.
As I posted yesterday, 21 points from 12 games is 1.75 points per game. Now I am content to accept the cherry picking of arbitrarily taking the cut off straight after Bolton. But 1.75 points per game for the rest of the season would leave us on 73 points. I really don't see that as enough this season, given how the sides above us are doing. One third of the league is currently doing enough to head for more than 73 points. We are not amongst them.
So are you saying that 73 points will be enough, or are you saying that we will improve from the 12 games you cite? |  | | |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 09:14 - Nov 23 with 1409 views | Herbivore |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:53 - Nov 23 by Jon_456 |
Our of curiosity, why do we need to get out of this league at all costs this season? Sure, it would be preferable and would definitely be seen as a failure if Cook doesnt get us promoted this season, but success isnt built overnight.
Im not saying Cook is the answer but realistically whoever came in, or does come in in the near future, will need time. Think people forget it wasnt just the squad that needed re-building, the whole club was a mess and that takes time to address. |
The longterm build becomes more challenging the longer we stay at this level. The longterm aim isn't to get out of League 1, it's to get us back to the Prem. Trying to build a squad capable of that whilst still stuck in League 1 is not really feasible. We'll likely see a fair turnover in the squad again this summer if we don't go up. | |
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| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 09:19 - Nov 23 with 1347 views | Guthrum |
| "I think we will be in the Play-Offs" a question.... on 08:58 - Nov 23 by Herbivore |
Our form over the last 12 games sustained over the rest of the season would see us get to 73 points. I can't see that being enough for the top 6 this season. |
That would make it an unusual season. About two-thirds of recent seasons it would be enough and most of the rest only a couple of points outside tge top six.
We are likely to continue improving as the squad knits closer together. Those above can only slip up. | |
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| Its quite simple... on 09:23 - Nov 23 with 1331 views | unstableblue |
Portsmouth W - 4-0; a great Town performance in the second half. Blew a promotion rival away - look streets ahead
Fleetwood W 2-1; despite an equaliser heads did not drop, lots of positives, first back to back wins
Plymouth L 1-2; I didn't go to the game, so cannot comment on or progress and development in this game. I understand we were strong at times, but a loss
Wycombe W - 4-1; probably the best Town performance I can remember in years, a STRONG opposition, but we slowly dominated the midfield, and attacking with pace and dynamism that we have all craved, beat a FORM team, a promotion - you HAD to be there physically
Oxford D - 0-0; we weathered an early storm against a well drilled and good Oxford promotion rival, without real issue again, then completely took over the match, but Oxford went full dark arts to stop our rythm and it worked
Sunderland L - 0-2; you had to be there, as strong and dominant performance away from home as I can remember 2 crystal clear cut chances for celina which would have won it, a Walton howler and we lose
So WWLWDL - and WLWDL against promotion rivals
Not good enough for play-offs in my mind... but key injuries and enough signs in those displays to suggest we can remain in the mix, we looked significantly better than Sunderland, Pompey, Wycombe, and in part Oxford.
Tonight we'll see how we really stack up against THE best team in the league. It will add to the assessment you can make of the games above.
If we come into January still in sight of the play-offs (6/7 points), I think we've got a great chance.... cut adrift and I'd join the chorus of concern. But I go from what I see on the pitch and what is still possible in the table.
COYFB! [Post edited 23 Nov 2021 9:25]
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