| A positive twist on the stats 14:34 - Nov 29 with 6946 views | SomethingBlue |
(Buried a version of this deep in an earlier thread although I was actually one off with one of the figures)
If we carry on our PPG rate since Bolton — 14 games so a reasonable sample size — over the next 26 games we will get 45 more points, meaning we end up on 72. That won't be enough for the play-offs but something between one and two wins on top of that should be, we're looking at 75-78 points for that. Put like this it looks more reasonable to suggest that a pretty small improvement on top of what we are showing now, over a significantly longer run of games, would see us competing in May.
And yes, this is not where any of us wanted to be or thought we'd be ... [Post edited 29 Nov 2021 14:35]
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:39 - Nov 29 with 2325 views | Chocorange |
Prepare to get shouted down , it doesn’t fit the narrative round here .
Heaven forbid you mention we are the leagues top scorers either . |  | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:41 - Nov 29 with 2315 views | Mullet |
It’s the thinnest of thin gruel though isn’t it? Possible but is it probable?
Thus far you’d suggest not given what we’ve seen from our rivals etc. Even if it does come to pass it’s the hollowest of victories given where we should be. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:41 - Nov 29 with 2309 views | hype313 |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:39 - Nov 29 by Chocorange |
Prepare to get shouted down , it doesn’t fit the narrative round here .
Heaven forbid you mention we are the leagues top scorers either . |
We're not though. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:42 - Nov 29 with 2312 views | SomethingBlue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:39 - Nov 29 by Chocorange |
Prepare to get shouted down , it doesn’t fit the narrative round here .
Heaven forbid you mention we are the leagues top scorers either . |
Second now behind MK Dons but yes, still up there!
We have problems and I've certainly been among those strongly lamenting them but the amount of improvement needed might not be quite as vast as some fear. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:43 - Nov 29 with 2284 views | Herbivore |
It's gets us to 71.5 points, think that extra 0.5 of a point puts it out of reach for us.
I think my worry is that we don't feel much further forward, I don't see a more cohesive team now than I did 6 weeks ago. If anything the last couple of games have felt like a step backwards. We're 12th in the form table with 7 points from our last 6 games, which also suggests we've not pushed on and if anything we've regressed.
I really hope we still turn it around and push on up the table. These next 3 games feel important, and if we get 3 points or fewer we'll have it all to do to even have a sniff of 6th place. I'd be tempted to make a change if that's the case. I have close to zero faith in Cook based on his time here to date but if we could take 6 or 7 points from this run of 3 games it'd be a small step forward and hopefully something to build on. Too many false dawns so far. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:44 - Nov 29 with 2286 views | SomethingBlue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:41 - Nov 29 by Mullet |
It’s the thinnest of thin gruel though isn’t it? Possible but is it probable?
Thus far you’d suggest not given what we’ve seen from our rivals etc. Even if it does come to pass it’s the hollowest of victories given where we should be. |
Oh look, I'd rather not be straining like that! But it does suggest that we don't need to find a tremendous improvement to make the top six, just a small one. I don't rule us out at all, we're so hard to read. Such a massive shame that the top two has basically gone though. | |
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| Football isn't about "narratives"..... on 14:44 - Nov 29 with 2279 views | Bloots |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:39 - Nov 29 by Chocorange |
Prepare to get shouted down , it doesn’t fit the narrative round here .
Heaven forbid you mention we are the leagues top scorers either . |
....it's about results and ultimately league tables.
Currently we're 11th in the 3rd Division, that's the only stat you need worry about. |  |
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| Football isn't about "narratives"..... on 14:46 - Nov 29 with 2252 views | positivity |
| Football isn't about "narratives"..... on 14:44 - Nov 29 by Bloots |
....it's about results and ultimately league tables.
Currently we're 11th in the 3rd Division, that's the only stat you need worry about. |
nearly.
it's about results and the *ultimate* league table, that's the only stat we need to worry about! | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:47 - Nov 29 with 2239 views | Vaughan8 |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:41 - Nov 29 by hype313 |
We're not though. |
This and no team above us has close to our goals against total.........
in 11 of our 20 games we've conceded 2 or more goals. over half!
The only teams we've beaten at home are the bottom 3 plus Shrewsbury which have 1 win between them away....
To be honest this season has had so many twists I have no idea what is going to heppen. Definitely need to stop conceding. | | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:48 - Nov 29 with 2228 views | homer_123 |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:44 - Nov 29 by SomethingBlue |
Oh look, I'd rather not be straining like that! But it does suggest that we don't need to find a tremendous improvement to make the top six, just a small one. I don't rule us out at all, we're so hard to read. Such a massive shame that the top two has basically gone though. |
God, I hope Cook can deliver, I really do. I think, however, positioning this as a 'small one' in terms of improvement is under playing what we need. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:48 - Nov 29 with 2225 views | tractorboy1978 |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:44 - Nov 29 by SomethingBlue |
Oh look, I'd rather not be straining like that! But it does suggest that we don't need to find a tremendous improvement to make the top six, just a small one. I don't rule us out at all, we're so hard to read. Such a massive shame that the top two has basically gone though. |
I think we will know by the end of this year if we have a proper shot or not. If we finish December with 10+ points from the below we are in the mix and will have played 2 of the current top 6 twice. We have virtually zero margin for error against the current bottom 12 though. We need to be putting these sides to the sword and with some swagger.
Charlton (a)
Wigan (a)
Sunderland (h)
Gillingham (a)
Wycombe (h) [Post edited 29 Nov 2021 14:50]
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:48 - Nov 29 with 2223 views | Sawtrich |
Yeah, we still need to improve. I think everyone realises that. The play offs is a bit of lottery even if we do somehow get there. Call me old fashioned but getting promoted is about being one of the best three teams in the division, we are nowhere near that. |  | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:52 - Nov 29 with 2172 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:48 - Nov 29 by homer_123 |
God, I hope Cook can deliver, I really do. I think, however, positioning this as a 'small one' in terms of improvement is under playing what we need. |
not really, we have to do what we've been doing since bolton, then win an extra game we'd have lost in that time.
maybe celina would've scored one of his sitters against sunderland? that'd do it!
i don't know what i'm worrying about! | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:54 - Nov 29 with 2155 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:44 - Nov 29 by SomethingBlue |
Oh look, I'd rather not be straining like that! But it does suggest that we don't need to find a tremendous improvement to make the top six, just a small one. I don't rule us out at all, we're so hard to read. Such a massive shame that the top two has basically gone though. |
Currently MK Dons in 6th are on for 82 points, and whilst I expect that will tail off a little, I think we could well need 77 or 78 points to make the top 6 this year. To get to 77 points we need another 50 points from our 26 remaining games, just shy of 2 points per game. It's not impossible but would require 14 wins, 8 draws, and 4 defeats, or 15 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats. That means going the rest of the season with fewer defeats than we've amassed in our opening 20 games and more or less doubling our number of wins. It's a tough ask and could still see us narrowly miss out if the top 6 maintain their current form. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:54 - Nov 29 with 2159 views | Mullet |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:44 - Nov 29 by SomethingBlue |
Oh look, I'd rather not be straining like that! But it does suggest that we don't need to find a tremendous improvement to make the top six, just a small one. I don't rule us out at all, we're so hard to read. Such a massive shame that the top two has basically gone though. |
It’s also off the back of a November with a goal dearth in the league and anything that resembles improvement shimmering in the distance. The last two games have been very worrying performances for different reasons.
Top two going before March would be gutting, but November? It’s a sin.
At least we should be the form team going in eh? | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:54 - Nov 29 with 2145 views | homer_123 |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:52 - Nov 29 by positivity |
not really, we have to do what we've been doing since bolton, then win an extra game we'd have lost in that time.
maybe celina would've scored one of his sitters against sunderland? that'd do it!
i don't know what i'm worrying about! |
You are a more positive person than I! | |
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| Football isn't about "narratives"..... on 14:57 - Nov 29 with 2109 views | BlueBadger |
| Football isn't about "narratives"..... on 14:46 - Nov 29 by positivity |
nearly.
it's about results and the *ultimate* league table, that's the only stat we need to worry about! |
Ah yes, the old truism that no-one is promoted in November. That's sure true. But you can, say chuck away your hopes of automatic promotion and given yourself a mountain to climb for the playoff in November.
We are 11th in the 3rd division, 7 points adrift of the top 6, having played at least one game more than 4 of the sides occupying it. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 14:59 - Nov 29 with 2091 views | SomethingBlue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:54 - Nov 29 by Herbivore |
Currently MK Dons in 6th are on for 82 points, and whilst I expect that will tail off a little, I think we could well need 77 or 78 points to make the top 6 this year. To get to 77 points we need another 50 points from our 26 remaining games, just shy of 2 points per game. It's not impossible but would require 14 wins, 8 draws, and 4 defeats, or 15 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats. That means going the rest of the season with fewer defeats than we've amassed in our opening 20 games and more or less doubling our number of wins. It's a tough ask and could still see us narrowly miss out if the top 6 maintain their current form. |
Yep I think it's probably 77 or 78 too. I think it's doable based on continuing the run we've been on, plus an extra result or two. But I agree with you and others that the next few games are really important, if we pull off a couple of wins from the next three then suddenly we are not so badly placed (relatively). But we can't start falling further behind than this, we'll soon start running out of chances. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 15:01 - Nov 29 with 2065 views | jayessess |
I think of it in terms of how long a winning streak would you need to get back to where you want to be. 7 points to 6th, 6th is usually 1.6 points per game, so that 5 wins to be back there. 11 points to 2nd, 2nd is usually 1.9 points per game, so 10 game winning streak required (lol). |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 15:15 - Nov 29 with 1972 views | Fixed_It |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:48 - Nov 29 by Sawtrich |
Yeah, we still need to improve. I think everyone realises that. The play offs is a bit of lottery even if we do somehow get there. Call me old fashioned but getting promoted is about being one of the best three teams in the division, we are nowhere near that. |
If we reach the play-offs we will be playing better than we are now. I think we can all agree on that. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 15:17 - Nov 29 with 1957 views | jeera |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:39 - Nov 29 by Chocorange |
Prepare to get shouted down , it doesn’t fit the narrative round here .
Heaven forbid you mention we are the leagues top scorers either . |
"Narrative". What narrative?
Why do things always go this way?
No one here wants Town to underachieve. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 15:17 - Nov 29 with 1954 views | AlanG296 |
| A positive twist on the stats on 15:15 - Nov 29 by Fixed_It |
If we reach the play-offs we will be playing better than we are now. I think we can all agree on that. |
Perhaps it's best to reach the playoffs the hard way, scraping 6th with a good late run and taking that momentum into the playoffs. | | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 15:24 - Nov 29 with 1916 views | Skip_Intro |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:48 - Nov 29 by tractorboy1978 |
I think we will know by the end of this year if we have a proper shot or not. If we finish December with 10+ points from the below we are in the mix and will have played 2 of the current top 6 twice. We have virtually zero margin for error against the current bottom 12 though. We need to be putting these sides to the sword and with some swagger.
Charlton (a)
Wigan (a)
Sunderland (h)
Gillingham (a)
Wycombe (h) [Post edited 29 Nov 2021 14:50]
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We are currently c9/10 points off the playoffs if the teams above win their games in hand (which is not unlikely) and 7 points off even if they don't.
So even if we somehow manage to take 10 points from the next 5 games, we'd only be in the mix if every team above us loses most, if not all of their corresponding fixtures...for us to be 'in the mix' would require 15 points and virtually all of the teams above us to go on a run of 5 poor results - bit of a stretch if you ask me!! |  | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 15:27 - Nov 29 with 1924 views | PhilTWTD |
I don't think it's unreasonable to expect more than a pretty small improvement as the season progresses. Indeed, I doubt PC will still be here without one. Certainly it's always been viewed as a season of development even if from a higher early season base than ended up being the case. |  | | |
| Which season's league table..... on 15:31 - Nov 29 with 1849 views | Bloots |
| Football isn't about "narratives"..... on 14:46 - Nov 29 by positivity |
nearly.
it's about results and the *ultimate* league table, that's the only stat we need to worry about! |
....is the "ultimate" one though?
Last season? - Nah, different squad.
This season? - Nah, gelling innit.
Next season? - Yeah probably (but if we are mid table in December, it'll be the season after)
We can't just keep plodding on like this year after year, gradually dropping further and further down the leagues. [Post edited 29 Nov 2021 15:32]
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