| A positive twist on the stats 14:34 - Nov 29 with 8504 views | SomethingBlue |
(Buried a version of this deep in an earlier thread although I was actually one off with one of the figures)
If we carry on our PPG rate since Bolton — 14 games so a reasonable sample size — over the next 26 games we will get 45 more points, meaning we end up on 72. That won't be enough for the play-offs but something between one and two wins on top of that should be, we're looking at 75-78 points for that. Put like this it looks more reasonable to suggest that a pretty small improvement on top of what we are showing now, over a significantly longer run of games, would see us competing in May.
And yes, this is not where any of us wanted to be or thought we'd be ... [Post edited 29 Nov 2021 14:35]
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| A positive twist on the stats on 15:32 - Nov 29 with 2626 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 15:24 - Nov 29 by Skip_Intro |
We are currently c9/10 points off the playoffs if the teams above win their games in hand (which is not unlikely) and 7 points off even if they don't.
So even if we somehow manage to take 10 points from the next 5 games, we'd only be in the mix if every team above us loses most, if not all of their corresponding fixtures...for us to be 'in the mix' would require 15 points and virtually all of the teams above us to go on a run of 5 poor results - bit of a stretch if you ask me!! |
depends what you count as being "in the mix". remember we don't have to be in the top 6 at the end of december!
i can guarantee sunderland and oxford won't both win their games in hand! | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 15:33 - Nov 29 with 2638 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 15:27 - Nov 29 by PhilTWTD |
I don't think it's unreasonable to expect more than a pretty small improvement as the season progresses. Indeed, I doubt PC will still be here without one. Certainly it's always been viewed as a season of development even if from a higher early season base than ended up being the case. |
The last two performances have felt like a regression though, Phil. And results have clearly slipped regardless of caveats about bad luck and tough fixtures. The next three games definitely feel big, need to show we can bounce back and string some good results together. If we don't win any of these and fall further behind then it's hard to see how we might salvage the season. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 15:34 - Nov 29 with 2627 views | clive_baker |
Like the positivity, but however you want to cut it we're 11th in L1 going into December, which frankly is crap.
I do think however, since Bolton we've only been outplayed once in 19 games (all comps) and that was vs. Rotherham. My frustration is that I don't see improvement, if anything I think we've got worse. We're flat track bullies, as we were under Lambert, we're scraping past the dross thanks to a very expensively assembled squad, and largely struggling against the half decent sides like Oxford, Rotherham, Plymouth, Sunderland etc. We've played 7 of the current top 8 and only managed to win 1.
What's changed? At least Lambert could blame the owner. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 15:42 - Nov 29 with 2616 views | PhilTWTD |
| A positive twist on the stats on 15:33 - Nov 29 by Herbivore |
The last two performances have felt like a regression though, Phil. And results have clearly slipped regardless of caveats about bad luck and tough fixtures. The next three games definitely feel big, need to show we can bounce back and string some good results together. If we don't win any of these and fall further behind then it's hard to see how we might salvage the season. |
I think that's probably reading too much into two games, but time will tell on that. Rotherham were much better than us, I think that was clear, and the narrative of the game played into their hands. Once they scored they showed they're very capable of being very organised and frustrating and grabbing something at the other end when a chance comes. From what I've seen they look a fair bit better than the other challengers, not just us.
Yesterday, we were good in patches and deserved to win more comfortably, but we allowed Crewe to have more of the game and more threat than they ought. As I said, I don't think bringing Fraser into the middle did us any favours from that perspective. I reckon something like 5-2 might have been a fairer reflection of the game overall. |  | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 15:53 - Nov 29 with 2575 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 15:42 - Nov 29 by PhilTWTD |
I think that's probably reading too much into two games, but time will tell on that. Rotherham were much better than us, I think that was clear, and the narrative of the game played into their hands. Once they scored they showed they're very capable of being very organised and frustrating and grabbing something at the other end when a chance comes. From what I've seen they look a fair bit better than the other challengers, not just us.
Yesterday, we were good in patches and deserved to win more comfortably, but we allowed Crewe to have more of the game and more threat than they ought. As I said, I don't think bringing Fraser into the middle did us any favours from that perspective. I reckon something like 5-2 might have been a fairer reflection of the game overall. |
It's more those two performances coming off the back of 4 points from 4 games leading up to them. Things have stalled at a time we needed to be kicking on. I think you probably feel more positively about yesterday's game than I do. And Rotherham are the best side in the league currently but to get dominated like that by them on our own patch is not where anyone wanted or expected us to be at this stage. It's all very, very underwhelming. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 15:58 - Nov 29 with 2556 views | Skip_Intro |
| A positive twist on the stats on 15:53 - Nov 29 by Herbivore |
It's more those two performances coming off the back of 4 points from 4 games leading up to them. Things have stalled at a time we needed to be kicking on. I think you probably feel more positively about yesterday's game than I do. And Rotherham are the best side in the league currently but to get dominated like that by them on our own patch is not where anyone wanted or expected us to be at this stage. It's all very, very underwhelming. |
Let's not forget two terrible performances against Oldham from virtually full strength teams in the middle of the league performances... |  | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 16:00 - Nov 29 with 2564 views | PhilTWTD |
| A positive twist on the stats on 15:53 - Nov 29 by Herbivore |
It's more those two performances coming off the back of 4 points from 4 games leading up to them. Things have stalled at a time we needed to be kicking on. I think you probably feel more positively about yesterday's game than I do. And Rotherham are the best side in the league currently but to get dominated like that by them on our own patch is not where anyone wanted or expected us to be at this stage. It's all very, very underwhelming. |
I don't disagree we needed to push on and I was actually more frustrated at not turning Sunderland into a win than losing to Rotherham. How often away from home against one of the top sides does a team create four or five very decent chances and prevent the opposition from having a shot on target for 85 minutes? It took some doing to lose that game 2-0. | | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 16:13 - Nov 29 with 2527 views | Ryorry |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:47 - Nov 29 by Vaughan8 |
This and no team above us has close to our goals against total.........
in 11 of our 20 games we've conceded 2 or more goals. over half!
The only teams we've beaten at home are the bottom 3 plus Shrewsbury which have 1 win between them away....
To be honest this season has had so many twists I have no idea what is going to heppen. Definitely need to stop conceding. |
*But* - something I think hasn't registered with you & maybe a few other people too - since Walton took over as no. 1 from Hladky, we've conceded only 9 in 8 league games.
That's the greatest area of improvement that I can see, & I think if we can keep that going we'll defo make the playoffs. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 16:24 - Nov 29 with 2505 views | Vaughan8 |
| A positive twist on the stats on 16:13 - Nov 29 by Ryorry |
*But* - something I think hasn't registered with you & maybe a few other people too - since Walton took over as no. 1 from Hladky, we've conceded only 9 in 8 league games.
That's the greatest area of improvement that I can see, & I think if we can keep that going we'll defo make the playoffs. |
Well you can spin stats how you want. He's only kept 2 clean sheets in those games. same as Hladky.
Also he was in goal for the 5-2 thrashing so lets call it 14 goals in 9 games.
However you look at it, over 1 goal a game is still not very good is it? | | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 17:56 - Nov 29 with 2457 views | The_Romford_Blue |
Unfortunately I don’t think this is the place for positivity right now. It’s the most negative I’ve ever seen the forum (or from a select few who post more than anyone else perhaps). I’m not entirely sure it’s just Ipswich though - it’s the same with the covid outlook on here pretty much all year. It’s the general outlook unfortunately |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 18:06 - Nov 29 with 2438 views | Illinoisblue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 17:56 - Nov 29 by The_Romford_Blue |
Unfortunately I don’t think this is the place for positivity right now. It’s the most negative I’ve ever seen the forum (or from a select few who post more than anyone else perhaps). I’m not entirely sure it’s just Ipswich though - it’s the same with the covid outlook on here pretty much all year. It’s the general outlook unfortunately |
And what, pray tell, is it about struggling in the third tier that might make people negative? |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 18:29 - Nov 29 with 2423 views | Skip_Intro |
| A positive twist on the stats on 17:56 - Nov 29 by The_Romford_Blue |
Unfortunately I don’t think this is the place for positivity right now. It’s the most negative I’ve ever seen the forum (or from a select few who post more than anyone else perhaps). I’m not entirely sure it’s just Ipswich though - it’s the same with the covid outlook on here pretty much all year. It’s the general outlook unfortunately |
Even more negative than the end of the Lambert era? I don't think so.
Nothing to do with Covid - all to do with the continued underachievement of our club after a very bright, but ultimately seemingly false dawn.
We are mid table in the third tier, despite significant investment in a very strong squad, we lack any kind of consistency and appear to have a manager who is tactically inept and unwilling/unable to see the need for flexibility.
PC has had almost 40 games now with no signs of any kind of continuous improvement, rather one step forward and two steps back, despite how heavily he has been backed.
I think that is the reason for the negativity rather than Covid... | | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 18:34 - Nov 29 with 2410 views | Ryorry |
| A positive twist on the stats on 16:24 - Nov 29 by Vaughan8 |
Well you can spin stats how you want. He's only kept 2 clean sheets in those games. same as Hladky.
Also he was in goal for the 5-2 thrashing so lets call it 14 goals in 9 games.
However you look at it, over 1 goal a game is still not very good is it? |
The 2-5 v Bolton was his first ever game for us on 11th Sept., our 6th league game of the season. People commented on him seeming nervous on his first appearance for us, which I think is understandable.
That as opposed to his games 13-20 from 19th Oct -28th Nov. In a way you help make my point, as he's obviously dramatically improved since that first game.
Obviously there's room for further improvement again, as with all players - if that comes, it'll obviously increase our chances of making the POs. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 18:41 - Nov 29 with 2387 views | BlueBadger |
| A positive twist on the stats on 17:56 - Nov 29 by The_Romford_Blue |
Unfortunately I don’t think this is the place for positivity right now. It’s the most negative I’ve ever seen the forum (or from a select few who post more than anyone else perhaps). I’m not entirely sure it’s just Ipswich though - it’s the same with the covid outlook on here pretty much all year. It’s the general outlook unfortunately |
What is it you're most enjoying about being a mid-table third division side?
For the third season running. [Post edited 29 Nov 2021 18:47]
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| A positive twist on the stats on 18:47 - Nov 29 with 2380 views | Pinewoodblue |
The original post is flawed. Those two extra wins would most probably be wins that would otherwise have been draws. We need to win an extra 3 games and even then no guarantee it would be enough.
There is also the little matter of then beating a team over two games and winning the play off final. |  |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 18:50 - Nov 29 with 2372 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 18:47 - Nov 29 by Pinewoodblue |
The original post is flawed. Those two extra wins would most probably be wins that would otherwise have been draws. We need to win an extra 3 games and even then no guarantee it would be enough.
There is also the little matter of then beating a team over two games and winning the play off final. |
not really, there are plenty of games with sliding doors moments which could've gone from a loss to a win. sunderland being the most recent example
*if* we make the playoffs, our form is going to be good going into it, we'd have a better chance than most | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 18:56 - Nov 29 with 2368 views | Ryorry |
| A positive twist on the stats on 18:47 - Nov 29 by Pinewoodblue |
The original post is flawed. Those two extra wins would most probably be wins that would otherwise have been draws. We need to win an extra 3 games and even then no guarantee it would be enough.
There is also the little matter of then beating a team over two games and winning the play off final. |
Re your 2nd para - well at least we have previous experience of doing just that! | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 18:57 - Nov 29 with 2364 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 17:56 - Nov 29 by The_Romford_Blue |
Unfortunately I don’t think this is the place for positivity right now. It’s the most negative I’ve ever seen the forum (or from a select few who post more than anyone else perhaps). I’m not entirely sure it’s just Ipswich though - it’s the same with the covid outlook on here pretty much all year. It’s the general outlook unfortunately |
It's really not. Rewind to January when it was looking like ME might yet again bottle sacking Lambert. It was WAY more negative back then. Not sure what Covid has to do with it, although it's not exactly a cheery subject. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 18:59 - Nov 29 with 2352 views | Pinewoodblue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 18:56 - Nov 29 by Ryorry |
Re your 2nd para - well at least we have previous experience of doing just that! |
We have more experience, as fans, of failing at the semi final stage. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 19:06 - Nov 29 with 2345 views | Skip_Intro |
| A positive twist on the stats on 18:56 - Nov 29 by Ryorry |
Re your 2nd para - well at least we have previous experience of doing just that! |
once out of how many attempts?  | | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 19:10 - Nov 29 with 2338 views | Ryorry |
| A positive twist on the stats on 19:06 - Nov 29 by Skip_Intro |
once out of how many attempts? |
What little rays of sunshine you & Pinewood aren't :(
I'm more of an optimist myself. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 19:11 - Nov 29 with 2336 views | waveneyblue |
| A positive twist on the stats on 14:41 - Nov 29 by Mullet |
It’s the thinnest of thin gruel though isn’t it? Possible but is it probable?
Thus far you’d suggest not given what we’ve seen from our rivals etc. Even if it does come to pass it’s the hollowest of victories given where we should be. |
Why "should" we be higher. ? I'm always curious at this |  | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 19:12 - Nov 29 with 2332 views | Skip_Intro |
| A positive twist on the stats on 19:10 - Nov 29 by Ryorry |
What little rays of sunshine you & Pinewood aren't :(
I'm more of an optimist myself. |
pragmatism vs optimism...the old classic...at the end of the day we all support the same team - we just have different expectations I guess... | | | |
| A positive twist on the stats on 19:14 - Nov 29 with 2328 views | Herbivore |
| A positive twist on the stats on 19:11 - Nov 29 by waveneyblue |
Why "should" we be higher. ? I'm always curious at this |
Because we've spent a fortune by League 1 standards and have one of the top 2 biggest budgets in the division. Generally spending power and league position tend to correlate to a large extent. That's why Chelsea and City are top 2 in the Prem and not Burnley and Norwich. | |
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| A positive twist on the stats on 19:20 - Nov 29 with 2315 views | positivity |
| A positive twist on the stats on 19:14 - Nov 29 by Herbivore |
Because we've spent a fortune by League 1 standards and have one of the top 2 biggest budgets in the division. Generally spending power and league position tend to correlate to a large extent. That's why Chelsea and City are top 2 in the Prem and not Burnley and Norwich. |
i think we should be higher, but not as high as you seem to think is our right.
just having a higher budget is not as important as having a successful settled squad and a manager who's been at the club a while.
our churn was so much higher than any other club at this level, it's bound to take some time to get us going.
if it was purely down to money, everton would be way above the likes of the hammers and derby would have been promoted half a dozen times! | |
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