| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" 09:56 - Dec 9 with 1351 views | giant_stow |
My man Ambrose is worried: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/12/09/wests-nightmare-war-three-fronts
For non subscribers / bod's who've used their free article, snippets include:
"While Britain’s political class is distracted by a Downing Street party, the world is at the most dangerous strategic juncture since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.
The West faces escalating threats of conflict on three fronts, each separate but linked by unknown levels of collusion: Russia’s mobilisation of a strike force on Ukraine’s border, China’s "dress rehearsal" for an attack on Taiwan, and Iran’s nuclear brinkmanship.
The least reported, but perhaps the most immediate, is the rapid nuclear escalation of Iran’s Islamist hardliner, Ebra Raisi. American and Israeli officials think the regime could be as little as two or three weeks away from the threshold required to assemble a nuclear weapon, at which point the Mid-East balance of power changes instantly.
Mossad chief David Barnea flew to Washington on Sunday night to test the waters for a pre-emptive strike.
While this bubbles, Russia and China are raising the ante in their parallel bids for imperial reconquest. Carl Bildt, the UN’s former Balkan envoy, warns that the two countries may launch attacks “simultaneously in a more or less coordinated fashion”, even if they are not formal military allies. This is the nightmare scenario.
Mr Putin may never have another chance like this to reestablish Greater Russia. All stars are aligned in his favour. Europe has disarmed. The green energy switch has not yet gone far enough to break dependency on Russia.
Xi Jinping is in less of a hurry than Mr Putin. The long-standing assumption is that China has time on its side over Taiwan, though less than before. America’s "Pacific pivot" is starting to take on real meaning and the Quad alliance with Japan, India, and Australia is hardening by the day. Xi might conclude that a parallel conflict in Ukraine along with a weak White House and a craven Europe offer an opportunity that may not recur."
Too many snippets to keep in line with copyright? [Post edited 9 Dec 2021 9:56]
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| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:03 - Dec 9 with 1281 views | StokieBlue |
I think that's a bit of an overeaction.
- Russia: Biden said yesterday that if he pushes into NATO countries that the US will get involved directly so Putin isn't going to do that. He's an egomaniac but he's not insane. Every chance he will push into the Ukraine though and then be hit with the worst sanctions ever from the West which will result in internal issues for him - it was pretty bad internally last time this happened and would be far worse this time.
- China: It's possible they could attack Taiwan and they would win but it would cost them quite a bit given the US air defences they purchased. The main reason this could happen is that Xi would be worried about internal issues an unrest at hard-line internal policies.
- Iran: Almost irrelevant to the "West" although certainly relevant to Israel. I'm not sure how it really changes things in the ME - Iran can still do nothing to Israel unless they themselves want to be a radioactive wasteland. If anything it produces more balance between the countries although the Ayatollahs are of course a random element.
Might be miles off on the above, guess we will see.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:09 - Dec 9 with 1255 views | giant_stow |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:03 - Dec 9 by StokieBlue |
I think that's a bit of an overeaction.
- Russia: Biden said yesterday that if he pushes into NATO countries that the US will get involved directly so Putin isn't going to do that. He's an egomaniac but he's not insane. Every chance he will push into the Ukraine though and then be hit with the worst sanctions ever from the West which will result in internal issues for him - it was pretty bad internally last time this happened and would be far worse this time.
- China: It's possible they could attack Taiwan and they would win but it would cost them quite a bit given the US air defences they purchased. The main reason this could happen is that Xi would be worried about internal issues an unrest at hard-line internal policies.
- Iran: Almost irrelevant to the "West" although certainly relevant to Israel. I'm not sure how it really changes things in the ME - Iran can still do nothing to Israel unless they themselves want to be a radioactive wasteland. If anything it produces more balance between the countries although the Ayatollahs are of course a random element.
Might be miles off on the above, guess we will see.
SB |
My man is prone to hype things up sometimes and he doesn't mind being wrong, or if he does, it doesn't stop him making the next dire prediction, but...
He kind of answers some of your points in the article (i wouldn't have a clue myself). To summarise, he worries that Russia has effectively been given the green light as there'll be no armed response and Russia may be able to survive the economic response, partly cos of Europe's dependence on Russian gas. He worries that the US doesn't have the will or means to fight China at Taiwan and that Israel will go it alone if the US doesn't help, as they can't tolerate any Iranian Nuclear capability. [Post edited 9 Dec 2021 10:09]
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| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:14 - Dec 9 with 1231 views | Mookamoo |
One of my clients works with the Ukrainian intelligence service. It's been very interesting over the last few years listening to what the Russians are up to. The main problem at the moment is rooting out all the agents that are rising up the ladders in positions of power. They're working to a point where the Russians will be invited back in and there will not be a lot the West can do about it. |  | | |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:19 - Dec 9 with 1205 views | giant_stow |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:14 - Dec 9 by Mookamoo |
One of my clients works with the Ukrainian intelligence service. It's been very interesting over the last few years listening to what the Russians are up to. The main problem at the moment is rooting out all the agents that are rising up the ladders in positions of power. They're working to a point where the Russians will be invited back in and there will not be a lot the West can do about it. |
Interesting stuff - don't suppose you can flesh it out a bit? No worries if that's impossible. | |
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| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:28 - Dec 9 with 1149 views | WeWereZombies |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:09 - Dec 9 by giant_stow |
My man is prone to hype things up sometimes and he doesn't mind being wrong, or if he does, it doesn't stop him making the next dire prediction, but...
He kind of answers some of your points in the article (i wouldn't have a clue myself). To summarise, he worries that Russia has effectively been given the green light as there'll be no armed response and Russia may be able to survive the economic response, partly cos of Europe's dependence on Russian gas. He worries that the US doesn't have the will or means to fight China at Taiwan and that Israel will go it alone if the US doesn't help, as they can't tolerate any Iranian Nuclear capability. [Post edited 9 Dec 2021 10:09]
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Anything in the article about Putin's worries about his grip on power? I think there could be a chance of a 'Falklands' moment when Putin needs a major distraction to double down on his rivals and critics. |  |
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| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:31 - Dec 9 with 1128 views | giant_stow |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:28 - Dec 9 by WeWereZombies |
Anything in the article about Putin's worries about his grip on power? I think there could be a chance of a 'Falklands' moment when Putin needs a major distraction to double down on his rivals and critics. |
No there isn't, but I reckon you make a very fair point - sure i've read the odd thing recently about him not getting everything his own way at home, despite appearances.. | |
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| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:34 - Dec 9 with 1125 views | Mookamoo |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:19 - Dec 9 by giant_stow |
Interesting stuff - don't suppose you can flesh it out a bit? No worries if that's impossible. |
He is an interesting guy - retired spook who runs a consultancy that trains teams in surveillance, counter surveillance and most importantly, detecting deceit. The Ukrainians were flooded with suspect people finding their way to the top they had to do massive training programme to stop the next lot getting through. It's all about nonverbal communication, using NLP etc.
He was one of the team that ran Oleg Gordievsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleg_Gordievsky and is quite open about it.
My job is just as important. I design his brochure covers and training manuals. | | | |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:37 - Dec 9 with 1098 views | giant_stow |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:34 - Dec 9 by Mookamoo |
He is an interesting guy - retired spook who runs a consultancy that trains teams in surveillance, counter surveillance and most importantly, detecting deceit. The Ukrainians were flooded with suspect people finding their way to the top they had to do massive training programme to stop the next lot getting through. It's all about nonverbal communication, using NLP etc.
He was one of the team that ran Oleg Gordievsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleg_Gordievsky and is quite open about it.
My job is just as important. I design his brochure covers and training manuals. |
Cheers - fascinating. | |
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| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:56 - Dec 9 with 1064 views | StokieBlue |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:09 - Dec 9 by giant_stow |
My man is prone to hype things up sometimes and he doesn't mind being wrong, or if he does, it doesn't stop him making the next dire prediction, but...
He kind of answers some of your points in the article (i wouldn't have a clue myself). To summarise, he worries that Russia has effectively been given the green light as there'll be no armed response and Russia may be able to survive the economic response, partly cos of Europe's dependence on Russian gas. He worries that the US doesn't have the will or means to fight China at Taiwan and that Israel will go it alone if the US doesn't help, as they can't tolerate any Iranian Nuclear capability. [Post edited 9 Dec 2021 10:09]
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"To summarise, he worries that Russia has effectively been given the green light as there'll be no armed response and Russia may be able to survive the economic response, partly cos of Europe's dependence on Russian gas."
There is no chance Russia can survive the economic response. Last time their currency totally crashed and people couldn't afford food. Russia is not a big economy - it's smaller than the UK's for instance, I think people tend to forget this. It has a strong military and that's about it.
"He worries that the US doesn't have the will or means to fight China at Taiwan"
The US clearly has the means if they so desired but I agree they probably don't have the will. In the end if Taiwan is invaded it would make little difference to the West - it's the continuation of the China civil war. Would obviously be awful for the Taiwanese.
" Israel will go it alone if the US doesn't help, as they can't tolerate any Iranian Nuclear capability."
They go it alone anyway, it was only a couple of years ago they launched raids on various nuclear facilities in the region. They are pretty much two fundamentalist countries.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 11:35 - Dec 9 with 1016 views | RegencyBlue |
If I had to guess I would say any invasion will take place over Christmas when the Western political establishment will be on their holidays and by the time they get their act together it will all be over! |  | | |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 12:32 - Dec 9 with 949 views | Guthrum |
Ambrose does tend to be somewhat alarmist.
My instinct is that neither Putin nor Xi wants to make Hitler's error of overreach leading to disaster.
In all three cases they are more interested in domestic distraction than actual expansion. Wars are messy, expensive, cost lives and the outcomes are far from certain. Especially against NATO, which is still by far the most powerful military force on the planet. |  |
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| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 12:41 - Dec 9 with 926 views | giant_stow |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 10:56 - Dec 9 by StokieBlue |
"To summarise, he worries that Russia has effectively been given the green light as there'll be no armed response and Russia may be able to survive the economic response, partly cos of Europe's dependence on Russian gas."
There is no chance Russia can survive the economic response. Last time their currency totally crashed and people couldn't afford food. Russia is not a big economy - it's smaller than the UK's for instance, I think people tend to forget this. It has a strong military and that's about it.
"He worries that the US doesn't have the will or means to fight China at Taiwan"
The US clearly has the means if they so desired but I agree they probably don't have the will. In the end if Taiwan is invaded it would make little difference to the West - it's the continuation of the China civil war. Would obviously be awful for the Taiwanese.
" Israel will go it alone if the US doesn't help, as they can't tolerate any Iranian Nuclear capability."
They go it alone anyway, it was only a couple of years ago they launched raids on various nuclear facilities in the region. They are pretty much two fundamentalist countries.
SB |
I guess the question on Putin is whether he's more bothered about his people starving or rebuilding the old soviet borders. Who knows?
Re Taiwan, isn't there quite a lot of doubt over the security of American aircraft carriers in any war with China or Russia? Some consider them to be sitting ducks, rightly or wrongly, what with these new missiles. I guess the US always has Japan to use, but then we're getting into a full blow regional war and how much will to fight they have.
I think there's alot of doubt over whether the US could win a war over Taiwan in terms of supply lines too isn't there, what with it being so much easier for the Chinese on that front? Afterall the US couldn't win in Afghanistan, so how could they defeat a much more powerful opponent with just as much desire to win as the Taliban?
Re Israel, putting value judgements aside for a moment, Iran has made very severe threats over the years - at least it Iran knows Israel has a history of having nukes, but not using them - Israel can't know the same. [Post edited 9 Dec 2021 12:44]
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| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 12:44 - Dec 9 with 906 views | giant_stow |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 12:32 - Dec 9 by Guthrum |
Ambrose does tend to be somewhat alarmist.
My instinct is that neither Putin nor Xi wants to make Hitler's error of overreach leading to disaster.
In all three cases they are more interested in domestic distraction than actual expansion. Wars are messy, expensive, cost lives and the outcomes are far from certain. Especially against NATO, which is still by far the most powerful military force on the planet. |
I think there is a sense with him that he likes to get his predictions in first, in case they come true - yes. He's not all doom and gloom though - he's extremely positive on the prospects for green energy for instance.
Anyway, I hope you're right obviously, but these things aren't; necessarily rationally driven | |
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| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 12:49 - Dec 9 with 874 views | StokieBlue |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 12:41 - Dec 9 by giant_stow |
I guess the question on Putin is whether he's more bothered about his people starving or rebuilding the old soviet borders. Who knows?
Re Taiwan, isn't there quite a lot of doubt over the security of American aircraft carriers in any war with China or Russia? Some consider them to be sitting ducks, rightly or wrongly, what with these new missiles. I guess the US always has Japan to use, but then we're getting into a full blow regional war and how much will to fight they have.
I think there's alot of doubt over whether the US could win a war over Taiwan in terms of supply lines too isn't there, what with it being so much easier for the Chinese on that front? Afterall the US couldn't win in Afghanistan, so how could they defeat a much more powerful opponent with just as much desire to win as the Taliban?
Re Israel, putting value judgements aside for a moment, Iran has made very severe threats over the years - at least it Iran knows Israel has a history of having nukes, but not using them - Israel can't know the same. [Post edited 9 Dec 2021 12:44]
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That's not really the question. If his people are starving he probably won't last that long unless he's willing to go for a full-blown civil war. People in the military aren't usually too pleased if their families have no food.
When it comes to the US, I think we barely have a clue what they really have at their disposal. You don't spend 50bn a year for 40 years on black projects without having loads of stuff you don't show people. The last thing they really unveiled was the stealths and that was over 30 years ago.
That's a bit irrelevant though - in the end it's not in China's best interest to get into a shooting war with the US given they are also their main trading partner. Not sure why you think there would be a war - the US isn't going to defend Taiwan, they don't even recognise it as an official country.
With Israel and Iran if one side launches then the other side will - history is irrelevant.
It's unlikely any of these scenarios are going to happen, at least not soon, it's alarmist stuff.
SB [Post edited 9 Dec 2021 12:49]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 13:00 - Dec 9 with 842 views | giant_stow |
| "The West’s nightmare: a war on three fronts" on 12:49 - Dec 9 by StokieBlue |
That's not really the question. If his people are starving he probably won't last that long unless he's willing to go for a full-blown civil war. People in the military aren't usually too pleased if their families have no food.
When it comes to the US, I think we barely have a clue what they really have at their disposal. You don't spend 50bn a year for 40 years on black projects without having loads of stuff you don't show people. The last thing they really unveiled was the stealths and that was over 30 years ago.
That's a bit irrelevant though - in the end it's not in China's best interest to get into a shooting war with the US given they are also their main trading partner. Not sure why you think there would be a war - the US isn't going to defend Taiwan, they don't even recognise it as an official country.
With Israel and Iran if one side launches then the other side will - history is irrelevant.
It's unlikely any of these scenarios are going to happen, at least not soon, it's alarmist stuff.
SB [Post edited 9 Dec 2021 12:49]
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First para - you could well be right, although the troop movements do seem to be alarming more poeple than just Ambrose.
Re your second para, that is indeed a very interesting question. Are they keeping their powder dry while the Chinese and Russians show off, or are they the classic bloated empire losing it's edge through complacency and hubris?
Third: you're right I spose - its probably too daunting for the US to contemplate - interesting to speculate on though!
fourth: This would surely be an argument for the Israeli hawks to move now before the Iranians get their nukes.
5th: definitely unlikely, but not impossible - I mean his theory of loosely coordinated chaos does hang together. [Post edited 9 Dec 2021 13:01]
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