Forum | re discussions about Omicron severity by gordon

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re discussions about Omicron severity 07:38 - Dec 19 with 401 views

This is a really good explanation of how Omicron could appear to be a more mild variant because of it's capacity for immune escape, without there actually being any change in it's underlying virulence or the immunity level in the population. Just a nice theoretical model, not a comment on actual severity / otherwise of Omicron.

A sketch to explain how a new variant may appear milder even with no change in underlying virulence. This can occur because, when calculating the fraction of cases that are severe, the denominator now includes many re-infections that had previously been averted. A thread. 1/8 pic.twitter.com/XxrYHnb6XY
— Natalie E. Dean, PhD (@nataliexdean) December 9, 2021

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