| Omicron numbers - I don't get it 19:12 - Dec 20 with 7490 views | Wicksy |
Case numbers are supposedly doubling ever 2 to 3 days.
I'm pretty certain the case numbers were c 50k a day well over a week ago but are still 'only' c 90k when they should be c 300k- 400k
What am I missing? |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:37 - Dec 20 with 2449 views | Trequartista |
Yes, and it will inevitably rise again tomorrow as tomorrow's cases replace the 59,610 from 14/12/2021 in the weekly data. |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:58 - Dec 20 with 2425 views | Trequartista |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:34 - Dec 20 by Cotty |
Every methodology is flawed. But if it’s consistent, does it really matter? This is the same method they were using when there were a handful of cases each day. Where were your complaints about methodology then? This is straw clutching of the highest order… |
Well firstly i only read it 2 days ago so i was unaware we counted them like this when there were a handful of cases a day. (Do you get much more incidental covid when there are a huge amount of cases, by percentage? I defer that to you as i believe you are a mathematician)
Surely the point of the exercise is to ascertain whether our hospitals are going to overflow. If you are counting people who would be there anyway in your estimates and the difference is nearly 200% I hardly think this is straw clutching. It's not just a few cases here and there is it?
As the graph in the article shows, it means we are roughly following the Delta curve rather than the Alpha one, which is a again a big difference. Not withstanding the fact you spend far less time in hospital on average with Omicron than Delta.
I read a thread from Dr Raghib Ali today that incorporates this, very scientific and detailed
[Post edited 20 Dec 2021 23:59]
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 10:57 - Dec 22 with 2224 views | Trequartista |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:49 - Dec 20 by Trequartista |
Could be weekend lag, or could be delta cases simultaneously reducing, or could be the doubling rate has slowed. Usually best to wait for a week's data to iron out the daily bumps, but last 4 days look promising. |
Tweeted by Professor Hunter from UEA one day after my post. We could, of course, both be wrong, but reassuring for me to never worry about down arrows.
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 11:10 - Dec 22 with 2178 views | StokieBlue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 10:57 - Dec 22 by Trequartista |
Tweeted by Professor Hunter from UEA one day after my post. We could, of course, both be wrong, but reassuring for me to never worry about down arrows.
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Quite a few scientists saying that we are getting near the limits of our testing and that derived methods such as Zoe are still showing significant increases in infection.
I do think that a lot of people have changed their behaviour over the last week though in an effort to ensure negative tests before Christmas which would impact the number of cases.
It's almost self-imposed restrictions for many at the moment.
SB |  | | |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 11:47 - Dec 22 with 2140 views | Trequartista |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 11:10 - Dec 22 by StokieBlue |
Quite a few scientists saying that we are getting near the limits of our testing and that derived methods such as Zoe are still showing significant increases in infection.
I do think that a lot of people have changed their behaviour over the last week though in an effort to ensure negative tests before Christmas which would impact the number of cases.
It's almost self-imposed restrictions for many at the moment.
SB |
Reasonable points, noted. | |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 12:34 - Dec 22 with 2097 views | JakeITFC |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 11:10 - Dec 22 by StokieBlue |
Quite a few scientists saying that we are getting near the limits of our testing and that derived methods such as Zoe are still showing significant increases in infection.
I do think that a lot of people have changed their behaviour over the last week though in an effort to ensure negative tests before Christmas which would impact the number of cases.
It's almost self-imposed restrictions for many at the moment.
SB |
And possibly people avoiding tests. |  | | |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 12:36 - Dec 22 with 2086 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 11:10 - Dec 22 by StokieBlue |
Quite a few scientists saying that we are getting near the limits of our testing and that derived methods such as Zoe are still showing significant increases in infection.
I do think that a lot of people have changed their behaviour over the last week though in an effort to ensure negative tests before Christmas which would impact the number of cases.
It's almost self-imposed restrictions for many at the moment.
SB |
What's your view on this Stokie? That containment is the best we can ever hope for and eradication is no impossible.
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 13:21 - Dec 22 with 2031 views | J2BLUE |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 12:36 - Dec 22 by GlasgowBlue |
What's your view on this Stokie? That containment is the best we can ever hope for and eradication is no impossible.
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Not sure there is anything new there to be honest. It was always stated that it was likely to become like the flu or common cold etc. Once it gets down to acceptable level then the case for restrictions will be non existent. [Post edited 22 Dec 2021 13:25]
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 16:41 - Dec 22 with 1956 views | StokieBlue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 12:36 - Dec 22 by GlasgowBlue |
What's your view on this Stokie? That containment is the best we can ever hope for and eradication is no impossible.
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It's endemic now, we won't ever get rid of it but it could mutate to weaken (or strengthen of course but more unusual) and it should become more manageable over time.
Second generation vaccines will be better and hopefully after than we can have more generic covid vaccines which try and deal with variants regardless of type (that is obviously difficult). The real gamechanger would be a vaccine which stops transmission and then herd immunity is possible but there isn't really sign of that at the moment. That is what really drives things at the moment - the inability to prevent transmission without restrictions or lockdowns and thus the inability to protect the NHS. If it's ever possible to medically restrict transmission then that would be a massive step forward. That will also rely on many who don't want the vaccine being persuaded or forced to have it.
There is research into getting the vaccine into pill form which would obviously make things hugely easier but I am not sure where they are with that at the moment. Either way I expect we will be getting a covid vaccine along with flu for a while.
The good news is that treatment is getting better both in hospital and with antivirals which seem to work pretty well as they disrupt the ability of the virus to replicate. There are certainly signs for optimism going forward in 2022, I know many want it now but we might need more batches of restrictions in the shorter term until things get better.
There were 106000 cases today, it's conceivably a milder variant but that's a lot of cases where the virus can root out weaknesses in the populace.
SB | | | |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 18:54 - Dec 22 with 1883 views | TractorWood |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 16:41 - Dec 22 by StokieBlue |
It's endemic now, we won't ever get rid of it but it could mutate to weaken (or strengthen of course but more unusual) and it should become more manageable over time.
Second generation vaccines will be better and hopefully after than we can have more generic covid vaccines which try and deal with variants regardless of type (that is obviously difficult). The real gamechanger would be a vaccine which stops transmission and then herd immunity is possible but there isn't really sign of that at the moment. That is what really drives things at the moment - the inability to prevent transmission without restrictions or lockdowns and thus the inability to protect the NHS. If it's ever possible to medically restrict transmission then that would be a massive step forward. That will also rely on many who don't want the vaccine being persuaded or forced to have it.
There is research into getting the vaccine into pill form which would obviously make things hugely easier but I am not sure where they are with that at the moment. Either way I expect we will be getting a covid vaccine along with flu for a while.
The good news is that treatment is getting better both in hospital and with antivirals which seem to work pretty well as they disrupt the ability of the virus to replicate. There are certainly signs for optimism going forward in 2022, I know many want it now but we might need more batches of restrictions in the shorter term until things get better.
There were 106000 cases today, it's conceivably a milder variant but that's a lot of cases where the virus can root out weaknesses in the populace.
SB |
The markets certainly have liked the last 48 hours of developments. Looking milder with a heavily vaccinated and morally responsible population (mostly). |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 18:55 - Dec 22 with 1883 views | Ely_Blue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 16:41 - Dec 22 by StokieBlue |
It's endemic now, we won't ever get rid of it but it could mutate to weaken (or strengthen of course but more unusual) and it should become more manageable over time.
Second generation vaccines will be better and hopefully after than we can have more generic covid vaccines which try and deal with variants regardless of type (that is obviously difficult). The real gamechanger would be a vaccine which stops transmission and then herd immunity is possible but there isn't really sign of that at the moment. That is what really drives things at the moment - the inability to prevent transmission without restrictions or lockdowns and thus the inability to protect the NHS. If it's ever possible to medically restrict transmission then that would be a massive step forward. That will also rely on many who don't want the vaccine being persuaded or forced to have it.
There is research into getting the vaccine into pill form which would obviously make things hugely easier but I am not sure where they are with that at the moment. Either way I expect we will be getting a covid vaccine along with flu for a while.
The good news is that treatment is getting better both in hospital and with antivirals which seem to work pretty well as they disrupt the ability of the virus to replicate. There are certainly signs for optimism going forward in 2022, I know many want it now but we might need more batches of restrictions in the shorter term until things get better.
There were 106000 cases today, it's conceivably a milder variant but that's a lot of cases where the virus can root out weaknesses in the populace.
SB |
“We won’t ever get rid of it”
Ever the optimist, I’m glad you weren’t around when Spanish flu and smallpox were killing people off! |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 18:58 - Dec 22 with 1876 views | jeera |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 18:55 - Dec 22 by Ely_Blue |
“We won’t ever get rid of it”
Ever the optimist, I’m glad you weren’t around when Spanish flu and smallpox were killing people off! |
A successful vaccine was found for smallpox so I guess it didn't have the capabilities to reinvent itself every five minutes. |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:03 - Dec 22 with 1865 views | StokieBlue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 18:55 - Dec 22 by Ely_Blue |
“We won’t ever get rid of it”
Ever the optimist, I’m glad you weren’t around when Spanish flu and smallpox were killing people off! |
Not surprisingly you've shown a total misunderstanding of the science but you carry on.
SB | | | |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:05 - Dec 22 with 1861 views | ElderGrizzly |
It only referred to Omicron cases. You’ve still got a large number of Delta |  | | |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:05 - Dec 22 with 1858 views | StokieBlue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 18:58 - Dec 22 by jeera |
A successful vaccine was found for smallpox so I guess it didn't have the capabilities to reinvent itself every five minutes. |
It was also a different scenario. Smallpox only had humans as a reservoir in which to exist. Covid can live in many other mammals and thus even if it's eradicated in humans entirely there is still the possibility of it coming back from your cat.
"Variola virus is the etiological agent of smallpox. During the smallpox era, the only known reservoir for the virus was humans; no known animal or insect reservoirs or vectors existed"
https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/smallpox#:~:text=Variola%2
Also worth noting that descendants of the Spanish flu still exist today.
SB [Post edited 22 Dec 2021 19:07]
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:06 - Dec 22 with 1855 views | NthQldITFC |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 18:55 - Dec 22 by Ely_Blue |
“We won’t ever get rid of it”
Ever the optimist, I’m glad you weren’t around when Spanish flu and smallpox were killing people off! |
Did you mean realist or pragmatist? I suppose we could eradicate 'it' and all of the descendants of all of the current variants sometime in the future, but like the common cold, influenza etc., as far as I'm aware we don't nearly have the capability to do that. |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:13 - Dec 22 with 1833 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 16:41 - Dec 22 by StokieBlue |
It's endemic now, we won't ever get rid of it but it could mutate to weaken (or strengthen of course but more unusual) and it should become more manageable over time.
Second generation vaccines will be better and hopefully after than we can have more generic covid vaccines which try and deal with variants regardless of type (that is obviously difficult). The real gamechanger would be a vaccine which stops transmission and then herd immunity is possible but there isn't really sign of that at the moment. That is what really drives things at the moment - the inability to prevent transmission without restrictions or lockdowns and thus the inability to protect the NHS. If it's ever possible to medically restrict transmission then that would be a massive step forward. That will also rely on many who don't want the vaccine being persuaded or forced to have it.
There is research into getting the vaccine into pill form which would obviously make things hugely easier but I am not sure where they are with that at the moment. Either way I expect we will be getting a covid vaccine along with flu for a while.
The good news is that treatment is getting better both in hospital and with antivirals which seem to work pretty well as they disrupt the ability of the virus to replicate. There are certainly signs for optimism going forward in 2022, I know many want it now but we might need more batches of restrictions in the shorter term until things get better.
There were 106000 cases today, it's conceivably a milder variant but that's a lot of cases where the virus can root out weaknesses in the populace.
SB |
Looks like Delta is the still the dominant variant in the UK.
Today's full UKHSA Omicron data. New cases 13,581, compared to 15,363 yesterday. | |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:17 - Dec 22 with 1833 views | jeera |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 19:05 - Dec 22 by StokieBlue |
It was also a different scenario. Smallpox only had humans as a reservoir in which to exist. Covid can live in many other mammals and thus even if it's eradicated in humans entirely there is still the possibility of it coming back from your cat.
"Variola virus is the etiological agent of smallpox. During the smallpox era, the only known reservoir for the virus was humans; no known animal or insect reservoirs or vectors existed"
https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/smallpox#:~:text=Variola%2
Also worth noting that descendants of the Spanish flu still exist today.
SB [Post edited 22 Dec 2021 19:07]
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Not for me. I do not like cats.
Dub has a cat and so does Factors.
If this happens again in 20 years time you speak to them and leave me well out of it. | |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 15:24 - Dec 27 with 1687 views | Trequartista |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:34 - Dec 20 by Cotty |
Every methodology is flawed. But if it’s consistent, does it really matter? This is the same method they were using when there were a handful of cases each day. Where were your complaints about methodology then? This is straw clutching of the highest order… |
Oh.
You'd better let NHS Chief Executives know that they are straw-clutching. | |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 20:11 - Dec 27 with 1524 views | LeoMuff |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 15:24 - Dec 27 by Trequartista |
Oh.
You'd better let NHS Chief Executives know that they are straw-clutching. |
Not sure that’s what’s being said here ? Surely it doesn’t matter if the numbers are counted as admitted with covid or because of covid |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 20:18 - Dec 27 with 1503 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 20:11 - Dec 27 by LeoMuff |
Not sure that’s what’s being said here ? Surely it doesn’t matter if the numbers are counted as admitted with covid or because of covid |
I get the feeling it isn't saying what Treq thinks it is!
It is clear case rates of Omicron are rising rapidly. |  |
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 23:37 - Dec 27 with 1383 views | Freddies_Ears |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 20:18 - Dec 27 by Nthsuffolkblue |
I get the feeling it isn't saying what Treq thinks it is!
It is clear case rates of Omicron are rising rapidly. |
Possibly didn't faster than official stats will show, given that demand for PCR tests has exceeded supply today. |  | | |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 09:40 - Dec 28 with 1282 views | Trequartista |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 20:18 - Dec 27 by Nthsuffolkblue |
I get the feeling it isn't saying what Treq thinks it is!
It is clear case rates of Omicron are rising rapidly. |
It is indeed clear rates of Omicron are rising. I've not disputed that at all at any point.
I merely made an observation over a week ago, that there is an important factor behind the raw data known as 'incidental covid', which was dismissed as straw-clutching with the usual down and up arrows posted against my opinion because it doesn't fit the narrative.
Therefore, a week later, I thought it reasonable to point out that 'incidental covid' is something seriously taken into consideration by healthcare professionals, rather than something i've just come up with to 'downplay' the pandemic. [Post edited 28 Dec 2021 9:40]
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| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 09:45 - Dec 28 with 1265 views | Trequartista |
| Omicron numbers - I don't get it on 20:11 - Dec 27 by LeoMuff |
Not sure that’s what’s being said here ? Surely it doesn’t matter if the numbers are counted as admitted with covid or because of covid |
I would suggest someone going into hospital with a broken arm who tests positive in hospital with asymptomatic covid is something very different to someone who is admitted with covid and is in icu having developed pneumonia. The former would be in hospital anyway, for a starter.
I am not one-sided with the truth though so i will also point out i have since discovered the former would still have to go to a covid ward, so this still puts pressure on covid bed numbers, but not overall bed numbers. | |
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