| NTT20 podcast 23:26 - Jan 11 with 1919 views | Menton |
Just listening to their second half of the season predictions. One of the guys on there reckons even if we get 2 points per game, 77 points probably won’t be enough for the play offs this year. I’ve not studied previous totals but that seems like a lot of points to miss out. 2ppg would be a hell of an average over 21 games, anyway. |  |
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| NTT20 podcast on 00:00 - Jan 12 with 1852 views | PrrrromotionGiven |
As Mac10's excellent blog ( https://www.twtd.co.uk/blogs/21887/can-ipswich-town-still-make-the-play-offs) points out, 77 points was enough in every season from 2010 to the present day.
Projections that argue 77 points aren't enough must invariably assume that the teams above us will maintain or better the PPG they have achieved so far. If they all did so we would indeed be in trouble with 6th place having about 79 points. But this is not likely (in fact it is all but impossible). We can pretty reliably assume that some teams have overperformed in the first half of the season, and others will overperform in the second half. Try to find a non-1st tier season where the top 6 at the end is identical to the top 6 at New Year. Also, we don't need all 9 teams above us to screw it up - it would suit us fine if, for example, Plymouth and Oxford maintained mid-table form while Portsmouth and Wednesday were good but not exceptional (i.e. exactly what they have been so far). The likes of Sunderland, Wycombe, Wigan etc. could be as good as they wanted and it wouldn't matter (well, except for when they might play us in playoff games). That would leave the door open for us to make the playoffs with 75-odd points.
It also helps to think about it on a monthly basis, I think. The season ends in May and we aren't even halfway through January. A meagre two points of progress per month would see us safely into the playoffs. The teams from 5th-7th (the real ones we need to catch) have one game in hand between them against us so that is no longer a significant factor. We will have chances to directly deny points to those rivals by beating them - difficult games, no doubt, but I'd rather have the chance than not in our weak position.
Overall I think pessimism in this regard is built upon overestimation of how other teams will go on picking up points. The simple fact is that teams high up the table are likely to have got a few lucky wins along the way since the sample size of twenty-something games is small. Some will be the real deal of course but we would be very unlucky if there were six such teams above us. If you look at a season 10 games in, there will often be several teams with >2PPG, but by the end, only the champions have kept that figure up. That's an extreme version of the same phenomenon I am talking about, I guarantee that at least one of the teams above us won't even finish in the top half.
If things start well over the next month or so, what we really need to hope for is that nobody else (Accrington, Burton, Wednesday etc.) has the bright idea of a late playoff charge, or else instead of about eight teams competing for six spots it will quickly become as congested as it is now.
My guess is that 75 is the golden number. If we got to 70 I'd be proud of the team's progress, that would mean matching our points so far in 4 fewer matches. |  | | |
| NTT20 podcast on 00:08 - Jan 12 with 1838 views | LankHenners |
It would be an anomaly over the past 10 seasons but on some high point scoring occasions it's only just been enough to sneak into 6th. It will probably be quite a high scoring play off picture this season as it's quite congested with quite a few teams chugging along picking up points at a decent rate.
As you say we'll do really well to recover our position to get up to that sort of total and if we did it and missed out on the POs it'll be gutting because of that but also because it'll be a huge 'what could have been' had we not ballsed up the first part of the season so badly.
The next couple of months give us some reasonably kind fixtures to rack some points up before playing some of the teams we need to make ground on so hit the final stretch with some momentum and you never know but it'll be tough as we'll have to keep firing as we are right now and not stop. |  |
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| NTT20 podcast on 00:19 - Jan 12 with 1799 views | PrrrromotionGiven |
| NTT20 podcast on 00:00 - Jan 12 by PrrrromotionGiven |
As Mac10's excellent blog ( https://www.twtd.co.uk/blogs/21887/can-ipswich-town-still-make-the-play-offs) points out, 77 points was enough in every season from 2010 to the present day.
Projections that argue 77 points aren't enough must invariably assume that the teams above us will maintain or better the PPG they have achieved so far. If they all did so we would indeed be in trouble with 6th place having about 79 points. But this is not likely (in fact it is all but impossible). We can pretty reliably assume that some teams have overperformed in the first half of the season, and others will overperform in the second half. Try to find a non-1st tier season where the top 6 at the end is identical to the top 6 at New Year. Also, we don't need all 9 teams above us to screw it up - it would suit us fine if, for example, Plymouth and Oxford maintained mid-table form while Portsmouth and Wednesday were good but not exceptional (i.e. exactly what they have been so far). The likes of Sunderland, Wycombe, Wigan etc. could be as good as they wanted and it wouldn't matter (well, except for when they might play us in playoff games). That would leave the door open for us to make the playoffs with 75-odd points.
It also helps to think about it on a monthly basis, I think. The season ends in May and we aren't even halfway through January. A meagre two points of progress per month would see us safely into the playoffs. The teams from 5th-7th (the real ones we need to catch) have one game in hand between them against us so that is no longer a significant factor. We will have chances to directly deny points to those rivals by beating them - difficult games, no doubt, but I'd rather have the chance than not in our weak position.
Overall I think pessimism in this regard is built upon overestimation of how other teams will go on picking up points. The simple fact is that teams high up the table are likely to have got a few lucky wins along the way since the sample size of twenty-something games is small. Some will be the real deal of course but we would be very unlucky if there were six such teams above us. If you look at a season 10 games in, there will often be several teams with >2PPG, but by the end, only the champions have kept that figure up. That's an extreme version of the same phenomenon I am talking about, I guarantee that at least one of the teams above us won't even finish in the top half.
If things start well over the next month or so, what we really need to hope for is that nobody else (Accrington, Burton, Wednesday etc.) has the bright idea of a late playoff charge, or else instead of about eight teams competing for six spots it will quickly become as congested as it is now.
My guess is that 75 is the golden number. If we got to 70 I'd be proud of the team's progress, that would mean matching our points so far in 4 fewer matches. |
To add some cold hard stats to back this up a bit using this handy tool https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/league-one/spieltag/wettbewerb/GB3/plus/?saison_
After 5 games in this very season, you needed 2 ppg to be in the playoffs (and even that wasn't enough for poor Burton).
After 10 games, you needed 1.7 ppg.
After 15 games, you needed 1.667 ppg.
After 20 games, you needed 1.8 ppg after a strong few games for the top sides.
But now it has dipped again to 1.72.
The trend is downwards. By 46 games, how many ppg will be needed? Even if it only dips as far as that matchday 15 figure, 77 is enough. A ppg of 1.6 would mean a measly 74 would do (precisely what happened last season). | | | |
| NTT20 podcast on 09:50 - Jan 12 with 1445 views | tractorboy1978 |
Just got to concentrate on ourselves and hitting that 2 points per game - it may be enough, it may not. 42 points from 21 games looks something like 12 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats - not unrealistic with the strength of squad we have.
7 of our 10 home games against teams below us - can't afford slip ups there. We've already played Sunderland and Wycombe twice too. | | | |
| NTT20 podcast on 10:01 - Jan 12 with 1420 views | itfcjoe |
Chris Rand, who has used the old SportsClubStats website sees it as this probablility wise which looks about right:
73pts (W11 D5 L5): 10% chance of playoffs
76pts (W12 D5 L4): 50% chance of playoffs
80pts (W14 D3 L4): 90% chance of playoffs
87pts (W16 D4 L1): 99%+ chance of at least playoffs (inc. 40% chance of top 2) |  |
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| NTT20 podcast on 10:02 - Jan 12 with 1408 views | Parsley |
I like to check the FiveThirtyEight predictions now and then https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/
At the moment they have MK Dons to finish 6th with 76 points so that 77 point target might not be too far off. Ipswich currently predicted to finish 10th on 71 points with a 23% chance of making the playoffs, which is probably fair at the moment. Could change quickly with a decent run of form. |  | | |
| NTT20 podcast on 10:18 - Jan 12 with 1375 views | jayessess |
| NTT20 podcast on 10:01 - Jan 12 by itfcjoe |
Chris Rand, who has used the old SportsClubStats website sees it as this probablility wise which looks about right:
73pts (W11 D5 L5): 10% chance of playoffs
76pts (W12 D5 L4): 50% chance of playoffs
80pts (W14 D3 L4): 90% chance of playoffs
87pts (W16 D4 L1): 99%+ chance of at least playoffs (inc. 40% chance of top 2) |
The teams above us have already banked their first half of the season points, so you'd expect the play-off line to be slightly higher than usual.
I reckon if you add the current total for 6th to normal play-off form for the rest of the season (1.6 ppg) then you have a good estimate for a play-off line. For Oxford and MK Dons that's 43 + 33.6 or 76/77 points. |  |
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| NTT20 podcast on 10:35 - Jan 12 with 1314 views | bluefunk |
| NTT20 podcast on 10:01 - Jan 12 by itfcjoe |
Chris Rand, who has used the old SportsClubStats website sees it as this probablility wise which looks about right:
73pts (W11 D5 L5): 10% chance of playoffs
76pts (W12 D5 L4): 50% chance of playoffs
80pts (W14 D3 L4): 90% chance of playoffs
87pts (W16 D4 L1): 99%+ chance of at least playoffs (inc. 40% chance of top 2) |
That doesn’t really make sense when over the last 9 completed seasons, since 2011/12, 74 points has made the playoffs every season, 73 points has made it 5 times and 2 outliers of 71 and 69 points have also made it. |  | | |
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| NTT20 podcast on 11:02 - Jan 12 with 1253 views | Guthrum |
| NTT20 podcast on 10:18 - Jan 12 by jayessess |
The teams above us have already banked their first half of the season points, so you'd expect the play-off line to be slightly higher than usual.
I reckon if you add the current total for 6th to normal play-off form for the rest of the season (1.6 ppg) then you have a good estimate for a play-off line. For Oxford and MK Dons that's 43 + 33.6 or 76/77 points. |
Except the points total for 6th place is not a line rising smoothly throughout the season. There will be fair degree of "wobble" as form fluctuates and teams rise or fall. Being a few points up at the half-way stage by no means guarantees that boost will remain over the rest of the season.
So many factors are at play. Will Gillingham's terrible form persist now Evans has been sacked? Will Plymouth continue to slide from what looked a few weeks ago to be an unassailable position? Will Wigan win enough of their games in hand to maintain position? |  |
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| NTT20 podcast on 11:03 - Jan 12 with 1251 views | itfcjoe |
| NTT20 podcast on 10:35 - Jan 12 by bluefunk |
That doesn’t really make sense when over the last 9 completed seasons, since 2011/12, 74 points has made the playoffs every season, 73 points has made it 5 times and 2 outliers of 71 and 69 points have also made it. |
Recent history doesn't really make much difference as a lot of factors can change that - weaker teams in league, bigger gaps between bottom and middle, etc etc
There is a decent sized gap between the top4-5 teams in this league and the rest and it seems unlikely that a normal amount of points will be enough this year - but it is only showing it as a 50:50 chance | |
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| NTT20 podcast on 11:16 - Jan 12 with 1211 views | HighgateBlue |
| NTT20 podcast on 00:19 - Jan 12 by PrrrromotionGiven |
To add some cold hard stats to back this up a bit using this handy tool https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/league-one/spieltag/wettbewerb/GB3/plus/?saison_
After 5 games in this very season, you needed 2 ppg to be in the playoffs (and even that wasn't enough for poor Burton).
After 10 games, you needed 1.7 ppg.
After 15 games, you needed 1.667 ppg.
After 20 games, you needed 1.8 ppg after a strong few games for the top sides.
But now it has dipped again to 1.72.
The trend is downwards. By 46 games, how many ppg will be needed? Even if it only dips as far as that matchday 15 figure, 77 is enough. A ppg of 1.6 would mean a measly 74 would do (precisely what happened last season). |
An added element of complexity is added by the diversity of numbers of games played by each team. It is hard to ascertain how many PPG you need to be in the top six at any one time unless you are talking about being in the top six on the PPG measure, rather than just the way that the league table is conventionally published.
At present, the sixth placed team has 1.72 PPG, and yet Plymouth have a figure of 1.79 and are not currently in the playoff places, for example.
On a broader point, I think the first 5 games are pretty statistically insignificant. Since game 10 I don't really see a downward trend. But your main point is of course a good one. There were a fair few teams with more than 1.6 PPG at this stage of last season, us included, who were outside of the top six at that stage, and in general the PPG of the teams just in and around the playoff places did decline a little as the season goes on.
It seems that we'll need to do as well as Sunderland and Wycombe have been doing thus far, in order to sneak into the playoffs. A tough ask, but really not impossible. We have a run of games which are winnable on paper, and if we can string a few wins together, suddenly it looks really achievable. A crucial next half dozen games, but aren't they all?!
COYB |  | | |
| NTT20 podcast on 11:18 - Jan 12 with 1208 views | PhilTWTD |
| NTT20 podcast on 11:03 - Jan 12 by itfcjoe |
Recent history doesn't really make much difference as a lot of factors can change that - weaker teams in league, bigger gaps between bottom and middle, etc etc
There is a decent sized gap between the top4-5 teams in this league and the rest and it seems unlikely that a normal amount of points will be enough this year - but it is only showing it as a 50:50 chance |
This season is more similar to last season than other years in respect that they're the only ones after Covid with clubs tending to run smaller squads, so that could potentially have an impact in the second half of campaigns.
From the top six at this stage last season, Portsmouth, Doncaster and Accrington all fell away in the second half of the campaign and finished outside the play-off/automatic places and Lincoln dropped from first to fifth.
https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:league-one/daterange/fromdate:2 |  | | |
| NTT20 podcast on 16:25 - Jan 12 with 950 views | jayessess |
| NTT20 podcast on 11:02 - Jan 12 by Guthrum |
Except the points total for 6th place is not a line rising smoothly throughout the season. There will be fair degree of "wobble" as form fluctuates and teams rise or fall. Being a few points up at the half-way stage by no means guarantees that boost will remain over the rest of the season.
So many factors are at play. Will Gillingham's terrible form persist now Evans has been sacked? Will Plymouth continue to slide from what looked a few weeks ago to be an unassailable position? Will Wigan win enough of their games in hand to maintain position? |
It's an estimate, not a prediction.
Some teams will drop off a cliff, others will get better, some will continue accumulating at roughly the same level they are now.
Thus far the top end of the table have collected more points than usual, you'd expect them to regress to the mean, but the points they've already got are there already, hence... reasonable estimate of where the play-off line would be. | |
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