Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
Forum index | Previous Thread | Next thread
Labour now has 13 point lead 19:35 - Jan 17 with 1962 viewsHARRY10

Lab 43%
Con 30%
Libdems 9%

Which would see the Tories lose 161 seats, and Labour in government with a 54 seat majority,

Far from any bounce back, it has been a steady decline - long may it continue.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=3
[Post edited 17 Jan 19:40]
0
Labour now has 13 point lead on 19:41 - Jan 17 with 1519 viewsChurchman

The 30% should have their vote taken away. If they seriously want to keep this lot in they’re clearly a sandwich short of a picnic.
6

Labour now has 13 point lead on 19:56 - Jan 17 with 1451 viewsBobsthename

As bad as it is it’s better than the other options.
0

Labour now has 13 point lead on 19:58 - Jan 17 with 1436 viewsGlasgowBlue

That's the biggest lead Labour have had over the Tories since two years before they lost the 2015 election.

“A man must be excessively stupid, as well as uncharitable, who believes that there is no virtue but on his own side, and that there are not men as honest as himself who may differ from him in political principles”.
Poll: Who would you rather see relegated from the Premier League?
Blog: [Blog] For the Sake of My Football Club, Please Go

0

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:00 - Jan 17 with 1438 viewsClapham_Junction

Unfortunately I think the polling data is not quite as positive as it first looks. One reason for the massive lead is that nearly a quarter of Tory voters from 2019 have switched to don't know or won't vote. If most of them end up voting Tory again then it's going to be much closer.
2

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:02 - Jan 17 with 1420 viewsChurchman

Labour now has 13 point lead on 19:56 - Jan 17 by Bobsthename

As bad as it is it’s better than the other options.


If the tories want to do anything they need to ship out Johnson and his cronies, thickos and sycophants now. They won’t because they are rotten to the core and getting rid of that lot wouldn’t leave enough people to run a bath.
0
Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:05 - Jan 17 with 1392 viewsNthsuffolkblue

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:00 - Jan 17 by Clapham_Junction

Unfortunately I think the polling data is not quite as positive as it first looks. One reason for the massive lead is that nearly a quarter of Tory voters from 2019 have switched to don't know or won't vote. If most of them end up voting Tory again then it's going to be much closer.


This is the thing. It is easy for a disgruntled Tory voter to tell a poll they won't vote or they don't know who they will vote for ... but we all know they will vote for someone more right wing and probably just as corrupt as Boris. They just don't find Boris right wing enough. They would probably still vote for him if push came to shove. Just posturing to get someone more right wing in. Utterly depressing.

Poll: Favourite pizza
Blog: [Blog] Ghostbusters

2
Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:13 - Jan 17 with 1338 viewsClapham_Junction

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:05 - Jan 17 by Nthsuffolkblue

This is the thing. It is easy for a disgruntled Tory voter to tell a poll they won't vote or they don't know who they will vote for ... but we all know they will vote for someone more right wing and probably just as corrupt as Boris. They just don't find Boris right wing enough. They would probably still vote for him if push came to shove. Just posturing to get someone more right wing in. Utterly depressing.


If what's happened already still isn't enough to make them switch to another party, then I think it's quite likely they'll go back to them, particularly if they get a new leader.

Looking further at the data, it's noticeable that nearly as many men would still vote Tory as Labour (36%/38%). For women the split is 24% vs 50%; the figures for other parties are identical, except for the Greens (6% vs 8% split) and REFUK (5% vs 3%).
1
Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:13 - Jan 17 with 1337 viewsHerbivore

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:00 - Jan 17 by Clapham_Junction

Unfortunately I think the polling data is not quite as positive as it first looks. One reason for the massive lead is that nearly a quarter of Tory voters from 2019 have switched to don't know or won't vote. If most of them end up voting Tory again then it's going to be much closer.


Indeed. The shy Tory has become the reclusive Tory I suspect. That so many people would still vote for them after they've made their contempt for the public utterly clear is really quite mental.

Poll: Should someone on benefits earn more than David Cameron?
Blog: Where Did It All Go Wrong for Paul Hurst?

4
Login to get fewer ads

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:15 - Jan 17 with 1331 viewsFtnfwest

Starmer’s starting to risk it all by talking about things though
0

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:15 - Jan 17 with 1327 viewsDarth_Koont

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:00 - Jan 17 by Clapham_Junction

Unfortunately I think the polling data is not quite as positive as it first looks. One reason for the massive lead is that nearly a quarter of Tory voters from 2019 have switched to don't know or won't vote. If most of them end up voting Tory again then it's going to be much closer.


Exactly. As you say, unfortunately there are very few Labour inroads here.

I posted it the other day but it’s hugely worrying the power of our billionaire-dominated media. With this party episode, over something that is nowhere near as important as actual policy and lasting damage, they say jump and we do.

Anybody that the media pushes next time needs to be resisted on those grounds alone. Johnson and everyone who ever supported him into power need to apologise — or they have absolutely no validity.

This wasn’t just foreseeable — we’ve been seeing it for years but until now it suited them.

Pronouns: He/Him

0
Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:18 - Jan 17 with 1296 viewsfooters

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:15 - Jan 17 by Darth_Koont

Exactly. As you say, unfortunately there are very few Labour inroads here.

I posted it the other day but it’s hugely worrying the power of our billionaire-dominated media. With this party episode, over something that is nowhere near as important as actual policy and lasting damage, they say jump and we do.

Anybody that the media pushes next time needs to be resisted on those grounds alone. Johnson and everyone who ever supported him into power need to apologise — or they have absolutely no validity.

This wasn’t just foreseeable — we’ve been seeing it for years but until now it suited them.


Are you suggesting Allison Pearson isn't a serious, well-intentioned journalist?

She could sue for that, you know.

footers QC - Prosecution Barrister, Hasketon Law Chambers
Poll: Battle of the breakfast potato... who wins?

0
Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:20 - Jan 17 with 1275 viewsNthsuffolkblue

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:13 - Jan 17 by Clapham_Junction

If what's happened already still isn't enough to make them switch to another party, then I think it's quite likely they'll go back to them, particularly if they get a new leader.

Looking further at the data, it's noticeable that nearly as many men would still vote Tory as Labour (36%/38%). For women the split is 24% vs 50%; the figures for other parties are identical, except for the Greens (6% vs 8% split) and REFUK (5% vs 3%).


Are you telling me that more men support racism, corruption, incompetence and discrimination than women? You do shock me! (Not, in case the sarcasm needs clarifying.)

Poll: Favourite pizza
Blog: [Blog] Ghostbusters

1
Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:24 - Jan 17 with 1252 viewsElderGrizzly

With boundary moves in 2023, it apparently only gives a majority to Labour of only 6
0

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:25 - Jan 17 with 1242 viewsGlasgowBlue

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:20 - Jan 17 by Nthsuffolkblue

Are you telling me that more men support racism, corruption, incompetence and discrimination than women? You do shock me! (Not, in case the sarcasm needs clarifying.)


You're looking at this the wrong way. The Tories won the last election, and continued to have healthy poll leads, in spite of the racism, corruption, incompetence and discrimination.

What seems to have turned women off more than men is the flagrant disregard for his own lockdown rules. That probably suggests that more men than women secretly wish they could have been partying like it's 1999 during the pandemic.

“A man must be excessively stupid, as well as uncharitable, who believes that there is no virtue but on his own side, and that there are not men as honest as himself who may differ from him in political principles”.
Poll: Who would you rather see relegated from the Premier League?
Blog: [Blog] For the Sake of My Football Club, Please Go

0
Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:33 - Jan 17 with 1201 viewsDarth_Koont

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:18 - Jan 17 by footers

Are you suggesting Allison Pearson isn't a serious, well-intentioned journalist?

She could sue for that, you know.


Haha!

Just think. Someone like Allison Pearson is actually closer to the norm in the UK media rather than some fruit-loop outlier. Incredible!

I’m actually amazed how dishonest and venal that industry is. And I work in advertising, which is often bad enough.

But hey if my job was to sell my own self-interest to the public and package it as their interests, I’d be pretty good at that. Well, as long as I could type while sucking Satan’s c0ck.

Pronouns: He/Him

0
Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:46 - Jan 17 with 1149 viewsDarth_Koont

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:15 - Jan 17 by Ftnfwest

Starmer’s starting to risk it all by talking about things though


Don’t worry. Starmer certainly isn’t. They’re just his words — and his words can and will change.

I like you Ftnfers — even though we have very different politics — so here’s my top tip. Put all your weight behind Starmer. I think he’ll be everything you ever dreamed of in a Labour leader.

Pronouns: He/Him

0
Labour now has 13 point lead on 21:03 - Jan 17 with 1084 viewseireblue

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:13 - Jan 17 by Herbivore

Indeed. The shy Tory has become the reclusive Tory I suspect. That so many people would still vote for them after they've made their contempt for the public utterly clear is really quite mental.


I have heard told of some Tories so ashamed they only manage downvotes on social media sites.
2
Labour now has 13 point lead on 21:07 - Jan 17 with 1069 viewsfactual_blue

Yes, but daveU.

Ta neige, Acadie, fait des larmes au soleil
Poll: Best birthdays of today
Blog: [Blog] The Shape We're In

2

Labour now has 13 point lead on 21:25 - Jan 17 with 1006 viewsSeablu

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:25 - Jan 17 by GlasgowBlue

You're looking at this the wrong way. The Tories won the last election, and continued to have healthy poll leads, in spite of the racism, corruption, incompetence and discrimination.

What seems to have turned women off more than men is the flagrant disregard for his own lockdown rules. That probably suggests that more men than women secretly wish they could have been partying like it's 1999 during the pandemic.


You speak as if this is a recent manifestation.
You’ve spent the majority of your life supporting all these things by tickling the tory dirt box with undisguised pride.
Unbelievable, Jeff.
3
Labour now has 13 point lead on 21:36 - Jan 17 with 967 viewsFtnfwest

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:46 - Jan 17 by Darth_Koont

Don’t worry. Starmer certainly isn’t. They’re just his words — and his words can and will change.

I like you Ftnfers — even though we have very different politics — so here’s my top tip. Put all your weight behind Starmer. I think he’ll be everything you ever dreamed of in a Labour leader.


I really thought he would be when he came in tbh, but in the end have never seen any appeal. It’s all relative of course but there we go. Anyway are you going to MK, we’ll have to meet up and make fun of each other. Only 35 miles for me.
0
Labour now has 13 point lead on 21:46 - Jan 17 with 925 viewsDarth_Koont

Labour now has 13 point lead on 21:36 - Jan 17 by Ftnfwest

I really thought he would be when he came in tbh, but in the end have never seen any appeal. It’s all relative of course but there we go. Anyway are you going to MK, we’ll have to meet up and make fun of each other. Only 35 miles for me.


That’s why we get on. Yes, there’s literally nothing appealing about Starmer. Or serious or trustworthy, which is even more important.

Not MK Dons, unfortunately. I’ll have to buy you a beer and have a class war fumble another day. 😀

Pronouns: He/Him

0
Labour now has 13 point lead on 23:01 - Jan 17 with 787 viewsGuthrum

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:00 - Jan 17 by Clapham_Junction

Unfortunately I think the polling data is not quite as positive as it first looks. One reason for the massive lead is that nearly a quarter of Tory voters from 2019 have switched to don't know or won't vote. If most of them end up voting Tory again then it's going to be much closer.


However, counter to that, you had in 2019 a large number of first-time Conservative voters, the ones who swung the Red Wall blue.

Are they going to stick with that choice when they are no longer impelled by thoughts of "getting Brexit done", breaking the Parliamentary deadlock, or perceptions of a hard-left Labour Party, coupled with revelations of Downing Street partying while they were locked down*? Are they instead going to turn away, either to their former allegiance or to new ones?

2017 was effectively a Hung Parliament, Theresa May only able to form a government in alliance with the DUP (that isn't likely to happen again). That may be a better template than the unusual and febrile circumstances of December 2019.

I did think that Labour would be very unlikely to win back many of the Northern seats they lost in 2019 (same with the LibDems). However, Johnson's administration has made such a monumental pig's ear of conducting themselves in office and handling the fallout, I'm beginning to think they may have handed them back on a plate. It could be 1997 all over again.



* Remember, parts of the North had restrictions for longer than many other areas.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
Poll: McCarthy: A More Nuanced Poll
Blog: [Blog] For Those Panicking About the Lack of Transfer Activity

0
Labour now has 13 point lead on 23:11 - Jan 17 with 770 viewstractordownsouth

Labour now has 13 point lead on 20:00 - Jan 17 by Clapham_Junction

Unfortunately I think the polling data is not quite as positive as it first looks. One reason for the massive lead is that nearly a quarter of Tory voters from 2019 have switched to don't know or won't vote. If most of them end up voting Tory again then it's going to be much closer.


To counter your point about the don't knows, the twitter polling I've seen says about 10% of Tory voters are switching direct to Labour. This is the same as the figure from 1997 and 2019 in reverse. The biggest thing those victories had in common were a massive drop in turnout for the other party.

That being said, there's virtually zero precedent for a party to go from 200 seats to entering government in one electoral cycle. Cameron managed it in 2010, but he inherited a party that had lost the previous election by only 3% so there plenty of winnable marginals, whereas Labour lost by 11% in 2019 so it'll be much harder to replicate.

Poll: Preferred Lambert replacement?
Blog: League One Preview 2020/21

0
Labour now has 13 point lead on 23:16 - Jan 17 with 743 viewsGlasgowBlue

Labour now has 13 point lead on 23:01 - Jan 17 by Guthrum

However, counter to that, you had in 2019 a large number of first-time Conservative voters, the ones who swung the Red Wall blue.

Are they going to stick with that choice when they are no longer impelled by thoughts of "getting Brexit done", breaking the Parliamentary deadlock, or perceptions of a hard-left Labour Party, coupled with revelations of Downing Street partying while they were locked down*? Are they instead going to turn away, either to their former allegiance or to new ones?

2017 was effectively a Hung Parliament, Theresa May only able to form a government in alliance with the DUP (that isn't likely to happen again). That may be a better template than the unusual and febrile circumstances of December 2019.

I did think that Labour would be very unlikely to win back many of the Northern seats they lost in 2019 (same with the LibDems). However, Johnson's administration has made such a monumental pig's ear of conducting themselves in office and handling the fallout, I'm beginning to think they may have handed them back on a plate. It could be 1997 all over again.



* Remember, parts of the North had restrictions for longer than many other areas.



“A man must be excessively stupid, as well as uncharitable, who believes that there is no virtue but on his own side, and that there are not men as honest as himself who may differ from him in political principles”.
Poll: Who would you rather see relegated from the Premier League?
Blog: [Blog] For the Sake of My Football Club, Please Go

0
Labour now has 13 point lead on 00:23 - Jan 18 with 665 viewsXYZ

Labour now has 13 point lead on 23:16 - Jan 17 by GlasgowBlue



Don't show that to Peter Bone (ref: Newsnight interview).

Got to love the MP coming up with the "what I've been hearing on the doorsteps ..." made up boule sheit.
0

Please log in or register. Registered visitors get fewer ads.
About Us Contact Us Terms & Conditions Privacy Cookies Advertising
© TWTD 1995-2022