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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... 21:40 - Jan 20 with 2028 viewsPippin1970

The British sending out troops and equipment etc etc
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 21:43 - Jan 20 with 1835 viewshomer_123

Equipment yes. No troops though.

Ade Akinbiyi couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo...
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 21:47 - Jan 20 with 1810 viewsCheltenham_Blue

There won’t be any direct clashes between Uk or Us troops and Russian ones. We can’t risk that.
With the number of troops amassed on the border, there will be an inevitable flashpoint and Putin will use the, ‘they attacked us first’ excuse to invade.

(Coincidentally straight from the Hitler playbook)

We’ll put troops on the Polish, Slovakian and Hungarian borders so they don’t come any further and hit them with massive sanctions, then when Putin threatens to turn the gas off, we’ll turn a bit more friendly.

Welcome to the second Cold War. Exactly what Putin has been after.

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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 22:15 - Jan 20 with 1709 viewsGlasgowBlue

That can’t be right. I thought Brexit Britain was isolationist. It must have been the Germans.

Oh!

“A man must be excessively stupid, as well as uncharitable, who believes that there is no virtue but on his own side, and that there are not men as honest as himself who may differ from him in political principles”.
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 23:23 - Jan 20 with 1571 viewsXYZ

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 22:15 - Jan 20 by GlasgowBlue

That can’t be right. I thought Brexit Britain was isolationist. It must have been the Germans.

Oh!


Britain is doing what the US has told it to do.

As with Liz Truss's forthcoming backtrack on Northern Ireland.

If you want a trade deal ...
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 23:46 - Jan 20 with 1523 viewsJ2BLUE

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 21:43 - Jan 20 by homer_123

Equipment yes. No troops though.


30 elite troops apparently to train the Ukraine forces to use anti tank weapons.

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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 06:17 - Jan 21 with 1235 viewsvictorywilhappen

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 21:47 - Jan 20 by Cheltenham_Blue

There won’t be any direct clashes between Uk or Us troops and Russian ones. We can’t risk that.
With the number of troops amassed on the border, there will be an inevitable flashpoint and Putin will use the, ‘they attacked us first’ excuse to invade.

(Coincidentally straight from the Hitler playbook)

We’ll put troops on the Polish, Slovakian and Hungarian borders so they don’t come any further and hit them with massive sanctions, then when Putin threatens to turn the gas off, we’ll turn a bit more friendly.

Welcome to the second Cold War. Exactly what Putin has been after.


NATO already had troops on the Eastern border. Part of Putin's unrealistic demands is to go back to 1997 where fewer Eastern Euro members of NATO. Also demanding no further expansion. ( Finland, Ukraine , Albania)

The war started a while back. Hybrid and implementation of Putin puppets in Kiev.
The refugee influx into Europe will be another front - caused no doubt by a ground invasion that will happen and no one can stop. The casualties will be high.

Controlling the energy, Refugee influx, no stomach from the west for fighting will see Putin do what he wants. With or without high loss of life.

There was the start of a large extra Russian troop arrival in Belarus this week . Bullhead strategy ?

Need to move before the Spring thaw as the ground becomes mud.

Sanction don't really work as Russian has more away from dependence on foreign currency.

Along with high inflation, covid, restrictions, energy crisis and winter blues the feeling on the Eastern front is when /how not if.
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 07:41 - Jan 21 with 1140 viewsTractorWood

Biden didn't really help with his 'action taken will be less severe if Russia just invade a bit' comment.

Short of every country on earth (ex China) imposing ridiculous restrictions, I'm not entirely sure what meaningful sanctions can be put in place.

Putin appears to be dipping his toe slowly to see what retaliation happens and the answer is vague and un-joined up international waffle.

I know that was then, but it could be again..
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 08:48 - Jan 21 with 1070 viewsChurchman

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 21:47 - Jan 20 by Cheltenham_Blue

There won’t be any direct clashes between Uk or Us troops and Russian ones. We can’t risk that.
With the number of troops amassed on the border, there will be an inevitable flashpoint and Putin will use the, ‘they attacked us first’ excuse to invade.

(Coincidentally straight from the Hitler playbook)

We’ll put troops on the Polish, Slovakian and Hungarian borders so they don’t come any further and hit them with massive sanctions, then when Putin threatens to turn the gas off, we’ll turn a bit more friendly.

Welcome to the second Cold War. Exactly what Putin has been after.


There is no stomach for facing down Russia and Ukraine will be swallowed up. Biden has virtually handed it over. The question is what next for Putin? Baltic states possibly?

Sanctions don’t and won’t work and it feels like NATO is an entity in name only now - especially as the US appetite for foreign intervention is zero after Iraq/Afghanistan.

Maybe in the long term Russia, China and the US will sit down and carve up the world into three spheres of influence? Thinking here of the the Napoleon/William Pitt 19c Gillray cartoon which had more than a ring of truth about it.

Just idle nonsense speculation on my part.
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 08:51 - Jan 21 with 1055 viewsGlasgowBlue

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 08:48 - Jan 21 by Churchman

There is no stomach for facing down Russia and Ukraine will be swallowed up. Biden has virtually handed it over. The question is what next for Putin? Baltic states possibly?

Sanctions don’t and won’t work and it feels like NATO is an entity in name only now - especially as the US appetite for foreign intervention is zero after Iraq/Afghanistan.

Maybe in the long term Russia, China and the US will sit down and carve up the world into three spheres of influence? Thinking here of the the Napoleon/William Pitt 19c Gillray cartoon which had more than a ring of truth about it.

Just idle nonsense speculation on my part.


Biden is turning into a massive disappointment. Last year Afghanistan and this year Ukraine.

“A man must be excessively stupid, as well as uncharitable, who believes that there is no virtue but on his own side, and that there are not men as honest as himself who may differ from him in political principles”.
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 09:22 - Jan 21 with 982 viewsSteve_M

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 08:48 - Jan 21 by Churchman

There is no stomach for facing down Russia and Ukraine will be swallowed up. Biden has virtually handed it over. The question is what next for Putin? Baltic states possibly?

Sanctions don’t and won’t work and it feels like NATO is an entity in name only now - especially as the US appetite for foreign intervention is zero after Iraq/Afghanistan.

Maybe in the long term Russia, China and the US will sit down and carve up the world into three spheres of influence? Thinking here of the the Napoleon/William Pitt 19c Gillray cartoon which had more than a ring of truth about it.

Just idle nonsense speculation on my part.


I don't think that's true although Biden's comments were unhelpful. He didn't cede all of Ukraine but implied that a limited action would see a limited response. The deliberately loud pronouncements from Washington are evidence that the US does care about the status of Ukraine.

Russia is quite capable of winning a quick symbolic victory but has nowhere near enough troops in place to occupy all of Ukraine or even large parts outside of those they already have de facto control over. The Ukrainian military would remain strong enough to inflict heavy casualties on Russian troops.

It's probable that any Russian action (actually further Russian action given this has been a live conflict since 2014) will be limited but unpleasant but aimed to reduce the severity of the response.

Sanctions should go further, the cosy relationship between lawyers, private schools and estate agents and indeed politicians with cash from Putin's is destructive to the UK and other European countries.

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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:13 - Jan 21 with 928 viewsGuthrum

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 07:41 - Jan 21 by TractorWood

Biden didn't really help with his 'action taken will be less severe if Russia just invade a bit' comment.

Short of every country on earth (ex China) imposing ridiculous restrictions, I'm not entirely sure what meaningful sanctions can be put in place.

Putin appears to be dipping his toe slowly to see what retaliation happens and the answer is vague and un-joined up international waffle.


Biden's comments were correct - a cyber attack or training insurgents are not considered the same level as tanks rolling across the border. Perhaps not worded precisely enough, or (deliberately, to make him look bad?) misinterpreted.

The Russian economy is not in a very good place (IMO part of the reason for this sabre-rattling), plus it is possible to hurt close Putin associates, if not the man himself. They stash a lot of their loot abroad, after all.

A problem with the international reaction is that nobody except Russia really wants to go to war over Ukraine. It's a distraction no-one wants at the moment, as economies struggle to recover from Covid. I think it's been about as strong as one could have expected.

Good Lord! Whatever is it?
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:15 - Jan 21 with 921 viewsWeWereZombies

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 08:51 - Jan 21 by GlasgowBlue

Biden is turning into a massive disappointment. Last year Afghanistan and this year Ukraine.


The debacle that was the withdrawal from Afghanistan was set up by Trump, and would have been worse had Trump still been President.

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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:18 - Jan 21 with 905 viewsKeno

do we know what Bristol City fans think about this?

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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:21 - Jan 21 with 893 viewshype313

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:18 - Jan 21 by Keno

do we know what Bristol City fans think about this?


Still waiting for Sue Grey's verdict.

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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:23 - Jan 21 with 887 viewsPinewoodblue

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:13 - Jan 21 by Guthrum

Biden's comments were correct - a cyber attack or training insurgents are not considered the same level as tanks rolling across the border. Perhaps not worded precisely enough, or (deliberately, to make him look bad?) misinterpreted.

The Russian economy is not in a very good place (IMO part of the reason for this sabre-rattling), plus it is possible to hurt close Putin associates, if not the man himself. They stash a lot of their loot abroad, after all.

A problem with the international reaction is that nobody except Russia really wants to go to war over Ukraine. It's a distraction no-one wants at the moment, as economies struggle to recover from Covid. I think it's been about as strong as one could have expected.


I assume NATO is divided on this with some fearing retaliation from Russia if sanctions are severe. Could harm Recovery in those Countries dependent on Russian energy supplies.

Will also push prices up leading to further inflation.

Good job we have a strong, reliable government NOT.

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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:30 - Jan 21 with 856 viewsChurchman

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 09:22 - Jan 21 by Steve_M

I don't think that's true although Biden's comments were unhelpful. He didn't cede all of Ukraine but implied that a limited action would see a limited response. The deliberately loud pronouncements from Washington are evidence that the US does care about the status of Ukraine.

Russia is quite capable of winning a quick symbolic victory but has nowhere near enough troops in place to occupy all of Ukraine or even large parts outside of those they already have de facto control over. The Ukrainian military would remain strong enough to inflict heavy casualties on Russian troops.

It's probable that any Russian action (actually further Russian action given this has been a live conflict since 2014) will be limited but unpleasant but aimed to reduce the severity of the response.

Sanctions should go further, the cosy relationship between lawyers, private schools and estate agents and indeed politicians with cash from Putin's is destructive to the UK and other European countries.


You are of course probably right. It’s just uninformed speculation on my part.

Russia swallowed the Crimea with plenty of sabre rattling but materially little else from the West. If it slices off another chunk for any old reason (ethnicity whatever), little will happen bar deaths that Putin certainly won’t care about.

Then another slice? I see visions of Czechoslovakia 1938, though that was done in only two chunks. When the Munich Agreement was signed, the Czech head honcho Edvard Benes wasn’t even in the room! Such is power politics. A poor comparison, but I just get that nasty feeling.
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:36 - Jan 21 with 844 viewsSteve_M

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:30 - Jan 21 by Churchman

You are of course probably right. It’s just uninformed speculation on my part.

Russia swallowed the Crimea with plenty of sabre rattling but materially little else from the West. If it slices off another chunk for any old reason (ethnicity whatever), little will happen bar deaths that Putin certainly won’t care about.

Then another slice? I see visions of Czechoslovakia 1938, though that was done in only two chunks. When the Munich Agreement was signed, the Czech head honcho Edvard Benes wasn’t even in the room! Such is power politics. A poor comparison, but I just get that nasty feeling.


Crimea has enormous symbolic value for Russia, the home of the Black Sea Fleet and a holiday resort for the elite and some strategic value as well. The other occupied territories somewhat less so despite the pro-Russian leanings of many of those people. They could have been absorbed into Russia in 2014 but it seems that the cost of subsidising those regions was a large part of the reason why.

Putin has backed himself into a bit of a corner, ridiculous demands - that Russia has a veto over other countries sovereign decisions because they were Soviet satellites for 45 years or part of the USSR - that can't be met leave him very little room to back down without some military, or paramilitary, action.

It's not quite like AJP Taylor's 'war according to railway timetables' of 1914 but there are uncomfortable echoes.

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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:40 - Jan 21 with 829 viewsSteve_M

Might be of interest:

https://cepa.org/are-putins-oligarchs-ready-for-war/

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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:49 - Jan 21 with 793 viewsChurchman

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:36 - Jan 21 by Steve_M

Crimea has enormous symbolic value for Russia, the home of the Black Sea Fleet and a holiday resort for the elite and some strategic value as well. The other occupied territories somewhat less so despite the pro-Russian leanings of many of those people. They could have been absorbed into Russia in 2014 but it seems that the cost of subsidising those regions was a large part of the reason why.

Putin has backed himself into a bit of a corner, ridiculous demands - that Russia has a veto over other countries sovereign decisions because they were Soviet satellites for 45 years or part of the USSR - that can't be met leave him very little room to back down without some military, or paramilitary, action.

It's not quite like AJP Taylor's 'war according to railway timetables' of 1914 but there are uncomfortable echoes.


I’ve not read that, but I have read Max Hastings’ Armageddon (worth a read if a bit hard going in parts) and a number of other books on WW1 and you are spot on - disturbing echos.
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:53 - Jan 21 with 783 viewstractorboyjames

I just feel sorry for the people of the Ukraine in all this.

The usual types have tried to blame the West in this - pushing NATO and the EU borders eastward. That is really sad to see - the Ukrainians have the right to pursue whatever future they want - be that a liberal Western style democracy they should have the self-determination to do so. Putin is just a bully and has no right to decide the future of Ukraine under the pretext of Russian security.
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 11:19 - Jan 21 with 727 viewsmatteoblue

The armed standoff in eastern Ukraine which has been going on since 2015, can only be resolved by the implementation of the Minsk II protocol, agreed by Russia, the US, Ukraine, Germany, France and the UN Security Council. This agreement says that troops need to be withdrawn, a restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty and full autonomy for the Donbas. But western countries have continued to back Ukrainian nationalists who want to kick out the Russians from the region. If the US doesn't sort out a solution with Ukraine soon, Russia will take the Donbas back under their control by annexing it, just like they did with Crimea. The only other option is a full scale US-Russia war, which could well escalate into a nuclear war. So perhaps it's best to consider and implement the only option, sooner rather than later.
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 11:29 - Jan 21 with 691 viewsGlasgowBlue

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:15 - Jan 21 by WeWereZombies

The debacle that was the withdrawal from Afghanistan was set up by Trump, and would have been worse had Trump still been President.


It may well have been started by Trump but was still handled badly by Biden.

His statement during the withdrawal process was utterly reprehensible.

Biden by GlasgowBlue 17 Aug 2021 12:13
Americans should not die in a war that the afghan army aren’t willing to fight for themselves.

50,000 Afghan troops have died fighting the Taliban in the last 7 years. In that same period the Americans have lost 270 military personnel. Each one obviously a tragedy.

There have been no American deaths in Afghanistan since February 2020. A small presence with air support would have ensured continued safety for the Afghan people.

Meet the new boss.



As I said at the time, being less worse than Trump in Afghanistan is a poor defence. But going back before Trump...



I repeat. Biden is turning out to be a massive disappointment. If Obama was Mick and Trump was Hurst, then Biden is increasingly looking like Paul Cook.
[Post edited 21 Jan 11:31]

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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 11:44 - Jan 21 with 656 viewsTractorWood

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 10:13 - Jan 21 by Guthrum

Biden's comments were correct - a cyber attack or training insurgents are not considered the same level as tanks rolling across the border. Perhaps not worded precisely enough, or (deliberately, to make him look bad?) misinterpreted.

The Russian economy is not in a very good place (IMO part of the reason for this sabre-rattling), plus it is possible to hurt close Putin associates, if not the man himself. They stash a lot of their loot abroad, after all.

A problem with the international reaction is that nobody except Russia really wants to go to war over Ukraine. It's a distraction no-one wants at the moment, as economies struggle to recover from Covid. I think it's been about as strong as one could have expected.


From the interview I saw it looked like he was talking about boots on the ground specifically. There were no caveats about hacks etc.

I don't dislike Biden but sometimes it feels like he forgets he's US president when he opens his mouth. It's quite an easy job publicly, just be delphic. The Whitehouse has to correct him quite a lot as he's overly specific and hypothetical.

I know that was then, but it could be again..
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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 11:49 - Jan 21 with 635 viewsPinewoodblue

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 11:44 - Jan 21 by TractorWood

From the interview I saw it looked like he was talking about boots on the ground specifically. There were no caveats about hacks etc.

I don't dislike Biden but sometimes it feels like he forgets he's US president when he opens his mouth. It's quite an easy job publicly, just be delphic. The Whitehouse has to correct him quite a lot as he's overly specific and hypothetical.


Think he has just two press conferences , where he answers questions etc, in a year.

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Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 13:39 - Jan 21 with 472 viewsIpswichKnight

Russia to invade Ukraine looks likely to happen.... on 07:41 - Jan 21 by TractorWood

Biden didn't really help with his 'action taken will be less severe if Russia just invade a bit' comment.

Short of every country on earth (ex China) imposing ridiculous restrictions, I'm not entirely sure what meaningful sanctions can be put in place.

Putin appears to be dipping his toe slowly to see what retaliation happens and the answer is vague and un-joined up international waffle.


One thing I heard was they would suspend/block Russia from SWIFT the international banking transfer system that would make moving money out of Russian banks near on impossible.

Interesting that UK did not apply to Germany to move anti tank weapons via German airspace ( can take 2 weeks to get clearance) instead they flew via Danish and polish airspace ( though a pilot did also say with the winds it was also more economical to go that way as well ). We did have permission from Sweden to export the weapons to Ukraine as they are Swedish made and require Sweden to approve the transfer.
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