| Johnson approval rating on 14:38 - Jan 21 with 479 views | Darth_Koont |
| Johnson approval rating on 14:13 - Jan 21 by GlasgowBlue |
Scotland saved Labour in 2005. Which is contrary to DK’s claim that Blair lost Scotland.
Without the Scottish Labour vote in 2005 we’d have had Michael Howard as PM. |
No, I said New Labour lost Scotland as Labour did very little in 13 years of government to prove their credentials as an alternative to the Tories.
The upwards momentum for the SNP and Labour’s downwards momentum in the Scottish parliament elections just kept going after that into Westminster elections.
Penny took a bit longer to drop in the North with UKIP and Brexit getting in the way, but the inability/unwillingness of Labour to change much of substance when in government started the Red wall crumble.
Interesting that in Wales the party has largely stayed a lot closer to its socialist/social democrat roots with a principled “leftie” like Drakeford in charge. Should be the model for Labour really. Rather than this Red Team centre-right nonsense, that looks like it most serves the selfish, careerist and financial interests of much of the the PLP and party functionaries. |  |
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| Johnson approval rating on 14:46 - Jan 21 with 442 views | HARRY10 |
| Johnson approval rating on 14:36 - Jan 21 by tractordownsouth |
Yeah, despite the polls there isn't going to a Labour landslide at the next election. It was more to illustrate how far Johnson has sunk and that if the Tories have any sense they'll get rid of him ASAP. |
Unfortunately Johnson selected a cabinet of third raters to ensure no one outshone him - so there is not much in the way of a decent replacement.
If they look for reset with a moderate such as Hunt, it will mean upsetting the swivel eyed that currently hold sway At the moment those self same swivel eyed (Dorries) are placated by having a weak leader who will agree to anything.
Meanwhile the moderates are consoling themselves with the thought 'our day will come'. Allow the loons to have full rein and it will be such a fck up that the party will demand our return. Sadly this was what Cameron thought with the referendum. He grossly underestimated how many stupid people there are in the uk.
In that light I am not sure the moderates will wrest back control when the battle commences. |  | | |
| Johnson approval rating on 14:51 - Jan 21 with 429 views | tractordownsouth |
| Johnson approval rating on 14:38 - Jan 21 by Darth_Koont |
No, I said New Labour lost Scotland as Labour did very little in 13 years of government to prove their credentials as an alternative to the Tories.
The upwards momentum for the SNP and Labour’s downwards momentum in the Scottish parliament elections just kept going after that into Westminster elections.
Penny took a bit longer to drop in the North with UKIP and Brexit getting in the way, but the inability/unwillingness of Labour to change much of substance when in government started the Red wall crumble.
Interesting that in Wales the party has largely stayed a lot closer to its socialist/social democrat roots with a principled “leftie” like Drakeford in charge. Should be the model for Labour really. Rather than this Red Team centre-right nonsense, that looks like it most serves the selfish, careerist and financial interests of much of the the PLP and party functionaries. |
There's very little correlation between the ideology of the leader and the success of Welsh Labour in Senedd elections. Apart from Alun Michael, they've all subscribed to the 'clear red water' strategy in different ways. And even though Drakeford would probably be in the SCG if he were an MP, he's quite pragmatic and the Plaid manifesto was to the left of Labour's last time out. I think it's more a question of national identity and Plaid having less effective leaders than Salmond and Sturgeon.
1999: Alun Michael (Blairite) 28 seats
2003: Rhodri Morgan (Left) 30 seats
2007: Rhodri Morgan (Left) 26 seats
2011: Carwyn Jones (Soft left) 30 seats
2016: Carwyn Jones (Soft left) 29 seats
2021: Mark Drakeford (Left) 30 seats |  |
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| Johnson approval rating on 15:00 - Jan 21 with 409 views | Darth_Koont |
| Johnson approval rating on 14:51 - Jan 21 by tractordownsouth |
There's very little correlation between the ideology of the leader and the success of Welsh Labour in Senedd elections. Apart from Alun Michael, they've all subscribed to the 'clear red water' strategy in different ways. And even though Drakeford would probably be in the SCG if he were an MP, he's quite pragmatic and the Plaid manifesto was to the left of Labour's last time out. I think it's more a question of national identity and Plaid having less effective leaders than Salmond and Sturgeon.
1999: Alun Michael (Blairite) 28 seats
2003: Rhodri Morgan (Left) 30 seats
2007: Rhodri Morgan (Left) 26 seats
2011: Carwyn Jones (Soft left) 30 seats
2016: Carwyn Jones (Soft left) 29 seats
2021: Mark Drakeford (Left) 30 seats |
Agree on that. Drakeford has passion and conviction for his values but is still a broad church leader. Ditto Sturgeon who is probably a little more on the right of the SNP coalition.
Will be interesting to see how Welsh Labour respond if the independence sentiment continues growing as it has the past half-dozen years. That dissatisfaction with Westminster will only increase given the current state of the government and, I fear, of the opposition too. | |
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| Johnson approval rating on 15:17 - Jan 21 with 386 views | tractordownsouth |
| Johnson approval rating on 15:00 - Jan 21 by Darth_Koont |
Agree on that. Drakeford has passion and conviction for his values but is still a broad church leader. Ditto Sturgeon who is probably a little more on the right of the SNP coalition.
Will be interesting to see how Welsh Labour respond if the independence sentiment continues growing as it has the past half-dozen years. That dissatisfaction with Westminster will only increase given the current state of the government and, I fear, of the opposition too. |
Covid meant that Drakeford became more visible than any previous FM so benefited from that and the fact his handling of the pandemic has polled better than the Tories, but on face value Plaid Cymru should have done well. It was the first time they'd made an independence referendum a key pledge and given that roughly a third of Labour voters support independence, it was probably the best wedge issue for them to choose.
A lot of the valleys seats that Labour win comfortably in Westminster are red-green marginals at a devolved level, and given that Welsh identity in that region is stronger there than anywhere except West Wales (where Plaid already dominates), it was the best place to target. I think the big mistake Price made was talking about Wales as a "colony" and demanding reparations from England. There is legitimate grievance over the way the union came into being but it was hundreds of years ago and isn't a valid comparison. That sort of language went down well with true believers but didn't do anything to bring over soft nationalist Labour voters. The end result was that all those Valleys seats saw swings to Labour and Plaid lost their only constituency seat in the region by over 5000 votes. | |
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| Johnson approval rating on 15:53 - Jan 21 with 355 views | Darth_Koont |
| Johnson approval rating on 15:17 - Jan 21 by tractordownsouth |
Covid meant that Drakeford became more visible than any previous FM so benefited from that and the fact his handling of the pandemic has polled better than the Tories, but on face value Plaid Cymru should have done well. It was the first time they'd made an independence referendum a key pledge and given that roughly a third of Labour voters support independence, it was probably the best wedge issue for them to choose.
A lot of the valleys seats that Labour win comfortably in Westminster are red-green marginals at a devolved level, and given that Welsh identity in that region is stronger there than anywhere except West Wales (where Plaid already dominates), it was the best place to target. I think the big mistake Price made was talking about Wales as a "colony" and demanding reparations from England. There is legitimate grievance over the way the union came into being but it was hundreds of years ago and isn't a valid comparison. That sort of language went down well with true believers but didn't do anything to bring over soft nationalist Labour voters. The end result was that all those Valleys seats saw swings to Labour and Plaid lost their only constituency seat in the region by over 5000 votes. |
Yeah, confirms what I’ve read that the growing Welsh independence sentiment isn’t so much to do with Plaid and their rhetoric.
https://nation.cymru/news/almost-half-of-converts-to-welsh-independence-voted-la
I suspect that this is the same dissatisfaction and disenfranchisement that we’ve seen in Scotland and the North of England over a similar period expressed in its own regional and national form. But there will come a point soon where Welsh Labour will have to address this or get dragged down by it. | |
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| Johnson approval rating on 11:06 - Jan 22 with 274 views | tractordownsouth |
| Johnson approval rating on 15:53 - Jan 21 by Darth_Koont |
Yeah, confirms what I’ve read that the growing Welsh independence sentiment isn’t so much to do with Plaid and their rhetoric.
https://nation.cymru/news/almost-half-of-converts-to-welsh-independence-voted-la
I suspect that this is the same dissatisfaction and disenfranchisement that we’ve seen in Scotland and the North of England over a similar period expressed in its own regional and national form. But there will come a point soon where Welsh Labour will have to address this or get dragged down by it. |
Two of the most avid independence supporters on my course at uni have since switched to becoming unionists in the last year. I even persuaded one to join Labour.
Not sure if that's representative of elsewhere but here's hoping! | |
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