| Last 13 games of the season 12:17 - Feb 15 with 1679 views | C_Jam_Blue |
To give myself a glimmer of hope I've been having a look at the last 13 games we have this season. My feeling is the hardest games by the final stages of the season are against teams who have something to play for be it promotion, play-offs or to avoid relegation. Amazing how many times teams scrapping for survival can pull off a shock result (Lincoln beating Plymouth and drawing with Wycombe for example).
So I did a quick summary looking at recent form (pts gained over the past 5 games) and if they are likely to be in a promotion/relegation fight.
Burton (4) Likely Mid Table
Cheltenham (8) Mid Table
Morecambe (3) Relegation scrap
Fleetwood (4) Relegation scrap
Lincoln (7) Relegation scrap but probably safe
Portsmouth (6) Mid Table, slim Play-off hopes
Oxford (7) Play-offs
Plymouth (10) Play-offs
Cambs Utd (5) Mid Table
Shrewsbury (4) Possible relegation scrap
Rotherham (15) Hopefully promoted by this stage and 'on the beach'
Wigan (8) Promotion/Play-off contender, ideally promoted by this stage
Crewe (0) Likely relegated unless they stage a remarkable recovery
Charlton (9) Mid Table
Two clumps of games that I think are the most awkward, Morecambe, Fleetwood, Lincoln then Oxford, Plymouth. Hopefully the fate of our last 5 opponents will have been sealed before we meet them. Only 4 sides averaging more than 1.5 pts per game in this set of fixtures. Felt more positive once I'd looked at this, still a tough ask with little room for error.
[Post edited 15 Feb 2022 12:33]
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| Last 13 games of the season on 12:30 - Feb 15 with 1567 views | iamipswich |
Any reason Charlton is missing on the last day sorry? |  |
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| Last 13 games of the season on 12:33 - Feb 15 with 1545 views | C_Jam_Blue |
| Last 13 games of the season on 12:30 - Feb 15 by iamipswich |
Any reason Charlton is missing on the last day sorry? |
Updated, cheers | | | |
| Last 13 games of the season on 12:38 - Feb 15 with 1498 views | hype313 |
We shouldn't really fear anyone on that list, bar Rotherham, but by the time we play them they will mentally be in Ibiza.
Pivitol games against Wigan, Plymouth, Oxford and Charlton should we take care of the rest. |  |
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| Last 13 games of the season on 12:42 - Feb 15 with 1460 views | HighgateBlue |
Yes I agree with your conclusion. A tough ask with little room for error, but do-able. With our clean sheet record under k-Mac we shouldn't lose too many. I just hope we can scrape together enough goals as we have so far, with our strikers clearly a little off at present.
I do wonder whether there's much statistical data to back up the received wisdom that teams with more to play for at the end of the season do better than their league position suggests. I can believe that it makes some difference but I would rather be playing a Morecambe, Fleetwood or Shrewsbury than a Portsmouth or a promoted Wigan or Rotherham. |  | | |
| Last 13 games of the season on 12:57 - Feb 15 with 1407 views | jayessess |
| Last 13 games of the season on 12:42 - Feb 15 by HighgateBlue |
Yes I agree with your conclusion. A tough ask with little room for error, but do-able. With our clean sheet record under k-Mac we shouldn't lose too many. I just hope we can scrape together enough goals as we have so far, with our strikers clearly a little off at present.
I do wonder whether there's much statistical data to back up the received wisdom that teams with more to play for at the end of the season do better than their league position suggests. I can believe that it makes some difference but I would rather be playing a Morecambe, Fleetwood or Shrewsbury than a Portsmouth or a promoted Wigan or Rotherham. |
I checked this out last year, statistically there's a slight uptick amongst bottom 6 sides, but it amounts to about 0.1-0.2 points per game, so no more than 1 extra point in their last 5 games compared to previous form.
In a league where 9 places out of 24 carry some sort of significance the number of teams with nothing to play for is always going to be pretty small. On April 1st last season everyone down to 13th was within 6 points of the play-offs and everyone up to 18th was within 6 points of relegation. So, 4 teams had nothing much to play for. |  |
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| Last 13 games of the season on 13:09 - Feb 15 with 1332 views | C_Jam_Blue |
| Last 13 games of the season on 12:57 - Feb 15 by jayessess |
I checked this out last year, statistically there's a slight uptick amongst bottom 6 sides, but it amounts to about 0.1-0.2 points per game, so no more than 1 extra point in their last 5 games compared to previous form.
In a league where 9 places out of 24 carry some sort of significance the number of teams with nothing to play for is always going to be pretty small. On April 1st last season everyone down to 13th was within 6 points of the play-offs and everyone up to 18th was within 6 points of relegation. So, 4 teams had nothing much to play for. |
Good stats, interesting how many teams were still in the mix by April.. I wonder if the league will tighten up in the same way this season | | | |
| Last 13 games of the season on 13:20 - Feb 15 with 1275 views | ArnieM |
I think the fact a lot of our games are at home might prove problematic .
1) teams will park the bus
2) we’re not scoring freely - an early goal changes all that . Whose going to be the striker that does it |  |
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| Last 13 games of the season on 13:50 - Feb 15 with 1172 views | ElderGrizzly |
| Last 13 games of the season on 13:20 - Feb 15 by ArnieM |
I think the fact a lot of our games are at home might prove problematic .
1) teams will park the bus
2) we’re not scoring freely - an early goal changes all that . Whose going to be the striker that does it |
We're not scoring freely, but we also aren't really conceding many.
McKenna has a 100% record at home too doesn't he? 3 wins? |  | | |
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| Last 13 games of the season on 13:57 - Feb 15 with 1119 views | HighgateBlue |
| Last 13 games of the season on 12:57 - Feb 15 by jayessess |
I checked this out last year, statistically there's a slight uptick amongst bottom 6 sides, but it amounts to about 0.1-0.2 points per game, so no more than 1 extra point in their last 5 games compared to previous form.
In a league where 9 places out of 24 carry some sort of significance the number of teams with nothing to play for is always going to be pretty small. On April 1st last season everyone down to 13th was within 6 points of the play-offs and everyone up to 18th was within 6 points of relegation. So, 4 teams had nothing much to play for. |
Interesting. That's the sort of thing that I would have expected. These things are valid, get noticed, but then assume a bit more significance than is perhaps warranted.
A bit like the 'new manager bounce', which of course is sometimes very real (in our case, hopefully!) but in many cases is just an example of reversion to the mean, where a boss has been fired after a particularly extreme run of bad results.
Valid thing for the OP to have raised, of course, and hopefully we will be one of those teams who have something to play for come March and April... | | | |
| Last 13 games of the season on 13:58 - Feb 15 with 1101 views | HighgateBlue |
| Last 13 games of the season on 13:50 - Feb 15 by ElderGrizzly |
We're not scoring freely, but we also aren't really conceding many.
McKenna has a 100% record at home too doesn't he? 3 wins? |
Yeah, we have a better record this season at home than away, as you'd expect, and that's all the more so under McKenna. We may have some worries, including where the goals are coming from, but I don't think that having games at home is one of them. | | | |
| Last 13 games of the season on 15:58 - Feb 15 with 901 views | ArnieM |
| Last 13 games of the season on 13:50 - Feb 15 by ElderGrizzly |
We're not scoring freely, but we also aren't really conceding many.
McKenna has a 100% record at home too doesn't he? 3 wins? |
Agree. But draws won’t be enough , so we HAVE to win… all three would be brilliant but it ain’t going to be easy and that would patience is there again isn’t it …. | |
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