| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight 23:34 - Feb 28 with 6703 views | unstableblue |
In short what does Europe and the West do when the full scale Russian artillery circles and closes fully on the major cities by Weds, and potentially starts shelling with hundreds of civilian deaths if not more? And it gets set in?
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| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 16:07 - Mar 1 with 896 views | chicoazul |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 14:14 - Mar 1 by jeera |
Russia clearly don't fancy themselves against NATO in a full scale land, sea and air war, hence the threats of nuclear weapons. |
There seems to be very little doubt the last thing the US want is war with Russia or China. Everything else is fair game. |  |
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| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 16:27 - Mar 1 with 841 views | gordon |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 16:04 - Mar 1 by chicoazul |
Are you seriously suggesting that being against global thermonuclear war is the same thing as being pro-Putin. |
Not as such (!), just that I'm not sure I agree with the assumption that inaction makes further escalation less likely - I don't think there's much precedent in history for that position. |  | | |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 16:38 - Mar 1 with 818 views | RadioOrwell |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 16:07 - Mar 1 by chicoazul |
There seems to be very little doubt the last thing the US want is war with Russia or China. Everything else is fair game. |
The real worry is if Russia have 'gamed' a war with and without nuclear weapons and are still up for it. |  | | |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 17:29 - Mar 1 with 749 views | DinDjarin |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 09:24 - Mar 1 by Guthrum |
Think it's going to take a lot longer than 'by Wednesday' for that 40-mile traffic jam to sort itself out and deploy. Especially if the Ukrainians can target it with their remaining air assets or get forces onto its flanks. High likelihood of utter chaos.
After all, the main reason Market Garden in WWII (the Arnhem offensive) failed was because of the attempt to advance down a single road. Also the Battle of Suomussalmi in the Winter War, when Finnish troops repeatedly cut the roads being used by the Soviets. Failure to interdict the remaining road into Verdun was key to German failure there. |
Market Garden failed because 30 Corps decided to park up and have some cups of tea. Basically a lack of urgency on their part as they met minimal resistance and the 82nd Airborne took the brunt of the fighting. |  | | |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 17:34 - Mar 1 with 743 views | PrrrromotionGiven |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 16:38 - Mar 1 by RadioOrwell |
The real worry is if Russia have 'gamed' a war with and without nuclear weapons and are still up for it. |
Think their experiences in the last 5 days ought to justify a revision of any wildly optimistic wargaming results for them. |  | | |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 17:34 - Mar 1 with 742 views | chicoazul |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 16:27 - Mar 1 by gordon |
Not as such (!), just that I'm not sure I agree with the assumption that inaction makes further escalation less likely - I don't think there's much precedent in history for that position. |
Shooting down a Russian jet would be WW3. That seems to me to be beyond dispute. Eisenhower took the position in the 50s that the USSR should be avoided, settled with where possible, and slowly bankrupted, which worked in so far as it avoided all out conflict. We need a similar patient strategy that avoids war the way we did back then, now. | |
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| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 18:21 - Mar 1 with 696 views | OldFart71 |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 14:14 - Mar 1 by jeera |
Russia clearly don't fancy themselves against NATO in a full scale land, sea and air war, hence the threats of nuclear weapons. |
I must say, the one thing that truly surprises me is the quietness of the Americans. Do they not have the stomach for a fight. Them leaving Afghanistan in the lurch probably gave a message to Russia as did the bombing of civilians in Syria where nothing was done. Yes, the sanctions have been brutal but it may be months before they affect Russia and especially the rich. Meanwhile hundreds maybe thousand of Ukrainians will die and thousands displace. What will Putin achieve ? Cities that are destroyed, peoples of the Ukraine with nothing but hatred against those that speak the same or a similar language and ending up the pariah of the World. Well, if that's your legacy Mr. Putin you have failed very, very badly. | | | |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 18:24 - Mar 1 with 693 views | solomon |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 16:07 - Mar 1 by chicoazul |
There seems to be very little doubt the last thing the US want is war with Russia or China. Everything else is fair game. |
We have been far too accustomed to conflicts with opposition who are not our equal measures, we are a generation that witnessed the gulf war and the war in Iraq in 2003, by no means a walk in the park (same could be said of the falklands conflict) but totally unlike going to war with another highly trained and equipped super power. Any war with Russia and it’s allies would be devastating for civilians on many continents, our towns an cities would be subjected to the same missile attacks we see in Ukraine now. |  | | |
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| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 09:50 - Mar 2 with 575 views | TractorWood |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 14:14 - Mar 1 by jeera |
Russia clearly don't fancy themselves against NATO in a full scale land, sea and air war, hence the threats of nuclear weapons. |
Exactly. Vlad made that clear from the start. He basically said he's mental and has loads of nukes so keep your nose out of the actual conflict.
The West have escalated the sanctions and punitive action well in the last 4/5 days. I guess the only question left is how long one man's delusion lasts without an uprising. Russian people will be seeing one thing on state TV and people queuing at ATM machines. |  |
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| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 10:55 - Mar 2 with 555 views | gordon |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 17:34 - Mar 1 by chicoazul |
Shooting down a Russian jet would be WW3. That seems to me to be beyond dispute. Eisenhower took the position in the 50s that the USSR should be avoided, settled with where possible, and slowly bankrupted, which worked in so far as it avoided all out conflict. We need a similar patient strategy that avoids war the way we did back then, now. |
I'm no historian whatsoever, but Krushchev wasn't a mad, genocidal lunatic was he? (genuinely interested to be corrected / informed by those more knowledgeable) | | | |
| And when I hear this… maybe we should go in?? on 11:14 - Mar 2 with 542 views | Radlett_blue |
| And when I hear this… maybe we should go in?? on 13:12 - Mar 1 by gordon |
Yes - we have a legal and moral obligation to defend The Ukraine against what is likely to be considered a genocide, and we're not doing so because we're scared of a mad dictator holding us to ransom with nuclear weapons.
Will that be emboldening Putin, or making him less likely to use force in future, is the question people should be asking. |
It's a valid question, but Western Europe is not willing to play a high stakes game of poker with Putin & also unwilling so send in troops, partly because the West doesn't have the stomach for the inevitable loss of life & partly because they are rightly fearful of escalating this into a larger war, We don't even seem to be willing to use the usual cheap shot of air strikes, presumably because we don't want to provoke the giant angry bear. The scary question is what might happen if Putin actually attacks a NATO member, which I hope he would be reluctant to do. |  |
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| And when I hear this… maybe we should go in?? on 15:30 - Mar 2 with 506 views | Churchman |
| And when I hear this… maybe we should go in?? on 11:14 - Mar 2 by Radlett_blue |
It's a valid question, but Western Europe is not willing to play a high stakes game of poker with Putin & also unwilling so send in troops, partly because the West doesn't have the stomach for the inevitable loss of life & partly because they are rightly fearful of escalating this into a larger war, We don't even seem to be willing to use the usual cheap shot of air strikes, presumably because we don't want to provoke the giant angry bear. The scary question is what might happen if Putin actually attacks a NATO member, which I hope he would be reluctant to do. |
You don’t have to use air strikes. If NATO gave notice of a no fly zone at 6pm today because an independent sovereign country’s leader (Ukraine) had requested it, what exactly could Putin do?
It wouldn’t be the first time NATO has done this in a non-NATO conflict (e.g. Balkans). I doubt Putin would want the humiliation of seeing his airforce wiped out, so I doubt he’d contest it. His only option would be more accusation, rage and threat.
The west is scared of the outcome so it won’t happen. The U.K. and US guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty in return for giving up nuclear weapons 30 odd years ago. I just think there is an obligation to do a little more and at some point, Putin is going to have to be faced down anyway. In that I agree with the Ukrainians. |  | | |
| And when I hear this… maybe we should go in?? on 15:44 - Mar 2 with 492 views | EdwardStone |
| And when I hear this… maybe we should go in?? on 15:30 - Mar 2 by Churchman |
You don’t have to use air strikes. If NATO gave notice of a no fly zone at 6pm today because an independent sovereign country’s leader (Ukraine) had requested it, what exactly could Putin do?
It wouldn’t be the first time NATO has done this in a non-NATO conflict (e.g. Balkans). I doubt Putin would want the humiliation of seeing his airforce wiped out, so I doubt he’d contest it. His only option would be more accusation, rage and threat.
The west is scared of the outcome so it won’t happen. The U.K. and US guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty in return for giving up nuclear weapons 30 odd years ago. I just think there is an obligation to do a little more and at some point, Putin is going to have to be faced down anyway. In that I agree with the Ukrainians. |
My understanding is that the Nukes previously in Ukraine were under the command and control of Moscow.... they were never Ukrainian nukes in the meaning of the word, they were simply stationed there
So when Ukraine became independent, they were simply sent back to their owners in Moscow |  | | |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 17:21 - Mar 2 with 447 views | chicoazul |
| Hmmmmm…. Didn’t like that analysis on Newsnight on 10:55 - Mar 2 by gordon |
I'm no historian whatsoever, but Krushchev wasn't a mad, genocidal lunatic was he? (genuinely interested to be corrected / informed by those more knowledgeable) |
How else do you think you became Secretary of the Party in the 50s? The USSR certainly was genocidal as anyone googling the Holmodor knows. | |
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