| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table 00:31 - Mar 6 with 3097 views | Guthrum |
As per usual, based on recent form. Still got a bit of ground to make up.
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 03:05 - Mar 6 with 2498 views | Illinoisblue |
Now do it again but make it look better |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 08:54 - Mar 6 with 2268 views | Ftnfwest |
Gillingham surviving on just 42 points also shows the divide between top and bottom this season meaning unfortunately a higher number of points required for playoffs. That’s based on current form though so you never know. |  | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 09:58 - Mar 6 with 2148 views | Keno |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 03:05 - Mar 6 by Illinoisblue |
Now do it again but make it look better |
and, for anyone who was taught by Mr Gosling at Northgate, you must show your workings in full. You'll get more marks for showing how you get the answer than for the answer itself |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:06 - Mar 6 with 2129 views | Guthrum |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 09:58 - Mar 6 by Keno |
and, for anyone who was taught by Mr Gosling at Northgate, you must show your workings in full. You'll get more marks for showing how you get the answer than for the answer itself |
I didn't go to Northgate, but my father did. | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 11:04 - Mar 6 with 2042 views | Keno |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 10:06 - Mar 6 by Guthrum |
I didn't go to Northgate, but my father did. |
Mr Gosling was so old be probably taught your dad and granddad come to that!!
Not saying was old but factors was a couple years behind him at uni | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:15 - Mar 6 with 1955 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Did we beat Oxford? |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:41 - Mar 6 with 1920 views | tractorshark |
If Ipswich get 77 points we’ll be in the playoffs.
If you exclude the 2019-20 season which was cut short, the highest number of points achieved by the team finishing sixth in League One over a 10-year period is 74. And that’s only happened twice in that time. The average is probably around 72.
If you go back further, I think Huddersfield achieved 6th place with 80 but that is very much a freak season and the division has changed over the past decade. It’s considerably tighter now.
Of course this could be a freak season and it looks like it will be higher than 74. But higher than 77? I don’t think so.
Form and league position are a guide but we all know teams scrapping for survival will raise their game. And mid-table teams will sometimes relax and inexplicably take points off nervy promotion contenders.
The biggest problem is I don’t see Ipswich getting 77 points. |  | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:43 - Mar 6 with 1911 views | eireblue |
You’re just playing with us now. |  | | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:08 - Mar 6 with 1855 views | Matt_Netherlands |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:41 - Mar 6 by tractorshark |
If Ipswich get 77 points we’ll be in the playoffs.
If you exclude the 2019-20 season which was cut short, the highest number of points achieved by the team finishing sixth in League One over a 10-year period is 74. And that’s only happened twice in that time. The average is probably around 72.
If you go back further, I think Huddersfield achieved 6th place with 80 but that is very much a freak season and the division has changed over the past decade. It’s considerably tighter now.
Of course this could be a freak season and it looks like it will be higher than 74. But higher than 77? I don’t think so.
Form and league position are a guide but we all know teams scrapping for survival will raise their game. And mid-table teams will sometimes relax and inexplicably take points off nervy promotion contenders.
The biggest problem is I don’t see Ipswich getting 77 points. |
Would add to this that a team finishing 3rd and having 92 points would be pretty heard of too!
Don’t think any third place team in the last 10 years has had more than 90. |  | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:10 - Mar 6 with 1852 views | Bluecasp |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:43 - Mar 6 by eireblue |
You’re just playing with us now. |
Plymouth have a particularly tough set of remaining fixtures so I think they could fall away. | | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:12 - Mar 6 with 1842 views | LankHenners |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:41 - Mar 6 by tractorshark |
If Ipswich get 77 points we’ll be in the playoffs.
If you exclude the 2019-20 season which was cut short, the highest number of points achieved by the team finishing sixth in League One over a 10-year period is 74. And that’s only happened twice in that time. The average is probably around 72.
If you go back further, I think Huddersfield achieved 6th place with 80 but that is very much a freak season and the division has changed over the past decade. It’s considerably tighter now.
Of course this could be a freak season and it looks like it will be higher than 74. But higher than 77? I don’t think so.
Form and league position are a guide but we all know teams scrapping for survival will raise their game. And mid-table teams will sometimes relax and inexplicably take points off nervy promotion contenders.
The biggest problem is I don’t see Ipswich getting 77 points. |
Think we need to stop clinging onto historical points totals at this point as it's clear, barring a major collapse from at least 2 of Sunderland, Wycombe, Wednesday, Plymouth, that it'll be high 70s for 6th, 77 probably the minimum.
Might be a bit of a breakaway between 4th and 5th as Plymouth in particular have a lot of the teams around them less to play and not everyone can keep winning games as they have been doing.
We'll probably hit between 74-78 which isn't a guarantee of anything right now. |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:22 - Mar 6 with 1810 views | C_Jam_Blue |
81 pts seems very high for 6th but it does feel particularly competitive this year. Next weekend could be quite a vital one. We play Portsmouth, Bolton play Plymouth, MK Dons play Wigan, Wycombe play Rotherham. Interesting to see where we all stand after that. Despite those draws last week we are still one of the form teams. Only Portsmouth with 12 pts from the last 5 games have picked up more points. | | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:39 - Mar 6 with 1774 views | tractorshark |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:12 - Mar 6 by LankHenners |
Think we need to stop clinging onto historical points totals at this point as it's clear, barring a major collapse from at least 2 of Sunderland, Wycombe, Wednesday, Plymouth, that it'll be high 70s for 6th, 77 probably the minimum.
Might be a bit of a breakaway between 4th and 5th as Plymouth in particular have a lot of the teams around them less to play and not everyone can keep winning games as they have been doing.
We'll probably hit between 74-78 which isn't a guarantee of anything right now. |
I don’t disagree the 6th placed points total will be higher than in recent years, I’m just not convinced it will be that high.
It’s an interesting table and a good talking point but you have to remember the OP’s calculation only has Oxford and Plymouth drawing one more game each and Sheff Wed drawing none of their last 11 games. That’s why the predicted points totals are higher.
I doubt anyone would have predicted Lincoln beating Sheff Wed yesterday so it is very difficult thing to call. | | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 16:58 - Mar 6 with 1651 views | billlm |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:41 - Mar 6 by tractorshark |
If Ipswich get 77 points we’ll be in the playoffs.
If you exclude the 2019-20 season which was cut short, the highest number of points achieved by the team finishing sixth in League One over a 10-year period is 74. And that’s only happened twice in that time. The average is probably around 72.
If you go back further, I think Huddersfield achieved 6th place with 80 but that is very much a freak season and the division has changed over the past decade. It’s considerably tighter now.
Of course this could be a freak season and it looks like it will be higher than 74. But higher than 77? I don’t think so.
Form and league position are a guide but we all know teams scrapping for survival will raise their game. And mid-table teams will sometimes relax and inexplicably take points off nervy promotion contenders.
The biggest problem is I don’t see Ipswich getting 77 points. |
I think 6th place will have 78, we will fall short, but a great effort from where we were, were point and games behind, were asking for 2-3 above to trip highly doubtful after three quarters of a season, and Bolton and Portsmouth to stop there incredible runs, I doubt any of us three will get there, the 45678 who have been there all season will sort it out amongst themselves for 456, |  | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 17:05 - Mar 6 with 1627 views | positivity |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 12:41 - Mar 6 by tractorshark |
If Ipswich get 77 points we’ll be in the playoffs.
If you exclude the 2019-20 season which was cut short, the highest number of points achieved by the team finishing sixth in League One over a 10-year period is 74. And that’s only happened twice in that time. The average is probably around 72.
If you go back further, I think Huddersfield achieved 6th place with 80 but that is very much a freak season and the division has changed over the past decade. It’s considerably tighter now.
Of course this could be a freak season and it looks like it will be higher than 74. But higher than 77? I don’t think so.
Form and league position are a guide but we all know teams scrapping for survival will raise their game. And mid-table teams will sometimes relax and inexplicably take points off nervy promotion contenders.
The biggest problem is I don’t see Ipswich getting 77 points. |
not sure you're right. have the top 6 ever had this many points at this stage of the season? | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 17:06 - Mar 6 with 1624 views | tractorshark |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 16:58 - Mar 6 by billlm |
I think 6th place will have 78, we will fall short, but a great effort from where we were, were point and games behind, were asking for 2-3 above to trip highly doubtful after three quarters of a season, and Bolton and Portsmouth to stop there incredible runs, I doubt any of us three will get there, the 45678 who have been there all season will sort it out amongst themselves for 456, |
I think that’s fair comment and I would agree with pretty much all of it give or take a point or two. | | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 17:09 - Mar 6 with 1606 views | Metal_Hacker |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 09:58 - Mar 6 by Keno |
and, for anyone who was taught by Mr Gosling at Northgate, you must show your workings in full. You'll get more marks for showing how you get the answer than for the answer itself |
I actually went to Northgate early 80’s but can’t remember my maths teacher’s name but she was bozz eyed and quite cruelly we call her Mrs Eyesier |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 18:37 - Mar 6 with 1493 views | billlm |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 17:06 - Mar 6 by tractorshark |
I think that’s fair comment and I would agree with pretty much all of it give or take a point or two. |
Very good, lol | | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 19:50 - Mar 6 with 1432 views | stonojnr |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 13:12 - Mar 6 by LankHenners |
Think we need to stop clinging onto historical points totals at this point as it's clear, barring a major collapse from at least 2 of Sunderland, Wycombe, Wednesday, Plymouth, that it'll be high 70s for 6th, 77 probably the minimum.
Might be a bit of a breakaway between 4th and 5th as Plymouth in particular have a lot of the teams around them less to play and not everyone can keep winning games as they have been doing.
We'll probably hit between 74-78 which isn't a guarantee of anything right now. |
its not clinging to historical points totals, its about stats analysis and the reason why everyone knows 40pts is the magic points tally to aim for to stay up in the Premier league, and its 50pts in the Championship, the maths always work out because its just how the universe works.
between the 1995-96 season and 2016-17 season the average 6th place point total was 74.5pts in league one.
2017-18, Charlton Athletic 71pts
2018-19, Doncaster Rovers 73pts
2019-20, Fleetwood Town 60pts (but a shortened season, on ppg it would be 78pts)
2020-21, Oxford Utd 74pts
so the average for the past 27 seasons hasnt really shifted, its still roughly around 74pts minimum, so get more than 74 points and you should be in the playoffs come season end.
now fair enough this might be an exceptional season and an outlier, Sheff Utd once finished 3rd on 90pts, which in most years would have been 2nd spot, if not champions, so maybe even 77pts wont be enough.
but the reason why you dont use form as the way to work this out, is form is not a constant, if youd taken Towns position at the halfway point of the season as the guide under Paul Cook , Town would be tracking towards 58pts...we currently have 56pts with 10 games left. | | | |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 19:53 - Mar 6 with 1417 views | Mullet |
How do you keep getting these wrong old fruit? |  |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 20:01 - Mar 6 with 1393 views | Keno |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 17:09 - Mar 6 by Metal_Hacker |
I actually went to Northgate early 80’s but can’t remember my maths teacher’s name but she was bozz eyed and quite cruelly we call her Mrs Eyesier |
Mrs Cameron? | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 21:15 - Mar 6 with 1321 views | tractorshark |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 17:05 - Mar 6 by positivity |
not sure you're right. have the top 6 ever had this many points at this stage of the season? |
Swindon had 63pts after 36 games in 2013. Finished in sixth place with 74pts.
This season will probably be higher than that but if 6th place does get around the 80pts mark, I would be surprised. If it does happen, I can’t see any of the chasing pack being close to them. [Post edited 6 Mar 2022 21:31]
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 21:28 - Mar 6 with 1284 views | LankHenners |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 19:50 - Mar 6 by stonojnr |
its not clinging to historical points totals, its about stats analysis and the reason why everyone knows 40pts is the magic points tally to aim for to stay up in the Premier league, and its 50pts in the Championship, the maths always work out because its just how the universe works.
between the 1995-96 season and 2016-17 season the average 6th place point total was 74.5pts in league one.
2017-18, Charlton Athletic 71pts
2018-19, Doncaster Rovers 73pts
2019-20, Fleetwood Town 60pts (but a shortened season, on ppg it would be 78pts)
2020-21, Oxford Utd 74pts
so the average for the past 27 seasons hasnt really shifted, its still roughly around 74pts minimum, so get more than 74 points and you should be in the playoffs come season end.
now fair enough this might be an exceptional season and an outlier, Sheff Utd once finished 3rd on 90pts, which in most years would have been 2nd spot, if not champions, so maybe even 77pts wont be enough.
but the reason why you dont use form as the way to work this out, is form is not a constant, if youd taken Towns position at the halfway point of the season as the guide under Paul Cook , Town would be tracking towards 58pts...we currently have 56pts with 10 games left. |
I think you misunderstand me, and that's a long winded and slightly patronising way of saying 'well if you look at historical points totals...'. I understand the maths and right now the maths is saying 77 points would have us on the edge of the playoffs, maybe just in, maybe just out.
I'd be very very surprised if 75 points is enough this year, would require a serious drop-off from the teams immediately above us. | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 21:40 - Mar 6 with 1240 views | Metal_Hacker |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 20:01 - Mar 6 by Keno |
Mrs Cameron? |
You know what Keno it could have been. Some 40 years later the grey matter seems to recognise that name | |
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| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 21:41 - Mar 6 with 1234 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| Guthrum's Estimated Final Table on 21:28 - Mar 6 by LankHenners |
I think you misunderstand me, and that's a long winded and slightly patronising way of saying 'well if you look at historical points totals...'. I understand the maths and right now the maths is saying 77 points would have us on the edge of the playoffs, maybe just in, maybe just out.
I'd be very very surprised if 75 points is enough this year, would require a serious drop-off from the teams immediately above us. |
I think that as the end of the season draws near teams do tend to drop off. Form is never consistent throughout the season. One or two of those in 4-8th may well improve. Most will drop off. Several factors will play into this.
1 Several of those teams will have 3 matches a week more often than not and don't have big squads to cope with it. Some have probably managed so far without using very many players at all.
2 Pressure is a funny thing that affects some teams negatively. As mid-table sides play and are safe, they might play in a more relaxed style that often throws in surprise results. Others near the bottom might be there having missed a player who returns and they have an entrenched fighting spirit or a new manager who gets them playing more effectively.
In short, I very much doubt that all of Plymouth, Wycombe, Oxford, Sheffield Wednesday and Portsmouth will continue on their present form. Of course, if half of them do then it will be a tall order for us. However, if 2/3rds don't 6th place could easily be up for grabs.
We just need to keep getting results. I think 76 points will be enough. Fewer might be. We will see. |  |
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