| Standing of remaining opponents on 11:01 - Mar 9 with 784 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
So, in fact, Plymouth might be more catchable than first glances at the regular table suggest.
Thanks for this: a great bit of analysis.
You do know that you are under a moral obligation to keep updating this after each game, don't you? ;-) |  | |  |
| Standing of remaining opponents on 11:01 - Mar 9 with 778 views | bluefunk |
If you could just combine that with the other recent form table, that would be goodðŸ˜
On a more serious note, that looks 9 games between teams in the current top 6, which cuts the potential points available to those teams - something which can’t be reflected in the current form table projections |  | | |
| Standing of remaining opponents on 11:02 - Mar 9 with 774 views | JakeITFC |
A nice balance for us of easier games and chances to beat teams around us (maybe a generous reading!). |  | | |
| Standing of remaining opponents on 11:08 - Mar 9 with 716 views | clive_baker |
I was looking at Sheff Weds fixtures last night, they've got a nice little run in over the next month or so, I would be pretty happy if I were an Owls fan looking at that. 4 of their next 5 are at home (Cambridge, Accrington, Cheltenham, Wimbledon) and the away game is at Gillingham. They really should be taking 12 points. We're not just looking at 6th though, I make it 7 teams for 3 spots. I've said it before, I really think we can get above Oxford, especially as we play them soon. It's not unthinkable that a win at their place a week on Saturday could bring us level with them.
Focussing on what we need to do, I think we need 3 wins from the next 4. That would set up a big final 5 of the season and certainly give us a good shot. This really is the business end of the season isn't it. Roll on Saturday, absolutely massive game. |  |
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| Standing of remaining opponents on 11:21 - Mar 9 with 649 views | TractorCam |
Real shame we couldn't beat at least one of Cheltenham or Morecambe, but then again beating the teams around us could be more crucial than the others.
Definitely need to beat Pompey with them having two games on us. |  |
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| Standing of remaining opponents on 11:34 - Mar 9 with 610 views | Guthrum |
| Standing of remaining opponents on 11:01 - Mar 9 by ArnoldMoorhen |
So, in fact, Plymouth might be more catchable than first glances at the regular table suggest.
Thanks for this: a great bit of analysis.
You do know that you are under a moral obligation to keep updating this after each game, don't you? ;-) |
I've spent years battling with a sensible way of doing that. Including effectively giving a modified dice-roll chance of who beats who. Never got it to work satisfactorily.
It's very difficult to construct anything reliable, given the number of factors involved and the frequency of unexpected results (like Rotherham losing at Fleetwood). Not to mention the unforseeable impact of injuries, suspensions, managerial changes and the like. |  |
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| Standing of remaining opponents on 11:41 - Mar 9 with 591 views | JakeITFC |
| Standing of remaining opponents on 11:34 - Mar 9 by Guthrum |
I've spent years battling with a sensible way of doing that. Including effectively giving a modified dice-roll chance of who beats who. Never got it to work satisfactorily.
It's very difficult to construct anything reliable, given the number of factors involved and the frequency of unexpected results (like Rotherham losing at Fleetwood). Not to mention the unforseeable impact of injuries, suspensions, managerial changes and the like. |
I think probably better to think of it as an optimisation of a group of games or a season as a whole, rather than on a game by game basis.
Expected goals per game (for and against) is probably the best method for doing this, and there is a long-term proven relationship between goals and points (I know sporting intelligence on twitter have done some work in the past that shows each Premier League goal is worth almost exactly 1 point). | | | |
| Standing of remaining opponents on 11:59 - Mar 9 with 535 views | tractorboy1978 |
We need to cross our fingers on the games in hand - that's my only worry. All games being equal right now I'd have us in the play-offs for sure.
Plymouth have two more games than us before we play them on the 26th with a pretty small squad. Hopefully they will be looking leggy by then. | | | |
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| Standing of remaining opponents on 12:04 - Mar 9 with 511 views | hoppy |
| Standing of remaining opponents on 11:59 - Mar 9 by tractorboy1978 |
We need to cross our fingers on the games in hand - that's my only worry. All games being equal right now I'd have us in the play-offs for sure.
Plymouth have two more games than us before we play them on the 26th with a pretty small squad. Hopefully they will be looking leggy by then. |
Kind of like a modern day Legs XI? |  |
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