| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day 08:27 - Mar 18 with 2180 views | Guthrum |
I've changed my mind about the situation in Ukraine after reading some stuff and talking to well-informed people.
The Russian negotiations are largely a sham, with no chance of success if Kyiv doesn't pretty much give in to all of Moscow's demands.
Instead they want to fight a grand encirclement battle in the east of the country, which they think will lead to the destruction of a large part of the Ukrainian army and win the war. Whether that hope may be realistic is another matter, but the terrain is much more open than north of Kyiv, less suited to the ambush tactics which have cost them so heavily.
Meanwhile China is in a bind. They don't want Russia weakened and the West strenghtened too much, as it tilts the power balance against them. They are acutely sensitive to their own options for seizing Taiwan militarily should they feel the need to - while also not encouraging separatist urges within their own territories. But they also strongly do not want to upset the global commercial environment which is the basis of their own prosperity and it's Westerners who have the money to spend, far more than Russia's fairly modest economy. |  |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 08:40 - Mar 18 with 2111 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Hmm - console yourself that worse things have happened in the past and nobody cares over much despite putting yellow and blue flags on their Facebook page.
Try to face up to reality. The UK and NATO countries have actively scaled down their military to the point where it is near impotent in Europe - and been blind to reality whilst embracing Russian cash and laundering that nations resources for the ruling elite - here and in Russia.
We can supply hot air, bluster and lies - and some weapons we can’t afford to replace that we don’t really need at present. Other that it’s best to look at a map. Ukraine is rather close to Russia - as are the Baltic states. All are utterly indefensible from a western fantasy point of view - or indeed a covetous Russian point of view. As in Cuba, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Viêt Nam, iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria etc etc, the population will suffer, leaders will be executed - and we’ll go tut tut. Then the world will move on. |  |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 08:46 - Mar 18 with 2084 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
Mutually assured destruction hasn't panned out so well for those not doing the destroying!!
I share your pessimism...the entire Putin philosophy which was covered in the recent Curtis documentary among a whole heap of other things is smoke, mirrors and unpredictability. |  |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 08:49 - Mar 18 with 2076 views | Churchman |
Russia is not going to accept anything less than complete surrender to whatever terms they really want and Zelenski in front of a show trial. If they have to accept half a loaf, they’ll take the rest later, just as Adolf did in Czechoslovakia in 1938. There’s nothing Putin or elephant’s ballbag face foreign minister bloke says that has any credibility. It just shows their contempt for everyone.
From what I’ve read, while Russia has lost kit and men, proportionate to their strength Ukraine has lost more. The Russians are bleeding Ukraine’s military to death. Wearing it and the people down. It’s probably not how they planned it, but the result is likely to be the same.
Putin is I believe banking on the West’s weakness and lack of resolve. It knows despite the words it has a grip on Germany/Italy and co from an energy perspective and in reality everyone wants this over ASAP and back to normal. That includes Johnson’s shower whose only interest is in money from any source including Russian criminals and Biden whose only really interested in his internal US agenda.
China? Yes, they’re walking a tightrope, economically. If the west did punish Putin long term, it might actually dissuade China from its Taiwan territory grabbing since it relies so heavily on the west to sell its stuff. |  | | |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 08:56 - Mar 18 with 2022 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
Given China still managed to grow their economy by 2pc in 2020 whilst everybody else’s tanked during COVID I’m never that convinced by the reliance on the west argument. Pretty sure they value the spread of their ideology over their finances.
Reckon they are happy to sit back and play both sides while the world burns. | | | |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:13 - Mar 18 with 1957 views | Guthrum |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 08:40 - Mar 18 by ElephantintheRoom |
Hmm - console yourself that worse things have happened in the past and nobody cares over much despite putting yellow and blue flags on their Facebook page.
Try to face up to reality. The UK and NATO countries have actively scaled down their military to the point where it is near impotent in Europe - and been blind to reality whilst embracing Russian cash and laundering that nations resources for the ruling elite - here and in Russia.
We can supply hot air, bluster and lies - and some weapons we can’t afford to replace that we don’t really need at present. Other that it’s best to look at a map. Ukraine is rather close to Russia - as are the Baltic states. All are utterly indefensible from a western fantasy point of view - or indeed a covetous Russian point of view. As in Cuba, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Viêt Nam, iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria etc etc, the population will suffer, leaders will be executed - and we’ll go tut tut. Then the world will move on. |
Bear in mind that the Russian military also unwound in the post-Soviet era, to a far greater extent than the money-saving excercises in Europe. The former has been resurrected to an extent under Putin, but still not exactly covered themselves in glory during this campaign - against Ukrainian forces who have been rebuilding an even shorter time. They've also suffered a fair degree of attrition so far, including from those weapons sent by the West.
As for affordability, the UK's defence budget alone is equal to Russia's (about $60bn), let alone adding in the rest of Europe and the behemoth which is the USA. A few tens of millions worth of antitank missiles (which are getting a good field-testing as well) in neither here nor there.
The Baltics might look extremely vulnerable on a small-scale map, but it's still a large area of exactly the same sort of heavily forested terrain as that north of Kyiv, where the Russians have become so bogged down. Plus it's NATO, so local troops will be reinforced by more than just weapon supplies.
I don't think people have forgotten any of the incidents you list. Particularly the recent ones (within most people's conscious lifetimes*) are talked about frequently.
* To remember the Cuban missile crisis well (being old enough at the time to have understood it), you can't be younger than your mid 70s. Anyone under 50 was at most a toddler when the Vietnam War ended. | |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:18 - Mar 18 with 1937 views | Guthrum |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 08:56 - Mar 18 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Given China still managed to grow their economy by 2pc in 2020 whilst everybody else’s tanked during COVID I’m never that convinced by the reliance on the west argument. Pretty sure they value the spread of their ideology over their finances.
Reckon they are happy to sit back and play both sides while the world burns. |
Part of the reason for that growth was everybody sat WFH (or on furlough) and ordering stuff on the internet. Much like anybody else's the Chinese economy is stuffed if they haven't got people to sell things to. They might have a large population, but the bulk of it isn't well-off enough* to sustain the kind of growth they've been enjoying.
* If it was, wages wouldn't be low enough to produce stuff cheap enough to be attractive to overseas markets. | |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:22 - Mar 18 with 1918 views | giant_stow |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:13 - Mar 18 by Guthrum |
Bear in mind that the Russian military also unwound in the post-Soviet era, to a far greater extent than the money-saving excercises in Europe. The former has been resurrected to an extent under Putin, but still not exactly covered themselves in glory during this campaign - against Ukrainian forces who have been rebuilding an even shorter time. They've also suffered a fair degree of attrition so far, including from those weapons sent by the West.
As for affordability, the UK's defence budget alone is equal to Russia's (about $60bn), let alone adding in the rest of Europe and the behemoth which is the USA. A few tens of millions worth of antitank missiles (which are getting a good field-testing as well) in neither here nor there.
The Baltics might look extremely vulnerable on a small-scale map, but it's still a large area of exactly the same sort of heavily forested terrain as that north of Kyiv, where the Russians have become so bogged down. Plus it's NATO, so local troops will be reinforced by more than just weapon supplies.
I don't think people have forgotten any of the incidents you list. Particularly the recent ones (within most people's conscious lifetimes*) are talked about frequently.
* To remember the Cuban missile crisis well (being old enough at the time to have understood it), you can't be younger than your mid 70s. Anyone under 50 was at most a toddler when the Vietnam War ended. |
I had mr Elephant down as at least 70 something, given his wizened cynical outlook on stuff.
Interesting that our military budget is similar to Russia's - can't help thinking that we get less value for money, maybe because of all the generals sending their kids to expensive private schools on the taxpayers' tab, while they look forward to fat early pensions.
Hey ho, maybe I'm the grumpy one.
Incidentally, there's an article on the encirclement theory you mention above, in today's telegraph, which also compares to what happened in history (the French army and Russians (again near Kiev) in WW2, which were both news to me) |  |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:22 - Mar 18 with 1918 views | IpswichKnight |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:13 - Mar 18 by Guthrum |
Bear in mind that the Russian military also unwound in the post-Soviet era, to a far greater extent than the money-saving excercises in Europe. The former has been resurrected to an extent under Putin, but still not exactly covered themselves in glory during this campaign - against Ukrainian forces who have been rebuilding an even shorter time. They've also suffered a fair degree of attrition so far, including from those weapons sent by the West.
As for affordability, the UK's defence budget alone is equal to Russia's (about $60bn), let alone adding in the rest of Europe and the behemoth which is the USA. A few tens of millions worth of antitank missiles (which are getting a good field-testing as well) in neither here nor there.
The Baltics might look extremely vulnerable on a small-scale map, but it's still a large area of exactly the same sort of heavily forested terrain as that north of Kyiv, where the Russians have become so bogged down. Plus it's NATO, so local troops will be reinforced by more than just weapon supplies.
I don't think people have forgotten any of the incidents you list. Particularly the recent ones (within most people's conscious lifetimes*) are talked about frequently.
* To remember the Cuban missile crisis well (being old enough at the time to have understood it), you can't be younger than your mid 70s. Anyone under 50 was at most a toddler when the Vietnam War ended. |
To quote someone very high up in intelligence it has been probably one of the single biggest intelligence failures in history and probably as the higher up it went the less likely the intelligence gathered was not welcome or what they wanted to hear so it got ignored.
It is sadly likely the Russian army will go back to basics and re-enact Grozny and Aleppo tactics.
If you look on Twitter there is a great thread by a former Finnish Defence minister or something that goes through what the Finns plans are. | | | |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:33 - Mar 18 with 1872 views | Guthrum |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:22 - Mar 18 by giant_stow |
I had mr Elephant down as at least 70 something, given his wizened cynical outlook on stuff.
Interesting that our military budget is similar to Russia's - can't help thinking that we get less value for money, maybe because of all the generals sending their kids to expensive private schools on the taxpayers' tab, while they look forward to fat early pensions.
Hey ho, maybe I'm the grumpy one.
Incidentally, there's an article on the encirclement theory you mention above, in today's telegraph, which also compares to what happened in history (the French army and Russians (again near Kiev) in WW2, which were both news to me) |
We tend to spend our budget on high-tech kit (some of which actually works and is useful), rather than sheer numbers. Pretty sure Russian generals send their kids to the same expensive schools!
Saw that in the Telegraph, but also had a conversation with someone about the same subject a week ago. | |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:39 - Mar 18 with 1844 views | Churchman |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:22 - Mar 18 by IpswichKnight |
To quote someone very high up in intelligence it has been probably one of the single biggest intelligence failures in history and probably as the higher up it went the less likely the intelligence gathered was not welcome or what they wanted to hear so it got ignored.
It is sadly likely the Russian army will go back to basics and re-enact Grozny and Aleppo tactics.
If you look on Twitter there is a great thread by a former Finnish Defence minister or something that goes through what the Finns plans are. |
It’s a big weakness in totalitarian regimes that people only tell the boss what he wants to hear and he only hears what he wants to. In addition, these regimes often work on a divide and rule basis where nobody has too much power bar the main man. Nazi Germany and Stalin’s Russia are classic examples of that.
I can’t see Putin’s regime being a lot different given the bloke’s behaviour in the past 20 years.
I still think that Russia will wear down Ukraine and they will surrender. I thought Ukraine would collapse in three days. They’ve been amazingly resilient. Amazing people. As for Russia, they’ll have learned a lot from this. I just hope we do too, but I’m not holding my breath on that. [Post edited 18 Mar 2022 11:33]
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:41 - Mar 18 with 1839 views | giant_stow |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:33 - Mar 18 by Guthrum |
We tend to spend our budget on high-tech kit (some of which actually works and is useful), rather than sheer numbers. Pretty sure Russian generals send their kids to the same expensive schools!
Saw that in the Telegraph, but also had a conversation with someone about the same subject a week ago. |
In the interim, I did a google on what we spend on private schooling for the military and its relative peanuts tbf, from what I could see, so back in my box.*
I'd love to know how you managed to be so well informed on so many things mr - deep state contacts i reckon, you dark horse you!
*Full disclosure: Mrs Ullaa's mum lives down the road from a military family with XX* kids all at private school, so this is a regular topic of conversation on visits there (those bastads!!!!)
*the number of kids might have made them identifiable, but its lots and lots. [Post edited 18 Mar 2022 9:44]
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:56 - Mar 18 with 1756 views | Guthrum |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:39 - Mar 18 by Churchman |
It’s a big weakness in totalitarian regimes that people only tell the boss what he wants to hear and he only hears what he wants to. In addition, these regimes often work on a divide and rule basis where nobody has too much power bar the main man. Nazi Germany and Stalin’s Russia are classic examples of that.
I can’t see Putin’s regime being a lot different given the bloke’s behaviour in the past 20 years.
I still think that Russia will wear down Ukraine and they will surrender. I thought Ukraine would collapse in three days. They’ve been amazingly resilient. Amazing people. As for Russia, they’ll have learned a lot from this. I just hope we do too, but I’m not holding my breath on that. [Post edited 18 Mar 2022 11:33]
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Russia may have learnt a lot, but can they put that into practice and how long will the reorganisation take? Not to mention replacing all the kit which has been destroyed or used up and the trained personnel killed or incapacitated.
Has Putin got another five years? Russian life expectancy is significantly lower than in the West and the end of his political effectiveness (even if remaining as a figurehead) will be sooner than that. Unlike the Soviet era, when there was an ideological system to ensure continuity between leaders, the succession battle will merely be about who gets to sit on the throne. There will also be no compulsion to maintain policy lines, including those of expansionism and of implacable hostility to the West. | |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 10:01 - Mar 18 with 1746 views | Guthrum |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:41 - Mar 18 by giant_stow |
In the interim, I did a google on what we spend on private schooling for the military and its relative peanuts tbf, from what I could see, so back in my box.*
I'd love to know how you managed to be so well informed on so many things mr - deep state contacts i reckon, you dark horse you!
*Full disclosure: Mrs Ullaa's mum lives down the road from a military family with XX* kids all at private school, so this is a regular topic of conversation on visits there (those bastads!!!!)
*the number of kids might have made them identifiable, but its lots and lots. [Post edited 18 Mar 2022 9:44]
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There is a suggestion that one of the reasons the Russians have done worse than expected is because funds which should have been spent on shiny new military kit were instead spent on shiny new yachts and holiday homes.
I'm just an humble painter and decorator, me. But I do read a lot. | |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 10:06 - Mar 18 with 1731 views | giant_stow |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 10:01 - Mar 18 by Guthrum |
There is a suggestion that one of the reasons the Russians have done worse than expected is because funds which should have been spent on shiny new military kit were instead spent on shiny new yachts and holiday homes.
I'm just an humble painter and decorator, me. But I do read a lot. |
Hmm that would add up - intriguing.
And good cover story - I await your memoirs with interest! | |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 10:07 - Mar 18 with 1722 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 10:01 - Mar 18 by Guthrum |
There is a suggestion that one of the reasons the Russians have done worse than expected is because funds which should have been spent on shiny new military kit were instead spent on shiny new yachts and holiday homes.
I'm just an humble painter and decorator, me. But I do read a lot. |
A painter and decorator? In the Cheltenham area? Where GCHQ employees own houses? Houses that need to be painted and decorated?
I think we're seeing a picture emerge here of why Guthers seems so well-informed on security matters.... |  |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 10:29 - Mar 18 with 1665 views | Swansea_Blue |
I wonder if we'll get to the point where we realise the only way we can deal with him is militarily, and have to take a gamble on the risks? There's no guarantee he'll go nuclear, as he's not going to be able to recreate the Russian Empire if we retaliate and blow it to bits.
Not a decision I'd like to have to take, although someone does need to remove him (from office or life, either would do). |  |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 10:58 - Mar 18 with 1597 views | Guthrum |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 10:07 - Mar 18 by Ewan_Oozami |
A painter and decorator? In the Cheltenham area? Where GCHQ employees own houses? Houses that need to be painted and decorated?
I think we're seeing a picture emerge here of why Guthers seems so well-informed on security matters.... |
The town's largest single employer, can't really avoid them. But my more interesting contacts have actually come via the roleplaying* and boardgaming communities.
* Dungeons and Dragons, not doctors and nurses. | |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 11:05 - Mar 18 with 1578 views | Guthrum |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 10:29 - Mar 18 by Swansea_Blue |
I wonder if we'll get to the point where we realise the only way we can deal with him is militarily, and have to take a gamble on the risks? There's no guarantee he'll go nuclear, as he's not going to be able to recreate the Russian Empire if we retaliate and blow it to bits.
Not a decision I'd like to have to take, although someone does need to remove him (from office or life, either would do). |
Time will do it eventually. Just a matter of reducing the damage he can do until then.
Tend to think of some of our current troubles as being the last hurrah of an old world order. Of Cold War-era superpower politics. Of a certain type of nationalism. Of unregulated rapacious business, uncaring of environmental consequences. They don't want to go without a struggle, like the absolutist European monarchies up to 1914. | |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 11:12 - Mar 18 with 1547 views | BlueBadger |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 11:05 - Mar 18 by Guthrum |
Time will do it eventually. Just a matter of reducing the damage he can do until then.
Tend to think of some of our current troubles as being the last hurrah of an old world order. Of Cold War-era superpower politics. Of a certain type of nationalism. Of unregulated rapacious business, uncaring of environmental consequences. They don't want to go without a struggle, like the absolutist European monarchies up to 1914. |
I'm not afraid to admit ..... by BlueBadger 12 Mar 2022 10:54I'm trying to look on the bright side and hoping that this is the event the world needs in order to stop people from electing far-right populist loons into government.
Mind you, I also rather hoped that the pandemic might ultimately breed some empathy, patience, reassessing of our attitudes to work and some respect for our public services, so what do I know?
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 11:14 - Mar 18 with 1531 views | BlueBadger |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 10:58 - Mar 18 by Guthrum |
The town's largest single employer, can't really avoid them. But my more interesting contacts have actually come via the roleplaying* and boardgaming communities.
* Dungeons and Dragons, not doctors and nurses. |
Mate of mine works for them as a translator.
When she had her youngest, I rather naively asked 'why don't you have a work crèche' in response to her bemoaning difficulties obtaining childcare... | |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 11:25 - Mar 18 with 1465 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 10:58 - Mar 18 by Guthrum |
The town's largest single employer, can't really avoid them. But my more interesting contacts have actually come via the roleplaying* and boardgaming communities.
* Dungeons and Dragons, not doctors and nurses. |
Ahh, yes, that's where the real work is done, pretending you're playing silly fantasy games, but actually running real-world security scenarios :-) | |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 11:29 - Mar 18 with 1446 views | NthQldITFC |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:41 - Mar 18 by giant_stow |
In the interim, I did a google on what we spend on private schooling for the military and its relative peanuts tbf, from what I could see, so back in my box.*
I'd love to know how you managed to be so well informed on so many things mr - deep state contacts i reckon, you dark horse you!
*Full disclosure: Mrs Ullaa's mum lives down the road from a military family with XX* kids all at private school, so this is a regular topic of conversation on visits there (those bastads!!!!)
*the number of kids might have made them identifiable, but its lots and lots. [Post edited 18 Mar 2022 9:44]
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Twenty is indeed a lot of kids.
It must be quite a strategical dilemma for the Ukrainians, as to whether to keep fighting in the 'bulge' on the eastern side of the country (perhaps morally right for the whole of the country) and risk encirclement, or to straighten there lines somewhere east of Kyiv, perhaps a more pragmatic approach, where they might stand a better chance of fighting the Russians to a standstill, hitting their logistics routes hard, and destroying an unsustainable part of their army in the field. |  |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 11:31 - Mar 18 with 1435 views | lowhouseblue |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 09:22 - Mar 18 by giant_stow |
I had mr Elephant down as at least 70 something, given his wizened cynical outlook on stuff.
Interesting that our military budget is similar to Russia's - can't help thinking that we get less value for money, maybe because of all the generals sending their kids to expensive private schools on the taxpayers' tab, while they look forward to fat early pensions.
Hey ho, maybe I'm the grumpy one.
Incidentally, there's an article on the encirclement theory you mention above, in today's telegraph, which also compares to what happened in history (the French army and Russians (again near Kiev) in WW2, which were both news to me) |
russian military spending goes further because their man power is very cheap. there is increasing evidence that their spending on kit and systems may not have been done all that wisely, poor logistics, poor maintenance, under trained troops etc. conventional russian forces look less impressive than many assumed - the problem being that that leaves them reliant on the non-conventional threat. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 11:44 - Mar 18 with 1328 views | Churchman |
| Despite my moderately optimistic post the other day on 11:31 - Mar 18 by lowhouseblue |
russian military spending goes further because their man power is very cheap. there is increasing evidence that their spending on kit and systems may not have been done all that wisely, poor logistics, poor maintenance, under trained troops etc. conventional russian forces look less impressive than many assumed - the problem being that that leaves them reliant on the non-conventional threat. |
They have some good kit, like the Su35 and it’s latest gen tanks and missiles and plenty of old stuff. I suspect the same applies to the lads on the ground. Some good, highly trained guys and plenty of conscripts.
I don’t know what the breakdown of their spending is and I’m now mega out of date with U.K./American military now. What has surprised me though is how crude the Russians have been. Their logistics seem inadequate given they’ve appeared to split their forces all over the place and it really does feel like a give it one good show of strength and it’ll collapse approach. | | | |
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