| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 13:01 - Jul 11 with 5845 views | J2BLUE |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 12:58 - Jul 11 by jeera |
I'd say you're right but at the same time if they expect to be part of a group that also protects them what choice is there?
Banishment if they don't comply?
Each nation should respond in accordance to its capability.
I still cannot believe we've sat back and watched so many innocents die whilst applauding ourselves for sending weapons. |
If it comes time for NATO to take military action and nations refuse then they should be left to it if they need help.
I'm convinced some countries are in it for the protection if they get attacked but would quickly think again if it was another country further away. |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 16:18 - Jul 11 with 5737 views | Churchman |
In a Guardian article of 2/6 the author said:
‘The irony is painful. “For thirty years, Germans lectured Ukrainians about fascism,” the historian Timothy Snyder wrote recently. “When fascism actually arrived, Germans funded it, and Ukrainians died fighting it.”
So the Russians are squeezing Germany and the EU hard. I don’t blame them. The west can put away it shiny smiles and earnest speeches at the lectern and either get that knee bent to Putin and start grovelling or it can take its medicine and start working together to dig their way out of the mess. They put themselves in it, all for cheap energy and Ostpolitik.
That includes the U.K. which may not be so dependent on Russian energy, but is up to its elbows in blood through funding these animals so fulsomely before the war.
Edit: When it comes down to it, the west is all wind and hiss. Tough words, little actions.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/10/canada-exempts-russian-gas-turbine
[Post edited 11 Jul 2022 17:05]
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 18:44 - Jul 11 with 5706 views | Churchman |
Just like the Nazis then. ‘Spoils of war’. Animals | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 20:49 - Jul 11 with 5660 views | Churchman |
For goodness sake don’t let Putin see this. It’ll make him unhappy | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 23:56 - Jul 11 with 5627 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 20:49 - Jul 11 by Churchman |
For goodness sake don’t let Putin see this. It’ll make him unhappy |
Sorry I forgot about that and of course there would be consequences. Ireland does not have the protection of NATO so he will probably lob a few cruise missiles over here. |  | | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 05:13 - Jul 12 with 5605 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 23:56 - Jul 11 by Eireannach_gorm |
Sorry I forgot about that and of course there would be consequences. Ireland does not have the protection of NATO so he will probably lob a few cruise missiles over here. |
I doubt he’d differentiate between Ireland, England or anywhere else in the British Isles.
Anyway, with the nuclear threat we have, and I’ve been assured by people who know this stuff that it works, he will threat and bluster but won’t do anything other than economic measures. | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 20:16 - Jul 12 with 5516 views | jeera |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 23:56 - Jul 11 by Eireannach_gorm |
Sorry I forgot about that and of course there would be consequences. Ireland does not have the protection of NATO so he will probably lob a few cruise missiles over here. |
And you have been an outspoken opponent. |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:36 - Jul 12 with 5490 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 20:16 - Jul 12 by jeera |
And you have been an outspoken opponent. |
I think Ireland have rather less need of NATO than most other countries their size. Part in due to the special place in the US emotions it holds and part in due to the proximity and border it shares with the UK. I am quite sure any military attack on them would see a response from one or other (or more likely both) of those. |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:56 - Jul 13 with 5414 views | BLUEBEAT |
It's now Day 140 of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and here retired solider and current national security adviser Mark Hertling, who's rarely been wrong about anything in his analyses so far, gives his update of where things are currently at - and what we might expect to see I the coming days and weeks:
"As always, I'll provide two caveats: firstly, this assessment is based on open-source intel, some friends in the theatre of war, experiences as a commander in combat and an understanding of the Russia and Ukrainian way of war. It should also be noted that here's been less "kinetic" activity on the battle lines in the last week or so...
Russia claims:
- they're in their latest "operational pause" (by my count, this is their 4th).
- they're "consolidating" in newly "secured" territory (claims which are highly questionable).
Also over the last week, Ukraine:
- has become increasingly effective as a result of the newly acquired HIMARs
- has seen success in regaining territory (Snake Isl, resistance in Kherson & Zaporizhzhya Oblasts)
- has defended against small-scale Russian attacks in Kharkiv and Donbas.
What's significant is while both sides are certainly fatigued, Russian personnel and equipment losses are staggering.
While it's hard to tell true losses, no matter which figures one believes - and they do vary from Ukrainian MOD to independent analysts - it is difficult to comprehend the scale of the losses!
The Ukrainian military are reporting 37,000 Russians dead; 1000+ tanks, 4000 AFV, 1000+ artillery pieces, hundreds of aircraft (planes and helos) destroyed and 2500 ballistic missiles expended in 4 months. That's the upper end, and there are other slightly more conservative estimates.
In 138 days - less than 5 months - we've seen major shifts in Russian strategic and operational objectives and Russia hasn't gained that much ground. The Russian invasion has led to hard and brutal fighting, and Ukraine is making Russia pay for every foot of territory they take.
While they've been engaged in very tough fights in Donbas, indications are the UA has maneuvered brilliantly...employing an active defense, moving out from RU arty barrages, not allowing themselves to be surrounded, trading space for time & always finding defendable ground. 8/
That, combined with RU not properly regenerating attrited forces into capable fighting units and their seeming inability to C2 and executing effective combined arms maneuver with tanks, infantry, arty and engineers has added to UA success.
But there's more . . . the introduction of US HIMARS, NATO MLRS, & western technologically advanced artillery ( along with better intel & Q36/Q37 radars) allows Ukraine to identify, target, strike, and disrupt the Russian artillery supply chain.
So, what may happen next? Well, great armies and great generals win by adapting to changing conditions on the battlefield.
General Zaluzhnyi is a great general. He knows there are 3 main fronts. Ukraine is actively defending in the north and east and has active resistance in the south.
Russia, according to @defence_centre has the following:
In Kharkiv Oblast: 29 battalions - an estimated 22-29,000 troops
In Donbas: 44 battalions, 25-40,000 troops
In Zaporizhzhya: 22 battalions,15-20,000 troops
In Kherson: 13 battalions, 8-11,000 troops
Note that there are estimates and may be wrong.
This week, Defense Minister Reznikov & President Zelenskyy stated that it was time for a renewed fight "in the south" to ensure future economic stability.
Cities in Zaporizhzhya, Kherson, Mykolayivsk'a and Odes'ka Oblasts are critical to the Ukrainian economy.
Additionally, Ukraine has received increasing partner support. The G7 and NATO conferences in Germany & Madrid were critical, but little notice was paid to the Lugano Conference in Switzerland on 4-5 July, where the effort was on restoring Ukraine post-war, with several countries signing up to specific restoration in specific areas, so Ireland, for example, has committed to assist in the Rivne Region, while Austria will help with Zaporizhzhia, and so on.
With all this, as a operational commander I would assess:
Russia:
- Supplies negatively affected by Ukrainian strikes
- Little success in offensive ops
- Low morale of forces, decreasing manpower & equipment quality
- Increasing effects of economic sanctions
- Decreasing alliances
Ukraine:
- Increasing western arms & ammunition, increasingly able to counter RU artillery and manoeuvres
- Ukrainian forces fatigued, but morale remains high with the potential for further mobilization
- Potential for reinforcing resistance success on the second front in south
- Continued allied support
The keys to Ukrainian success:
- Hold in the north and the east, increase resistance in the south
- Continue attrition of Russian logistics and forces, protection of same in Ukraine
- Continue materiel and psychological support from allies
- Steady increase in sanctions on Russia; no let-up for Putin
- Regain control of exports and the economy.
 |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 08:23 - Jul 13 with 5392 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:56 - Jul 13 by BLUEBEAT |
It's now Day 140 of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and here retired solider and current national security adviser Mark Hertling, who's rarely been wrong about anything in his analyses so far, gives his update of where things are currently at - and what we might expect to see I the coming days and weeks:
"As always, I'll provide two caveats: firstly, this assessment is based on open-source intel, some friends in the theatre of war, experiences as a commander in combat and an understanding of the Russia and Ukrainian way of war. It should also be noted that here's been less "kinetic" activity on the battle lines in the last week or so...
Russia claims:
- they're in their latest "operational pause" (by my count, this is their 4th).
- they're "consolidating" in newly "secured" territory (claims which are highly questionable).
Also over the last week, Ukraine:
- has become increasingly effective as a result of the newly acquired HIMARs
- has seen success in regaining territory (Snake Isl, resistance in Kherson & Zaporizhzhya Oblasts)
- has defended against small-scale Russian attacks in Kharkiv and Donbas.
What's significant is while both sides are certainly fatigued, Russian personnel and equipment losses are staggering.
While it's hard to tell true losses, no matter which figures one believes - and they do vary from Ukrainian MOD to independent analysts - it is difficult to comprehend the scale of the losses!
The Ukrainian military are reporting 37,000 Russians dead; 1000+ tanks, 4000 AFV, 1000+ artillery pieces, hundreds of aircraft (planes and helos) destroyed and 2500 ballistic missiles expended in 4 months. That's the upper end, and there are other slightly more conservative estimates.
In 138 days - less than 5 months - we've seen major shifts in Russian strategic and operational objectives and Russia hasn't gained that much ground. The Russian invasion has led to hard and brutal fighting, and Ukraine is making Russia pay for every foot of territory they take.
While they've been engaged in very tough fights in Donbas, indications are the UA has maneuvered brilliantly...employing an active defense, moving out from RU arty barrages, not allowing themselves to be surrounded, trading space for time & always finding defendable ground. 8/
That, combined with RU not properly regenerating attrited forces into capable fighting units and their seeming inability to C2 and executing effective combined arms maneuver with tanks, infantry, arty and engineers has added to UA success.
But there's more . . . the introduction of US HIMARS, NATO MLRS, & western technologically advanced artillery ( along with better intel & Q36/Q37 radars) allows Ukraine to identify, target, strike, and disrupt the Russian artillery supply chain.
So, what may happen next? Well, great armies and great generals win by adapting to changing conditions on the battlefield.
General Zaluzhnyi is a great general. He knows there are 3 main fronts. Ukraine is actively defending in the north and east and has active resistance in the south.
Russia, according to @defence_centre has the following:
In Kharkiv Oblast: 29 battalions - an estimated 22-29,000 troops
In Donbas: 44 battalions, 25-40,000 troops
In Zaporizhzhya: 22 battalions,15-20,000 troops
In Kherson: 13 battalions, 8-11,000 troops
Note that there are estimates and may be wrong.
This week, Defense Minister Reznikov & President Zelenskyy stated that it was time for a renewed fight "in the south" to ensure future economic stability.
Cities in Zaporizhzhya, Kherson, Mykolayivsk'a and Odes'ka Oblasts are critical to the Ukrainian economy.
Additionally, Ukraine has received increasing partner support. The G7 and NATO conferences in Germany & Madrid were critical, but little notice was paid to the Lugano Conference in Switzerland on 4-5 July, where the effort was on restoring Ukraine post-war, with several countries signing up to specific restoration in specific areas, so Ireland, for example, has committed to assist in the Rivne Region, while Austria will help with Zaporizhzhia, and so on.
With all this, as a operational commander I would assess:
Russia:
- Supplies negatively affected by Ukrainian strikes
- Little success in offensive ops
- Low morale of forces, decreasing manpower & equipment quality
- Increasing effects of economic sanctions
- Decreasing alliances
Ukraine:
- Increasing western arms & ammunition, increasingly able to counter RU artillery and manoeuvres
- Ukrainian forces fatigued, but morale remains high with the potential for further mobilization
- Potential for reinforcing resistance success on the second front in south
- Continued allied support
The keys to Ukrainian success:
- Hold in the north and the east, increase resistance in the south
- Continue attrition of Russian logistics and forces, protection of same in Ukraine
- Continue materiel and psychological support from allies
- Steady increase in sanctions on Russia; no let-up for Putin
- Regain control of exports and the economy.
|
Thank you for this. It’s really interesting.
Today’s MOD Briefing:
In the Donbas, Russian forces will likely focus on taking several small towns during the coming week, including Siversk and Dolyna on the approaches to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. The urban
areas of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk likely remain the principal objectives for this phase of the
operation.
Russia continues to seek to undermine the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state and consolidate its
own governance and administrative control over occupied parts of Ukraine. Recently this has
included an initiative to twin Russian and Ukrainian cities and regions to develop post-conflict
administrations and a decree to make it easier for Ukrainians to obtain Russian citizenship.
Anti-Russian sentiment in occupied Ukraine is leading to Russian and pro-Russian officials being
targeted. The Russian-appointed administration in Velykyy Burluk acknowledged that one of its
mayors was killed on 11 July 2022 by a car bombing. The targeting of officials is likely to escalate,
exacerbating the already significant challenges facing the Russian occupiers and potentially
increasing the pressure on already reduced military and security formations. [Post edited 13 Jul 2022 8:24]
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 15:25 - Jul 13 with 5337 views | Eireannach_gorm |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 15:43 - Jul 13 with 5324 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 15:25 - Jul 13 by Eireannach_gorm |
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Nice to see the nut jobs supporting each other.
In 2018, Kim Jong-un, according to the Independent, had 11 musicians executed with an anti-aircraft gun. After that the tanks rolled up and mashed in the bits. He also ordered aides to pick out sex slaves fromNorth Korea’s schools, according to a defector.
Just the kind of person whose ‘recognition’ for Putin’s illegal actions is going to count for so much. | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 15:44 - Jul 13 with 5314 views | Eireannach_gorm |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 19:31 - Jul 13 with 5248 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:56 - Jul 13 by BLUEBEAT |
It's now Day 140 of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and here retired solider and current national security adviser Mark Hertling, who's rarely been wrong about anything in his analyses so far, gives his update of where things are currently at - and what we might expect to see I the coming days and weeks:
"As always, I'll provide two caveats: firstly, this assessment is based on open-source intel, some friends in the theatre of war, experiences as a commander in combat and an understanding of the Russia and Ukrainian way of war. It should also be noted that here's been less "kinetic" activity on the battle lines in the last week or so...
Russia claims:
- they're in their latest "operational pause" (by my count, this is their 4th).
- they're "consolidating" in newly "secured" territory (claims which are highly questionable).
Also over the last week, Ukraine:
- has become increasingly effective as a result of the newly acquired HIMARs
- has seen success in regaining territory (Snake Isl, resistance in Kherson & Zaporizhzhya Oblasts)
- has defended against small-scale Russian attacks in Kharkiv and Donbas.
What's significant is while both sides are certainly fatigued, Russian personnel and equipment losses are staggering.
While it's hard to tell true losses, no matter which figures one believes - and they do vary from Ukrainian MOD to independent analysts - it is difficult to comprehend the scale of the losses!
The Ukrainian military are reporting 37,000 Russians dead; 1000+ tanks, 4000 AFV, 1000+ artillery pieces, hundreds of aircraft (planes and helos) destroyed and 2500 ballistic missiles expended in 4 months. That's the upper end, and there are other slightly more conservative estimates.
In 138 days - less than 5 months - we've seen major shifts in Russian strategic and operational objectives and Russia hasn't gained that much ground. The Russian invasion has led to hard and brutal fighting, and Ukraine is making Russia pay for every foot of territory they take.
While they've been engaged in very tough fights in Donbas, indications are the UA has maneuvered brilliantly...employing an active defense, moving out from RU arty barrages, not allowing themselves to be surrounded, trading space for time & always finding defendable ground. 8/
That, combined with RU not properly regenerating attrited forces into capable fighting units and their seeming inability to C2 and executing effective combined arms maneuver with tanks, infantry, arty and engineers has added to UA success.
But there's more . . . the introduction of US HIMARS, NATO MLRS, & western technologically advanced artillery ( along with better intel & Q36/Q37 radars) allows Ukraine to identify, target, strike, and disrupt the Russian artillery supply chain.
So, what may happen next? Well, great armies and great generals win by adapting to changing conditions on the battlefield.
General Zaluzhnyi is a great general. He knows there are 3 main fronts. Ukraine is actively defending in the north and east and has active resistance in the south.
Russia, according to @defence_centre has the following:
In Kharkiv Oblast: 29 battalions - an estimated 22-29,000 troops
In Donbas: 44 battalions, 25-40,000 troops
In Zaporizhzhya: 22 battalions,15-20,000 troops
In Kherson: 13 battalions, 8-11,000 troops
Note that there are estimates and may be wrong.
This week, Defense Minister Reznikov & President Zelenskyy stated that it was time for a renewed fight "in the south" to ensure future economic stability.
Cities in Zaporizhzhya, Kherson, Mykolayivsk'a and Odes'ka Oblasts are critical to the Ukrainian economy.
Additionally, Ukraine has received increasing partner support. The G7 and NATO conferences in Germany & Madrid were critical, but little notice was paid to the Lugano Conference in Switzerland on 4-5 July, where the effort was on restoring Ukraine post-war, with several countries signing up to specific restoration in specific areas, so Ireland, for example, has committed to assist in the Rivne Region, while Austria will help with Zaporizhzhia, and so on.
With all this, as a operational commander I would assess:
Russia:
- Supplies negatively affected by Ukrainian strikes
- Little success in offensive ops
- Low morale of forces, decreasing manpower & equipment quality
- Increasing effects of economic sanctions
- Decreasing alliances
Ukraine:
- Increasing western arms & ammunition, increasingly able to counter RU artillery and manoeuvres
- Ukrainian forces fatigued, but morale remains high with the potential for further mobilization
- Potential for reinforcing resistance success on the second front in south
- Continued allied support
The keys to Ukrainian success:
- Hold in the north and the east, increase resistance in the south
- Continue attrition of Russian logistics and forces, protection of same in Ukraine
- Continue materiel and psychological support from allies
- Steady increase in sanctions on Russia; no let-up for Putin
- Regain control of exports and the economy.
|
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 19:40 - Jul 13 with 5245 views | Eireannach_gorm |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 20:10 - Jul 13 with 5233 views | jeera |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 19:40 - Jul 13 by Eireannach_gorm |
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They're not going to see it though are they.
The average Russian has no idea and most probably never will. | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 20:30 - Jul 13 with 5214 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 20:10 - Jul 13 by jeera |
They're not going to see it though are they.
The average Russian has no idea and most probably never will. |
It’s doubtful. I think there is an element of soaking up the relentless and thorough propaganda, a desire to support their liberating forces, fear of questioning, a desire to keep one’s head down, nationalism and other factors.
I hope years of exposure to the west style living and products, access to the worldwide web will lead to people questioning, even if it’s private or when the funerals grow too great in number. | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:58 - Jul 13 with 5169 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
My child had a production of Treachery at Traitors' Quay. I felt for the Ukrainian girl who is there now. I wonder what she makes of it and how she has been affected (aside from the obvious that she has been brought to live with a family member here while her parents are still in Ukraine).
It is just a game and people are just pawns in it to Putin and those at his level. | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:43 - Jul 14 with 5062 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:58 - Jul 13 by Nthsuffolkblue |
My child had a production of Treachery at Traitors' Quay. I felt for the Ukrainian girl who is there now. I wonder what she makes of it and how she has been affected (aside from the obvious that she has been brought to live with a family member here while her parents are still in Ukraine).
It is just a game and people are just pawns in it to Putin and those at his level. |
The nature of totalitarian states that the more people you kill, the greater the respect, fear and bending to your will. It is strength. Control of life and death is power. Their world is all of their making and one where you are never wrong. Dictators often raise people to serve, setting them against their peers then getting rid of them if they get too powerful.
Stalin was a class act in that removing his senior people regularly in purges, including generals etc just before Germany invaded on 22/6/41. Not the best timing and when his army got battered? It didn’t matter, replace the replacements.
Kim Jong-un had his Defence Minister blown to bits by anti-aircraft gun for nodding off during some performance or other. Hitler just had them shot (night of the long knives), poisoned, had an accident. Pawns.
A clever butcher mixes a little carrot with a lot of stick. In WW2 Reinhard Heydrich, a clever stylish ambitious man, was given Czechoslovakia to look after. Workers rations were improved, able people promoted and rate of round ups and killings increased in a model of efficiency. He was so good he headed up the Wannsee conference that decided on ‘the final solution’ and there is little doubt he would have got rid of Himmler in time in his quest for power and maybe challenged Hitler in the longer term. A dictator in the making. Would Hitler have got rid of him first? Who knows. Luckily for the world two brave Czech SOE operatives assassinated him.
So yes is that people are a resource, numbers, to be used or disposed of. Nothing. Putin will see the disposal of generals and his own people as a cost but also a great benefit. The more the better. People can be replaced easily. It will drive fear, increase his control over subordinates, increase his power.
He would have no problem using nuclear weapons but for one reason. Somebody using them on him because of his inbuilt cowardice. Same with Kim Jong-un. It’s why having nuclear capability and making Putin understand you will use it is crucial. These are the people the west is dealing with.
The odd one is India. I understand it’s hatred of the west, particularly Britain given its history, but to ally yourself so closely to totalitarian states like Russia and China makes no sense to me. It seems a ‘lazy’ decision, somewhat similar to Germany laying down before Russia for cheap energy and peace (that went well) in recent years. It has a choice to make. [Post edited 14 Jul 2022 7:47]
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 16:41 - Jul 14 with 4991 views | Eireannach_gorm |
This was one of the strikes.
Interesting this shows the missile launcher that stuck flight MH17 going through Snizhne.
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