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North of the border blues 21:53 - Jun 14 with 2122 viewsgtsb1966

IF there is another vote on Scottish independence have things changed dramatically enough from 2014 to make it a 50/50 call.
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North of the border blues on 22:22 - Jun 14 with 1441 viewsWeWereZombies

2014 - Indyref1
2016 - Brexit vote

Hope that helps...

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North of the border blues on 23:26 - Jun 14 with 1403 viewstractordownsouth

At a time where the UK government is attempting to renege on its commitments with the NI protocol and disregarding international law to do so, it’s a shame to see the SNP following suit and forcing a referendum they legally cannot deliver. Hopefully this pattern of governments following illegal culture war strategies to rile up the base will stop soon.

As for the vote itself, it’s anyone’s guess. Polling seems to change week by week and if a vote happened today it would be a coin flip. The reason Sturgeon is so desperate for the referendum to happen ASAP is because if Johnson leaves No10 so does the biggest argument in favour of independence. If the Tories are voted out then it will be even harder for her.

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North of the border blues on 23:41 - Jun 14 with 1393 viewspointofblue

I want independence from England at the moment... and I live there.

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I suspect it would a clear majority for independence if the vote happened… on 00:05 - Jun 15 with 1376 viewsunstableblue

…, tomorrow

Boris and this Tory cabinet are gold dust for the independence movement

Add a faltering economy and the Brexit debacle and its game over for the union

The Catalonia trump card may still be there though
[Post edited 15 Jun 2022 0:07]

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North of the border blues on 04:24 - Jun 15 with 1323 viewswkj

North of the border blues on 23:26 - Jun 14 by tractordownsouth

At a time where the UK government is attempting to renege on its commitments with the NI protocol and disregarding international law to do so, it’s a shame to see the SNP following suit and forcing a referendum they legally cannot deliver. Hopefully this pattern of governments following illegal culture war strategies to rile up the base will stop soon.

As for the vote itself, it’s anyone’s guess. Polling seems to change week by week and if a vote happened today it would be a coin flip. The reason Sturgeon is so desperate for the referendum to happen ASAP is because if Johnson leaves No10 so does the biggest argument in favour of independence. If the Tories are voted out then it will be even harder for her.


A few holes here - Sturgeon made independence part of her mandate again, and people voting for her are voting for that mandate by proxy. She'll be done when the electorate deems it necessary.

The UK has definitely changed a lot since IndyRef happened, and I can understand why there might be a case for a renewed look at independence as a result. Whilst there may be a stalemate in the future, regardless of the result, this has the potential to get very messy.

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North of the border blues on 04:48 - Jun 15 with 1316 viewsJ2BLUE

They should go. Good luck to them.

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I suspect it would a clear majority for independence if the vote happened… on 06:26 - Jun 15 with 1275 viewsBarcaBlue

I suspect it would a clear majority for independence if the vote happened… on 00:05 - Jun 15 by unstableblue

…, tomorrow

Boris and this Tory cabinet are gold dust for the independence movement

Add a faltering economy and the Brexit debacle and its game over for the union

The Catalonia trump card may still be there though
[Post edited 15 Jun 2022 0:07]


What is the Catalonia trump card?
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North of the border blues on 07:06 - Jun 15 with 1238 viewsLeithblue

Yes, I was a firm NO in 2014 but would vote for independence now
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North of the border blues on 07:39 - Jun 15 with 1197 viewsGlasgowBlue

North of the border blues on 04:24 - Jun 15 by wkj

A few holes here - Sturgeon made independence part of her mandate again, and people voting for her are voting for that mandate by proxy. She'll be done when the electorate deems it necessary.

The UK has definitely changed a lot since IndyRef happened, and I can understand why there might be a case for a renewed look at independence as a result. Whilst there may be a stalemate in the future, regardless of the result, this has the potential to get very messy.


She didn’t get a mandate as she failed to get a majority. She had to form a coalition with the greens, who although are pro independence it is not the main reason people vote green.

In last year’s elections the Pr0Independence parties got 49%, SNP 47.7% and and Greens1.7%, with Pro Unionist parties getting 51%.
[Post edited 15 Jun 2022 7:40]

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North of the border blues on 07:39 - Jun 15 with 1196 viewstractordownsouth

North of the border blues on 04:24 - Jun 15 by wkj

A few holes here - Sturgeon made independence part of her mandate again, and people voting for her are voting for that mandate by proxy. She'll be done when the electorate deems it necessary.

The UK has definitely changed a lot since IndyRef happened, and I can understand why there might be a case for a renewed look at independence as a result. Whilst there may be a stalemate in the future, regardless of the result, this has the potential to get very messy.


I don’t understand the argument about the change in circumstance regarding Brexit though. Cameron pledged the EU referendum in 2013, a year before the independence vote, so voters knew that there was a chance of not being in the EU within the UK. This doesn’t get mentioned enough.

I get the argument about the mandate and I think if the SNP continue to dominate for another 15 years they should get another referendum to follow the last “once in a generation” vote. However, parties campaigning for something they have no legal right to do and then claiming it’s a mandate is also a bit flawed.

As for my own views on the issue, I don’t understand the logic of thinking that because the UK pulling away from its biggest trading partner has proven to be a disaster, it provides a justification for Scotland pulling away from its own trading partner. If anything I’d argue it makes independence even less of a good idea.

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I suspect it would a clear majority for independence if the vote happened… on 07:53 - Jun 15 with 1176 viewsWeWereZombies

I suspect it would a clear majority for independence if the vote happened… on 00:05 - Jun 15 by unstableblue

…, tomorrow

Boris and this Tory cabinet are gold dust for the independence movement

Add a faltering economy and the Brexit debacle and its game over for the union

The Catalonia trump card may still be there though
[Post edited 15 Jun 2022 0:07]


Comparisons with Catalonia do not provide a 'trump card' (unless the populace of Scotland undergo an unlikely transformation into Trump supporting drones) as the underlying structure of the constitutions of the United Kingdom and Spain are very different. If Catalonia were to somehow leave Spain the formal constitution of 1978 would collapse (probably making a fertile ground for the renewal of a Franco like state in the rest of the nation) with a real likelihood of civil war and economic shock as one of the major industrial regions was lost. By comparison, the less formal United Kingdom arrangements have left Scotland with its own legal system all the way from the Union of Crowns (1603) and then the Union of Parliaments (1707). There are a multitude of pathways by which Scottish 'independence' (although IndyRef1 had no arrangements for a sovereign other than the Queen and no proposal for armed forces other than the existing British ones, IndyRef2 may be even less separatist in efforts to draw in as wide an 'Aye' vote as possible) could be achieved, even some attractive suggestions for a Federal Britain with a much less controlling centre and state like attributes for Scotland, England (and/or regions of that nation), Wales and the island of Ireland (tough one, that.)
[Post edited 15 Jun 2022 7:58]

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I suspect it would a clear majority for independence if the vote happened… on 07:55 - Jun 15 with 1170 viewsunstableblue

I suspect it would a clear majority for independence if the vote happened… on 06:26 - Jun 15 by BarcaBlue

What is the Catalonia trump card?


https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-fires-diplomat-in-scotland-over-eu-members

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North of the border blues on 09:03 - Jun 15 with 1107 viewsN2_Blue

North of the border blues on 22:22 - Jun 14 by WeWereZombies

2014 - Indyref1
2016 - Brexit vote

Hope that helps...


Here's a small poll for you.

I know 5 Scots and all 5 voted against independence in 2014.

If there was a vote now 4 would vote For independence and the other is wavering towards voting for it as well.

If there was a vote today forget 50/50, i think it would be about 75 / 25 in voting for independence. And good luck to them i say. I was glad they voted against it in 2014 but think they should go for it now.

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I suspect it would a clear majority for independence if the vote happened… on 09:07 - Jun 15 with 1104 viewsBarcaBlue

I suspect it would a clear majority for independence if the vote happened… on 07:55 - Jun 15 by unstableblue

https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-fires-diplomat-in-scotland-over-eu-members


I fail to see what the trump card is though. I also don't see a parallel between Scotland and Catalonia.

Madrid will never offer an independence vote and with the rest of the country careering to the (far) right it's an absolute impossibility. There's a real wane in support here anyway so a repeat of the 2017 unofficial ballot and declaration of independence is equally unlikely. It makes membership of the EU a moot point for Spain regarding Scotland, and of course Catalonia.
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North of the border blues on 10:02 - Jun 15 with 1052 viewsGlasgowBlue

North of the border blues on 09:03 - Jun 15 by N2_Blue

Here's a small poll for you.

I know 5 Scots and all 5 voted against independence in 2014.

If there was a vote now 4 would vote For independence and the other is wavering towards voting for it as well.

If there was a vote today forget 50/50, i think it would be about 75 / 25 in voting for independence. And good luck to them i say. I was glad they voted against it in 2014 but think they should go for it now.


“The result of an IndyRef today — 1st June 2022

The latest monthly polling averages on Scottish independence show ‘No’ campaigners to have a 5% lead over ‘Yes’ campaigners. The latest polling places the ‘No’ side at 52.5% and the ‘Yes’ side at 47.5%.

This compares with the position in the 2016 Independence referendum, when 55.3% of Scottish voters opposed plans for an Independent Scotland, with 44.7% voting in favour.”

https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/scottish-independence-polls/

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/14/where-do-scots-

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North of the border blues on 10:03 - Jun 15 with 1044 viewsScotBlue

AS someone who lives right on the border [Scottish Side] and hearing about hard borders especially if after Independance Scotland then pursued joining the EU it would be a disaster for our border region. Carlisle is my nearest town and where I would go and do all my shopping, most of my clients work in England so for this area it is against any Independance. As you move further North then this argument gets less and less. My biggest concern with the SNP is that they have yet to show how to run an economy. We pay slightly higher taxes here and get some major benefits [free prescriptions, University education etc] however at the last budget there was a freeze on all public spending for the next 5 years and the blame was laid at not getting enough money from Westminster. The big money earner during Indeyref1 was the North Sea oil however the greens do not want to see any more drilling and are actively looking at closing the oil industry down
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North of the border blues on 10:17 - Jun 15 with 1021 viewsDarth_Koont

Yes and no. Brexit is a big shift but that's still more confirmation of how woeful Westminster is.

There hasn't even been any campaigning and it's neck and neck. But the gig will really be up when the faceless, self-serving main parties start to argue for Better Together – it was a tissue of platitudes before, now their case is more empty and meaningless than ever before.

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North of the border blues on 10:34 - Jun 15 with 1004 viewsgiant_stow

North of the border blues on 10:17 - Jun 15 by Darth_Koont

Yes and no. Brexit is a big shift but that's still more confirmation of how woeful Westminster is.

There hasn't even been any campaigning and it's neck and neck. But the gig will really be up when the faceless, self-serving main parties start to argue for Better Together – it was a tissue of platitudes before, now their case is more empty and meaningless than ever before.


Out of interest, is Holyrood seen as being better than Westminster in terms of quality up there? I could be reading the wrong things, but it seems to me that SNP has an at best, debatable track record....

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North of the border blues on 11:10 - Jun 15 with 976 viewswkj

North of the border blues on 07:39 - Jun 15 by tractordownsouth

I don’t understand the argument about the change in circumstance regarding Brexit though. Cameron pledged the EU referendum in 2013, a year before the independence vote, so voters knew that there was a chance of not being in the EU within the UK. This doesn’t get mentioned enough.

I get the argument about the mandate and I think if the SNP continue to dominate for another 15 years they should get another referendum to follow the last “once in a generation” vote. However, parties campaigning for something they have no legal right to do and then claiming it’s a mandate is also a bit flawed.

As for my own views on the issue, I don’t understand the logic of thinking that because the UK pulling away from its biggest trading partner has proven to be a disaster, it provides a justification for Scotland pulling away from its own trading partner. If anything I’d argue it makes independence even less of a good idea.


Brexit is one thing, the bastardisation of the NI protocol and general bollucksed up nature of how Brexit was handled is another entirely.

Crybaby
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North of the border blues on 11:11 - Jun 15 with 975 viewswkj

North of the border blues on 07:39 - Jun 15 by GlasgowBlue

She didn’t get a mandate as she failed to get a majority. She had to form a coalition with the greens, who although are pro independence it is not the main reason people vote green.

In last year’s elections the Pr0Independence parties got 49%, SNP 47.7% and and Greens1.7%, with Pro Unionist parties getting 51%.
[Post edited 15 Jun 2022 7:40]


Close enough

Crybaby
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North of the border blues on 11:29 - Jun 15 with 954 viewsGlasgowBlue

North of the border blues on 11:11 - Jun 15 by wkj

Close enough


Close enough isn’t a mandate though.

The unionist parties had a bigger vote share and the SNP did not get a majority. So they fell short in both counts.

Had the Brexit referendum delivered a result of Leave 49%/ Remain 51%, you wouldn’t have called it a mandate to leave. You’d have laughed had Farage said we should leave as it was close enough.

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North of the border blues on 11:35 - Jun 15 with 944 viewstractordownsouth

North of the border blues on 11:10 - Jun 15 by wkj

Brexit is one thing, the bastardisation of the NI protocol and general bollucksed up nature of how Brexit was handled is another entirely.


It's a clusterfudge but it's a reason to get rid of the present government, not the country itself.

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North of the border blues on 11:39 - Jun 15 with 940 viewswkj

North of the border blues on 11:29 - Jun 15 by GlasgowBlue

Close enough isn’t a mandate though.

The unionist parties had a bigger vote share and the SNP did not get a majority. So they fell short in both counts.

Had the Brexit referendum delivered a result of Leave 49%/ Remain 51%, you wouldn’t have called it a mandate to leave. You’d have laughed had Farage said we should leave as it was close enough.


I don't think I would ever laugh at anything Farage says. Whilst sturgeon is FM and her M.O is IndyRef - she's going to carry out what she said she'd do and is in the position of governance to do so, the voters have enabled her to do this - regardless of having a mathematical majority or not.

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North of the border blues on 11:45 - Jun 15 with 934 viewswkj

North of the border blues on 11:35 - Jun 15 by tractordownsouth

It's a clusterfudge but it's a reason to get rid of the present government, not the country itself.


This is one of those cases where it might make no sense on the outside, but the truth of the matter is that there is still interest from a good number of people to investigate it. Besides, getting rid of the present government would be a welcome side effect (if not the main motivator) of independence for anti-union campaigners.
[Post edited 15 Jun 2022 11:46]

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North of the border blues on 12:05 - Jun 15 with 894 viewsDarth_Koont

North of the border blues on 10:34 - Jun 15 by giant_stow

Out of interest, is Holyrood seen as being better than Westminster in terms of quality up there? I could be reading the wrong things, but it seems to me that SNP has an at best, debatable track record....


The Scottish government is hamstrung by low budgets and the priorities of the UK as a whole.

Who would do better in that context?

Independence is the means to a better society and stronger economy, not the end in itself.

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