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I think we all know the models are going to over estimate the highest temp next weekend (although don't forget real feel, the temp recorded for the record, often feels a lot lower than what you experience - humidity, lack of wind)
But I think the point some experts are making is that the fact the models are outputting these estimates shows that the input variables are pretty off the scale at present, and eventually the models (due to probability) will be right.
Speaking of mad, and something I posted the other day.. the real feel at PR at kick-off on Tuesday for West Ham game is 31C - THIRTY ONE CENTIGRADE.. from a 27c temp. That's pretty nuts.
Poor Portugal - 43c this week, major drought, and the air-con uptick is threatening energy supply with CCGT need and gas issues... I do see a time in a few years where the UK and Scotland become the go-to holiday destination for southern Europeans to escape their own sweat-boxes???
London forecast is 34 degrees for a couple of days - that'll be a most likely, conservative estimate, and there'll be a chance of much hotter weather there or nearby, the top temperature actually recorded is often a few degrees above the forecast I think.
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Weather heads up. on 12:15 - Jul 11 with 1834 views
London forecast is 34 degrees for a couple of days - that'll be a most likely, conservative estimate, and there'll be a chance of much hotter weather there or nearby, the top temperature actually recorded is often a few degrees above the forecast I think.
Since reading this thread, I've been checking the beeb forecast loads. Yesterday, they said next Sunday would be 35, so its actually gone down a tiny bit.
Has anyone ever looked at their own postings for last day or so? Oh my... so sorry. Was Ullaa
I skimmed it earlier and I think the more extreme model runs of yesterday are falling away a bit. Still likely to be very hot though. Remember that the model runs quoted are not forecasts but represent a range of possible outcomes. As we get closer to the day the uncertainties diminish, the model runs tend to get closer together and you can start to talk in terms of an actual forecast.
Exactly.
The "models" are essentially a huge monte carlo simulation where variables are tweaked each time (probably randomly within a tolerance) and then the forecast model is run using those inputs. This will always create tail events which show incredibly hot but hugely unlikely scenarios. In the end you'll get some form of bell curve and the actual weather is highly likely to fall in the middle area of that curve.
The real worry here is that the baseline inputs to the simulation are likely moving to values which generate extreme weather events as a far more regular occurrence and we all know the reasons for that.
Since reading this thread, I've been checking the beeb forecast loads. Yesterday, they said next Sunday would be 35, so its actually gone down a tiny bit.
The Met Office just released the first ever amber warning for extreme heat for Sunday.
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
Worth saying the met office have now put out an amber weather warning for heat next Sunday. This is an exceptionally rare occurrence and I believe records could potentially fall.
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Weather heads up. on 14:18 - Jul 11 with 1646 views
Maybe Monday as the hottest day now and, as this account points out, it's the culmination of several hot days that make the heat really uncomfortable (especially in urban areas):
Maybe Monday as the hottest day now and, as this account points out, it's the culmination of several hot days that make the heat really uncomfortable (especially in urban areas):
I follow him on Twitter, he's usually very good and doesn't get too over-excited.
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Weather heads up. on 15:00 - Jul 11 with 1568 views
Think if it’s broken it will be at Santon Downham….in Suffolk of course, not Norfolk as the Daily Mail seem to think it is, unless they have moved it to the other side of the Little Ouse….
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Weather heads up. on 15:26 - Jul 11 with 1526 views
This has been uploaded 30 mins ago. A week tomorrow might be interesting as some models are saying 40+ degree temps for East Anglia. Depending on severe thunderstorms developing.
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Weather heads up. on 15:27 - Jul 11 with 1523 views
Weather heads up. on 15:26 - Jul 11 by Chondzoresk
This has been uploaded 30 mins ago. A week tomorrow might be interesting as some models are saying 40+ degree temps for East Anglia. Depending on severe thunderstorms developing.
Sorry forgot link….
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Weather heads up. on 15:40 - Jul 11 with 1505 views
Based on a rather primitive and particularly local model.
I can say it is bloody hot today.
Cycled 27 miles today - and opted not to have the usual race home for the last couple due to the heat. Brutal, and we set off just after 8 to miss the worst of it...
Since reading this thread, I've been checking the beeb forecast loads. Yesterday, they said next Sunday would be 35, so its actually gone down a tiny bit.
Of course in the real world people get out and enjoy a bit of hot weather.
One of the reasons it seems quite warm is that declared temperatures are in the shade. Whilst people rush out into the sunshine.
The "models" are essentially a huge monte carlo simulation where variables are tweaked each time (probably randomly within a tolerance) and then the forecast model is run using those inputs. This will always create tail events which show incredibly hot but hugely unlikely scenarios. In the end you'll get some form of bell curve and the actual weather is highly likely to fall in the middle area of that curve.
The real worry here is that the baseline inputs to the simulation are likely moving to values which generate extreme weather events as a far more regular occurrence and we all know the reasons for that.
SB
Been playing around with Monte Carlo simulations at work recently, really interesting stuff.
When we had over 40c in Melbourne we'd go to the mall and the cinema to soak up the free air con, hit a bottle-o for the walk in fridge and then sleep on the sofa bed in the lounge as our bedroom didn't have air con. We don't have quite so many keep cool options back in the UK unfortunately.
A UKHSA spokesman said: "There's a possibility of a level four heatwave. If it gets above 40C, then it is likely to be a level four heatwave for the first time.
"I don't see how it couldn't be in those temperatures."
Such an emergency indicates that food supplies could be hit, as well as disruption on the roads and rail, the shutdown of classrooms and even nuclear power plants put out of action.
It would also “threaten the integrity of the health and social care system”.
Members of the public have been told not to make 999 calls "in emergencies only".
"Substantial changes in working practices and daily routines [are] likely to be required," said the Met Office, with the amber warning expected to be extended into Monday.
Unions called for employees to be allowed to work from home in the heat and to ditch jackets and ties.
Some Conservative MPs questioned the need for the national emergency and the resulting disruption.
Sir John Hayes, chairman of the Common Sense Group of Conservative MPs, said: "This is not a brave new world but a cowardly new world where we live in a country where we are frightened of the heat. It is not surprising that in snowflake Britain, the snowflakes are melting. Thankfully, most of us are not snowflakes.
"They break our legs and tell us to be grateful when they offer us crutches."
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