| Brexit damaged the economy: copyright Kemi Badenoch 13:22 - Dec 9 with 1054 views | DJR |
From her speech this morning
"Adam Smith once said, “There is a lot of ruin in a nation.”
For all that is going wrong now, and let’s be honest has gone wrong in the past, nations can absorb shocks.
The financial crisis, Brexit, Covid.
Countries with strong institutions and productive people do not collapse overnight.
Even foolish policies take time to do real, lasting damage.
A crisis is serious, but it is not fatal unless governments keep repeating the mistakes.
We made mistakes in government, but we have learned from them."
Do you think she realises what she said?  |  | | |  |
| Brexit damaged the economy: copyright Kemi Badenoch on 15:09 - Dec 9 with 164 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Brexit damaged the economy: copyright Kemi Badenoch on 14:51 - Dec 9 by StokieBlue |
Irrelevant as I've explained.
Inconvenient for you? Absolutely.
SB |
It would be inconvenient for me if the UK had only grown 2.5% SINCE Q1 2020. But that would be Germany, who didn't leave the EU. But I understand you decision to swerve it. |  |
| |
| Brexit damaged the economy: copyright Kemi Badenoch on 15:16 - Dec 9 with 151 views | nrb1985 |
| Brexit damaged the economy: copyright Kemi Badenoch on 14:52 - Dec 9 by GlasgowBlue |
So what you are saying is we should have stayed in the EU, retained a Tory government and we'd all be swimming in cash? |
With respect mate, you've posted something from some chap with a crayon drawing on who works for the IEA...a think tank that gave us the genius economic policies behind Liz Truss.
Here's the exec summary from a 14 page paper I read last year from Goldman, I can find you five others from the various research providers I work with - all basically saying exactly the same thing.
I'm sure your bloke with a crayon on X, giving away his opinions for free probably knows best though...
"The UK has significantly underperformed other advanced economies since the 2016 EU referendum, with lower growth and higher inflation.
In this note we take stock of the economic costs of Brexit (both structural and cyclical), the mechanisms at play and the path ahead.
Our analysis suggests that UK real GDP has fallen short of similar countries—summarised with an estimated “Doppelgänger”—by about 5% since the referendum. The uncertainty around this estimate, however, is significant (ranging from 4-8%) and not all of the UK’s growth underperformance can be attributed to Brexit, as both the pandemic and the energy crisis weighed strongly on the UK economy.
That said, the Doppelgänger estimates of the Brexit costs are quite consistent with prior studies, which likewise cluster around 5%.
Given significant uncertainty around the top-down estimates, we explore the mechanisms through which Brexit has weighed on the UK economy.
First, we show that UK goods trade has underperformed other advanced economies by around 15% since the referendum.
Second, business investment has been weak since 2016, falling notably short of the pre-referendum trend.
Third, immigration from the EU has dropped sharply but non-EU immigration has risen significantly, although the recent increase has been skewed towards students with lower participation rates.
Taken together, the evidence points to a significant long-run output cost of Brexit, broadly consistent with the range predicted by prior studies.
In terms of the mechanisms, our analysis suggests that the drop in trade has been roughly as expected, the underperformance in investment more pronounced than anticipated but the effect on overall immigration more muted.
Our analysis also suggests that the shift in immigration patterns has important cyclical repercussions for the UK economy.
In particular, we see that (1) sectors most reliant on EU workers experienced the largest increases in vacancy rates and (2) migration inflows from the EU have historically been more cyclical than non-EU flows. This suggests that the post-Brexit change in immigration flows has reduced the elasticity of labour supply in the UK, contributing to the post-pandemic surge in inflation and pointing to more cyclical labour market and inflation pressures going forward.
Looking ahead, the UK is in the process of negotiating a number of non-EU trade deals.
While new trade agreements could, in principle, help mitigate the costs of Brexit, estimates suggest that the benefit from new non-EU trade deals is likely to be small.
The direction of UK/EU trading relations is therefore likely to be quantitatively more important. While we see a number of areas for potential closer cooperation—including agriculture and, possibly, financial services—the direction will depend importantly on the next government’s plans and priorities" [Post edited 9 Dec 15:16]
|  | | |
| Brexit damaged the economy: copyright Kemi Badenoch on 15:20 - Dec 9 with 140 views | StokieBlue |
| Brexit damaged the economy: copyright Kemi Badenoch on 15:09 - Dec 9 by GlasgowBlue |
It would be inconvenient for me if the UK had only grown 2.5% SINCE Q1 2020. But that would be Germany, who didn't leave the EU. But I understand you decision to swerve it. |
It's not a swerve, your argument is flawed and thus I've not engaged with it. Your argument implies all countries have the same internal economics as well as external trade which isn't the case.
Performance of other countries is irrelevant. Our performance versus where we would have been without Brexit is what is relevant.
You not engaging with this is the only swerve here, but I understand it.
SB |  | | |
| Brexit damaged the economy: copyright Kemi Badenoch on 15:40 - Dec 9 with 100 views | WeWereZombies |
| Brexit damaged the economy: copyright Kemi Badenoch on 14:27 - Dec 9 by GlasgowBlue |
The way Brexit has been handled has been an absolute sh1t show and, desite voting to leave, I would vote to rejoin tomorrow because it's made us a more divisive and nasty society. I think the economic benefits of Brexit are few and far between as well. But you honestly think we’d have vastly outperformed the rest of Europe of we’d stayed in? When did that last happen?
Anyway, no body has bothered answering the question I posed so I'll repeat: Here’s the cumulative real GDP growth for Europe’s four biggest economies since Q1 2020: 9%, 7.5%, 6.2%, 2.1%. Which one left the EU? It can't be that hard to answer. [Post edited 9 Dec 14:29]
|
Rejoining the European Union tomorrow would be daft, we are at a complete disadvantage to gain anything like the favourable terms we enjoyed prior to the vote to leave. If there is to be a new union with continental Europe (and, of course, the island of Ireland...and those Mediterranean islands we share some significant history with, Cyprus and Malta) then the approach road will be long and probably dependent upon a revision of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.
So we have to make redoubled efforts to improve trade relations within the Commonwealth as a substitute. However with, for example, India cosying up to Russia in the recent oil deal that is an even harder road. Stability in our domestic affairs is paramount in an increasingly unstable World. |  |
| |
| Brexit damaged the economy: copyright Kemi Badenoch on 15:44 - Dec 9 with 100 views | DJR |
I wasn't on here during Brexit and hadn't realised my slightly tongue-in-cheek post would reignite things.
But let's not forget the huge role that population growth has played in UK GDP growth, and population growth has been at its highest level ever since 2020.
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/britains-economic-growth-has
"The UK’s middle-of-the-pack record on economic growth since 2010 has been flattered by the population growing by six million people.
Looking at GDP per capita, which accounts for population growth, the UK’s overall and relative performance is far worse. GDP per capita has grown by a mere 4.3 per cent over the past 16 years in total, compared to 46 per cent in the 16 years prior to this.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/trendsinukrealgd
"The rate of increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) per head has slowed in recent years as the population has increased at a faster rate than the volume of output produced."
In Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024, real GDP per head was 0.6% below its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic level, while total real GDP was 2.9% above its pre-pandemic levels.
The UK population is estimated to have increased by an average of 1% per year in 2022 and 2023, which reflected higher immigration from non-EU nationals; this was the fastest pace of UK population growth in over 75 years."
By way of illustration, in 2024 GDP growth per capita in the UK was zero, and lower than that of France, Italy and Germany, but the rate of GDP growth in the UK as a whole was 1.1%,
As South Eastern Trains might have put it, it's the wrong sort of growth. [Post edited 9 Dec 16:57]
| | | |
| |
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.
