| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom 20:49 - Oct 15 with 4538 views | gordon |
Might be about to pull the plug on Theresa May with a co-ordinated ultimatum, then resignation tomorrow.
The Conservative party have played an absolute blinder from Dave's decision to throw a referendum without considering that he might lose, through to Theresa's continued mutually inconsistent promises, fudges and 'we'll iron that out at the next meeting' approach. |  | | |  |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:51 - Oct 15 with 3257 views | Swansea_Blue |
I'd be surprised if they have the guts tbh |  |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:53 - Oct 15 with 3243 views | gordon |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:51 - Oct 15 by Swansea_Blue |
I'd be surprised if they have the guts tbh |
The real travesty is that Chris Grayling never sees fit to do the decent thing. | | | |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:53 - Oct 15 with 3241 views | StokieBlue |
Well after today's backstop to the backstop speech I wouldn't say that's very surprising.
Omnishambles.
Unfortunately JC didn't do much better, was even ripped up by Boris of all people in the subsequent questions.
SB |  |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:57 - Oct 15 with 3224 views | GlasgowBlue |
Losing three cabinet minsters would be a blow to her authority but unless there is a leadership challenge then sh'ell simply limp on.
Three sounds a lot but remember Blair lost 4 cabinet ministers over Iraq and carried on. |  |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:57 - Oct 15 with 3228 views | Guthrum |
What good will it do them? None are viable candidates for leader themselves (plus whoever starts the process rarely ends up with the prize). And the country aren't going to be impressed with anyone forcing the distraction of a leadership contest (especially for personal or factional reasons) at a time like this. |  |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:58 - Oct 15 with 3215 views | StokieBlue |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:57 - Oct 15 by GlasgowBlue |
Losing three cabinet minsters would be a blow to her authority but unless there is a leadership challenge then sh'ell simply limp on.
Three sounds a lot but remember Blair lost 4 cabinet ministers over Iraq and carried on. |
He didn't have a whole host of letters already sent in against him sitting in the relevant top drawer though.
Won't happen but today's speech was totally rubbish.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:00 - Oct 15 with 3211 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:57 - Oct 15 by Guthrum |
What good will it do them? None are viable candidates for leader themselves (plus whoever starts the process rarely ends up with the prize). And the country aren't going to be impressed with anyone forcing the distraction of a leadership contest (especially for personal or factional reasons) at a time like this. |
This is my take on it for what it's worth
If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... by GlasgowBlue 27 Sep 2018 17:14My thoughts for what they are worth.
There won't be an election unless May makes Chequers a vote of confidence. She may chose to do that in order to frighten those on the left who want an even softer Brexit, and those on the right who want one which is harder, in order to back the deal but I doubt she will do this as she doesn't have the numbers.
Chequers will be voted down, Corbyn will put forward a motion of no confidence in the government and the rebels from each wing or the Tory party will vote to save the government. The DUP, faced with a former IRA sympathisers like John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott taking control of 10 Downing Street, the Treasury, the Home Office, the Ministry of Defence, MI6 and MI6 will also back the government and the Tory administration will survive.
May will gamble, as John Major did over the same issue in 1994 (?), and resign as leader of the Conservative party whilst staying in the role of Prime Minister. Boris will decide whether or not he has enough support in the parliamentary party to make the final two candidates which then go to the members to vote. He will know, frustratingly for him, that if he makes the final two he will probably win the leadership and become Prime Minister by Christmas, but will conclude that he simply doesn't have the support from his Parliamentary colleagues so will bottle standing against her.
Unless a stalking horse puts his or her head above the parapet May will remain unchallenged and continue as leader safe in the knowledge that there cannot be another challenge for a calendar year.
As I say, these are my own thoughts. I also predicted that the Tories would win a 100+ majority at the election so what do I know?
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:00 - Oct 15 with 3202 views | giant_stow |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:53 - Oct 15 by StokieBlue |
Well after today's backstop to the backstop speech I wouldn't say that's very surprising.
Omnishambles.
Unfortunately JC didn't do much better, was even ripped up by Boris of all people in the subsequent questions.
SB |
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/15/theresa-may-brexit-norway-
Norway anybody? I know everyone really adores polly, but I reckon that's largely bang on. |  |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:03 - Oct 15 with 3188 views | StokieBlue |
Norway are subject to all the rules of the single market with no say at all.
It's not going to fly with the brexiteers.
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:07 - Oct 15 with 3174 views | gordon |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:51 - Oct 15 by Swansea_Blue |
I'd be surprised if they have the guts tbh |
The parliamentary arithmetic for the final deal vote is so unfavourable that if those three were to leave the cabinet to join those planning to vote against the Gov, it would be the final nail in May's current plan, whatever the current plan is. That would move things closer to one of a second referendum, a crash out scenario, or a General Election and a hung parliament.
I think they'll gamble, they're definitely thick enough, and the time for choosing the safe, boring option is long passed. Either way, we're about to enter a whole new world of self-mutilation. | | | |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:15 - Oct 15 with 3156 views | Keno |
is this the answer to the question "whats the worse lesbian porn movie lineup you can think of'? |  |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:19 - Oct 15 with 3144 views | gordon |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:00 - Oct 15 by GlasgowBlue |
This is my take on it for what it's worth
If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... by GlasgowBlue 27 Sep 2018 17:14My thoughts for what they are worth.
There won't be an election unless May makes Chequers a vote of confidence. She may chose to do that in order to frighten those on the left who want an even softer Brexit, and those on the right who want one which is harder, in order to back the deal but I doubt she will do this as she doesn't have the numbers.
Chequers will be voted down, Corbyn will put forward a motion of no confidence in the government and the rebels from each wing or the Tory party will vote to save the government. The DUP, faced with a former IRA sympathisers like John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott taking control of 10 Downing Street, the Treasury, the Home Office, the Ministry of Defence, MI6 and MI6 will also back the government and the Tory administration will survive.
May will gamble, as John Major did over the same issue in 1994 (?), and resign as leader of the Conservative party whilst staying in the role of Prime Minister. Boris will decide whether or not he has enough support in the parliamentary party to make the final two candidates which then go to the members to vote. He will know, frustratingly for him, that if he makes the final two he will probably win the leadership and become Prime Minister by Christmas, but will conclude that he simply doesn't have the support from his Parliamentary colleagues so will bottle standing against her.
Unless a stalking horse puts his or her head above the parapet May will remain unchallenged and continue as leader safe in the knowledge that there cannot be another challenge for a calendar year.
As I say, these are my own thoughts. I also predicted that the Tories would win a 100+ majority at the election so what do I know?
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My reckoning is that May can't survive after either abandoning or having Chequers voted down, and one or the other would become inevitable with 3 more resignations. She might not resign but will be challenged from within the party as soon as it becomes clear that she can't get anything through parliament (or agreed with the EU). Think Boris is probably irrelevant now, the initial challenge will by someone like Javid, Patel or Mordaunt (or another of similar ilk) who would be able to get wider support in the parliamentary party but also beat May with the members.. | | | |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:20 - Oct 15 with 3130 views | gordon |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:57 - Oct 15 by Guthrum |
What good will it do them? None are viable candidates for leader themselves (plus whoever starts the process rarely ends up with the prize). And the country aren't going to be impressed with anyone forcing the distraction of a leadership contest (especially for personal or factional reasons) at a time like this. |
3 cabinet resignations would mean three more definite votes against the Chequers deal, making it significantly harder to get it through parliament. | | | |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:23 - Oct 15 with 3121 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:19 - Oct 15 by gordon |
My reckoning is that May can't survive after either abandoning or having Chequers voted down, and one or the other would become inevitable with 3 more resignations. She might not resign but will be challenged from within the party as soon as it becomes clear that she can't get anything through parliament (or agreed with the EU). Think Boris is probably irrelevant now, the initial challenge will by someone like Javid, Patel or Mordaunt (or another of similar ilk) who would be able to get wider support in the parliamentary party but also beat May with the members.. |
May would never get to the position of a vote going to the members.
If there was a leadership election then the person who puts himself or herself forward would be a stalking horse.
I think Jeremy Hunt is going to come through the middle. Although Javid is May's prefered successor as Major was Thatcher's. [Post edited 15 Oct 2018 21:24]
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:25 - Oct 15 with 3118 views | sparks |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:19 - Oct 15 by gordon |
My reckoning is that May can't survive after either abandoning or having Chequers voted down, and one or the other would become inevitable with 3 more resignations. She might not resign but will be challenged from within the party as soon as it becomes clear that she can't get anything through parliament (or agreed with the EU). Think Boris is probably irrelevant now, the initial challenge will by someone like Javid, Patel or Mordaunt (or another of similar ilk) who would be able to get wider support in the parliamentary party but also beat May with the members.. |
The issue here is not May or Boris or anyone else.
The proposition of Brexit appears impossible to achieve without some as yet unimagined solution about the irish border.
It really wasnt highlighted at the time of the referendum. But its a virtual impossibility. |  |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:34 - Oct 15 with 3096 views | gordon |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:23 - Oct 15 by GlasgowBlue |
May would never get to the position of a vote going to the members.
If there was a leadership election then the person who puts himself or herself forward would be a stalking horse.
I think Jeremy Hunt is going to come through the middle. Although Javid is May's prefered successor as Major was Thatcher's. [Post edited 15 Oct 2018 21:24]
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Good point, sorry, obviously she wouldn't stand in subsequent leadership election. I think it's pretty much certain now that May is going to be replaced, there was precious little support for her approach in her own party today. Will be interesting to see what arguments the prospective leadership candidates would make on the negotiation, whether any of the candidates offered a second referendum as an opt out, or whether they just went with the Corbyn 'I'd negotiate it better' approach. | | | |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:34 - Oct 15 with 3096 views | Keno |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:25 - Oct 15 by sparks |
The issue here is not May or Boris or anyone else.
The proposition of Brexit appears impossible to achieve without some as yet unimagined solution about the irish border.
It really wasnt highlighted at the time of the referendum. But its a virtual impossibility. |
Did you see Patrick Kielty's twitter comments on this?
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Patrick Kielty Retweeted Boris Johnson
Dear @BorisJohnson,
There is no better Brexit when it comes to the Good Friday Agreement and Northern Ireland. As you still seem bamboozled by all this Paddywackery here’s a few pointers for your next stab in the dark -
Patrick Kielty added,
Boris Johnson
Verified account
@BorisJohnson
My plan for a better Brexit
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/27/boris-johnson-plan-better-brexit …
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1. Northern Ireland is made up of a majority of Unionists (as in the Conservative and Unionist Party) and, believe it or not, a rather large minority of Nationalists (as in Irish Nationalists)
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2. These Irish Nationalists don’t see themselves as British but rather inconveniently as Irish (who knew?)
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3. For over 30 years we killed each other because of these differences which means Northern Ireland is nothing like Camden or Westminster.
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4. The Good Friday Agreement ended that violence by the following devious magic -
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Unionists were guaranteed that Northern Ireland would be part of the UK until the majority voted otherwise.
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The Irish was border was removed and the island linked so Nationalists could pretend they were already living in a United Ireland (yes, Tony Blair did slight of hand much better than you)
11:10 PM - 28 Sep 2018
782 Retweets 6,736 Likes Steven Dive CChem MRSC #FBPE #rEUnion #ABTVEmily CollinsJane Weston #FBPEColin Tassell#FBPESimon Whale â„¢BusiLoren GrantGEEKchocolateAlice Charles
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KenTweet text
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5. Some of these Nationalists then accepted being part of the UK as their day to day lives were essentially Irish.
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6. This cunning plan was sold to us on the basis that we were all part of the EU therefore fixation on nationality was so last World War.
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7. Implementing the Good Friday Agreement was torturous (think Brexit with actual bombs, not metaphorical suicide vests) but we finally made peace. Yet 20 years later NI remains a divided society.
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8. Thanks to your glorious Brexit vision Northern Ireland will become more divided as some form of economic border checks will become part of daily lives.
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9. If those checks take place between NI and Ireland, the Nationalists who were once happy being part of the UK will change their mind.
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10. If they take place in the Irish Sea some Unionists will be livid. However they'll still support being part of the UK (the clue is in the Unionist bit)
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11. Your Brexit lies have opened a Pandora’s box for Northern Ireland. It's one reason why the majority of people in NI voted to remain in the EU (almost as if they knew more about the fragile equilibrium of their politics than you)
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12. Barely mentioned before Brexit, a border poll is now inevitable thanks to your monumental ignorance.
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13. When that poll is eventually held the Nationalists who were once content being part of a Northern Ireland within the UK and EU will vote to leave the UK to feel as Irish and European as they did before Brexit.
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14. The poll will be much closer thanks to your Brexit folly and could easily be lost by Unionists, breaking up the UK.
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15. Any break up of the Union will be your fault (a tad inconvenient as a member of the Conservative and er, Unionist party)
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16. The EU is not responsible for your blundering lack of foresight. Like most people in Northern Ireland they were happy with the status quo.
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17. By the time the penny drops that you can’t preserve the Union you want without the one you don’t, it will be too late.
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18. You will be remembered not as the Churchillian visionary you delude yourself to be but the ignoramus who triggered the break up of the UK.
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19. If there’s any justice all this will come to pass when you're Prime Minister so you can finally swim in the constitutional sewage you've created (though we all know you’ll be in Nice with your trotters up)
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20. Meantime, if you’re so concerned about keeping Northern Ireland totally aligned with the rest of the UK where’s your support for our same sex marriage and women’s right to choose? Your silence is deafening. [Post edited 15 Oct 2018 21:37]
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:36 - Oct 15 with 3088 views | gordon |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:25 - Oct 15 by sparks |
The issue here is not May or Boris or anyone else.
The proposition of Brexit appears impossible to achieve without some as yet unimagined solution about the irish border.
It really wasnt highlighted at the time of the referendum. But its a virtual impossibility. |
There were people talking about it before the referendum, to be fair:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-36587809 | | | |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:39 - Oct 15 with 3077 views | Guthrum |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:20 - Oct 15 by gordon |
3 cabinet resignations would mean three more definite votes against the Chequers deal, making it significantly harder to get it through parliament. |
The Chequers deal is highly unlikely to get through Parliament short of some miraculous divine intervention. The Hard Brexiteers don't like it (too soft), the Hard Remainers don't like it (involves Brexit), a lot of the moderates don't like it (a host of technical reasons), Labour and the LibDems don't like it (could preserve the Tory government), the DUP don't like it (issues with the Irish border). Even with a three-line whip, there are likely to be enough hardcore rebels to tip the balance.
Crucially, the EU also does not like it, so there is unlikely to be a genuine deal which can be voted on. | |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:48 - Oct 15 with 3039 views | sparks |
It wasnt really highlighted.
Turns out it is one of the biggest problems. | |
| The presence of those seeking the truth is infinitely to be preferred to the presence of those who think they've found it.
(Sir Terry Pratchett) | | Poll: | Is Fred drunk this morning? |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:50 - Oct 15 with 3021 views | Guthrum |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:00 - Oct 15 by GlasgowBlue |
This is my take on it for what it's worth
If you want the softest possible Brexit, vote Labour.... by GlasgowBlue 27 Sep 2018 17:14My thoughts for what they are worth.
There won't be an election unless May makes Chequers a vote of confidence. She may chose to do that in order to frighten those on the left who want an even softer Brexit, and those on the right who want one which is harder, in order to back the deal but I doubt she will do this as she doesn't have the numbers.
Chequers will be voted down, Corbyn will put forward a motion of no confidence in the government and the rebels from each wing or the Tory party will vote to save the government. The DUP, faced with a former IRA sympathisers like John McDonnell, Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott taking control of 10 Downing Street, the Treasury, the Home Office, the Ministry of Defence, MI6 and MI6 will also back the government and the Tory administration will survive.
May will gamble, as John Major did over the same issue in 1994 (?), and resign as leader of the Conservative party whilst staying in the role of Prime Minister. Boris will decide whether or not he has enough support in the parliamentary party to make the final two candidates which then go to the members to vote. He will know, frustratingly for him, that if he makes the final two he will probably win the leadership and become Prime Minister by Christmas, but will conclude that he simply doesn't have the support from his Parliamentary colleagues so will bottle standing against her.
Unless a stalking horse puts his or her head above the parapet May will remain unchallenged and continue as leader safe in the knowledge that there cannot be another challenge for a calendar year.
As I say, these are my own thoughts. I also predicted that the Tories would win a 100+ majority at the election so what do I know?
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That's a pretty good prediction of what may happen. | |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:53 - Oct 15 with 3007 views | Guthrum |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:58 - Oct 15 by StokieBlue |
He didn't have a whole host of letters already sent in against him sitting in the relevant top drawer though.
Won't happen but today's speech was totally rubbish.
SB |
I'm not sure there are as many actual letters as some of the more prominent rebels are trying to suggest. | |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:59 - Oct 15 with 2979 views | connorscontract |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:57 - Oct 15 by GlasgowBlue |
Losing three cabinet minsters would be a blow to her authority but unless there is a leadership challenge then sh'ell simply limp on.
Three sounds a lot but remember Blair lost 4 cabinet ministers over Iraq and carried on. |
Blimey, talk about spin!
"Blair lost 4 over Iraq." Lol!
May has already lost how many over Brexit? You have heard of Boris Johnson and David Davis, right? We're not talking about 3 resignations, we're talking about ANOTHER three resignations.
Oh, and as well as the resignations, let's not forget Jane Ellison, Gavin Barwell, Rob Wilson and Nicola Blackwood as Conservative Ministers who May lost in her vanity General Election.
Spin away, though, Glassers. |  | | |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 22:05 - Oct 15 with 2953 views | Swansea_Blue |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 20:53 - Oct 15 by gordon |
The real travesty is that Chris Grayling never sees fit to do the decent thing. |
Realise that, at the very best, he's only useful for plucking chickens? | |
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| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 22:27 - Oct 15 with 2917 views | connorscontract |
| Penny Mordaunt, Esther McVey and Andrea Leadsom on 21:25 - Oct 15 by sparks |
The issue here is not May or Boris or anyone else.
The proposition of Brexit appears impossible to achieve without some as yet unimagined solution about the irish border.
It really wasnt highlighted at the time of the referendum. But its a virtual impossibility. |
It's been highlighted on here by me. Consistently.
Even if there were to be a solution, it couldn't possibly lead to "taking back control of our borders" because the British Government is in a legally binding bilateral agreement to maintain an open border with Eire.
For any meaningful Brexit to take place, Parliament will have to withdraw the UK from the Good Friday Agreement. Which risks the Northern Ireland Peace Process.
I've been asking Brexit voters for well over a year, since the post-Snap Election deal with the DUP:
DId you know that the British Government breaking the central agreement of the Peace process is a requirement of a Hard Brexit, and a risk of a return to violence in Northern Ireland is a possible consequence of your vote to Leave, and if so, do you think it is a price worth paying? | | | |
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