| Prophecy of Zed 09:12 - Mar 22 with 3426 views | ZedRodgers |
Option 1:
May's deal isn't brought back. People (including the press for some reason) seem to be pretending the Bercow thing didn't happen.
12th April approaches. HoC start arguing about EU elections and a further extension, but the house fails in attempting to bring the length of the potential further extension request out of May's hands and in parliament's control.
Revocation gains traction. W/C 8th April becomes a stare down between no deal or revocation due to May's refusal to face reality with the longer extension (making it too conditional or centring it around her deal). The 450 MPs who voted to remain do away with their 'respect the result of the referendum' when faced with the question of revoke or no deal. The petition by this point has reached many millions and has given those 450 MPs the confidence to go with it.
HoC votes to revoke Article 50. A night of celebration and bitterness. Deranged gloating and complaining by people on both sides. May resigns after unmitigated failure at every promise she made. General Election.
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Option 2:
May's deal is brought back. Either via a meaningful (lol) tweak to the WA or through some kind of parliamentary decision to go against the convention Bercow set out. Deal is either voted down or amended to include a people's vote.
If voted down, see second paragraph of Option 1.
If amended to include people's vote, the nation choose to remain over May's deal. The same deranged gloating and complaining follows.
Disclaimer: Two weeks ago, I would not have expected or even wanted Brexit to be abruptly cancelled in a way which opened a can of worms. The course that May has taken and the absolute state of her speech has resulted in a change in the wind. The can of worms is now a justifiable consequence - A can that both a majority of the public and HoC are prepared to open (in my opinion). |  |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 09:16 - Mar 22 with 2745 views | giant_stow |
Good reading, ta.
One question I have is does she have to stick to the extension at all, especially if she judges she'll be forced out? Is the law that we leave on the 29th going to be changed basically? |  |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 09:18 - Mar 22 with 2739 views | Binner |
I would imagine that changing the date of Brexit to one yet to be finally decided constitutes a "substantial change" (or so they will say). |  |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 10:21 - Mar 22 with 2662 views | GeoffSentence |
I can't see brexit being revoked without a second referendum.
If the HoC revoke it without going back to the people there will be too many people up in arms. There will be disorder. |  |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 10:44 - Mar 22 with 2642 views | Pinewoodblue |
| Prophecy of Zed on 09:16 - Mar 22 by giant_stow |
Good reading, ta.
One question I have is does she have to stick to the extension at all, especially if she judges she'll be forced out? Is the law that we leave on the 29th going to be changed basically? |
Parliament has to change the law before next Friday, and it has to receive royal assent, otherwise the default position is we leave the EU at 11pm one week today. |  |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 10:56 - Mar 22 with 2631 views | giant_stow |
| Prophecy of Zed on 10:44 - Mar 22 by Pinewoodblue |
Parliament has to change the law before next Friday, and it has to receive royal assent, otherwise the default position is we leave the EU at 11pm one week today. |
Ta mr pinewood. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 11:29 - Mar 22 with 2592 views | ZedRodgers |
| Prophecy of Zed on 10:44 - Mar 22 by Pinewoodblue |
Parliament has to change the law before next Friday, and it has to receive royal assent, otherwise the default position is we leave the EU at 11pm one week today. |
Sorry giant_ullaa, I was mowing my lawn.
In reality it would just need to go through the Commons and Lords. It almost certainly would.
Royal assent is the final stage of the process but that hasn't blocked anything for about 300 years. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 11:30 - Mar 22 with 2588 views | wkj |
| Prophecy of Zed on 11:29 - Mar 22 by ZedRodgers |
Sorry giant_ullaa, I was mowing my lawn.
In reality it would just need to go through the Commons and Lords. It almost certainly would.
Royal assent is the final stage of the process but that hasn't blocked anything for about 300 years. |
And by Mowing your lawn, you mean shaving your chest |  |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 11:32 - Mar 22 with 2577 views | ZedRodgers |
| Prophecy of Zed on 09:18 - Mar 22 by Binner |
I would imagine that changing the date of Brexit to one yet to be finally decided constitutes a "substantial change" (or so they will say). |
The ball would be in Mr. Bercow's court on that. Unclear at the moment, but I would guess that the date being slightly different would not change the substance of it enough for him to allow it. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 11:32 - Mar 22 with 2575 views | ZedRodgers |
| Prophecy of Zed on 11:30 - Mar 22 by wkj |
And by Mowing your lawn, you mean shaving your chest |
Yes. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 11:38 - Mar 22 with 2563 views | Herbivore |
I still think we're leaving, although it looks unlikely right now I still think the threat of a long delay or remaining will get the DUP and ERG onside. May will agree to stand down once we've left in May so a new leader can take us through negotiations. The DUP will be given a nice, fat brown envelope to ease things along. |  |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 11:43 - Mar 22 with 2552 views | ZedRodgers |
| Prophecy of Zed on 10:21 - Mar 22 by GeoffSentence |
I can't see brexit being revoked without a second referendum.
If the HoC revoke it without going back to the people there will be too many people up in arms. There will be disorder. |
The tide will have turned by then. The failure will no longer be able to be masked as betrayal. HoC will revoke over leaving without a deal. It's almost a certainty.
I'm talking about a scenario where a second referendum is not possible due to the time remaining before 12th April - With a longer extension EU elections not agreed upon. A second referendum doesn't come into it at that point. It's no deal or revoke. They will revoke.
Of course there is the possibility for an extension beyond May 22nd that doesn't require us to take part in the EU elections. We would simply have to request to not take part in the elections, but promise to host a 'catch-up' election if we decide to remain. I didn't set this out in my prophecy but it is is entirely possible. Would just need EU member states approval. Seems more unlikely than likely, hence it's omission from my prophecy. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 11:50 - Mar 22 with 2533 views | ZedRodgers |
| Prophecy of Zed on 11:38 - Mar 22 by Herbivore |
I still think we're leaving, although it looks unlikely right now I still think the threat of a long delay or remaining will get the DUP and ERG onside. May will agree to stand down once we've left in May so a new leader can take us through negotiations. The DUP will be given a nice, fat brown envelope to ease things along. |
Not necessarily. The ERG and DUP equate to 80 votes. That would just about sway it in May's favour as things stand but there are many other remainer-at-heart MPs who would ditch the 'respect the result of the referendum' thing when faced with no deal or revoke. It's a 400/200 split at the least. We have reached the point where the threat of no deal is more likely to result in revocation than accepting May's deal. The affront of her speech blaming the very people that she needs will only have turned the tide against her further. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 11:52 - Mar 22 with 2523 views | Oldsmoker |
| Prophecy of Zed on 10:21 - Mar 22 by GeoffSentence |
I can't see brexit being revoked without a second referendum.
If the HoC revoke it without going back to the people there will be too many people up in arms. There will be disorder. |
Yes Geoff there could be some disorder.
Farages Leave march from Sunderland (50 odd people) compared to Saturdays Peopls vote protest might give an indication of how much.
The Leave voters I know simply don't care anymore and they would argue in the pubs and on social media but not "take to the streets". |  |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 11:53 - Mar 22 with 2523 views | Herbivore |
| Prophecy of Zed on 11:50 - Mar 22 by ZedRodgers |
Not necessarily. The ERG and DUP equate to 80 votes. That would just about sway it in May's favour as things stand but there are many other remainer-at-heart MPs who would ditch the 'respect the result of the referendum' thing when faced with no deal or revoke. It's a 400/200 split at the least. We have reached the point where the threat of no deal is more likely to result in revocation than accepting May's deal. The affront of her speech blaming the very people that she needs will only have turned the tide against her further. |
I hope you're right, I really do. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 11:54 - Mar 22 with 2516 views | BloomBlue |
| Prophecy of Zed on 11:50 - Mar 22 by ZedRodgers |
Not necessarily. The ERG and DUP equate to 80 votes. That would just about sway it in May's favour as things stand but there are many other remainer-at-heart MPs who would ditch the 'respect the result of the referendum' thing when faced with no deal or revoke. It's a 400/200 split at the least. We have reached the point where the threat of no deal is more likely to result in revocation than accepting May's deal. The affront of her speech blaming the very people that she needs will only have turned the tide against her further. |
And Zed this is a question not a pushback. Does your figures include Labour MPs who will vote in favour of leaving? There are a lot in constituencies who voted leave, not sure they will vote for revoke. |  | | |
| Prophecy of Zed on 11:58 - Mar 22 with 2501 views | Oldsmoker |
| Prophecy of Zed on 10:44 - Mar 22 by Pinewoodblue |
Parliament has to change the law before next Friday, and it has to receive royal assent, otherwise the default position is we leave the EU at 11pm one week today. |
She could accept the extension by using a Statutory instrument. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 11:58 - Mar 22 with 2501 views | GeoffSentence |
| Prophecy of Zed on 11:52 - Mar 22 by Oldsmoker |
Yes Geoff there could be some disorder.
Farages Leave march from Sunderland (50 odd people) compared to Saturdays Peopls vote protest might give an indication of how much.
The Leave voters I know simply don't care anymore and they would argue in the pubs and on social media but not "take to the streets". |
I fear that it could give nutjobs like that fellow who shot Jo Cox the sense of entitlement that would lead to similar acts.
There might not be large scale disorder, but I fear there could be some serious trouble. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 12:02 - Mar 22 with 2486 views | ZedRodgers |
| Prophecy of Zed on 11:54 - Mar 22 by BloomBlue |
And Zed this is a question not a pushback. Does your figures include Labour MPs who will vote in favour of leaving? There are a lot in constituencies who voted leave, not sure they will vote for revoke. |
Yes, the 400/200 split in favour of revocation I'm anticipating would obviously include Labour MPs.
I appreciate you are staunching unwilling imagine the tide turning, but it is.
The blue passport dream has failed Mr. Bloom. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 12:02 - Mar 22 with 2485 views | Oldsmoker |
| Prophecy of Zed on 11:58 - Mar 22 by GeoffSentence |
I fear that it could give nutjobs like that fellow who shot Jo Cox the sense of entitlement that would lead to similar acts.
There might not be large scale disorder, but I fear there could be some serious trouble. |
We all know there's always one - and that one could become headline news for a day so I wouldn't rule it out but I don't see mass disorder that would require Martial Law, the army on the streets or anything like that. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 12:08 - Mar 22 with 2475 views | ZedRodgers |
| Prophecy of Zed on 11:58 - Mar 22 by GeoffSentence |
I fear that it could give nutjobs like that fellow who shot Jo Cox the sense of entitlement that would lead to similar acts.
There might not be large scale disorder, but I fear there could be some serious trouble. |
A remain-leaning MP was attacked in the street yesterday as a direct result of our government's approach to this. As you have pointed out, a life has already been lost. Can it get much worse than somebody being murdered?
I don't understand how you can acknowledge that somebody has already been killed but at the same suggest that there 'could be' serious trouble to come.
Putting this whole episode behind us would detoxify this atmosphere, not make it worse. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 12:16 - Mar 22 with 2459 views | GeoffSentence |
| Prophecy of Zed on 12:08 - Mar 22 by ZedRodgers |
A remain-leaning MP was attacked in the street yesterday as a direct result of our government's approach to this. As you have pointed out, a life has already been lost. Can it get much worse than somebody being murdered?
I don't understand how you can acknowledge that somebody has already been killed but at the same suggest that there 'could be' serious trouble to come.
Putting this whole episode behind us would detoxify this atmosphere, not make it worse. |
Sorry Zed, I don't get this point:
"I don't understand how you can acknowledge that somebody has already been killed but at the same suggest that there 'could be' serious trouble to come"
What don't you understand? That there has been a murder in the past related to this only makes it more likely that there will be similar in the future.
Why can't I acknowledge the murder and expect serious trouble in the future? The idea that I can't makes no sense. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 12:30 - Mar 22 with 2441 views | ZedRodgers |
| Prophecy of Zed on 12:16 - Mar 22 by GeoffSentence |
Sorry Zed, I don't get this point:
"I don't understand how you can acknowledge that somebody has already been killed but at the same suggest that there 'could be' serious trouble to come"
What don't you understand? That there has been a murder in the past related to this only makes it more likely that there will be similar in the future.
Why can't I acknowledge the murder and expect serious trouble in the future? The idea that I can't makes no sense. |
I'm not saying something awful is beyond the realms of possibility, but I don't think it's right to expect it. It gives me an unnerving sense of it being spoken into existence.
It just seems to me that the fear of the level of toxicity increasing if we remain undermines the extremity we have already seen of an MP being murdered.
Moving on from Brexit in one way or another should not bring fear of that being repeated. It should relieve us from it. | |
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| Prophecy of Zed on 12:33 - Mar 22 with 2432 views | XYZ |
| Prophecy of Zed on 11:58 - Mar 22 by GeoffSentence |
I fear that it could give nutjobs like that fellow who shot Jo Cox the sense of entitlement that would lead to similar acts.
There might not be large scale disorder, but I fear there could be some serious trouble. |
I thought we never surrendered to terrorists?
Do the right thing. Deal with the consequences. Respect the rule of law and start enforcing it again.
Then hold a Mueller style enquiry and reveal who's been doing what. |  | | |
| Prophecy of Zed on 12:39 - Mar 22 with 2401 views | BloomBlue |
| Prophecy of Zed on 12:02 - Mar 22 by ZedRodgers |
Yes, the 400/200 split in favour of revocation I'm anticipating would obviously include Labour MPs.
I appreciate you are staunching unwilling imagine the tide turning, but it is.
The blue passport dream has failed Mr. Bloom. |
Thanks Zed
But we will see...... | | | |
| Prophecy of Zed on 12:42 - Mar 22 with 2388 views | xrayspecs |
| Prophecy of Zed on 11:43 - Mar 22 by ZedRodgers |
The tide will have turned by then. The failure will no longer be able to be masked as betrayal. HoC will revoke over leaving without a deal. It's almost a certainty.
I'm talking about a scenario where a second referendum is not possible due to the time remaining before 12th April - With a longer extension EU elections not agreed upon. A second referendum doesn't come into it at that point. It's no deal or revoke. They will revoke.
Of course there is the possibility for an extension beyond May 22nd that doesn't require us to take part in the EU elections. We would simply have to request to not take part in the elections, but promise to host a 'catch-up' election if we decide to remain. I didn't set this out in my prophecy but it is is entirely possible. Would just need EU member states approval. Seems more unlikely than likely, hence it's omission from my prophecy. |
The seats the UK are giving up in the EP have been allocated to other countries. EP need to know if we are holding elections or not. We cannot catch up later. | | | |
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