| 2 million people march, in peace 01:45 - Jun 17 with 3469 views | Hong_Kong_Bluey |
In case there is interest, I feel driven to write something.................
Living here for almost 30 years, I have seen a lot of changes in Hong Kong. But what is happening right now is more powerful than anything i've ever seen in the past.
The 2014 occupy protest was glorious in it's ambition, serene in it's peacefulness, surreal to anybody who experienced it, but ultimately did not change anything.
The people of this great city knew they were at a crossroads. With 2047 closing in, and Beijing tightening its invisible grip, they had to get the message through that they cannot accept their freedom being diminished. The extradition law was just the tip of the iceberg, with much more driving this from below.
A week ago last Sunday, 1 million people marched. At midnight when the right to protest had expired, the police moved in to clear the tens of thousands of protesters who had stayed after the march to gather around government HQ.
Pepper spray and tear gas was used on more than one occasion in the last week to clear peaceful protesters.
All this did was bring more people out.
On Wednesday before the vote on the extradition bill, students went to the government HQ and locked down the centre of Hong Kong once again with sheer numbers. They were once again cleared, which increased the peoples resolve even more.
On Friday Carrie Lam announced the suspension of the extradition bill. But the people still marched yesterday in even higher numbers than the previous week. Because she did not sound sincere, nobody trusts her, and everybody believes she is a Beijing puppet.
2 million people! We only have around 8m living here. A march for freedom, for our independent judiciary, for police to stop hurting it's own people. A march for the future generations, and for the survival of this incredibly free and wonderful city.
Unity. Love. Humanity. Peace.
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 07:20 - Jun 17 with 3363 views | Kropotkin123 |
Having lived in South Korea when they kicked out Park Geunhye, I see many similarities between the two. How it is building from the bottom, how it is starting with no natural leaders, how all ages are protesting, the amount of people coming onto the streets, the potential for it to escalate.
But there are many things that are different too. China ultimately still holds all the cards at this moment. They will choose who is elected next, if you kick out Lam. And it seems like 47 is like a tide coming in, with bigger and bigger waves.
What is the feeling on the streets. Do people actually feel like they can preserve their freedoms in the long run? |  |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 07:29 - Jun 17 with 3347 views | TractorWood |
Awesome. It's a cracking city. Agree about Carrie Lam. Her gushing apology after weeks of defiance makes her look ridiculous. She's a puppet for the mainland as you say. |  |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:06 - Jun 17 with 3311 views | Steve_M |
It's wonderfully inspiring, don't think the Chinese state dare close this down with their usual methods in Hong Kong.
No doubt this will be shortly be claimed as US influence by those who usually deny local populations agency. |  |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:11 - Jun 17 with 3299 views | chicoazul |
An excellent post. China is a very sinister despotism and will soon once again be the world's largest economy, and already owns half of Africa. We will need to tread very carefully around them once the Brexit madness is over. |  |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:14 - Jun 17 with 3291 views | Hong_Kong_Bluey |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 07:20 - Jun 17 by Kropotkin123 |
Having lived in South Korea when they kicked out Park Geunhye, I see many similarities between the two. How it is building from the bottom, how it is starting with no natural leaders, how all ages are protesting, the amount of people coming onto the streets, the potential for it to escalate.
But there are many things that are different too. China ultimately still holds all the cards at this moment. They will choose who is elected next, if you kick out Lam. And it seems like 47 is like a tide coming in, with bigger and bigger waves.
What is the feeling on the streets. Do people actually feel like they can preserve their freedoms in the long run? |
The general consensus about the future is one of realism. Most HK'ers have no problem with being a part of China, and if one country two systems work, then they're happy to work with this.
But with each removal of basic rights, more and more people are standing up. Nobody is asking to be independent. HK'ers are all Chinese and they know that, they even want it. But once you've given people freedom, to take it away is the worst offence. I know it's ironic coming from a regime where clearly the British ruled as colonists, but this also shows how people do not mind this type of authoritarian rule, as long as they are free within it.
All we want is the same as we have now. Even the undemocratic voting system which caused the 2014 protests can be somehow accepted. But you see what happens when a new puppet is elected, and they try to make laws which removes freedom and hands over power to China.
What's most interesting about this was the age range of participants. We can safely say that 2014 was mainly students and the young, as the old were wise to know they need to choose their battles. This was a battle everybody believed in, young and old, and as the demographic changes over the next 25 years, so will the desire to stay free.
For what it's worth, my view is one country two systems will eventually work. The China government are no fools. They will try to gain more of a grip, but they know they need a free Hong Kong to be a place in China which can be trusted financially and judicially. They need Hong Kong to stay free as much as we want it. But there will be a lot of tests between now and then to find the right balance. | | | |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:45 - Jun 17 with 3250 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:14 - Jun 17 by Hong_Kong_Bluey |
The general consensus about the future is one of realism. Most HK'ers have no problem with being a part of China, and if one country two systems work, then they're happy to work with this.
But with each removal of basic rights, more and more people are standing up. Nobody is asking to be independent. HK'ers are all Chinese and they know that, they even want it. But once you've given people freedom, to take it away is the worst offence. I know it's ironic coming from a regime where clearly the British ruled as colonists, but this also shows how people do not mind this type of authoritarian rule, as long as they are free within it.
All we want is the same as we have now. Even the undemocratic voting system which caused the 2014 protests can be somehow accepted. But you see what happens when a new puppet is elected, and they try to make laws which removes freedom and hands over power to China.
What's most interesting about this was the age range of participants. We can safely say that 2014 was mainly students and the young, as the old were wise to know they need to choose their battles. This was a battle everybody believed in, young and old, and as the demographic changes over the next 25 years, so will the desire to stay free.
For what it's worth, my view is one country two systems will eventually work. The China government are no fools. They will try to gain more of a grip, but they know they need a free Hong Kong to be a place in China which can be trusted financially and judicially. They need Hong Kong to stay free as much as we want it. But there will be a lot of tests between now and then to find the right balance. |
All very interesting, do you have any quick explanations on how the 'puppet' was voted in.
....and Steve I don't think anybody will be levelling this as American influence! |  |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:58 - Jun 17 with 3236 views | StokieBlue |
It's excellent that the people of Hong Kong are taking a stand against China trying to fundamentally change the two systems policy. HK is a great place and I wouldn't want to see it change.
Unfortunately I think it's only a matter of time. The march to 2047 is underway and I see very little that is going to stop the inevitable.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:01 - Jun 17 with 3230 views | unstableblue |
Great post.
I lived in Hong Kong for a number of years pre and post handover. Always felt uncomfortable with the way the UK gave up on this colony, to which we had given so much identity, culture and governing system.
Having been there several times since I left, there is such a strong alienation of HK Chinese and mainland Chinese. They do not share the same values or culture.
I fear Beijing saw Hong Kong as a bridge head into western financial markets, which they would rather shanghai would become; and now Hong Kong is a troublesome city that they want to assimilate into all those other massive Chinese metropolitan areas.
Really hope the strength of protest - keeps the necessary divides in place.
Great place - where do you live?? |  |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:10 - Jun 17 with 3216 views | Kropotkin123 |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:45 - Jun 17 by BanksterDebtSlave |
All very interesting, do you have any quick explanations on how the 'puppet' was voted in.
....and Steve I don't think anybody will be levelling this as American influence! |
Voted in by a committee that has a pro-china majority | |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:21 - Jun 17 with 3198 views | StokieBlue |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:14 - Jun 17 by Hong_Kong_Bluey |
The general consensus about the future is one of realism. Most HK'ers have no problem with being a part of China, and if one country two systems work, then they're happy to work with this.
But with each removal of basic rights, more and more people are standing up. Nobody is asking to be independent. HK'ers are all Chinese and they know that, they even want it. But once you've given people freedom, to take it away is the worst offence. I know it's ironic coming from a regime where clearly the British ruled as colonists, but this also shows how people do not mind this type of authoritarian rule, as long as they are free within it.
All we want is the same as we have now. Even the undemocratic voting system which caused the 2014 protests can be somehow accepted. But you see what happens when a new puppet is elected, and they try to make laws which removes freedom and hands over power to China.
What's most interesting about this was the age range of participants. We can safely say that 2014 was mainly students and the young, as the old were wise to know they need to choose their battles. This was a battle everybody believed in, young and old, and as the demographic changes over the next 25 years, so will the desire to stay free.
For what it's worth, my view is one country two systems will eventually work. The China government are no fools. They will try to gain more of a grip, but they know they need a free Hong Kong to be a place in China which can be trusted financially and judicially. They need Hong Kong to stay free as much as we want it. But there will be a lot of tests between now and then to find the right balance. |
Your last point could indeed be true but the counter would be that protests such as this will be hard to "cover-up" in China due to the easy of movement between HK and the mainland. If they continue then discourse may spread. I am sure there are plenty in China who look at HK and think "they are allowed these freedoms, why aren't we".
So I think it's still up in the air whether the two systems policy will be totally scrapped in 2047. It's still a long way away, it's conceivable Shanghai will be a much more important financial hub in 28 years. We don't really know.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 10:02 - Jun 17 with 3173 views | WeWereZombies |
Apologies, bumped the thread I started yesterday on your protests before I read your, much more informed, post. So here is a bump in return and a wish for every success and I hope you come out of this safely. |  |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 22:54 - Jun 17 with 3066 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:10 - Jun 17 by Kropotkin123 |
Voted in by a committee that has a pro-china majority |
Thanks that would explain her title being Chief Executive. | |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 01:08 - Jun 18 with 3028 views | Sarge |
Were there many people sneering from the sidelines, complaining about how the 2m people should be at work, how do they have the time to protest, maybe some bizarre comment about how they can all afford to have iPhones etc? |  | | |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 02:41 - Jun 18 with 3012 views | Hong_Kong_Bluey |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:01 - Jun 17 by unstableblue |
Great post.
I lived in Hong Kong for a number of years pre and post handover. Always felt uncomfortable with the way the UK gave up on this colony, to which we had given so much identity, culture and governing system.
Having been there several times since I left, there is such a strong alienation of HK Chinese and mainland Chinese. They do not share the same values or culture.
I fear Beijing saw Hong Kong as a bridge head into western financial markets, which they would rather shanghai would become; and now Hong Kong is a troublesome city that they want to assimilate into all those other massive Chinese metropolitan areas.
Really hope the strength of protest - keeps the necessary divides in place.
Great place - where do you live?? |
Hi UB, I've lived up and around the Gold Coast area in Tuen Mun since 97. Prior to that I had 6 years working & living (and just about surviving) Wanchai! | | | |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:08 - Jun 18 with 2960 views | WeWereZombies |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 02:41 - Jun 18 by Hong_Kong_Bluey |
Hi UB, I've lived up and around the Gold Coast area in Tuen Mun since 97. Prior to that I had 6 years working & living (and just about surviving) Wanchai! |
Appreciating your posts on this, perhaps the most important event of the week. How are things over there today? Any news on the Chief Executive being replaced, or the position more reasonably being made one of Mayor or Governor?
On Stokie's point of Shanghai being more of the financial hub by 2047, has this already happened? As a, now retired, accountant I have been hearing a lot about the World's financial centres moving East with London's international dominance over New York in turn being replaced by SIngapore's dominance over London within a five to ten year timescale, and then Shanghai taking over from Singapore but my Anglocentric view never questioned the role of Hong Kong in all this (even though I have met a few people who were ex.pat in Hong Kong for a while over the years). | |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:11 - Jun 18 with 2959 views | SonOfSpock |
and people claim that the British Empire is responsible for a lot of problems. Bet HK wishes they were still associated with us. |  | | |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:14 - Jun 18 with 2954 views | DanTheMan |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:11 - Jun 18 by SonOfSpock |
and people claim that the British Empire is responsible for a lot of problems. Bet HK wishes they were still associated with us. |
I mean, it was responsible for some really bad stuff.
Just because China aren't great doesn't mean the British empire was wonderful. |  |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:37 - Jun 18 with 2944 views | WeWereZombies |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:14 - Jun 18 by DanTheMan |
I mean, it was responsible for some really bad stuff.
Just because China aren't great doesn't mean the British empire was wonderful. |
Although British rule did bring some benefits in terms of a lingua franca, an adminstration that gave order to justice, education, commerce and healthcare that could operate on a global scale. Not that systems of justice and education were not present before colonisation, often with some degree of international co-operation, but Empire made the colonies more relevant...mainly to Empire. I agree that military might also brought rough justice, discrimination and social deprivation where there had been less before colonisation. | |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:55 - Jun 18 with 2927 views | Hong_Kong_Bluey |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:08 - Jun 18 by WeWereZombies |
Appreciating your posts on this, perhaps the most important event of the week. How are things over there today? Any news on the Chief Executive being replaced, or the position more reasonably being made one of Mayor or Governor?
On Stokie's point of Shanghai being more of the financial hub by 2047, has this already happened? As a, now retired, accountant I have been hearing a lot about the World's financial centres moving East with London's international dominance over New York in turn being replaced by SIngapore's dominance over London within a five to ten year timescale, and then Shanghai taking over from Singapore but my Anglocentric view never questioned the role of Hong Kong in all this (even though I have met a few people who were ex.pat in Hong Kong for a while over the years). |
Many good points made from all posters, with not much to disagree with as much of it is talking about the future in 30 years time.
Right now there's no change, it's all very quiet. HK Island is wonderfully devoid of traffic as people stay off the roads, ready for the expected ramping up of protests again tomorrow.
It's unlikely Carrie Lam will step down as Chief Executive, but something will have to give as the people are not letting up. Maybe a time frame (eg 1 year) for the suspension of the extradition bill to get protesters to back away for a while. This could open the door for government to cancel the bill quietly when nobody's watching.
Probably best I don't comment about financial centers as it's not my field of expertise. | | | |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:03 - Jun 18 with 2922 views | StokieBlue |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 08:08 - Jun 18 by WeWereZombies |
Appreciating your posts on this, perhaps the most important event of the week. How are things over there today? Any news on the Chief Executive being replaced, or the position more reasonably being made one of Mayor or Governor?
On Stokie's point of Shanghai being more of the financial hub by 2047, has this already happened? As a, now retired, accountant I have been hearing a lot about the World's financial centres moving East with London's international dominance over New York in turn being replaced by SIngapore's dominance over London within a five to ten year timescale, and then Shanghai taking over from Singapore but my Anglocentric view never questioned the role of Hong Kong in all this (even though I have met a few people who were ex.pat in Hong Kong for a while over the years). |
Singapore is nowhere near taking over London's dominance in financial markets. Unless Brexit hits very, very hard it's not going to happen. Even the Europeans have nearly given up on trying to get mass relocation to Paris/Frankfurt.
There is too much infrastructure, too much investment and it's in the perfect timezone for working with both east and west. You've also got huge related businesses like insurance based in the City.
Shanghai could easily replace HK though if China want to go that way. The City might well be replaced over longer timescales but 5-10 years is far too short.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:30 - Jun 18 with 2910 views | ElephantintheRoom |
Surely there is a limit to how many people can take to the streets because there isn't enough room for them all at street level at the same time? And if you think Hong Kong is a free city you are delusional - but presumably quite wealthy, ironically because of the despots profiting from their puppet city | |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:30 - Jun 18 with 2908 views | StokieBlue |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:30 - Jun 18 by ElephantintheRoom |
Surely there is a limit to how many people can take to the streets because there isn't enough room for them all at street level at the same time? And if you think Hong Kong is a free city you are delusional - but presumably quite wealthy, ironically because of the despots profiting from their puppet city |
You're going to have to provide evidence for was is in general, a total load of nonsense.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:36 - Jun 18 with 2899 views | WeWereZombies |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:03 - Jun 18 by StokieBlue |
Singapore is nowhere near taking over London's dominance in financial markets. Unless Brexit hits very, very hard it's not going to happen. Even the Europeans have nearly given up on trying to get mass relocation to Paris/Frankfurt.
There is too much infrastructure, too much investment and it's in the perfect timezone for working with both east and west. You've also got huge related businesses like insurance based in the City.
Shanghai could easily replace HK though if China want to go that way. The City might well be replaced over longer timescales but 5-10 years is far too short.
SB |
Be careful, Stokie, these things can creep up on you and before you realise it you are behind the happenings and it is too late to do anything about. I share your sceptical position about the infrastructure around Singapore and, as you say, it has certainly been a limiting factor about Frankfurt that there are not enough satellite towns and cities to support a larger financial hub. Not sure what holds Paris back, lunches too good in that city? Do not ignore Madrid and Dublin though, a distributed set of European financial centres being more powerful than London. Think parallel processing being usually more effective than serial processing.
Too many people are aware of the growing influence of Singapore to ignore it, the movement East of manufacturing over recent decades gives it a geographical logic and the coherent and convivial nature of that state's cultural mix also give a strategic advantage over most Western centres, even if that is perceived rather than actual, I note you did not question my assertion that London is dominant internationally over New York. And yet New York is bigger in terms of transaction volume and value, it is just that most of New York's trade is domestic. The same could happen to London, Singapore could be grabbing the big ticket work and leaving London with the 'grunt' work as we speak...
Apologies if this a bit vague, I am trying to type this up and listen to The Reith Lecture at the same time. | |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:46 - Jun 18 with 2892 views | StokieBlue |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:36 - Jun 18 by WeWereZombies |
Be careful, Stokie, these things can creep up on you and before you realise it you are behind the happenings and it is too late to do anything about. I share your sceptical position about the infrastructure around Singapore and, as you say, it has certainly been a limiting factor about Frankfurt that there are not enough satellite towns and cities to support a larger financial hub. Not sure what holds Paris back, lunches too good in that city? Do not ignore Madrid and Dublin though, a distributed set of European financial centres being more powerful than London. Think parallel processing being usually more effective than serial processing.
Too many people are aware of the growing influence of Singapore to ignore it, the movement East of manufacturing over recent decades gives it a geographical logic and the coherent and convivial nature of that state's cultural mix also give a strategic advantage over most Western centres, even if that is perceived rather than actual, I note you did not question my assertion that London is dominant internationally over New York. And yet New York is bigger in terms of transaction volume and value, it is just that most of New York's trade is domestic. The same could happen to London, Singapore could be grabbing the big ticket work and leaving London with the 'grunt' work as we speak...
Apologies if this a bit vague, I am trying to type this up and listen to The Reith Lecture at the same time. |
New York handles vast amounts of USD clearing, hence the higher volumes. Currently London handles a lot of EUR clearing but that may change with Brexit although Singapore is allowed to handle EUR clearing under an agreement whereby the rules are similar in both zones so it's allowed. It would be fairly difficult for the EU to apply that to Singapore and not the UK.
What do you mean by big ticket work? Virtually all structuring is done out of London, Singapore in sheer number of employees is very small in comparison.
Singapore certainly has a mix of cultures but it also has one of the most repressive governments in regards to the press and freedom of speech.
Other centres could emerge in Europe but even as we type the building of huge new offices continues in London. Soc Gen are moving into a new office in the Canary Wharf, DB have spent 1bn on a new office on Moorgate they aren't going to just abandon. UBS, CS and JP Morgan all have brand new offices. It's going to take a lot of building work elsewhere for them to move.
As I said, it's all possible, but 5-10 years seems a short time frame to me. If you said 15-20 you might well be right.
SB
Edit: Which lecture? [Post edited 18 Jun 2019 9:58]
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| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| 2 million people march, in peace on 10:05 - Jun 18 with 2877 views | WeWereZombies |
| 2 million people march, in peace on 09:46 - Jun 18 by StokieBlue |
New York handles vast amounts of USD clearing, hence the higher volumes. Currently London handles a lot of EUR clearing but that may change with Brexit although Singapore is allowed to handle EUR clearing under an agreement whereby the rules are similar in both zones so it's allowed. It would be fairly difficult for the EU to apply that to Singapore and not the UK.
What do you mean by big ticket work? Virtually all structuring is done out of London, Singapore in sheer number of employees is very small in comparison.
Singapore certainly has a mix of cultures but it also has one of the most repressive governments in regards to the press and freedom of speech.
Other centres could emerge in Europe but even as we type the building of huge new offices continues in London. Soc Gen are moving into a new office in the Canary Wharf, DB have spent 1bn on a new office on Moorgate they aren't going to just abandon. UBS, CS and JP Morgan all have brand new offices. It's going to take a lot of building work elsewhere for them to move.
As I said, it's all possible, but 5-10 years seems a short time frame to me. If you said 15-20 you might well be right.
SB
Edit: Which lecture? [Post edited 18 Jun 2019 9:58]
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By 'big ticket' I mean trades based on actual commerce rather than futures and other more esoteric trading, which I see as the carrot that New York has bitten upon with an internal weakening both in terms of underlying wealth and reputation - before there was the subprime crisis of 2007-9 there was LTCM and we all suspect something is brewing with the apparent success of the Trump administration, it is just a question of who exits before it and wins rather than staying no matter what and losing.
So I always trust financial products that are closer to actual trade, to material products and services that are close to people's everyday needs. With the move to manufacturing more of the World's consumer goods in China, Indonesia, Malaysia and other Asian nations as well as the associated origination of shipping then trust of what financial products represent shifts also.
I know what you mean about Singapore being restrictive but I have to question whether that is just an effect of perspective. I was surprised to really enjoy the four days I spent in Singapore (apart from the humidity) and was impressed by the success of cross cultural understanding. I would have to live and work there to really back up the ease I felt in the city but I love my mountains and fresh Atlantic breezes, it is not going to happen but any city would have the same effect on me so I find London oppressive after a day or so. | |
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