| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:13 - May 7 with 1589 views | StokieBlue |
Quite a bit of cherry picking there. For instance you didn't feel the need to quote:
"They found that closing schools, prohibiting mass gatherings and the closure of some non-essential business, particularly in the hospitality sector, were the most effective at stopping the spread of the disease."
"Due to the rapid-response nature of this research, it has not yet been peer-reviewed."
"However there have been considerable differences in how countries have carried out stay-home policies.
Acceptable reasons for being outdoors has varied between countries, and stay-home orders in some countries have been advisory rather than enforced by police with penalties.
Because of this, the results for the potential of stay-home advisories may be under-estimated.”
"It is important to remember that single epidemiological analyses do not prove cause and effect, especially where multiple interventions have been implemented very close to each other as in the case here."
All of which are quite important when coming to a conclusion.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:14 - May 7 with 1577 views | EdwardStone |
You might not be sure
But I am
Div listed |  | | |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:18 - May 7 with 1551 views | uefacup81 |
Assuming their study was Norfolk-based, I'm not surprised cases increased in some instances where families were staying at home together.
How are you meant to social-distance properly when your sister is just that good-looking? |  |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:18 - May 7 with 1553 views | NotSure |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:13 - May 7 by StokieBlue |
Quite a bit of cherry picking there. For instance you didn't feel the need to quote:
"They found that closing schools, prohibiting mass gatherings and the closure of some non-essential business, particularly in the hospitality sector, were the most effective at stopping the spread of the disease."
"Due to the rapid-response nature of this research, it has not yet been peer-reviewed."
"However there have been considerable differences in how countries have carried out stay-home policies.
Acceptable reasons for being outdoors has varied between countries, and stay-home orders in some countries have been advisory rather than enforced by police with penalties.
Because of this, the results for the potential of stay-home advisories may be under-estimated.”
"It is important to remember that single epidemiological analyses do not prove cause and effect, especially where multiple interventions have been implemented very close to each other as in the case here."
All of which are quite important when coming to a conclusion.
SB |
They found that banning mass-gatherings and closing schools was a good thing. Something I don't have an issue with and have never complained about.
But people should be forced outside, not limited to 1 pathetic walk a day. Having visitors round, well I admit that's bit more controversial but it's definitely OK if you all sit outside. |  | | |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:20 - May 7 with 1541 views | Guthrum |
All non-essential business have not been closed in the UK. Just those where it is impossible to either work from home or to maintain social distancing in the workplace.
Plus we have been allowed outside, on a theoretically limited basis, for excercise and essential shopping.
I wonder if their research allowed for the fact that lockdowns have generally been imposed at the point at which infection numbers start to increase steeply. Which they will continue to do for some time after, given the incubation period of the disease and the time taken for it to develop sufficiently serious symptoms for hospitalisation (and therefore testing). Perhaps seven to fourteen days before any effects begin to show in the data. If lockdown were genuinely counterproductive, then numbers would not be coming down again in those countries which have done it. |  |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:24 - May 7 with 1511 views | LankHenners |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:20 - May 7 by Guthrum |
All non-essential business have not been closed in the UK. Just those where it is impossible to either work from home or to maintain social distancing in the workplace.
Plus we have been allowed outside, on a theoretically limited basis, for excercise and essential shopping.
I wonder if their research allowed for the fact that lockdowns have generally been imposed at the point at which infection numbers start to increase steeply. Which they will continue to do for some time after, given the incubation period of the disease and the time taken for it to develop sufficiently serious symptoms for hospitalisation (and therefore testing). Perhaps seven to fourteen days before any effects begin to show in the data. If lockdown were genuinely counterproductive, then numbers would not be coming down again in those countries which have done it. |
Yes, that did seem a bit like calling correlation causation. |  |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:24 - May 7 with 1504 views | NewcyBlue |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:18 - May 7 by uefacup81 |
Assuming their study was Norfolk-based, I'm not surprised cases increased in some instances where families were staying at home together.
How are you meant to social-distance properly when your sister is just that good-looking? |
Don’t you live in Norwich?.... |  |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:29 - May 7 with 1493 views | NotSure |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:20 - May 7 by Guthrum |
All non-essential business have not been closed in the UK. Just those where it is impossible to either work from home or to maintain social distancing in the workplace.
Plus we have been allowed outside, on a theoretically limited basis, for excercise and essential shopping.
I wonder if their research allowed for the fact that lockdowns have generally been imposed at the point at which infection numbers start to increase steeply. Which they will continue to do for some time after, given the incubation period of the disease and the time taken for it to develop sufficiently serious symptoms for hospitalisation (and therefore testing). Perhaps seven to fourteen days before any effects begin to show in the data. If lockdown were genuinely counterproductive, then numbers would not be coming down again in those countries which have done it. |
Well my view is that numbers are coming down because it is now late spring in the Northern Hemisphere. Come June, July and August there will be hardly any deaths from this with or without social distancing.
Locking people in their houses was important in March but a bit of a waste of time since the middle of April. | | | |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:35 - May 7 with 1473 views | Guthrum |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:29 - May 7 by NotSure |
Well my view is that numbers are coming down because it is now late spring in the Northern Hemisphere. Come June, July and August there will be hardly any deaths from this with or without social distancing.
Locking people in their houses was important in March but a bit of a waste of time since the middle of April. |
So why did the numbers come down in China in the latter half of February, when the mean temperature is 6.6 centigrade, or in Australia and New Zealand more recently, where it is coming into late autumn? [Post edited 7 May 2020 11:36]
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:36 - May 7 with 1461 views | homer_123 |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:29 - May 7 by NotSure |
Well my view is that numbers are coming down because it is now late spring in the Northern Hemisphere. Come June, July and August there will be hardly any deaths from this with or without social distancing.
Locking people in their houses was important in March but a bit of a waste of time since the middle of April. |
It hasn't been a lockdown.
There has been 'restrictions'. Apart from those in high risk groups - everyone else can get out and about. |  |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:37 - May 7 with 1452 views | StokieBlue |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:29 - May 7 by NotSure |
Well my view is that numbers are coming down because it is now late spring in the Northern Hemisphere. Come June, July and August there will be hardly any deaths from this with or without social distancing.
Locking people in their houses was important in March but a bit of a waste of time since the middle of April. |
There is still no conclusive evidence for the conclusion you are pushing with regards to the weather. If it was as simple as that why are their lots of cases in places like Brazil, India, Iran etc?
It might have an effect but it doesn't seem to be a silver bullet.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:41 - May 7 with 1425 views | Herbivore |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:29 - May 7 by NotSure |
Well my view is that numbers are coming down because it is now late spring in the Northern Hemisphere. Come June, July and August there will be hardly any deaths from this with or without social distancing.
Locking people in their houses was important in March but a bit of a waste of time since the middle of April. |
I really hope you're a troll. Otherwise this is just painful. |  |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:45 - May 7 with 1401 views | Sarge |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:29 - May 7 by NotSure |
Well my view is that numbers are coming down because it is now late spring in the Northern Hemisphere. Come June, July and August there will be hardly any deaths from this with or without social distancing.
Locking people in their houses was important in March but a bit of a waste of time since the middle of April. |
But nobody is locked in their house. If you want to go outside, go outside. The one exercise per day thing is a myth too, it’s never been the law unless you were already unfortunate enough to live in Wales. |  | | |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:47 - May 7 with 1396 views | NotSure |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:37 - May 7 by StokieBlue |
There is still no conclusive evidence for the conclusion you are pushing with regards to the weather. If it was as simple as that why are their lots of cases in places like Brazil, India, Iran etc?
It might have an effect but it doesn't seem to be a silver bullet.
SB |
Well unfortunately the darker skin types aren't very good at absorbing Vitamin D from sunlight. But of course there is no conclusive evidence, however we are all allowed an opinion. | | | |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:47 - May 7 with 1395 views | lowhouseblue |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:29 - May 7 by NotSure |
Well my view is that numbers are coming down because it is now late spring in the Northern Hemisphere. Come June, July and August there will be hardly any deaths from this with or without social distancing.
Locking people in their houses was important in March but a bit of a waste of time since the middle of April. |
oh i see, first cuckoo in spring, end of covid bring.
i'm pretty sure that's an old wives tale. it's the sort nonsense trump would spout. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:49 - May 7 with 1373 views | Herbivore |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:47 - May 7 by NotSure |
Well unfortunately the darker skin types aren't very good at absorbing Vitamin D from sunlight. But of course there is no conclusive evidence, however we are all allowed an opinion. |
What are your credentials as a virologist? | |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:50 - May 7 with 1381 views | NotSure |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:47 - May 7 by lowhouseblue |
oh i see, first cuckoo in spring, end of covid bring.
i'm pretty sure that's an old wives tale. it's the sort nonsense trump would spout. |
"Four human coronaviruses that cause colds and other respiratory diseases are more revealing. Three have “marked winter seasonality,” with few or no detections in the summer, molecular biologist Kate Templeton, also at the University of Edinburgh, concluded in a 2010 analysis of 11,661 respiratory samples collected between 2006 and 2009. These three viruses essentially behave like the flu."
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seas | | | |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:52 - May 7 with 1348 views | NotSure |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:49 - May 7 by Herbivore |
What are your credentials as a virologist? |
Internet search engines, same as everyone else on this website. | | | |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:55 - May 7 with 1334 views | StokieBlue |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:50 - May 7 by NotSure |
"Four human coronaviruses that cause colds and other respiratory diseases are more revealing. Three have “marked winter seasonality,” with few or no detections in the summer, molecular biologist Kate Templeton, also at the University of Edinburgh, concluded in a 2010 analysis of 11,661 respiratory samples collected between 2006 and 2009. These three viruses essentially behave like the flu."
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seas |
That looks a lot like a special pleading fallacy.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-coronavirus-common-cold/claim-the-n
"A novel coronavirus is a new coronavirus that has not been previously identified. The virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is not the same as the coronaviruses that commonly circulate among humans and cause mild illness, like the common cold.​”
You're willing to take a big chance of something that is totally unproven. We don't know it will be milder in the summer and it's a bit irresponsible to go around spouting that it will be given that.
SB | |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:55 - May 7 with 1330 views | Chutney |
This is why they didn't get into a proper Uni. | | | |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:55 - May 7 with 1325 views | footers |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:49 - May 7 by Herbivore |
What are your credentials as a virologist? |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:56 - May 7 with 1315 views | LankHenners |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:55 - May 7 by Chutney |
This is why they didn't get into a proper Uni. |
Behave yourself. | |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:59 - May 7 with 1287 views | Guthrum |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:50 - May 7 by NotSure |
"Four human coronaviruses that cause colds and other respiratory diseases are more revealing. Three have “marked winter seasonality,” with few or no detections in the summer, molecular biologist Kate Templeton, also at the University of Edinburgh, concluded in a 2010 analysis of 11,661 respiratory samples collected between 2006 and 2009. These three viruses essentially behave like the flu."
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-do-dozens-diseases-wax-and-wane-seas |
You do realise that "coronavirus" actually only relates to the shape the virus takes, rather than being from a cohesive family? | |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 12:01 - May 7 with 1275 views | homer_123 |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:55 - May 7 by StokieBlue |
That looks a lot like a special pleading fallacy.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-coronavirus-common-cold/claim-the-n
"A novel coronavirus is a new coronavirus that has not been previously identified. The virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is not the same as the coronaviruses that commonly circulate among humans and cause mild illness, like the common cold.​”
You're willing to take a big chance of something that is totally unproven. We don't know it will be milder in the summer and it's a bit irresponsible to go around spouting that it will be given that.
SB |
Add to that the following:
Since this started in Nov/ Dec 2019 - the following still applies:
1. There is no vaccine
2. We still do not know how/ where this started
3. We are still learning how this virus operates and mutates
4. There is no vaccine
5. Unlike other corona viruses, this affects all age groups (the young appear to have the chance of an extremely bad reaction to this virus)
6. We are still not clear how 'exactly' it spreads
7. There is no vaccine
8. Its completely new, there are no existing anti-bodies within the human population to naturally fight this
9. It's already mutating (over 100 mutations of this virus have been found, some appear less serious, others potentially more so
10. There is no vaccine | |
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| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 12:02 - May 7 with 1267 views | Herbivore |
| University of East Anglia Report on Covid-19 on 11:52 - May 7 by NotSure |
Internet search engines, same as everyone else on this website. |
So you have no credentials as a virologist? In which case whilst you are quite right that you are allowed to express an opinion it is equally right that none of us should give it any credence. It is also right that only a fool would act on their own opinion on a matter that requires significant specialist knowledge that they are completely lacking. | |
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