| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's 14:36 - May 10 with 1327 views | Tommyparker |
To win a majority at the next general election Labour needs to gain 123 seats, almost teice as many as it required at the 2019 election.
This figure actually under-states the extent to which Labour's position has deteriorated. To secure almost three times more than the swing it needed to win the 2019 election.
63 per cent of the seats Labour needs to win are in in the North, the Midlands and Wales; 13 per cent are in Scotland; and 24 per cent are in southern England.
104 of the 123 seats Labour needs to win are in towns not cities ( by contrast over half of existing Labour seats are in cities).
Only 30 per cent of the 123 seats Labour needs to win voted 'remain' in the EU referendum, compared to around half of Labour's existing seats.
There is no electoral future in fighting a rear-guard action on Brexit. Senior Labour politicians need to emotionally and psychologically accept the reality of leaving the EU.
Labour must again debate how it works with other progressive parties because it's best hope of returning to power is govern in parterniship. More controversially, if Labour really wants power quickly, it may need to consider formal alliances.
2010 seats required 68 percentage swing required 4.6
2025 seats required 94 percentage swing required 8.7
2017 seats required 64 percentage swing required 3.6
2019 seats required 123 percentage swing required 10.3.
Labour's future prospects will be even worse if it cannot make progress in Scotland. To secure a UK majority without regaining seats in Scotland, Labour will need to win 57 per cent of the constituencies in England and Wales. Winning the 123 seats it needs in England and Wales will require an electoral swing of over 12 percentage points in English and Wales marginal seats.
A swing on this scale in England and Wales is almost inconceivable. This means that for Labour to return to government the party will either need to defeat the SNP or work with the SNP. The latter secnario seems more likely. Labour would need to gain 83 seats (but not from the SNP) to be able to govern with the support of the nationalists. Even this would require Labour to secure a swing in English and Wales marginals of 7 percentage points.
Overall Labour remains very strong in London ( with two thirds of seats) and strong in Wales, the North West, Yorkshire and Humber, and the North ( over 50 per cent of seats).
Labour had suffered a crushing defeat and is very unlikely to return to majority government in a single electoral cycle. But if the party does not make major progress over the next 4 or 5 years it cannot expect to secure power even after a further 10 years in opposition. A decisive change in direction is needed immediately.
For the Labour party to recover bit must rebuild support across the whole of Great Britain, but the new electoral map means that is top priority has to be Wales, the North and the Midlands. The party's mission must be to win support in towns and small cities, not the large cities that it already dominates.
This poses a profound challenge for the because its members, activists and politicians tend to come from large cities and are more socially liberal and pro-European than left-leaning voters in many towns. |  | | |  |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:44 - May 10 with 1292 views | StokieBlue |
What exactly is the point in your constant posting of cut-and-paste propaganda?
I am pretty sure now is not the time to be worrying about the next election.
SB |  |
| Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:48 - May 10 with 1268 views | Dubtractor |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:44 - May 10 by StokieBlue |
What exactly is the point in your constant posting of cut-and-paste propaganda?
I am pretty sure now is not the time to be worrying about the next election.
SB |
He is an odd poster.
Started out last summer posting tonnes of historic ITFC stats and trivia, but now seems to be pretty transparently political with tory sympathies. |  |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:54 - May 10 with 1250 views | BlueBadger |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:48 - May 10 by Dubtractor |
He is an odd poster.
Started out last summer posting tonnes of historic ITFC stats and trivia, but now seems to be pretty transparently political with tory sympathies. |
Imagine being so low in the Russian 'destabilise the west' team that you get this place as your brief.
I'm half expecting him to say something about Salisbury cathedral with every post. |  |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:56 - May 10 with 1233 views | Tommyparker |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:48 - May 10 by Dubtractor |
He is an odd poster.
Started out last summer posting tonnes of historic ITFC stats and trivia, but now seems to be pretty transparently political with tory sympathies. |
I live in Glasgow. Always voted SNP. | | | |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:56 - May 10 with 1234 views | m14_blue |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:44 - May 10 by StokieBlue |
What exactly is the point in your constant posting of cut-and-paste propaganda?
I am pretty sure now is not the time to be worrying about the next election.
SB |
It’s the first time I’ve genuinely thought someone might be a bot. | | | |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:56 - May 10 with 1230 views | footers |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:48 - May 10 by Dubtractor |
He is an odd poster.
Started out last summer posting tonnes of historic ITFC stats and trivia, but now seems to be pretty transparently political with tory sympathies. |
Never actually engages with anything either. Just posts C&P drivel and goes. |  |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 15:00 - May 10 with 1220 views | BlueBadger |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:56 - May 10 by m14_blue |
It’s the first time I’ve genuinely thought someone might be a bot. |
balls | |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 15:08 - May 10 with 1209 views | BlueBadger |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:56 - May 10 by Tommyparker |
I live in Glasgow. Always voted SNP. |
Glasgow is the most populous city in Scotland, and the third most populous city in the United Kingdom, as of the 2019 estimated city population of 611,748. Historically part of Lanarkshire, the city now forms the Glasgow City council area, one of the 32 council areas of Scotland; the local authority is Glasgow City Council. Glasgow is situated on the River Clyde in the country's West Central Lowlands. It is the fifth most visited city in the UK. | |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 15:12 - May 10 with 1176 views | eireblue |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:56 - May 10 by Tommyparker |
I live in Glasgow. Always voted SNP. |
Hmmm, lives in Glasgow, likes to cut and paste.
Do you have an older relative that likes sanding, and talking about his time as a Tory councillor, and reframing your comments when you talk about the SNP? |  | | |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 15:30 - May 10 with 1135 views | GlasgowBlue |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 15:12 - May 10 by eireblue |
Hmmm, lives in Glasgow, likes to cut and paste.
Do you have an older relative that likes sanding, and talking about his time as a Tory councillor, and reframing your comments when you talk about the SNP? |
And another tedious bore to join Jaykay and a Herbiebore on the div list. |  |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 15:31 - May 10 with 1126 views | footers |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 15:30 - May 10 by GlasgowBlue |
And another tedious bore to join Jaykay and a Herbiebore on the div list. |
Pop me on too please, luv.
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 15:39 - May 10 with 1100 views | footers |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 15:36 - May 10 by GlasgowBlue |
Edit. Unwarranted pop at footers for which I apologise. [Post edited 10 May 2020 16:19]
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I'll be speaking to Mel Hazelwood about this, you mark my words.
P.S. You doxed yourself on here just a couple of weeks ago. Lol. Hope you're OK. | |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 16:13 - May 10 with 1050 views | WeWereZombies |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:56 - May 10 by Tommyparker |
I live in Glasgow. Always voted SNP. |
So these cut and pastes are from 'The National'? |  |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 16:18 - May 10 with 1041 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 14:56 - May 10 by Tommyparker |
I live in Glasgow. Always voted SNP. |
If Labour promised a 2nd Indyref, would you vote Labour rather than SNP? |  |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 16:54 - May 10 with 994 views | eireblue |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 15:30 - May 10 by GlasgowBlue |
And another tedious bore to join Jaykay and a Herbiebore on the div list. |
Someone, that likes to make jokes and cutting comments about other posters, can’t take a joke/cutting remark.
Who’d a thunk it. | | | |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 18:00 - May 10 with 950 views | monytowbray |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 15:31 - May 10 by footers |
Pop me on too please, luv.
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Oh can I join the club too?
How are those “Herd immunity”, “Political Point Scoring” and “Oh so you know more than the scientists” arguments working out for you these days? Noticed you’ve been quiet lately. |  |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 18:11 - May 10 with 924 views | Herbivore |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 16:54 - May 10 by eireblue |
Someone, that likes to make jokes and cutting comments about other posters, can’t take a joke/cutting remark.
Who’d a thunk it. |
He's incredibly thin skinned. Anyone who gives a bit back in his much loved cut and thrust of political debate ends up going on ignore. |  |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 18:14 - May 10 with 918 views | monytowbray |
| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 18:11 - May 10 by Herbivore |
He's incredibly thin skinned. Anyone who gives a bit back in his much loved cut and thrust of political debate ends up going on ignore. |
Called me a "d1ck" multiple times a few weeks back. Name dropped me as if I was some kind of leader of an anti-Tory brigade. Still hasn't admitted that maybe I had a point and it wasn't just "political point scoring".
Not that it f*cking matters now we have such a huge death toll, a f*cked economy and a lockdown that will last longer. But my whole narrative was just the fact I hate Tories apparently. | |
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| Labour's electoral challenge in the 2020's on 19:22 - May 10 with 860 views | Darth_Koont |
Labour has no chance in Scotland - and certainly not with a right-of-centre vibe that may play well in other areas of the country. |  |
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