| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value 14:44 - Jan 1 with 3186 views | StokieBlue |
The study shows that the new variant (VOC202012/01) has a transmission advantage of 0.4 to 0.7 in the R number. This is higher than the original estimates of 0.4 to the R. It's also affecting the under 20's a lot more although that could be skewed because schools were open previously.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/211793/new-covid19-variant-growing-rapidly-engla
Some really worrying findings.
SB |  | | |  |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:13 - Jan 1 with 3112 views | Illinoisblue |
In the UK who is in overall charge of vaccinations, the govt or local health authorities? Here in the US golfer-in-chief Trump has pretty much washed his hands off it and said it’s up to individual states to figure it all out. At a time when strong leadership is so needed we have a pair of charlatans doing as worse a job as you could imagine. |  |
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| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:14 - Jan 1 with 3107 views | davblue |
Got to have a full lockdown of schools etc.
I can’t see any other option currently, we are heading for too late territory again by this government.
Too many people are being irresponsible now so, the need to act is now. |  | | |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:17 - Jan 1 with 3088 views | BlueBadger |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:13 - Jan 1 by Illinoisblue |
In the UK who is in overall charge of vaccinations, the govt or local health authorities? Here in the US golfer-in-chief Trump has pretty much washed his hands off it and said it’s up to individual states to figure it all out. At a time when strong leadership is so needed we have a pair of charlatans doing as worse a job as you could imagine. |
I believe it's Public Health England, who did such a sterling job with PPE guidelines back in March. |  |
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| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:17 - Jan 1 with 3095 views | loftboy |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:14 - Jan 1 by davblue |
Got to have a full lockdown of schools etc.
I can’t see any other option currently, we are heading for too late territory again by this government.
Too many people are being irresponsible now so, the need to act is now. |
Tested positive on Boxing Day, today is the first day since that I have felt relatively okay, totally knocked me for 6, got 4 more days of isolating left. Anyone who says “it’s just the flu” needs a kick in the gonads, I have never been this ill in my life. |  | | |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:22 - Jan 1 with 3070 views | EdwardStone |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:17 - Jan 1 by loftboy |
Tested positive on Boxing Day, today is the first day since that I have felt relatively okay, totally knocked me for 6, got 4 more days of isolating left. Anyone who says “it’s just the flu” needs a kick in the gonads, I have never been this ill in my life. |
Get well soon fella
Hope you are back fully fit in two shakes of a lambert's tail |  | | |
| (No subject) (n/t) on 15:23 - Jan 1 with 3076 views | BlueBadger |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:17 - Jan 1 by loftboy |
Tested positive on Boxing Day, today is the first day since that I have felt relatively okay, totally knocked me for 6, got 4 more days of isolating left. Anyone who says “it’s just the flu” needs a kick in the gonads, I have never been this ill in my life. |
Anyone who says 'it's just the flu' is doubly thick, given they clearly have idea how debilitating and lethal flu can be... [Post edited 1 Jan 2021 15:35]
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| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:28 - Jan 1 with 3045 views | CoachRob |
Reading the pre-print it states that current NPI's (e.g. Social distancing) will not be sufficient against the VOC - very worrying as you say. |  | | |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:06 - Jan 1 with 2982 views | StokieBlue |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:28 - Jan 1 by CoachRob |
Reading the pre-print it states that current NPI's (e.g. Social distancing) will not be sufficient against the VOC - very worrying as you say. |
Yes, previous measures won't be enough against the VOC variant from the looks of the analysis.
I've just seen this, I'll need to double check it when I get time:
The same severe restrictions that saw cases of the previous version of the virus fall by a third, would see a tripling of the new variant.
SB | | | |
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| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:09 - Jan 1 with 2959 views | davblue |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:17 - Jan 1 by loftboy |
Tested positive on Boxing Day, today is the first day since that I have felt relatively okay, totally knocked me for 6, got 4 more days of isolating left. Anyone who says “it’s just the flu” needs a kick in the gonads, I have never been this ill in my life. |
Sounds horrible. I wish you all the best in your recovery. | | | |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:09 - Jan 1 with 2958 views | jeera |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:17 - Jan 1 by loftboy |
Tested positive on Boxing Day, today is the first day since that I have felt relatively okay, totally knocked me for 6, got 4 more days of isolating left. Anyone who says “it’s just the flu” needs a kick in the gonads, I have never been this ill in my life. |
Wish you a full recovery soon chap. |  |
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| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:12 - Jan 1 with 2949 views | lowhouseblue |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:06 - Jan 1 by StokieBlue |
Yes, previous measures won't be enough against the VOC variant from the looks of the analysis.
I've just seen this, I'll need to double check it when I get time:
The same severe restrictions that saw cases of the previous version of the virus fall by a third, would see a tripling of the new variant.
SB |
hands face space works just as well against any variant of the virus - the physical transmission routes are no different. but once you are in contact with it, the new variant seems much more contagious. the spread within in households, and other settings without physical separation, seems to be about twice that of the previous strains. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:14 - Jan 1 with 2927 views | jeera |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:12 - Jan 1 by lowhouseblue |
hands face space works just as well against any variant of the virus - the physical transmission routes are no different. but once you are in contact with it, the new variant seems much more contagious. the spread within in households, and other settings without physical separation, seems to be about twice that of the previous strains. |
Plenty of parties last night still though.
You have to ask yourself, that after all this time, what is it these people are still not understanding? | |
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| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:15 - Jan 1 with 2927 views | TractorWood |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:13 - Jan 1 by Illinoisblue |
In the UK who is in overall charge of vaccinations, the govt or local health authorities? Here in the US golfer-in-chief Trump has pretty much washed his hands off it and said it’s up to individual states to figure it all out. At a time when strong leadership is so needed we have a pair of charlatans doing as worse a job as you could imagine. |
No one's in charge of anything. It's a shower of over promising and under delivering. |  |
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| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:26 - Jan 1 with 2884 views | Herbivore |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 15:17 - Jan 1 by loftboy |
Tested positive on Boxing Day, today is the first day since that I have felt relatively okay, totally knocked me for 6, got 4 more days of isolating left. Anyone who says “it’s just the flu” needs a kick in the gonads, I have never been this ill in my life. |
Glad you're starting to feel better, but I'd wager you've never had genuine flu as that will also knock you squarely on your arse for 5 days at least. |  |
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| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:28 - Jan 1 with 2877 views | StokieBlue |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:14 - Jan 1 by jeera |
Plenty of parties last night still though.
You have to ask yourself, that after all this time, what is it these people are still not understanding? |
Might make you explode....
SB | | | |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:32 - Jan 1 with 2849 views | Edmundo |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:06 - Jan 1 by StokieBlue |
Yes, previous measures won't be enough against the VOC variant from the looks of the analysis.
I've just seen this, I'll need to double check it when I get time:
The same severe restrictions that saw cases of the previous version of the virus fall by a third, would see a tripling of the new variant.
SB |
Is the new variant any more or less lethal though? We would expect mutations to veer toward the more infectious but less deadly, however all bets are off with Covid. |  |
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| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:37 - Jan 1 with 2828 views | Churchman |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:14 - Jan 1 by jeera |
Plenty of parties last night still though.
You have to ask yourself, that after all this time, what is it these people are still not understanding? |
My neighbours are fast to say how awful it is and complain about people ignoring rules in supermarkets etc, but the bloke was in the Canaries with his son before Christmas and I gather they were at a party round somebody’s house last night.
I think people do understand, but the mainstream view is ‘somebody else’s problem’, ‘nothing to do with me’, ‘nobody’s going to stop me doing what I want’. Without the kind of enforcement other countries have engaged in, it’ll only get worse. |  | | |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:44 - Jan 1 with 2791 views | StokieBlue |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:32 - Jan 1 by Edmundo |
Is the new variant any more or less lethal though? We would expect mutations to veer toward the more infectious but less deadly, however all bets are off with Covid. |
It's not more lethal but by extension, if more people have it then there will be more deaths and more complications like long covid. There will also be more pressure on the NHS which could lead to more deaths if they can't treat everyone.
There is no rule that states mutations tend towards being more infectious but less lethal, it depends entirely on what is most successful "in the wild". For instance, something like Ebola may "benefit" from becoming more infectious but less lethal because it would then infect more people before it killed them, however covid could become quite a bit more lethal and still be successful given it can spread easily so it won't kill all the hosts. In the end if any virus can move on before killing it's host it's successful (take HIV as an example).
SB [Post edited 1 Jan 2021 16:44]
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| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 17:59 - Jan 1 with 2609 views | Illinoisblue |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:15 - Jan 1 by TractorWood |
No one's in charge of anything. It's a shower of over promising and under delivering. |
Sounds painfully familiar | |
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| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 18:19 - Jan 1 with 2571 views | loftboy |
| Imperial study on the new variant and it's effect on the R value on 16:26 - Jan 1 by Herbivore |
Glad you're starting to feel better, but I'd wager you've never had genuine flu as that will also knock you squarely on your arse for 5 days at least. |
Probably not, I don’t usually get ill full stop,only time I’m ever off work is for physical injuries. Due to holiday booked and time of year by the time I’ve Been self isolating I will only have lost a couple of shifts.
As of yesterday about 10% of my depot has either tested positive or have been notified to isolate. [Post edited 1 Jan 2021 19:07]
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