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Every 2-3 months a new 'variant' is going to arise, which threatens the efficacy of existing vaccines, and means that restrictions need to remain for 'another few months' while we await further data. But it's just a short-term extension and things will 'hopefully look much better in the summer'.
This process repeats ad infinitum, until about the year 2030, when governents are finally prepared to get society back up and running, and to maximise the economy. However, by this point we will be prepared to blindly follow any whim and demand of our leaders in exchange for the privilege of 'freedom', because 2019 was a long time ago, and 'this is the way the world is now'.
Already we are seeing stories from so-called 'experts' saying that restrictions on large-scale gatherings will remain in place for a 'few years', while we 'learn to live with Coronavirus'. I thought the plan to live with Coronavirus was simply to get a regular vaccine infrastructure in place and to get life 'back to normal', pre-2020, but apparently I was mistaken.
We're living in a highly regulated society at this point, where the infrastructure is competely geared towards 'stopping the spread of Covid', minimising any free will on the part of the individual. But all that matters to 'them' is an efficient and productive society. Having fun and enjoying life in the traditional sense doesn't contribute towards the growth of the nation anymore.
Of course, in return for our 'freedom', we will be required to herd towards vaccine centres every 6-12 months for a booster for whichever variant is currently causing problems, and to update our vaccine records/passports, for if we wish to exercise the 'right' to travel.*
The less educated in society will continue to lap it all up, because they do not have the capacity or the means to question or change anything. Meanwhile, the well-educated who might be able to offer an alternative will be hamstrung, because the 'data' will suggest that the current approach is the 'most effective to save lives', and those who question this will risk their professional reputation and be accused of 'playing fast and loose with people's health'.
I could continute, but my brain hurts now. I'm aware I've gone full tinfoil hat and conspiracy mode, but what I've described isn't really that far from what we are already seeing. I am 100% happy and prepared to be shot down and called an absolute loon bag, by anyone who wishes to bring me back to reality and tell me that I am talking utter sh*te. But constructive responses only, please.
* I am aware that I've spoken about the vaccine programme in contradictory terms, but the contexts in each scenario are totally different.
Am short of time, so limited reply, but basically - no need to be so downhearted or so bleak in outlook -
1. Vaccines have developed & are now being continuously developed so well, that they have/will have the capacity to deal with mutations that (as you say) will inevitably arise.
2. If you look at the Aids/HIV virus for example, you'll see how that quite quickly went from being a killer disease to one that's now well contained, with those who have it living to a ripe old age.
Humans are idiots in many ways, but also extremely clever in developing medical, technical & other scientific solutions :)
If it's any consolation, I feel the same way. We are all told that things will get better and then this happens, the new variants. How are they getting into the country when travel is supposed to have been stopped and people are supposed to quarantine? Just feel the carrot dangling is getting moved further and further away. I know vaccines are a good thing but I hate all this waiting.
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Let's pack life in and give up now on 15:58 - Feb 8 with 1947 views
There is a balance to be had between loosening restrictions and allowing the virus to spread. We had a little go at "getting back to normal" at the end of December which killed tens of thousands of people in the UK alone so that's not actually an answer either.
The vaccines will help, the idea that they are not going to make a difference is somewhat over the top. Indeed the issues with the AZ vaccine and the South African variant are that there is no significant evidence either way of it's efficacy yet and some of the media coverage is a little excitable. This is where Boris Johnson's reassurances would be a lot more credible had he not blown that with his entire career to this point - he's broadly right here though.
The tinfoil hat stuff is bonkers though, why would governments want this to continue for longer than necessary.
Let's pack life in and give up now on 15:57 - Feb 8 by DebsyAngel
If it's any consolation, I feel the same way. We are all told that things will get better and then this happens, the new variants. How are they getting into the country when travel is supposed to have been stopped and people are supposed to quarantine? Just feel the carrot dangling is getting moved further and further away. I know vaccines are a good thing but I hate all this waiting.
Stay positive, Debs, as it's the most important thing you can do. Hopefully in 6-12 months things will look much better for us all. I am just exercising a bit of a thought experiment and seeing what the comments are.
Let's pack life in and give up now on 15:58 - Feb 8 by Steve_M
There is a balance to be had between loosening restrictions and allowing the virus to spread. We had a little go at "getting back to normal" at the end of December which killed tens of thousands of people in the UK alone so that's not actually an answer either.
The vaccines will help, the idea that they are not going to make a difference is somewhat over the top. Indeed the issues with the AZ vaccine and the South African variant are that there is no significant evidence either way of it's efficacy yet and some of the media coverage is a little excitable. This is where Boris Johnson's reassurances would be a lot more credible had he not blown that with his entire career to this point - he's broadly right here though.
The tinfoil hat stuff is bonkers though, why would governments want this to continue for longer than necessary.
Re your last paragraph; because it's all a conspiracy* designed to change the fabric of life as we know it.
* I am NOT saying that the virus itself is a conspiracy. I am not a Covid denier. I do not wish to cause any offence at all to anyone who has been personally affected (as I have myself).
You lost me at "so called experts" and "minimising of free will".
I know you acknowledge that you've entered a tinfoil hat mode but a lot of what you've written isn't really what's happened. You are assigning a grand conspiracy to what are simply random mutations. I know it's not great but to say it's all planned in some way really isn't helpful.
What do you think should happen?
SB
Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula
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Let's pack life in and give up now on 16:08 - Feb 8 with 1863 views
Let's pack life in and give up now on 16:04 - Feb 8 by ThisIsMyUsername
Re your last paragraph; because it's all a conspiracy* designed to change the fabric of life as we know it.
* I am NOT saying that the virus itself is a conspiracy. I am not a Covid denier. I do not wish to cause any offence at all to anyone who has been personally affected (as I have myself).
Why do they want to do that? The Tories are in a good place in the UK at the moment, Brexit has happened, big majority and large parts of the media will slavishly support whatever they do.
Which changes to life as we know it do you think they want to make?
My next door neighbour is involved in the company that do the flu vaccines, they have to work out the main variants each year and change the vaccine. He reckons they’ll eventually do most of the Covid ones, biotechnology has moved so quickly -with the flu they have to use eggs to cultivate the virus to make the vaccines, unnecessary with Covid ones. I also seem to remember someone saying the common cold is likely a similar virus to what we’re experiencing but from the 1890’s. Its essentially become a less lethal disease for its mutations but still spreads easily (better for us and works for the virus!)
Let's pack life in and give up now on 16:02 - Feb 8 by ThisIsMyUsername
Stay positive, Debs, as it's the most important thing you can do. Hopefully in 6-12 months things will look much better for us all. I am just exercising a bit of a thought experiment and seeing what the comments are.
I try to - but it's bloody hard. It's just I cannot cope with things opening up, then cases climb, and another lock down for months. Last year I didn;t even go out for meals or days out, while others were happy to do so. Suffering chronic anxiety like I do is no help, I want to get over that, but it's impossible at the moment. I try to carry on, chat to many people about things, listen to lots of music, but some days I hit rock bottom - today is one of those days/
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Let's pack life in and give up now on 16:13 - Feb 8 with 1828 views
Let's pack life in and give up now on 16:08 - Feb 8 by ThisIsMyUsername
It has to start somewhere, though. That's how they get at your psychology.
You're taking the outcome you want (the Government to make you more accepting of harsh restrictions) and applying it to the current situation.
Counter point, imagine if you thought about the blackout like this? Were the Government trying to control people then, or were they trying to stop bombers from blowing up towns and cities?
Second counter point, if this is about Governments trying to control people, why have we seen more authoritarian Governments not take immediate advantage of this. For example, Jair Bolsanaro did the exact opposite and basically just outright denied it even existed.
Nobody is going to accept a loss of freedoms at the end of it, I'd argue the opposite. Once this is over, nobody is going to want to do this again for a very long time.
Let's pack life in and give up now on 16:07 - Feb 8 by StokieBlue
You lost me at "so called experts" and "minimising of free will".
I know you acknowledge that you've entered a tinfoil hat mode but a lot of what you've written isn't really what's happened. You are assigning a grand conspiracy to what are simply random mutations. I know it's not great but to say it's all planned in some way really isn't helpful.
What do you think should happen?
SB
Hi SB. Appreciate the measured response, as I know you've disagreed with me on similar topics in the past.
I'm not sure what should happen. I suppose the current approach is the correct one, and being taken by people who know far more about it than me.
I'm just voicing my concern at what 'might' happen. It probably doesn't help that I recently read '1984' and 'Brave New World' again.
Let's pack life in and give up now on 16:08 - Feb 8 by Steve_M
Why do they want to do that? The Tories are in a good place in the UK at the moment, Brexit has happened, big majority and large parts of the media will slavishly support whatever they do.
Which changes to life as we know it do you think they want to make?
All I can do in response to your questions is refer you to my original post.
I know I'm quite possibly not talking a lot of sense.
I've only read the headline and first paragraph as I don't have a subscription.
So that article cites events like the Cheltenham Festival or large weddings where people jet in from all over the world are unlikely. With regards to Cheltenham it specifically says "without restrictions" so events like that and football will go ahead but likely with reduced crowds.
In the general case restrictions on everyday life will ease over time and the examples the the article certainly aren't everyday life.
Nobody is going to stand for a long-term reduction of their freedoms for no reason but at the moment it's something that is required.
SB
Avatar - IC410 - Tadpoles Nebula
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Let's pack life in and give up now on 16:23 - Feb 8 with 1749 views
Let's pack life in and give up now on 16:13 - Feb 8 by DanTheMan
You're taking the outcome you want (the Government to make you more accepting of harsh restrictions) and applying it to the current situation.
Counter point, imagine if you thought about the blackout like this? Were the Government trying to control people then, or were they trying to stop bombers from blowing up towns and cities?
Second counter point, if this is about Governments trying to control people, why have we seen more authoritarian Governments not take immediate advantage of this. For example, Jair Bolsanaro did the exact opposite and basically just outright denied it even existed.
Nobody is going to accept a loss of freedoms at the end of it, I'd argue the opposite. Once this is over, nobody is going to want to do this again for a very long time.
We've had some of the most lenient lockdowns in the world as well. I wonder what the people in Italy thought about being essentially under house arrest for weeks on end?
The UK generally has a hard time adapting to such tough measures because we've lived relatively freely for ever, more or less, compared to say conditions in mainland Europe and even Northern Ireland.
We're not used to authoritarianism, which is good in itself but quite damaging to us collectively when we're trying to achieve something like this.
footers KC - Prosecution Barrister - Friend to all
Let's pack life in and give up now on 16:13 - Feb 8 by DanTheMan
You're taking the outcome you want (the Government to make you more accepting of harsh restrictions) and applying it to the current situation.
Counter point, imagine if you thought about the blackout like this? Were the Government trying to control people then, or were they trying to stop bombers from blowing up towns and cities?
Second counter point, if this is about Governments trying to control people, why have we seen more authoritarian Governments not take immediate advantage of this. For example, Jair Bolsanaro did the exact opposite and basically just outright denied it even existed.
Nobody is going to accept a loss of freedoms at the end of it, I'd argue the opposite. Once this is over, nobody is going to want to do this again for a very long time.
I'm definitely looking at it through a narrow lense from the perspective of someone who is totally fed up and fatigued of it all, and then perhaps blowing it out of proportion.
I wasn't aware that Jair Bolsonaro was the Brazilian President until I Googled him. My knowledge on international politics obviously isn't very strong currently. So thank you for making that point.
I hope your last sentence is correct. Although, maybe I will be the one in a few years saying 'I told you so'. Who knows?
He highlights the freedoms taken away from a human rights perspective (being a human rights lawyer) whilst appreciating we have needed to do some extremely drastic things in the short term.
The biggest issues for me are that we have effectively moved from innocent til proven guilty with the requirement to now explain to a police officer why you are outside your home.
He states that the long held legal presumption that "Everything is legal unless it is explicitly disallowed" has been switched to "Everything is illegal unless it is explicitly allowed" with the lockdown laws.
He also highlights the lack of parliamentary scrutiny of many new laws, something unthinkable 12 months ago.
Facinating stuff and really thought provoking. Will be crucial these laws are rolled back asap once we get back into normality whenever that is.
I think there is a danger of our losing many of our rights, whilst accepting it is necessary at the moment, if that makes sense.
---- Not going to go into the what/ifs regarding 10 years of lockdowns. Is in no one's interests, ours or the governments.
Let's pack life in and give up now on 16:34 - Feb 8 by bluelagos
This guy is really informed / interesting
He highlights the freedoms taken away from a human rights perspective (being a human rights lawyer) whilst appreciating we have needed to do some extremely drastic things in the short term.
The biggest issues for me are that we have effectively moved from innocent til proven guilty with the requirement to now explain to a police officer why you are outside your home.
He states that the long held legal presumption that "Everything is legal unless it is explicitly disallowed" has been switched to "Everything is illegal unless it is explicitly allowed" with the lockdown laws.
He also highlights the lack of parliamentary scrutiny of many new laws, something unthinkable 12 months ago.
Facinating stuff and really thought provoking. Will be crucial these laws are rolled back asap once we get back into normality whenever that is.
I think there is a danger of our losing many of our rights, whilst accepting it is necessary at the moment, if that makes sense.
---- Not going to go into the what/ifs regarding 10 years of lockdowns. Is in no one's interests, ours or the governments.
[Post edited 8 Feb 2021 16:41]
Sounds interesting. I will watch it later, thanks.
Let's pack life in and give up now on 16:46 - Feb 8 by ThisIsMyUsername
Sounds interesting. I will watch it later, thanks.
It is interesting. It is also easy to get paranoid with many of these powers, especially when people like Priti Patel are in power.
Where I am relaxed is that BJ is ultimately a libertarian not an authoritarian (Possibly too much for a pandemic) as are many in his party. Gove, Patel or Raab would definitely worry me if they were to become PM before these laws are repealed.
Personally I think scientists need to learn to read the room before speculating on the future. Tim Spector’s comments regarding large gatherings being unlikely and things like masks returning for winter months because they ‘cost nothing’ are massively unhelpful.
People have selflessly albeit largely involuntarily put their lives on hold for almost a year now, they need to see glimmers of light, because that is what will ensure people grin and bear it for just a little longer so that real life returns faster. To me, real life isn’t back until I can go to football, go on holiday, see my family without having to justify it to someone and not have to wear some grotty piece of fabric on my face when buying milk. Until then I’m just grinning and bearing it.
Comments like those from Tim Spector simply drag people down and fuel the conspiracy agenda (not you as I can’t see anything in your post likening it to any kind of conspiracy or plan). Think the scientists need to science and let the PR people do the public relations. The media is responsible too, as it’s rare that a piece of good news can be reported without a caveat. Good news doesn’t generate clicks but it sure as hell helps people stay sane enough to keep going with the restrictions a little longer.
My advice to you: don’t read the news, don’t read this forum as much (or at least block some posters/threads to clear the gloom a bit) and take any speculation on what the future might look like with a pinch of salt because it’s a fast moving situation and nobody can really tell.
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Let's pack life in and give up now on 17:05 - Feb 8 with 1522 views
The vaccines look likely to protect against severe disease and they will adjust them for next winter. I don't see why we would be in lockdown for cases that don't require hospitalisation? The whole point of the lockdowns was to protect the NHS. If people aren't going into hospital then why the need for lockdowns?
If you've reached this point I can't recommend enough that you watch Dr Campbell's (Campbell Teaching) daily updates on his Youtube channel. You get all the info from someone who knows what they are talking about. Disconnect from the media and just watch his videos. It seems like what you need for your own mental health.
Let's pack life in and give up now on 17:00 - Feb 8 by Sarge
Personally I think scientists need to learn to read the room before speculating on the future. Tim Spector’s comments regarding large gatherings being unlikely and things like masks returning for winter months because they ‘cost nothing’ are massively unhelpful.
People have selflessly albeit largely involuntarily put their lives on hold for almost a year now, they need to see glimmers of light, because that is what will ensure people grin and bear it for just a little longer so that real life returns faster. To me, real life isn’t back until I can go to football, go on holiday, see my family without having to justify it to someone and not have to wear some grotty piece of fabric on my face when buying milk. Until then I’m just grinning and bearing it.
Comments like those from Tim Spector simply drag people down and fuel the conspiracy agenda (not you as I can’t see anything in your post likening it to any kind of conspiracy or plan). Think the scientists need to science and let the PR people do the public relations. The media is responsible too, as it’s rare that a piece of good news can be reported without a caveat. Good news doesn’t generate clicks but it sure as hell helps people stay sane enough to keep going with the restrictions a little longer.
My advice to you: don’t read the news, don’t read this forum as much (or at least block some posters/threads to clear the gloom a bit) and take any speculation on what the future might look like with a pinch of salt because it’s a fast moving situation and nobody can really tell.
Totally disagree.
Scientists shouldn't "read the room" and tell people what they want to hear, they should tell them exactly what the sciences indicates at that time.
In your two examples, if it's unlikely there will be large gatherings without restrictions it's best to say and than explain why using science. As for masks, the science is extremely clear that they should be used in winter months regardless of C19 just as they are in Asia. I know that many don't want to hear that but that is what the science indicates. Look at the levels of flu this year, wearing masks in shops or even just on public transport could mean that most years look like that. Surely wearing a mask for a few minutes is better than people needlessly dying?
You don't have to worry about masks being a long term issue though, the will simply isn't there in the West to minimise airborne disease in the winter months through a tiny bit of discomfort.
Essentially you are asking that scientists ignore the science which to me is an awful position to expect them to take and it's one I hope they never embrace.
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