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This is an update from my model (20k simulations, team ratings based on goals and shots for and against). 2 wins gives a 92% chance of promotion. A win and a draw is 56%. Town are in an amazing position.
How many points do Ipswich need for automatic promotion? Despite this weekend's emotional rollercoaster, Town are in an incredible position. Two wins gives a 92% chance of autos. A win and a draw = 56%. pic.twitter.com/QS0IWIFujl
Shameless plug, but I published my first book, Dark Swans, on Amazon today. It's a techno-thriller set in York and North Yorkshire (and a small bit in Norfolk). It's not directly Ipswich related, but there are a few oblique ITFC references. It's available in ebook and paperback format. If you like it, I'd be grateful for a review. Thanks.
Think Ipswich Town’s 2016/17 Championship record redefined tedium? Think again. Despite a low mid-table finish, set against a background of increasing supporter discontent at insipid management and directionless ownership – Town actually topped (or tailed) the league for many key attributes. Not the characteristics of a mundane team.
My view of Sam Allardyce is heavily influenced by the most exciting match I’ve ever watched. Ipswich’s 5-3 (AET) defeat of Bolton in a play-off semi-final second leg in May 2000.
What with Christmas and Sky Sports' scheduling it’s difficult to keep up with the Championship at the moment, but a quick glance at the table shows 23 games played - the halfway point.
In my last blog I bemoaned Mick McCarthy’s pass completion stats – where his teams are consistently poor - this time I’m looking at shots on target to try and evaluate performance. Apologies if it gets a bit geeky.
In the modern football world, most match reports are adorned by a plethora of stats that may (or may not) tell us something extra about the relative performance of each team – eg BBC reports show shots, shots on target, possession and fouls.