 | Forum
Reply | Hypothetical.....
at 08:30 20 May 2024
Pretty hard no from me. It not about how much compensation we get from them, it is about their impact whilst they are here. KM is simply more important than any squad member right now. |
| Forum
Thread | Targets
at 07:32 20 May 2024
I'm here to save you from the endless KM rumours!
Ipswich come into the 2024-25 Premiership season with two consecutive 2nd place finishes. Town will be seeking to replicate this and may deem anything less than second as a failure. So too will Arsenal, who themselves have finished second two seasons in a row. One thing is for certain, next season, at least one of these teams won’t finish second.
Since the top tier moved to 20 teams 86 teams have been promoted. You may speculate that this is bad maths. But in the 1994-95 season only two clubs were promoted. Reading finished second and missed out to Bolton in the Play-offs. Don’t feel too sorry for them though, in 2005-06, Reading got promoted with a record points total (106) and never looked back.
The most impressive performance by a promoted team was a team you may have heard of - Ipswich. Written off by everyone following their play-off success, Ipswich amassed 66 points, finishing 5th and qualifying for Europe. Town are the only promoted team to win more than half their games and have the highest goal difference. If they can’t finish second, Town may have to settle for European qualification.
At the other end of the talent pool we find the worst teams of the modern era. Of course, Norwich are so bad we see them twice. Ipswich will be wanting to chalk those totals off by Christmas, if we want to put ourselves in a good position to stay up. If we have a tough season, we will still want to better 11 and 22 points.
At the very least we want to be targeting 17th place. Survival. So we can give ourselves the opportunity to consolidate our position in the league and build. There has been a 12 point range for the teams finishing in 17th (44-32 points). Though this past season we had the lowest total, in part, due to a points deduction. Without that Forest would have finished on 36, the modal average, reducing the range to 10 points (44-34 points). One could argue to stay up we would replace one of the bottom three and need to better this tally.
Another way of looking at it is we would need to beat the teams in the bottom three. Or, beat the team in 18th place. This season produced the lowest points total for 18th place. Luton were only four points above Norwich’s -61 GD season (26 and 22 respectively). Two thirds of teams are finishing 18th with 33 to 36 points. So you have to count yourself unlucky if you are finishing 18th with 37 or more points. West Ham getting relegated on 42 points can feel particularly hard done by. They would have survived on any other season with that tally and GD.
From these charts we can argue a few things. 76% of the time, you will finish ahead of the team in 18th with 38 points. If Ipswich get 45 points, it would take a record breaking season for Town to get relegated. If you are planning to survive, this is the number you should target at the beginning of the season, so it is not in the hands of chance.
Of the teams that got relegated, the best GD ever was Middlesbrough on -9. This was in the 1996-97 season when they were relegated with 39 points. The reality of finishing so low is you will see more goals go against you than you do for you. Even in Ipswich’s phenomenal season, Town had a GD of 15. Only 7 promoted teams from 86 have recorded a positive GD in their first season.
It’s even rarer for a team to record >50 goals and still get relegated. So targeting 50 goals would be a reasonable ambition. Though, word of warning, Luton and Leicester have scored >50 in successive seasons and both have been relegated! If we are to score >50 goals, let’s not be the ones to make it 3 in a row. Seeing Luton with such a low points tally and a good goal difference is surprising.
No relegated team has conceded less than 50 goals. This makes more than 50 goals scored and less than 50 goals conceded a pretty natural target to aim for.
So here we have it. I’ll be tracking how we get on against previous seasons in some sort of half-arsed manner. The spreadsheets are loaded up, working automatically. It is just about how regularly I get on to post them. If you want access to the spreadsheets themselves, let me know in a private message. It is currently showing the Championship, as it is pulling from the TWTD table, so when that updates, we should be golden.
Black Line = Derby’s 11 point season
Green Line = Norwich’s 22 point season
Red Line = 45 point safety line
Blue Line = Ipswich’s 66 point season
Black Line = Derby’s 20 GF
Green Line = Norwich’s 23 GF
Red Line = 50 GF target
Blue Line = Ipswich’s 57 GF
Black Line = Sheff Utd 104 GA
Green Line = Norwich’s 84 GA
Red Line = 50 GA target
Blue Line = Ipswich’s 42 GA
[Post edited 20 May 7:39]
|
| Forum
Reply | Bye Jurgen Klopp
at 05:52 20 May 2024
Sorry mate, had to downvote you. I like Klopp, but putting the caveat of KM and not GB is worthy of it! |
| Forum
Reply | League 1 playoff final later
at 16:51 18 May 2024
When Bolton watch back and accept their team deserved what they got then I may look favourably in these situations. But as it stands...
ONE NIL OXFORD!!!!! Get it over the line Greg! |
| Forum
Reply | Improvement works
at 15:12 18 May 2024
I'd recommend watching part 2 of Mark Ashton's interview. He covers it nicely in there. |
| Forum
Thread | Greg Leigh on NTT20
at 20:46 17 May 2024
12:00 until finish, if you are interested in hearing how he is getting ahead of the play off final |
| Forum
Reply | 16 years 🎵 (n/t)
at 22:58 16 May 2024
16 years, who gives a 
We're Ipswich Town and we're staying up! |
| Forum
Thread | Following on from the Home kit thread...
at 06:50 15 May 2024
What do you think is the best away kit?
I'm personally a big fan of the orange ones and think this year's was the best of the lot. That would probably be followed by the 80-81 third kit.
But I do look back and see our first real away colour was yellow with blue trim. That seemed to have died in 1977. Do you think we'd ever dare do our traditional yellow away kit again? Would you like it?
What colour do you think our away kit will be this season? And what do you want it to be? |
| Forum
Reply | You should read this blog by Jayesss
at 21:07 14 May 2024
I've been sent your blogs a few times this season in a WhatsApp group. Obviously didn't know they were you. Good reads. |
| Forum
Reply | Really good podcast from a Leeds supporter
at 19:43 13 May 2024
It's interesting. I find it more intreaguing how people on the outside look for a star and highlight Omari. Obviously cruical to our end of season, but we did very well at the start without him contributing as significantly. So I think there is more to unpick there.
The other thing I've found amusing is the home reliance angle (obviously they are saying it as a positive, so it is in no ways a complaint at them). But I just don't see the truth in it.
Home points
1 Ipswich 54
2 Leeds 53
3 Leicester 52
Away points
1 Leicester City 45
2 Ipswich Town 42
4 Leeds 37
Difference
Leicester 7
Ipswich 12
Leeds 16
Home form is almost always more impressive than away from in raw points tallys. But getting 42 points away from home is a big achievement in my books. 5 more points on the road than Leeds, compared to 1 point more at home is where I'd choose to highlight. [Post edited 13 May 19:44]
|
| Forum
Reply | Those who play fantasy football
at 16:38 13 May 2024
I was thinking along the assist lines too. Davis got 18 assists, Chaplin 8, Hirst 6 (top 3 assists in our team this season.)
Omari got 5, Burns got 4.
Hirst was out injured, so would have likely picked up more. Omari has come on a lot in the second half of the season, and I'd think he'd get more than Chaplin next year.
Burns looks like he get a lot of assists, but he is often the person passing to the person getting the assist or dragging people out of position.
https://www.whoscored.com/Teams/165/Show/England-Ipswich - Source [Post edited 13 May 16:40]
|
| Forum
Reply | Rumour FC
at 16:18 13 May 2024
Thanks for the unwavering efforts people. Updated |
| Forum
Reply | Those who play fantasy football
at 16:06 13 May 2024
I want to join a league next season where you have to have 3 town players. As things stand - Davis, Hirst, Chaplin. I'd sub Omari for Chaplin if we got him. I could be tempted to drop Hirst for a RB |
| Forum
Reply | There literally wasn’t though….
at 14:42 13 May 2024
New posters are sometimes given hassle because it is instantly obvious they've set up a troll account and existing posters can't be bothered waiting 3 months for the necessary proof to mount up, particularly when the new poster is laying out their oh so smart and funny origin story.
I think that they have been banned within a day demonstrates it has been helpful. Probably saved you months of bickering and clean ups by being able to act swiftly. |
| | Kropotkin123
|
Site Scores| Forum Votes: | 3976 | | Comment Votes: | 454 | | Prediction League: | 0 | | TOTAL: | 4430 |
|
By continuing to use the site, you agree to our use of cookies and to abide by our Terms and Conditions.