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Reply | A bit of perspective
at 12:28 20 May 2024
Over the last 10 years the majority of teams promoted without parachute payments have survived at least their first season in the Premier League (65%).
The survival rate for yo-yo clubs is far worse (31%). |
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Reply | Hypothetical.....
at 08:55 20 May 2024
The manager is easily the most important component in a football club's immediate on-field success. |
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Reply | The pressures of cancel culture
at 12:28 19 May 2024
Not like Seinfeld was edgy stuff. Meanwhile, his co-creator Larry David has gone on to make something objectively far more offensive (Curb Your Enthusiasm) to pretty much everybody's wild acclaim (because it's funny and original!). |
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Reply | The pressures of cancel culture
at 11:51 19 May 2024
Think there's an irony in there that Ricky Gervais is mentioned as someone who transgresses the rules of "cancel culture" (such as they are) and his career is doing just fine (arguably better than much of his later output deserves). In reality, people in public life largely say what they want without any real consequences (especially if it's actually funny!), but continue to work themselves into a frenzy about what might happen if they say the wrong thing.
The article reflects a couple of the real reasons why it's become such a big deal. The interviewer is obliged to ask Merchant about it and put his response in the headline, when it doesn't strike me as a particularly important part of the interview. "Cancel culture" is above all a media trope.
I think the longer quote is also more revealing: “I’m also aware that sensitivities shift over time and that people are allowed to criticise and query things, and we do look back at old comedy and think we wouldn’t do that any more.” He takes a breath. “I have no objection to the sands shifting. I think that makes sense and I’m loth to become a kind of ‘old man of comedy’, railing against the younger generation. But you do feel like there’s a sensitivity to the words before they’ve even heard the joke or the context. And that is inevitably a straitjacket of sorts – it quashes experimentation.”
It's a straightjacket for people like Merchant because he doesn't want to feel bad, not because it'd ruin his career or anything. He doesn't want to think of himself as a 21st-Century Bernard Manning, he wants to think of himself as a decent, nice guy and doesn't like the idea that he might say something that would change people's impression of him. For me that feeling is just a normal part of life, perhaps intensified in the social media age, rather than some world-ending-free-speech-threatening censorship. |
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Reply | KmC is not going anywhere
at 09:53 19 May 2024
Whilst I do think the OP's being a bit naïve here, but I think it likelier than not that McKenna's still here in August.
There's multiple reasons why which have little to do with McKenna. Firstly, Premier League clubs don't poach managers from other English league clubs very often full stop. There's not a single current incumbent PL manager who got his job in that way and no-one has done it since Autumn 2022 (Potter to Chelsea, Jones to Southampton). Before that the last one was Lampard to Chelsea in 2019.
Secondly, it's big wide world out there and whilst McKenna hype is all we're thinking about in Suffolk, most clubs ultimately look to appoint managers whose achievement are commensurate with their stature. The other candidate being linked heavily to Brighton is the head coach of Nice, he's De Zerbi's former assistant at Sassuolo and just took Nice back in the Europa League. He's objectively less of a risky appointment than KM. Manchester United and Chelsea are potential landing spots for global elite coaches and haven't even sacked their current manager.
Thirdly, most managers don't leave stable jobs most of the time. The kids in school thing might not be a huge factor, but at Ipswich KM has total buy-in for his methods from everyone at the club, infinite credit with the board and fans, his word is gospel. Getting those things is never a given when you move club (look at Graham Potter) and things can go sour very quickly if you don't get them. You have to think very carefully about how many rungs up the ladder makes it worthwhile to lose all that (especially when we're now in a position to be relatively competitive with other Premier League clubs on wages).
[Post edited 19 May 9:59]
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Reply | Sake… pinkun reporting he’s been sacked, or to be very shortly
at 10:42 17 May 2024
Sara they'd get somewhere between £10-20m for.
Sargent, I think they'd be fortunate to make 8 figures really. Seems to be injury prone and his first stint in the Premier League was very poor.
Rowe doesn't have the all-round game to get a PL move. |
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Reply | Al Hamadi and Clarke
at 19:39 16 May 2024
Clarke's got all the athleticism you need to succeed at the top level and hasn't hit his ceiling yet. Think he'll surprise a few next season. |
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Reply | Omari - will he sign?
at 19:15 16 May 2024
I hold out hope.
Hard to see any plausible route to Chelsea's first team for him, so I'm sure he'll go somewhere in the Summer.
He'll have lots of options in the Summer, likely at higher status clubs than us, but who knows what he gets if he goes to Dortmund of similar? Are you guaranteed to get the same minutes you'd get here? Will you enjoy living in Germany? Are the manager/other players a good fit? |
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Reply | This article made me laugh...
at 18:09 16 May 2024
It's portraiture as critique, isn't it? That she looks monstrous is the artist's intent.
Rinehart's had a bit of a Streisand Effect here, it's going to be far more widely seen as a result of her complaining! |
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Reply | Crime: perceptions divorced from reality?
at 17:57 16 May 2024
It is the best possible estimate of what the reality is at a national level.
I think it's astonishing what people will and won't take as reliable evidence, according to what narratives they're wedded to. So, earlier in the thread you're happy to take your own personal perception that crime has gone up (presumably via the rigorous methodology of measuring "vaguely recent incidents you personally experienced or heard about" against "incidents from a while back that you personally can remember"). But a survey of a representative sample of 75,000 people, designed by expert professionals, comparing to data collected over four decades, that doesn't reflect anything about reality at all! |
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Reply | Crime: perceptions divorced from reality?
at 16:48 16 May 2024
As has already been pointed out several times, this thread isn't about Police Reported crime statistics, it's about the annual crime survey, which asks a weighted sample of people whether they've been a victim of crime over the past 12 months (and if so, what crime it was), precisely as a way of getting data that avoids this problem! |
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Reply | Crime: perceptions divorced from reality?
at 16:28 16 May 2024
Not particularly.
Sampling is the ordinary way that societies find out anything at a whole population level. It's just not practical (or cost effective) to survey every single person in the country on a regular basis. This type of methodology is used for everything from market research to political opinion polls.
The sample is designed to be big enough that unusual answers ("outliers") don't affect the data too much and representative enough that it's capturing the experiences of all types of people in the proportion that they exist in society (there's no reason, statistically, to imagine that a significant number of respondents will have unusual experiences of crime). That's basically the only method that exists for gathering this sort of data and making a best estimate of what the trends are. The alternative is to just be ignorant of what's happening!
(Should add, by the way, that no one in the ONS has any incentive to deceive anyone here. They're employed to estimate trends as accurately as possible, by doing representative statistical work. ) [Post edited 16 May 16:42]
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Reply | Crime: perceptions divorced from reality?
at 15:21 16 May 2024
75,000 people is a pretty huge sample for most survey work (national opinion polls are usually 1-2000, for instance), but it's still only 0.1% of the population, so pretty unlikely to be people known personally to you.
People around you appear in these surveys via the surveyers interviewing people who are similar to them in terms of key variables (income, region, ethnicity, gender, age etc.) and weighting their answers in terms of how prevalent that sort of person is in the population as a whole. |
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Reply | Crime: perceptions divorced from reality?
at 14:29 16 May 2024
and indeed one reason we do the census (the only all-population survey) is so people can conduct sample-based statistical work by using it to create and weight their sample! |
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Reply | Crime: perceptions divorced from reality?
at 13:57 16 May 2024
No idea if that is the case, but extremely sceptical that we can boil this down to the idea that people in ward-specific crime-infested hell holes are target voters. There are plenty of affluent people living in posh areas with disproportionate fears of crime that simply isn't happening to them. |
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Reply | Crime: perceptions divorced from reality?
at 13:45 16 May 2024
Sure, experiences of crime do vary, but shouldn't the national politics on crime reflect the national pattern of crime?
Also think it's extremely doubtful that worst end of that variation is experienced by the voters that the main political parties tend to target. |
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Reply | Crime: perceptions divorced from reality?
at 13:25 16 May 2024
I do wonder what it would actually take to persuade people that their perceptions about rising crime were wrong?
As a London resident feel like I'm constantly hearing on social media that Sadiq Khan has turned the city into a cesspit of crime, usually by people who don't live here. Doesn't reflect my anecdotal experience nor does it particularly fit the Met's stats (don't know about crime survey stats). But you can't convince people that your lived experience might be real! |
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