| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:59 - Sep 5 with 6579 views | PhilTWTD |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 08:56 - Sep 5 by Churchman |
Macron is a detestable little man. How it looks to me is that he sees Putin as a friend, Russia as an economic partner and the states on the edge of Russia as a distant and marginal part of France dominated Europe - to be negotiated if necessary. |
Not convinced that's an accurate translation, can't see it in any more reputable media. |  | |  |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 22:16 - Sep 5 with 6548 views | Swansea_Blue |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 08:56 - Sep 5 by Churchman |
Macron is a detestable little man. How it looks to me is that he sees Putin as a friend, Russia as an economic partner and the states on the edge of Russia as a distant and marginal part of France dominated Europe - to be negotiated if necessary. |
I think you’re seeing it wrong. France have been fully supportive; they’re obviously part of the broader EU sanctions, have sent weapons, people and money and taken in considerably more refugees than us. You do seem to have a bee in your bonnet about some other European countries for some reason. |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 22:43 - Sep 5 with 6496 views | Kievthegreat |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:18 - Sep 3 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Hacked or just faulty? |
More likely to be faulty, but a hack would be quite pleasing. |  | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 01:23 - Sep 8 with 6378 views | Swansea_Blue |
Something to bear in mind for those who think Macron is Putin’s ally. Fascinating footage supposedly from the morning of the invasion with Zalensky urging Macron to speak to Putin and try to persuade him to stop the aggression. Yes we all know that it’s unlikely Putin would listen, but it might help explain why Macron is leaving a door open for dialogue. (The likes of Corbyn are aligned to this wish too; but he then spoils it with his NATO bollox).
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:22 - Sep 8 with 6298 views | Eireannach_gorm |
COME ON UKRAINE!!
Russians using Ukrainians to fight against Ukraine.
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 18:36 - Sep 10 with 6205 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 22:16 - Sep 5 by Swansea_Blue |
I think you’re seeing it wrong. France have been fully supportive; they’re obviously part of the broader EU sanctions, have sent weapons, people and money and taken in considerably more refugees than us. You do seem to have a bee in your bonnet about some other European countries for some reason. |
The attached article is quite old now and I can’t be bothered to dig further. It’s not complimentary to the EUs efforts and as the real leader of the EU, that’s within Macron’s sphere.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/whos-really-helping-ukraine-voloymyr-zelensky-franc
I am hostile to the likes of Macron and the German bloke because the former is friends to both and playing at it. All talk trying to play the statesman.
Scholz? Paying for his predecessors grotesque mis judgement, but with his country over a barrel, literally. Any money you like that when it’s over, they’ll be cosying up to get the gas turned as fast as they can. That’s before we get to the promise of one day Germany spending 2% on defence - something it should have done decades ago. The Poles and other sovereign states under threat? Doing their best.
I don’t let the U.K. off lightly either. I’ve yet to hear an explanation as to how and why money laundering through London and Tory party donations were allowed to thrive, even after Crimea and Salisbury. I’ve also yet to hear an explanation for how they square the aggressive rhetoric with 12 years of crippling defence cuts.
But U.K. government incompetence and disgrace does not let of Macron Scholz or whoever is in charge of Italy off the hook. There’s a reason why Zelenski (a true statesman) is suspicious of those three.
Meanwhile, in todays news, there’s a good article about Ukraine’s remarkable counter attacks today. Amazing resilience.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2022/sep/10/ukraine-can-now-expl |  | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 23:51 - Sep 10 with 6138 views | Kropotkin123 |
“It took the Russians six weeks of fighting to get a hold of that city [Izyum], and now it appears that the Ukrainians will have retaken it, in pretty much a 12-to-24-hour timeframe,” Elizondo said.
“It gives you an idea of how the tide is certainly turning. Ukrainians clearly have the momentum in this battle right now in the northeast, as they continue to push the Russian forces back.”
Excellent progress, and with winter coming, it's going to get more difficult for the Russians to sustain their supply chains. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Ukraine retake Melitopol before the new year. Maybe I'm being too optimistic after this, but Russia appear to be cracking.
We need to keep supplying military aid, and hold Germany and France to account. |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:33 - Sep 11 with 6094 views | GlasgowBlue |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:43 - Sep 11 with 5996 views | Kropotkin123 |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:26 - Sep 11 by Nthsuffolkblue |
Is there any possibility of the liberation of Crimea?
That would be a massive bloody nose for Putin and the Russian authorities.
Or am I misunderstanding what you have put? |
I think this is what the other person that GB linked was suggesting, rather than me. I'm suggesting Melitopol is vulnerable, and this causes all of the Russian gains to the west of there to fall, if taken. There is a strong chance that a push on Melitopol would cause Russia to abandon all land to the west, to strengthen Melitopol.
With Crimea, I think it is tough. Russia have used this as a place to supply other areas, so there are routes through. Russia Would likely have to commit to destroying their routes through. This would be significant, as it would create a difficult choke point that Ukraine would likely not get through without big losses OR it means that Russia effectively kills its chances of long-term gains they sort (a land bridge to Crimea) at the start of the war. They would cripple their offensive capabilities, if they committed to defend it (Edit: By destroying access and future supply chains, rather than the relocation of people).
I think the other thing to consider here is that Russia never thought they'd need to defend Crimea, so perhaps they don't have many troops here that are ready to defend. When Ukraine hit Russia's air strips, taking out ~10 planes, the pictures came from beach-goers. So clearly this is not an area ready or set up to defend an advancing army. So maybe this calculation is in their suggestion that Crimea may become a viable target.
For me, there is too many variables to say it is vulnerable. Melitopol is vulnerable. More that if Melitopol falls before Christmas, watch this space for Crimea. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 17:55]
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 00:34 - Sep 12 with 5913 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:43 - Sep 11 by Kropotkin123 |
I think this is what the other person that GB linked was suggesting, rather than me. I'm suggesting Melitopol is vulnerable, and this causes all of the Russian gains to the west of there to fall, if taken. There is a strong chance that a push on Melitopol would cause Russia to abandon all land to the west, to strengthen Melitopol.
With Crimea, I think it is tough. Russia have used this as a place to supply other areas, so there are routes through. Russia Would likely have to commit to destroying their routes through. This would be significant, as it would create a difficult choke point that Ukraine would likely not get through without big losses OR it means that Russia effectively kills its chances of long-term gains they sort (a land bridge to Crimea) at the start of the war. They would cripple their offensive capabilities, if they committed to defend it (Edit: By destroying access and future supply chains, rather than the relocation of people).
I think the other thing to consider here is that Russia never thought they'd need to defend Crimea, so perhaps they don't have many troops here that are ready to defend. When Ukraine hit Russia's air strips, taking out ~10 planes, the pictures came from beach-goers. So clearly this is not an area ready or set up to defend an advancing army. So maybe this calculation is in their suggestion that Crimea may become a viable target.
For me, there is too many variables to say it is vulnerable. Melitopol is vulnerable. More that if Melitopol falls before Christmas, watch this space for Crimea. [Post edited 11 Sep 2022 17:55]
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I think Crimea or Melitopol might be a step to far, but given how abject my predictions have been since day one, who knows.
What is clear is that American weapons and pre war training has made a big difference to Ukraine and Russia seems to be resorting to somewhat desperate measures to get more men without full mobilisation.
The interesting aspect is how long the US can keep supplying Ukraine and whether Western Europe can survive Putins economic war.
For Putin, can he withstand a stalemate or worse going into the winter and are his people still being battered his state run propaganda. His possible. Recent losses are summarised in the attached.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/11/the-russian-army-is-losing-a-ba | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 00:58 - Sep 12 with 5905 views | XYZ |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 00:34 - Sep 12 by Churchman |
I think Crimea or Melitopol might be a step to far, but given how abject my predictions have been since day one, who knows.
What is clear is that American weapons and pre war training has made a big difference to Ukraine and Russia seems to be resorting to somewhat desperate measures to get more men without full mobilisation.
The interesting aspect is how long the US can keep supplying Ukraine and whether Western Europe can survive Putins economic war.
For Putin, can he withstand a stalemate or worse going into the winter and are his people still being battered his state run propaganda. His possible. Recent losses are summarised in the attached.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/11/the-russian-army-is-losing-a-ba |
Some internal wobbles are starting to show ...
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 06:15 - Sep 12 with 5873 views | Kropotkin123 |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 00:34 - Sep 12 by Churchman |
I think Crimea or Melitopol might be a step to far, but given how abject my predictions have been since day one, who knows.
What is clear is that American weapons and pre war training has made a big difference to Ukraine and Russia seems to be resorting to somewhat desperate measures to get more men without full mobilisation.
The interesting aspect is how long the US can keep supplying Ukraine and whether Western Europe can survive Putins economic war.
For Putin, can he withstand a stalemate or worse going into the winter and are his people still being battered his state run propaganda. His possible. Recent losses are summarised in the attached.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/11/the-russian-army-is-losing-a-ba |
I get Crimea, but what do you think would prevent Ukraine from turning on Melitopol from the North?
I don't see anything stopping the Ukrainians. Maybe the numbers to switch, but Russia are retreating so fast in the Northeast they will need a long time to reorganize before they can contemplate any counter offensive. A smaller force can prepare defense now Ukraine have the terrain, supply, and morale advantage.
I can't imagine the Russians haven significantly prepared to defend Melitopol from the north, as geographically they would have assumed it would be well protected, as pushing there would have been a reckless manoeuvre, before the Northeast was retaken.
The majority of Russia's actions when advancing have been to leave infrastructure open, as they never assumed they would be in the retreat. I can't see how Kherson and Melitopol is anything other than over-extension right now.
Surely Russia would need to push to take and hold Dnipro to secure the corridor? And that isn't going to happen unless something changes drastically.
Thanks for the article, an interesting read. Good to get another insight into just how well this counteroffensive has gone. | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 06:36 - Sep 12 with 5871 views | Kropotkin123 |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:33 - Sep 11 by GlasgowBlue |
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This is a really underated post. There is so much depth in there each time you click on something, tonnes more quality information.
Interesting that they suspect Ukraine has three battlegroups and only two have been deployed, meaning an attack on Melitopol wouldn't need a redeployment, if true. | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:58 - Sep 12 with 5836 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 00:58 - Sep 12 by XYZ |
Some internal wobbles are starting to show ...
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This is fascinating. A split between Putin’s blind followers, people who are in denial and those who think something is wrong.
If this went out on state tv, add in the funerals, returning servicemens’ testimony's to the state of Russian military and coming winter could the overwhelming support for Putin and the was start to erode? | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 08:31 - Sep 12 with 5784 views | WeWereZombies |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:58 - Sep 12 by Churchman |
This is fascinating. A split between Putin’s blind followers, people who are in denial and those who think something is wrong.
If this went out on state tv, add in the funerals, returning servicemens’ testimony's to the state of Russian military and coming winter could the overwhelming support for Putin and the was start to erode? |
It is not just Moscow that is questioning the Russian Army at the moment, the leader they parachuted into Chechnya has voiced criticism too:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/11/kadyrov-criticises-russias-stunning-set
Of course this may all be a prelude to a wide scale clearing out of top brass and a new winter offensive - dependant upon the Russian people's toleration for economic hardship and seeing their young men served up as cannon fodder. |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 08:32 - Sep 12 with 5784 views | Churchman |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:58 - Sep 12 by Churchman |
This is fascinating. A split between Putin’s blind followers, people who are in denial and those who think something is wrong.
If this went out on state tv, add in the funerals, returning servicemens’ testimony's to the state of Russian military and coming winter could the overwhelming support for Putin and the was start to erode? |
Being a Russian army commander doesn’t appear to be a job with long term prospects in any shape or form.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-fires-berdnikov-commander | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 13:32 - Sep 12 with 5709 views | GlasgowBlue |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 00:58 - Sep 12 by XYZ |
Some internal wobbles are starting to show ...
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 16:31 - Sep 12 with 5660 views | J2BLUE |
Not far off  |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:03 - Sep 12 with 5642 views | clive_baker |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:33 - Sep 11 by GlasgowBlue |
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He paints a very positive picture, and furth down that thread he even goes as far as suggesting a 'war ending move' could be imminent from Ukraine. I'm sure he's very well respected and knowledgable given his experience but I don't like the tone of his tweets, it's not a Playstation game he's witnessing play out.
Anyhoo, it does feel like the heat is on Putin now after recent events, he's up against a well funded and increasingly skilled Ukrainian army with, crucially, a cause. So many tales of Russian soldiers in horrendous conditions and with low morale. The optimist in me of course hopes these cracks become insurmountable and that Putin falls on his sword, followed by structural change and peace talks. I don't dare to believe that's a realistic possibility yet though. |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 14:18 - Sep 13 with 5503 views | GlasgowBlue |
Fascinating.
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 16:33 - Sep 13 with 5448 views | Kropotkin123 |
When the Queen died, I found it more difficult to navigate websites that I was normally visiting. This forced me to look for alternative trusted sources. I noticed that a lot of the different media outlets referenced the ISW for maps and information, so I decided to check them out. I'm very impressed by the detail in the reports and how they are not seeking to dress up the information with opinions. Reports are daily. Check it out if you haven't seen it before.
https://www.iswresearch.org/2022/09/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_12.htm
Of course, this is a long thread, so I'm sorry if it has been posted before. | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:25 - Sep 13 with 5431 views | Eireannach_gorm |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 14:18 - Sep 13 by GlasgowBlue |
Fascinating.
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The Ukrainians basically sold the Russians a dummy.
They counter attacked around Kherson and the Russians brought experienced reinforcements from the North to oppose the attack. The inexperienced troops left in the North were no use when Ukraine attacked Kharkiv area. Those Russian troops ran away and abandoned their equipment. Most people would would do the same consider their circumstances. Ukraine is now winning the morale battle which in turn will help them win the war. [Post edited 14 Sep 2022 15:24]
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 18:09 - Sep 13 with 5397 views | Eireannach_gorm |
Oooops
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