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Russian soldiers sent Olga Novikova, founder/director of Mariupol film festival video with her captured son demanding to pay 5000 Euro ransom for his life. If not they promised to send video of his execution. links in comments. pic.twitter.com/VBtauH45IZ
Two charming little actresses, Elizabeth and Sonya, of the city theatre of Mariupol. They both performed the role of Lucy in "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe".
The key seems to be Ukraine’s ability to cut Russia’s supply/re-supply (HIMARS etc). Assuming this reporting is reasonably accurate (MOD and US briefings have been to date), what happens next for Putin?
Ragged pleas for men and rounding up convicts is not the answer. Conscription is an admittance of failure and brings with it potential resistance within Russia (who fancies dying for Putin’s project?). You also have to organise and equip them even if you skip the training bit.
One answer might be to try and provoke the west with an act of terror - wreck a nuclear plant, Tactical strike, assassinate a foreign politician, go all out to kill Zelensky and his cohort (the option I’d take).
With China’s Unease, it is getting messy for Putin.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 13:39 - Sep 17 with 6256 views
The key seems to be Ukraine’s ability to cut Russia’s supply/re-supply (HIMARS etc). Assuming this reporting is reasonably accurate (MOD and US briefings have been to date), what happens next for Putin?
Ragged pleas for men and rounding up convicts is not the answer. Conscription is an admittance of failure and brings with it potential resistance within Russia (who fancies dying for Putin’s project?). You also have to organise and equip them even if you skip the training bit.
One answer might be to try and provoke the west with an act of terror - wreck a nuclear plant, Tactical strike, assassinate a foreign politician, go all out to kill Zelensky and his cohort (the option I’d take).
With China’s Unease, it is getting messy for Putin.
If he did successfully assassinate Zelensky, the question is still would someone else step into the void who would be as effective?
Another option is that Russia decides to change tack and Putin is disposed of. There must be a tipping point where that happens.
Putin seems relaxed, but then dictators isolated from events often do. If soldiers are trying to buy clothes, balaclavas, food etc, the question ‘why aren’t the army supplying this?’ Is relevant.
In WW2 when the Russian winter came on the Germans, there were mass public appeals for clothing for the soldiers including including thermals and fur coats. German clothing manufacturing, which was a cottage industry, had neither the capacity, foresight or the resources to supply the army. They froze, just as the Grande Armee did in 1812.
Nothing like this will happen to the Russian forces. They have numbers, resources on their side, but wherever they are moving their forces to, they’re going to need to push on sooner rather than later.
The danger of the counter attack is predictability. The allies learned in WW2 that the Germans would always ferociously counter attack. In Normandy time after time the British/Canadians would push the Germans. They’d counter attack and get hammered. There were 7 of the 10 highest quality SS and Panzer divisions facing the British/Canadians - and they were smashed in the end.
So does Russia stick or twist?
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 03:15 - Sep 19 with 6094 views
Putin seems relaxed, but then dictators isolated from events often do. If soldiers are trying to buy clothes, balaclavas, food etc, the question ‘why aren’t the army supplying this?’ Is relevant.
In WW2 when the Russian winter came on the Germans, there were mass public appeals for clothing for the soldiers including including thermals and fur coats. German clothing manufacturing, which was a cottage industry, had neither the capacity, foresight or the resources to supply the army. They froze, just as the Grande Armee did in 1812.
Nothing like this will happen to the Russian forces. They have numbers, resources on their side, but wherever they are moving their forces to, they’re going to need to push on sooner rather than later.
The danger of the counter attack is predictability. The allies learned in WW2 that the Germans would always ferociously counter attack. In Normandy time after time the British/Canadians would push the Germans. They’d counter attack and get hammered. There were 7 of the 10 highest quality SS and Panzer divisions facing the British/Canadians - and they were smashed in the end.
So does Russia stick or twist?
"Russian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives that continue to advance."
"The Russians cannot hope to make gains around Bakhmut or Donetsk City on a large enough scale to derail Ukrainian counteroffensives and appear to be continuing an almost robotic effort to gain ground in Donetsk Oblast that seems increasingly divorced from the overall realities of the theater."
"Russian failures to rush large-scale reinforcements to eastern Kharkiv and to Luhansk Oblasts leave most of Russian-occupied northeastern Ukraine highly vulnerable to continuing Ukrainian counter-offensives."
If he is relaxed, does this mean his casus belli - The "liberation" of Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast - means very little to him? That the land bridge is the primary target?
Based on his actions and inactions, surely there are only three options - He prioritizes the land bridge and is setting to defend that over the winter, things are so bad that Russia are unable to redeploy defenses, or they are holding something back that none of the analysts are seeing (least likely, given the weapons they lost).
Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top.
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 03:15 - Sep 19 by Kropotkin123
"Russian forces continue to conduct meaningless offensive operations around Donetsk City and Bakhmut instead of focusing on defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives that continue to advance."
"The Russians cannot hope to make gains around Bakhmut or Donetsk City on a large enough scale to derail Ukrainian counteroffensives and appear to be continuing an almost robotic effort to gain ground in Donetsk Oblast that seems increasingly divorced from the overall realities of the theater."
"Russian failures to rush large-scale reinforcements to eastern Kharkiv and to Luhansk Oblasts leave most of Russian-occupied northeastern Ukraine highly vulnerable to continuing Ukrainian counter-offensives."
If he is relaxed, does this mean his casus belli - The "liberation" of Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast - means very little to him? That the land bridge is the primary target?
Based on his actions and inactions, surely there are only three options - He prioritizes the land bridge and is setting to defend that over the winter, things are so bad that Russia are unable to redeploy defenses, or they are holding something back that none of the analysts are seeing (least likely, given the weapons they lost).
Or has Putin temporarily taken his eye off the ball, what with meeting Xi in Samarkand:
It is difficult to know whether he is indulging in these meeting and phone calls because they distract him from the reverses in Ukraine, distract the Russian people from the dance he is leading them or whether there are a hundred other 'regional disputes' that could escalate now that the Russian Army is under threat of a mass redeployment in the Donbas.
It is difficult to know whether he is indulging in these meeting and phone calls because they distract him from the reverses in Ukraine, distract the Russian people from the dance he is leading them or whether there are a hundred other 'regional disputes' that could escalate now that the Russian Army is under threat of a mass redeployment in the Donbas.
In regards to the last paragraph, I think it is the latter.
I don't think he is taking his eye off the ball. Since they lost 9,000km territory, Putin has taken more control. Reports suggest he is deliberately not communicating with the Russian MoD, as they are taking the blame. Yet the MoD are apparently still in charge of the units in Kherson. Add to that you have Chechen units that are apparently using the ethically Rus people as human meat shields for the Chechen solders (sending them to the front to take initial hits). You also have intercepted communications of Russians refusing to fight or be redeployed. And as described in the previous post, Russia's only offensive play at the moment is for strategically useless territory in the Donbas Oblast. All of this paints a picture of a Russian war campaign that is deeply fragmented and will only further fragment unless they can get some sort of structure in place soon.
So perhaps eye on the ball but no clue what to do or having the means to effectively communicate it due to divisions and waiting to see where this third Ukrainian decision turns up.
Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top.
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:01 - Sep 19 by Kropotkin123
In regards to the last paragraph, I think it is the latter.
I don't think he is taking his eye off the ball. Since they lost 9,000km territory, Putin has taken more control. Reports suggest he is deliberately not communicating with the Russian MoD, as they are taking the blame. Yet the MoD are apparently still in charge of the units in Kherson. Add to that you have Chechen units that are apparently using the ethically Rus people as human meat shields for the Chechen solders (sending them to the front to take initial hits). You also have intercepted communications of Russians refusing to fight or be redeployed. And as described in the previous post, Russia's only offensive play at the moment is for strategically useless territory in the Donbas Oblast. All of this paints a picture of a Russian war campaign that is deeply fragmented and will only further fragment unless they can get some sort of structure in place soon.
So perhaps eye on the ball but no clue what to do or having the means to effectively communicate it due to divisions and waiting to see where this third Ukrainian decision turns up.
The issue with Putin taking more control is twofold. Firstly the Russian military seems already to be top heavy so slow to respond. Local initiative is something not on the menu. Controlling quality troops and kit may be part of the reason, but it’s also part of the problem.
Secondly, Putin might be handy in the torture chamber and at operating at a local level, but he’s no more a general than I am. But who is going to question him? I sense the mistakes of history are yet again being repeated in this war.
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:01 - Sep 19 by Kropotkin123
In regards to the last paragraph, I think it is the latter.
I don't think he is taking his eye off the ball. Since they lost 9,000km territory, Putin has taken more control. Reports suggest he is deliberately not communicating with the Russian MoD, as they are taking the blame. Yet the MoD are apparently still in charge of the units in Kherson. Add to that you have Chechen units that are apparently using the ethically Rus people as human meat shields for the Chechen solders (sending them to the front to take initial hits). You also have intercepted communications of Russians refusing to fight or be redeployed. And as described in the previous post, Russia's only offensive play at the moment is for strategically useless territory in the Donbas Oblast. All of this paints a picture of a Russian war campaign that is deeply fragmented and will only further fragment unless they can get some sort of structure in place soon.
So perhaps eye on the ball but no clue what to do or having the means to effectively communicate it due to divisions and waiting to see where this third Ukrainian decision turns up.
Another activity that could be taking up Putin's time is some serious meddling in the political life of other nations:
'Having looked unbeatable just twelve months ago, Draghi’s governing coalition collapsed in July. This has raised questions about the Kremlin’s role in the downfall of one of its principal European opponents. Enrico Letta of the centre-left Democratic Party has alleged that Russian disinformation helped to push Draghi from office, while Mara Carfagna, a prominent face within Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza party has quit over the group’s complicity with Russia. '
It is difficult to know whether he is indulging in these meeting and phone calls because they distract him from the reverses in Ukraine, distract the Russian people from the dance he is leading them or whether there are a hundred other 'regional disputes' that could escalate now that the Russian Army is under threat of a mass redeployment in the Donbas.
Here we go, will take them time to get to the front and even longer to find adequate equipment. They were struggling with supply chains before. I'll be surprised if the can cultivate anything that resembles morale.
People already fleeing Russian too, to avoid conscription. Plane flight sales already in high demand.
Submit your 1-24 league prediction here -https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/514096/page:1 - for the opportunity to get a free Ipswich top.
'Having looked unbeatable just twelve months ago, Draghi’s governing coalition collapsed in July. This has raised questions about the Kremlin’s role in the downfall of one of its principal European opponents. Enrico Letta of the centre-left Democratic Party has alleged that Russian disinformation helped to push Draghi from office, while Mara Carfagna, a prominent face within Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza party has quit over the group’s complicity with Russia. '
A bit left field and with no evidence, I do wonder what influence his crowd had if any in the Brexit vote (debacle), as well as politically volatile but important countries like Italy
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 11:55 - Sep 21 with 5612 views
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 11:44 - Sep 21 by Churchman
A bit left field and with no evidence, I do wonder what influence his crowd had if any in the Brexit vote (debacle), as well as politically volatile but important countries like Italy
Hard evidence has been difficult to come by but I am more inclined to look at United States politics for the evidence (and the continual rearguard action by Trump and his ilk to avoid investigation) of influential right wing lobbyists nudged into authoritarian (and the complex way this interacts with libertarianism is a thesis in itself) common ground with Russia.
This in turn was fed into the extreme right of the Conservative Party, to UKIP and various think tanks. Very difficult to prove second hand, third hand testimony and differentiate that from ideological fellow travellers who sometimes follow the same path but have separate destinations.
The protests are of course tiny but it’ll be interesting to see if it’s reported, particularly on their nutty news channel, the majority of Russians see it and/or continue their support.
Given so few casualties reported by Putin and the victories achieved to date, I would imagine the concern will be more inconvenience than death and they’ll get their numbers pretty easily and willingly. Poor s0ds.
Of course, a good way of keeping news of the front line away from the people is to keep the soldiers in the front line. Maybe promote them to tank crew. Every kids dream to drive tank - and every Russian soldiers nightmare.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 09:15 - Sep 22 with 5478 views
The speech from Putin today is a careful balancing act of a leader under pressure, who is trying to: 1. please hardliners and Russian milbloggers; 2. not displease the general populace; 3. appease the military; 4. give the impression he is not losing a war. 1/20 🧵
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 09:15 - Sep 22 by GlasgowBlue
A good breakdown of Putin’s address yesterday.
The speech from Putin today is a careful balancing act of a leader under pressure, who is trying to: 1. please hardliners and Russian milbloggers; 2. not displease the general populace; 3. appease the military; 4. give the impression he is not losing a war. 1/20 🧵
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 23:36 - Sep 21 by Churchman
The protests are of course tiny but it’ll be interesting to see if it’s reported, particularly on their nutty news channel, the majority of Russians see it and/or continue their support.
Given so few casualties reported by Putin and the victories achieved to date, I would imagine the concern will be more inconvenience than death and they’ll get their numbers pretty easily and willingly. Poor s0ds.
Of course, a good way of keeping news of the front line away from the people is to keep the soldiers in the front line. Maybe promote them to tank crew. Every kids dream to drive tank - and every Russian soldiers nightmare.
Big enough protests if over 1300 were detained. I wonder will the person in the wheelchair be conscripted?!
Interesting that some of the protesters will be in the army from today. Great way of snuffing out opposition. Protest too much and you presumably could wind up in jail then a punishment battalion.
Highly motivated and professional are not words one is going to associate with that lot.
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The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 11:50 - Sep 23 with 5253 views
I read through Lavrov’s drivel. Face like an elephant’s ballbag he may have, but it seems he has the brains of one too. It’s a crude attempt to rewrite history and justify the unjustifiable. It might satisfy his boss and the domestic audience, including the chimps on their state tv, and I guess that’s all it was for. No wonder he slithered out after it.
An interesting article from the Indy on Putin’s nuclear threat. As I see it the only option it is to make it crystal clear to the animal, and most important believable, that if he takes that option it’s all over.
The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 12:19 - Sep 23 by Churchman
I read through Lavrov’s drivel. Face like an elephant’s ballbag he may have, but it seems he has the brains of one too. It’s a crude attempt to rewrite history and justify the unjustifiable. It might satisfy his boss and the domestic audience, including the chimps on their state tv, and I guess that’s all it was for. No wonder he slithered out after it.
An interesting article from the Indy on Putin’s nuclear threat. As I see it the only option it is to make it crystal clear to the animal, and most important believable, that if he takes that option it’s all over.
"Once again, I would like you to take note of the following: Russian and Ukrainian negotiators almost agreed on the settlement terms proposed by Kiev in Istanbul in late March, but tragic events unfolded in Bucha a couple of days later. No one has any doubts that it was a staged performance. Right after this staged act became publicly known, our Western colleagues went hysterical and imposed another package of sanctions on the Russian Federation accusing us of killing civilians. No one has ever mentioned Bucha since the time this propagandistic effect was achieved. No one, but us. Once again, in the presence of the Secretary-General and esteemed ministers, I’m asking you to please get the Ukrainian authorities to take the elementary step of releasing the names of the people whose corpses were shown in Bucha. I’ve been asking for this for several months now. No one seems to hear me or is willing to respond.
Mr Secretary-General,
Please, use your authority to get this done. I think everyone will benefit from clearing up this episode.
The increased activity of international justice in relation to Ukraine has come to our attention. Obscure “efforts” to investigate crimes in Ukraine that are ascribed to the Russian military are being touted, which is undoubtedly a put-up job, which we clearly see."
Olga Skabeyeva:
"The West is using Bucha to legalise future purges in areas previously occupied by the 🇷🇺 army. The people were killed by 🇺🇦 forces because they didn't resist the Russians. The West is thus giving 🇺🇦 approval to extrajudicially kill those they deem traitors" pic.twitter.com/CMMo7IfEyA
On Sunday, Russian state television broadcast video of the dead in Bucha, but in a conspiratorial report that echoed false claims from defense officials in Moscow who mistakenly said two of the figures could be seen moving and so must be crisis actors just pretending to be dead. pic.twitter.com/3kTC58oMIf
"This was done by professionals, probably British. They're the best in the area of information operations. [They know how] to place the bodies correctly, do everything correctly, create a nice picture for the necrophilic Western consciousness" pic.twitter.com/vMNQxZFnHC
"The West is using Bucha to legalise future purges in areas previously occupied by the 🇷🇺 army. The people were killed by 🇺🇦 forces because they didn't resist the Russians. The West is thus giving 🇺🇦 approval to extrajudicially kill those they deem traitors" pic.twitter.com/CMMo7IfEyA
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