| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:45 - Feb 20 with 2506 views | WeWereZombies |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 15:33 - Feb 20 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Yes but that lacks the context of the Russian economy contracting 10pc after beginning the war. The Tories got pelters for saying Britain had the fastest growth post covid - because disingenuously they didn’t mention it was from the lowest base. Same applies here - context is everything.
The central bank rate is at 20pc in Russia as they prop up the Rouble. They’ve also moved to a total war footing, so most of that ‘growth’ is not high margin exports, but shells to be used in eastern Ukraine. There are very few positive metrics coming out of Russia other than it has stabilised, interest rates are crippling, the stock market capitalisation is half what it was at it peak, and they are burning off gas they can’t sell. It’s simply unsustainable in the medium term.
Edited just to add I don’t see any merit in comparing Western GDP growth rates to authoritarian, low wage, low workers rights economies like Russia and China. [Post edited 20 Feb 16:00]
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This is all very interesting but it does not address the points about the structural rearrangement of Russia's economy that Faisal Islam made in the BBC piece. |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:54 - Feb 20 with 2486 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:45 - Feb 20 by WeWereZombies |
This is all very interesting but it does not address the points about the structural rearrangement of Russia's economy that Faisal Islam made in the BBC piece. |
It’s literally the same conclusion? I.e government spending on military equipment is propping up the economy but cannot be sustained long term… |  | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 18:05 - Feb 20 with 2460 views | WeWereZombies |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 17:54 - Feb 20 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
It’s literally the same conclusion? I.e government spending on military equipment is propping up the economy but cannot be sustained long term… |
Except that Islam questions that conclusion and looks at how oil sales to India and China have directly replaced energy sales to Europe, so giving Putin the funds to grind on.
Also worth considering how Russia is extracting mineral wealth from West Africa using the Wagner network there:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68322230
Edited to correct Wager to Wagner. [Post edited 20 Feb 18:08]
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 18:26 - Feb 20 with 2414 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 18:05 - Feb 20 by WeWereZombies |
Except that Islam questions that conclusion and looks at how oil sales to India and China have directly replaced energy sales to Europe, so giving Putin the funds to grind on.
Also worth considering how Russia is extracting mineral wealth from West Africa using the Wagner network there:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68322230
Edited to correct Wager to Wagner. [Post edited 20 Feb 18:08]
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Okay but he’s not the last word on the subject- many others are much more bearish. The price of imported commodities has risen significantly. Putin has wrecked the economy in pursuit of ideology :-
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/12/10/vladimir-putin-is-run
Likewise the sales to China and India have not replaced those lost through sanctions. Russian fossil fuel exports are not forecast to reach pre war levels in the next five years. A report from Harvard suggested Russia’s oil and gas income budget was halved in 2023. [Post edited 20 Feb 18:51]
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 19:50 - Feb 21 with 2338 views | Eireannach_gorm |
Suicide apparently, couldn't stomach the Polonium tea?
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:25 - Feb 25 with 2161 views | Eireannach_gorm |
I deliberately did not post on the 2 year anniversary of the war in Ukraine to see the level of interest in this conflict. Clearly the war is now back page news as Putin wanted.
Reminder of this day two years ago plus one day.
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:41 - Feb 25 with 2142 views | DJR |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:25 - Feb 25 by Eireannach_gorm |
I deliberately did not post on the 2 year anniversary of the war in Ukraine to see the level of interest in this conflict. Clearly the war is now back page news as Putin wanted.
Reminder of this day two years ago plus one day.
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I certainly remember it well not least because my mother died on 2 March 2022 after a very short illness, and one of my abiding memories of her and the war was her concern for the safety of Clive Myrie (whom she liked) in Kyiv. [Post edited 25 Feb 21:47]
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 22:45 - Feb 25 with 2094 views | Kievthegreat |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:25 - Feb 25 by Eireannach_gorm |
I deliberately did not post on the 2 year anniversary of the war in Ukraine to see the level of interest in this conflict. Clearly the war is now back page news as Putin wanted.
Reminder of this day two years ago plus one day.
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It's looking bleak in the short and long term. The lack of ammunition and staying power among Western leadership perfect for Putin. Large chunks of the West have no stomach.
The Ukrainians are able to pick up tactical success in the air and at sea, but they are likely to lose ground next year. Probably not to the extent of a Russian victory, but all initiative in the ground war is with Russia now. Perhaps F16s in the Summer will stop the bleeding, but the most critical thing required is shells. You can't hold a front line with an F16 and some quadcopter drones.
Ukraine's only hope would be to seemingly hold out until November and pray that Biden not only wins the presidency, but gets a hold of Congress as well to allow greater aid, but that will entail 9 months of enormous pain. |  | | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:53 - Feb 27 with 1886 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/02/24/how-many-russian-soldiers-ha
An interesting study of estimated numbers of Russian soldiers killed in the war by two Russian media outlets. This is based on obituaries and inheritance claims which suggest between 66k-88k killed and over 400k wounded (more than the number of soldiers mobilised in the initial invasion).
“According to rusi, a think-tank, the Kremlin believes that the current ratio of personnel attrition can be sustained until the end of 2025”
The West must continue to back Ukraine, despite some resilience, the numbers are not in Russia’s favour over the medium term. | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 23:14 - Feb 27 with 1790 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 22:45 - Feb 25 by Kievthegreat |
It's looking bleak in the short and long term. The lack of ammunition and staying power among Western leadership perfect for Putin. Large chunks of the West have no stomach.
The Ukrainians are able to pick up tactical success in the air and at sea, but they are likely to lose ground next year. Probably not to the extent of a Russian victory, but all initiative in the ground war is with Russia now. Perhaps F16s in the Summer will stop the bleeding, but the most critical thing required is shells. You can't hold a front line with an F16 and some quadcopter drones.
Ukraine's only hope would be to seemingly hold out until November and pray that Biden not only wins the presidency, but gets a hold of Congress as well to allow greater aid, but that will entail 9 months of enormous pain. |
Is any of this because the West have outsourced their industrial base? |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 01:00 - Feb 28 with 1749 views | Eireannach_gorm |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 18:42 - Feb 28 with 1639 views | Eireannach_gorm |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 20:24 - Feb 28 with 1602 views | Eireannach_gorm |
NATO in trouble now!
Maybe not.
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 22:27 - Feb 28 with 1567 views | Nthsuffolkblue |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 21:25 - Feb 25 by Eireannach_gorm |
I deliberately did not post on the 2 year anniversary of the war in Ukraine to see the level of interest in this conflict. Clearly the war is now back page news as Putin wanted.
Reminder of this day two years ago plus one day.
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There are those who are working to keep it in the news.
I am finding it very hard continuing to follow it. Amazing resolve of those who have no choice but to live it. Well done for continuing to remind us of it, too. |  |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 22:32 - Feb 28 with 1563 views | Kievthegreat |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 23:14 - Feb 27 by BanksterDebtSlave |
Is any of this because the West have outsourced their industrial base? |
Doesn't help, but at the same time, Western governments and arms manufacturers haven't shown anywhere near the urgency to increase supply*. It's possible that North Korea is churning out more 152mm shells than the west does 155mm right now. Given the economic disparity, it's bloody comical.
*by supply, I mean production. Giving Ukraine shells from a storage is great in the short term, but it was only ever a short term fix. [Post edited 28 Feb 22:34]
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 12:32 - Feb 29 with 1479 views | EdwardStone |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 22:27 - Feb 28 by Nthsuffolkblue |
There are those who are working to keep it in the news.
I am finding it very hard continuing to follow it. Amazing resolve of those who have no choice but to live it. Well done for continuing to remind us of it, too. |
Indeed, much kudos to the few stalwarts who keep this topic afloat in the forum.
I always follow with interest and sadness that this wretched chapter in European history has gone on for so long and concern that the momentum seems to be favouring the Forces of Pure Evil as the Trumpies effectively end the US support.
For anyone interested, Mumsnet actually has a very good long-running thread on this topic with some very knowledgable contributors....ex-Air Force pilot, some Finnish people and a fair few Ukrainians offering their take on various aspects.
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4993160-ukraine-invasion-part-47?page=31& [Post edited 29 Feb 18:07]
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 10:39 - Mar 5 with 1150 views | Kievthegreat |
Another Russian ship struck.
Seems to have been sunk, but I don't think it's officially confirmed.
This is not an old ship as it was only built a few years ago and appears (according to the ever reliable wikipedia) that it may have only been commissioned during the war. Didn't have a long and fruitful life! | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 10:55 - Mar 5 with 1139 views | EdwardStone |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 10:39 - Mar 5 by Kievthegreat |
Another Russian ship struck.
Seems to have been sunk, but I don't think it's officially confirmed.
This is not an old ship as it was only built a few years ago and appears (according to the ever reliable wikipedia) that it may have only been commissioned during the war. Didn't have a long and fruitful life! |
Part of the Russian "justification" for hanging on to Crimea was because it was the base for the Black Sea Fleet..... they would never give up Sevastopol.
Ukraine's innovative solution to this problem has been simple but effective
Send the whole Black Sea Fleet to Davey Jones Locker
Top Work Ukraine | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 22:33 - Mar 6 with 1021 views | WeWereZombies |
There was a Storyville documentary about the people of Mariupol which has now gone off the BBC iPlayer (but these things do sometimes come back, I urge you to give it a watch if it does) and I was interested enough to pick out this latest from my trawl through the World's news networks:
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/backstories/3122/
'The situation in Mariupol, cut off from the world beyond Russia and its military, remained largely unclear until February, when an in-depth report offered some sobering insights.' | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 07:51 - Mar 7 with 938 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 12:32 - Feb 29 by EdwardStone |
Indeed, much kudos to the few stalwarts who keep this topic afloat in the forum.
I always follow with interest and sadness that this wretched chapter in European history has gone on for so long and concern that the momentum seems to be favouring the Forces of Pure Evil as the Trumpies effectively end the US support.
For anyone interested, Mumsnet actually has a very good long-running thread on this topic with some very knowledgable contributors....ex-Air Force pilot, some Finnish people and a fair few Ukrainians offering their take on various aspects.
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4993160-ukraine-invasion-part-47?page=31& [Post edited 29 Feb 18:07]
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Not just Trump and the Republicans, but a reminder that Europe also have divisions over aid to Ukraine. Despite hawkish rhetoric from Macron, military and humanitarian aid lags well behind the UK, and many of those on the frontier with Russia-:
0According to widely cited figures collected by the Kiel Institute, a think-tank in Germany, France has committed just €1.8bn ($1.94bn) in aid to Ukraine, including €640m of military assistance. The institute puts it in 14th place among allies. On Kiel’s count, its total pledges, military, economic and humanitarian, add up to around 0.1% of gdp, a dismal figure compared with 0.5% for Britain, 0.6% for Germany and a remarkable 3.6% for Estonia.”
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/02/29/france-and-germany-are-at-loggerhead
Germany famously provided Ukraine with some mouldy and unusable missiles earlier in the conflict. This is a war of aggression on Europes doorstep,-and it’s concerning that the major economic and military powers (other than Poland) are not committing sufficient resources. | | | |
| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 15:02 - Mar 12 with 772 views | WeWereZombies |
Something's up - but whether this will be a Prigozhin level failure, less than that or a more comprehensive rebellion against Putin remains to be seen:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68541911 | |
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| The 'special military operation' continues to reach new lows. on 15:41 - Mar 12 with 739 views | Eireannach_gorm |
.................... and in Transnistria ( Moldova }.
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