| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. 11:21 - Dec 17 with 1558 views | NthQldITFC |
Massive flooding going on there right now and another day of it to come. Hope any friends or rellies you've got out there are doing OK. Over a metre of rainfall in a week, over 600mm in 24 hours in places - they have the infrastructure to cope with normal and exceptional Wets, but we're into new territory now.
Perhaps hits home a bit more when it's a familiar, Anglophone place, but ladies and gents, it's the whole world we need to worry about.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-17/far-north-queensland-flooding-tropical-cy [Post edited 17 Dec 2023 11:23]
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| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 14:14 - Dec 17 with 1430 views | CoachRob |
I echo what you have said about anybody who has relatives out in this area of Australia and hope the authorities have the resources to cope.
Andrew Kruczkiewicz and colleagues have studied riverine and flash flooding extensively, particularly in vulnerable areas such as refugee camps, and this could lead to better early warning systems in the future. Despite the improving science in this area the point you make about infrastructure is a real concern as we reach the limit of adaptation.
This reality that our infrastructure is under threat puts into context the idiotic assumption of William Nordhaus, repeated by Arendt and Tol in IPCC AR5 WG2, that 87% of the economy would be unaffected by climate change because it happens carefully controlled environments, indoors basically. Simon Sharpe used to go round and tell economics undergraduates how Nordhaus simply made up the data for his models and this crap won Nordhaus the top prize in economics. In a recent presentation by Simon Dietz, a climate economist at LSE, he stated that economists were no longer making up the data, but were using historical data to assess the economic damages of tipping points - what could possibly go wrong with that? Do these people know any physics at all?
Nordhaus recently won a prize at the Energy Intelligence Forum(Oil and Gas Conference), the very event Greta Thunberg was arrested for protesting. Nordhaus is often referenced by climate deniers such as Bjorn Lomborg, Ben Shapiro and Alex Epstein to downplay the risks of climate change. These people drive my colleagues and I nuts with this dangerous, hubristic nonsense, they are dwindling in numbers now so hopefully this rubbish will stop being legitimised by the IPCC and confined to economics journals that nobody reads.
Tol has his own Desmog page just to top it off.
https://www.desmog.com/richard-tol/ |  | | |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 14:34 - Dec 17 with 1399 views | NthQldITFC |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 14:14 - Dec 17 by CoachRob |
I echo what you have said about anybody who has relatives out in this area of Australia and hope the authorities have the resources to cope.
Andrew Kruczkiewicz and colleagues have studied riverine and flash flooding extensively, particularly in vulnerable areas such as refugee camps, and this could lead to better early warning systems in the future. Despite the improving science in this area the point you make about infrastructure is a real concern as we reach the limit of adaptation.
This reality that our infrastructure is under threat puts into context the idiotic assumption of William Nordhaus, repeated by Arendt and Tol in IPCC AR5 WG2, that 87% of the economy would be unaffected by climate change because it happens carefully controlled environments, indoors basically. Simon Sharpe used to go round and tell economics undergraduates how Nordhaus simply made up the data for his models and this crap won Nordhaus the top prize in economics. In a recent presentation by Simon Dietz, a climate economist at LSE, he stated that economists were no longer making up the data, but were using historical data to assess the economic damages of tipping points - what could possibly go wrong with that? Do these people know any physics at all?
Nordhaus recently won a prize at the Energy Intelligence Forum(Oil and Gas Conference), the very event Greta Thunberg was arrested for protesting. Nordhaus is often referenced by climate deniers such as Bjorn Lomborg, Ben Shapiro and Alex Epstein to downplay the risks of climate change. These people drive my colleagues and I nuts with this dangerous, hubristic nonsense, they are dwindling in numbers now so hopefully this rubbish will stop being legitimised by the IPCC and confined to economics journals that nobody reads.
Tol has his own Desmog page just to top it off.
https://www.desmog.com/richard-tol/ |
'...Nordhaus simply made up the data for his models and this crap won Nordhaus the top prize in economics'
That economics top prize was announced as £1,000 plus or minus £2,000 (close enough) by expert economists, who were pleased to hear that their pseudo-science was a kind of science, and not at all worried that they might get "sued, oh!"
The fact that we generally tend to make decisions based on maintaining a growth-focussed economy, whilst we ignore actual science is somewhat irrational unless your depth of view is very short. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 15:35 - Dec 17 with 1336 views | giant_stow |
I went years back and in Trinity Beach and Cape Tribulation, found two places which felt close to paradise.
Feel for them big time. |  |
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| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 15:44 - Dec 17 with 1314 views | NthQldITFC |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 15:35 - Dec 17 by giant_stow |
I went years back and in Trinity Beach and Cape Tribulation, found two places which felt close to paradise.
Feel for them big time. |
I've got relatives in Trinity Beach who are right now hoping that the house is not compromised overnight. They have friends who had to be rescued from their homes a bit down the coast earlier. Like nothing they've seen before apparently. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 15:49 - Dec 17 with 1296 views | giant_stow |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 15:44 - Dec 17 by NthQldITFC |
I've got relatives in Trinity Beach who are right now hoping that the house is not compromised overnight. They have friends who had to be rescued from their homes a bit down the coast earlier. Like nothing they've seen before apparently. |
Really sorry to hear that fella. I wish them well. Sounds terrifying. | |
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| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 17:42 - Dec 17 with 1243 views | NthQldITFC |
She needs to get out of there!
EDIT: apologies if blasphemy offended anyone. [Post edited 17 Dec 2023 17:45]
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| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 21:09 - Dec 17 with 1173 views | Swansea_Blue |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 17:42 - Dec 17 by NthQldITFC |
She needs to get out of there!
EDIT: apologies if blasphemy offended anyone. [Post edited 17 Dec 2023 17:45]
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A Darwin Award in the making. What’s wrong with people these days? So interested in filming for social media that she’s not twigged what position she’s in. Just nuts.
Sounds horrendous over there. We went about 15 years ago - it was fantastic. Started off in Cairns with a work conference for the Mrs and then hired a camper and went up to Port Douglas and Cape Trib, inland to Chillagoe, Undara NP and down to Townsville.
I had an amazing week’s diving on a live aboard while the Mrs was in here conference. It was a mind blowing trip for all sorts of reasons. |  |
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| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 22:29 - Dec 17 with 1113 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 17:42 - Dec 17 by NthQldITFC |
She needs to get out of there!
EDIT: apologies if blasphemy offended anyone. [Post edited 17 Dec 2023 17:45]
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Just a reminder for any climate change deniers/posters sponsored by the Saudi oil industry:
It is the middle of Summer in Australia. This isn't a Winter storm. |  | | |
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| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 22:38 - Dec 17 with 1095 views | urbanblue |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 22:29 - Dec 17 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Just a reminder for any climate change deniers/posters sponsored by the Saudi oil industry:
It is the middle of Summer in Australia. This isn't a Winter storm. |
It is the middle of the rainy/,cyclone season which is in Summer.
Winters are dry and mild. |  | | |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 00:41 - Dec 18 with 1022 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 22:38 - Dec 17 by urbanblue |
It is the middle of the rainy/,cyclone season which is in Summer.
Winters are dry and mild. |
Ah. Effing big place Australia- I didn't realise there was a full on cyclone zone. | | | |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 02:10 - Dec 18 with 992 views | urbanblue |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 00:41 - Dec 18 by ArnoldMoorhen |
Ah. Effing big place Australia- I didn't realise there was a full on cyclone zone. |
Unfortunately, although this one's a bit worse it is not the first time and most certainly not the last time Queensland will experience severe rainfall and flooding. It's tropical. I've been far north three times in Summer and won't do it again ... each time because it's been so cheap and I got lucky the first time and hoped to again. The following times it was humid beyond belief, virtual torrential rain and hardly left the hotel.
To say this is solely due to Climate Change is a bit misleading. It would be like saying Wow, look at the heat in Dubai ... climate change. Or ... in Iceland in Winter. OMG ... look at the snow. Climate change. Cyclones and rain are normal. It just depends how severe they are.
I found this list of Australia's worst floods in history and it goes back to the 1800's. Number 1 is the floods of 2022. I live in the Northern Rivers and was right in the centre if the disaster. I've never experienced anything like the destruction and tragedy I saw then. It happened at the same time as the invasion of Ukraine so didn't get into the news so much but it was massive. I actually welled up and had tears in my eyes when I saw how decimated peoples homes were. The city of Lismore was destroyed and is only now starting to come back to life.
Of course, this is a tragedy and we have to send all our wishes and sympathy to everyone who is suffering up there. I know what they are going through.
https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/history-culture/2012/03/australia [Post edited 18 Dec 2023 2:12]
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| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 08:30 - Dec 18 with 877 views | NthQldITFC |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 02:10 - Dec 18 by urbanblue |
Unfortunately, although this one's a bit worse it is not the first time and most certainly not the last time Queensland will experience severe rainfall and flooding. It's tropical. I've been far north three times in Summer and won't do it again ... each time because it's been so cheap and I got lucky the first time and hoped to again. The following times it was humid beyond belief, virtual torrential rain and hardly left the hotel.
To say this is solely due to Climate Change is a bit misleading. It would be like saying Wow, look at the heat in Dubai ... climate change. Or ... in Iceland in Winter. OMG ... look at the snow. Climate change. Cyclones and rain are normal. It just depends how severe they are.
I found this list of Australia's worst floods in history and it goes back to the 1800's. Number 1 is the floods of 2022. I live in the Northern Rivers and was right in the centre if the disaster. I've never experienced anything like the destruction and tragedy I saw then. It happened at the same time as the invasion of Ukraine so didn't get into the news so much but it was massive. I actually welled up and had tears in my eyes when I saw how decimated peoples homes were. The city of Lismore was destroyed and is only now starting to come back to life.
Of course, this is a tragedy and we have to send all our wishes and sympathy to everyone who is suffering up there. I know what they are going through.
https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/history-culture/2012/03/australia [Post edited 18 Dec 2023 2:12]
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Cyclones and rain are normal, but Climate Change means increased energy in the oceans and that extra energy feeds 'normal' cyclones to make them bigger and stronger and wetter and will be the seed cause of some cyclones which would not have occurred in a 'normal' world.
A bit like a football team: Vaclav Hladky is Climate Change. The way he has changed ITFC with his ball control and drawing in of opposition forwards has created the space in midfield which typically allows us to pull teams apart and create the space for Leif Davis to run into and deliver a perfect ball in for Wes Burns to bend the best goal ever into the top corner.
Wes' goal was the best ever and that particular goal might have happened had Vaz just 'got rid of it' and hoofed it up to Wes to run onto - we'll never know - but the fact that we are scoring so many goals like that is obviously heavily contributed to by the way Vaz has changed the underlying system.
In the same way, good scientists, trust in whom depends on their honesty and transparency (unlike politicians and edge lords) will say "we can't precisely ascribe this particular event to Climate Change, but we know that Climate Change is creating the environment for more and worse versions of these events to happen". And more and worse versions of these events are happening all around the world as all the records show, and as easy to access metrics like Sea Surface Temperature trends and anomalies show.
I didn't read your post as being denialist as such, but I think it's important to respond and clarify when you see phrases like 'Cyclones and rain are normal' (which I know I've taken out of context a little), because there are still people out there who without understanding the first thing about the science are still spouting dangerous denialist crap - they're all over Twitter for example, whilst Cairns is under water. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 10:05 - Dec 18 with 834 views | urbanblue |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 08:30 - Dec 18 by NthQldITFC |
Cyclones and rain are normal, but Climate Change means increased energy in the oceans and that extra energy feeds 'normal' cyclones to make them bigger and stronger and wetter and will be the seed cause of some cyclones which would not have occurred in a 'normal' world.
A bit like a football team: Vaclav Hladky is Climate Change. The way he has changed ITFC with his ball control and drawing in of opposition forwards has created the space in midfield which typically allows us to pull teams apart and create the space for Leif Davis to run into and deliver a perfect ball in for Wes Burns to bend the best goal ever into the top corner.
Wes' goal was the best ever and that particular goal might have happened had Vaz just 'got rid of it' and hoofed it up to Wes to run onto - we'll never know - but the fact that we are scoring so many goals like that is obviously heavily contributed to by the way Vaz has changed the underlying system.
In the same way, good scientists, trust in whom depends on their honesty and transparency (unlike politicians and edge lords) will say "we can't precisely ascribe this particular event to Climate Change, but we know that Climate Change is creating the environment for more and worse versions of these events to happen". And more and worse versions of these events are happening all around the world as all the records show, and as easy to access metrics like Sea Surface Temperature trends and anomalies show.
I didn't read your post as being denialist as such, but I think it's important to respond and clarify when you see phrases like 'Cyclones and rain are normal' (which I know I've taken out of context a little), because there are still people out there who without understanding the first thing about the science are still spouting dangerous denialist crap - they're all over Twitter for example, whilst Cairns is under water. |
Yes, I understand your need to maybe clarify things and it's a good post.
I'm not a denialist but do get frustrated that these type of events are often labelled as being SOLELY due to Climate change and the indication is that it wouldn't have happened otherwise.
Our friend Arnold Moorhen appeared to have gone down this path and I felt that it needed to be pointed out that flooding and cyclones are not uncommon in a tropical climate. | | | |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 12:50 - Dec 18 with 785 views | stonojnr |
got some relatives who live in Trinity beach, think their place got hit badly the last cyclone or the one before that,but I remember the Townsville flooding in 2019 that looked insane levels of water, probably wont know till after Christmas how theyve got on this time but theyve been through it enough times they know when to get out, and not take risks, so fingers crossed theyre ok.
but their place is on top of a really steep hill, and is still on stilts, so the living area is "upstairs", garage downstairs, because of the risk of flooding and cyclones, and theyre on a hill ffs.
some of the problems if the flooding and damage wasnt bad enough, the local wildlife goes for a swim, so youve got crocs, and snakes ending up in places you dont expect. | | | |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 13:06 - Dec 18 with 763 views | NthQldITFC |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 10:05 - Dec 18 by urbanblue |
Yes, I understand your need to maybe clarify things and it's a good post.
I'm not a denialist but do get frustrated that these type of events are often labelled as being SOLELY due to Climate change and the indication is that it wouldn't have happened otherwise.
Our friend Arnold Moorhen appeared to have gone down this path and I felt that it needed to be pointed out that flooding and cyclones are not uncommon in a tropical climate. |
You're quite right about all of that of course, and yes we're now well into the Wet.
But the situation is SO dire in terms of the momentum of the build up of greenhouse gases and the consequent build up of stored energy in the Earth's oceans and the consequent increase in frequency and severity of events like these floods that we MUST err on the side of caution (not really sure if that's a suitable word here) and it's much better to assume that is Climate Change-driven rather than quibble over unknowable detail. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 13:09 - Dec 18 with 755 views | ArnoldMoorhen |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 10:05 - Dec 18 by urbanblue |
Yes, I understand your need to maybe clarify things and it's a good post.
I'm not a denialist but do get frustrated that these type of events are often labelled as being SOLELY due to Climate change and the indication is that it wouldn't have happened otherwise.
Our friend Arnold Moorhen appeared to have gone down this path and I felt that it needed to be pointed out that flooding and cyclones are not uncommon in a tropical climate. |
And I then immediately acknowledged that I had been corrected, which is the most important factor so often missing in the "Climate change" debate. | | | |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 13:16 - Dec 18 with 747 views | NthQldITFC |
| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 13:09 - Dec 18 by ArnoldMoorhen |
And I then immediately acknowledged that I had been corrected, which is the most important factor so often missing in the "Climate change" debate. |
Very good point. | |
| # WE ARE STEALING THE FUTURE FROM OUR CHILDREN --- WE MUST CHANGE COURSE # | | Poll: | It's driving me nuts |
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| I guess many of us here are familiar with Cairns and Far North Queensland. on 15:00 - Dec 18 with 687 views | BlueForYou |
Have some friends who are west of Townsville. Dont think they've had any issues there this time. I lived in Townsville during the early 80's & remember two weeks really heavy rain caused by a cyclone, incredible amounts of water, was two feet of rain I'm sure I remember & because its so hot the humidity is unbearable. The problem is exacerbated by the high ranges just inland which funnels the water towards the coast & overwhelms coastal towns. That area has always been cyclone alley. |  | | |
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