| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 22:36 - Apr 13 with 1096 views | BloomBlue |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 22:20 - Apr 13 by BanksterDebtSlave |
That part of the conflict was and has always been dealt with via a bit of tit for tat gesturing. The Yahoo decided to attack a diplomatic space regarded as sovereign territory because he wants a wider conflict. You have even acknowledged that he is trying to extend his political life yet refuse to see the obvious....bizarre! |
Iran didn't want Israel and Saudi to sign that agreement, which is why Iran instigated the Hamas Oct attack to create a conflict in the Middle East. You refuse to see the obvious. Iran wanted this. |  | |  |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 23:16 - Apr 13 with 1038 views | BanksterDebtSlave |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 22:36 - Apr 13 by BloomBlue |
Iran didn't want Israel and Saudi to sign that agreement, which is why Iran instigated the Hamas Oct attack to create a conflict in the Middle East. You refuse to see the obvious. Iran wanted this. |
Lol...a plan that would have fallen flat if the Yahoo hadn't reacted with a huge knee jerk! So probably not a plan at all. |  |
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| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 09:46 - Apr 15 with 919 views | jayessess |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 22:14 - Apr 13 by GlasgowBlue |
For 6 months Israel's entire northern population has been evacuated because Iran, via its proxy Hezbollah, has launched 1000's of rockets into the area.
But yeah. It's definitely Israel's fault. |
Speaking of simplistic takes, the idea that every other actor in the Middle East is a "proxy" for Iran isn't a terribly helpful one. Whatever involvement Iran has in Hezbollah, Hamas or Houthis, these terrorist groups don't appear out of thin air because the Iranian regime wills it. They are products of the actual political context of Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen. |  |
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| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 10:47 - Apr 15 with 875 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 09:46 - Apr 15 by jayessess |
Speaking of simplistic takes, the idea that every other actor in the Middle East is a "proxy" for Iran isn't a terribly helpful one. Whatever involvement Iran has in Hezbollah, Hamas or Houthis, these terrorist groups don't appear out of thin air because the Iranian regime wills it. They are products of the actual political context of Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen. |
You missed Syria and Iraq also. They are Shia militias, some from Iran, others nationals in the countries in which they are causing conflict. They have taken hold in areas with weak or absence of governance (hence their proliferation after the Arab Spring). The reasons for the power vacuums which have led to their success’ are complex but their cause is a simple one - to project Iranian (and Shia) power in the region.
Hezbollah for instance can operate with impunity in Lebanon, not because the Lebanese government wants them to, but because Hezbollah are better armed than many states in the region. They are not driving round on pickups with automatic rifles, they have drones, guided missiles, and heavy artillery. The Houthi’s were armed and trained by the Iranians in order to overthrow the Yemeni government and instal a Shia/Iranian puppet regime. A coalition or Arab states led by Saudi have attempted to back and reinstall the exiled government. The Houthi’s control much of the coast, and even prior to their attacks on shipping have used starvation as a weapon against Yemeni citizens by blocking and requisitioning aid.
The above is all well documented, even outside Western sources. I’m not sure why you put proxy in inverted commas. |  | | |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 11:01 - Apr 15 with 832 views | jayessess |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 10:47 - Apr 15 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
You missed Syria and Iraq also. They are Shia militias, some from Iran, others nationals in the countries in which they are causing conflict. They have taken hold in areas with weak or absence of governance (hence their proliferation after the Arab Spring). The reasons for the power vacuums which have led to their success’ are complex but their cause is a simple one - to project Iranian (and Shia) power in the region.
Hezbollah for instance can operate with impunity in Lebanon, not because the Lebanese government wants them to, but because Hezbollah are better armed than many states in the region. They are not driving round on pickups with automatic rifles, they have drones, guided missiles, and heavy artillery. The Houthi’s were armed and trained by the Iranians in order to overthrow the Yemeni government and instal a Shia/Iranian puppet regime. A coalition or Arab states led by Saudi have attempted to back and reinstall the exiled government. The Houthi’s control much of the coast, and even prior to their attacks on shipping have used starvation as a weapon against Yemeni citizens by blocking and requisitioning aid.
The above is all well documented, even outside Western sources. I’m not sure why you put proxy in inverted commas. |
I've put proxy in inverted commas because, again, these organisations aren't simply projections of Iranian influence. Hezbollah is a particularly strange example to pick to illustrate that point because it's political influence in Lebanon long predates ideas of Iran as global puppet master. It's also a political party with genuine domestic support, reflected across multiple Lebanese elections over a very long period.
Turning round and declaring everything in the Middle East to be a product of Iran's malign influence isn't a way of actually understanding the social and political forces that shape the region. Much like how in the Cold War deciding every trade unionist and left-wing political activist from Seoul to Santiago was taking orders direct from Moscow, it skirts past the actual local conditions that form political movements in favour of conspiratorial thinking. | |
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| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 11:13 - Apr 15 with 801 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 11:01 - Apr 15 by jayessess |
I've put proxy in inverted commas because, again, these organisations aren't simply projections of Iranian influence. Hezbollah is a particularly strange example to pick to illustrate that point because it's political influence in Lebanon long predates ideas of Iran as global puppet master. It's also a political party with genuine domestic support, reflected across multiple Lebanese elections over a very long period.
Turning round and declaring everything in the Middle East to be a product of Iran's malign influence isn't a way of actually understanding the social and political forces that shape the region. Much like how in the Cold War deciding every trade unionist and left-wing political activist from Seoul to Santiago was taking orders direct from Moscow, it skirts past the actual local conditions that form political movements in favour of conspiratorial thinking. |
That may have been the origins of Hezbollah but they do not have wide support in Lebanon these days:-
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2321721/amp
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/lebanon-poll-shows-drop-hezb
They generally only have some support from the Shia minority. To suggest that they are not now a projection of Iranian influence and power simply flies in the face of all available evidence, any source will tell you this. Iran have provided them with training, 100,000 rockets, heavy artillery, military intelligence, and $700m a year of funding. If that is not influence then I don’t know how you are defining it. | | | |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 11:30 - Apr 15 with 766 views | tractorboy2421 |
So you're saying that isreal is basically using a gun ho attitude?? Hamas is widely recognised as a terrorist organisation, the latest troubles were the result of their actions. Iran are known to harbour terroists, they are looking to stir up hatred & surely isreal has the right to defend herself or is that not allowed ?? |  | | |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 12:00 - Apr 15 with 722 views | noggin |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 11:30 - Apr 15 by tractorboy2421 |
So you're saying that isreal is basically using a gun ho attitude?? Hamas is widely recognised as a terrorist organisation, the latest troubles were the result of their actions. Iran are known to harbour terroists, they are looking to stir up hatred & surely isreal has the right to defend herself or is that not allowed ?? |
Yeah we're seeing Israel 'defend itself' in Gaza apparently. How many children slaughtered now? |  |
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| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 12:04 - Apr 15 with 701 views | jayessess |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 11:13 - Apr 15 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
That may have been the origins of Hezbollah but they do not have wide support in Lebanon these days:-
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2321721/amp
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/lebanon-poll-shows-drop-hezb
They generally only have some support from the Shia minority. To suggest that they are not now a projection of Iranian influence and power simply flies in the face of all available evidence, any source will tell you this. Iran have provided them with training, 100,000 rockets, heavy artillery, military intelligence, and $700m a year of funding. If that is not influence then I don’t know how you are defining it. |
The poll you've cited there has 89% of the Shia population holding at least somewhat positive views of Hezbollah (despite a recent decline in support).
There are lots of states that dole out aid and weapons in the Middle East to other states and military organisations that align with their aims. The United States gives out considerably larger military aid packages to Egypt, Jordan, (the previous government of) Yemen and Israel, but it's not useful to understand those countries as proxies of the US government either. Not to say none of this influences anything, but these institutions don't have their political priorities dictated by DC and if you spend your time going "actor X does Y because their bosses in Tehran/Washington tell them to" you're never really going to understand anything well. It just isn't how things work in geo-politics (and leads easily to a pretty Manichean worldview, in which peace or a stable world order of any kind becomes impossible). [Post edited 15 Apr 12:18]
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| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 12:32 - Apr 15 with 644 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 12:04 - Apr 15 by jayessess |
The poll you've cited there has 89% of the Shia population holding at least somewhat positive views of Hezbollah (despite a recent decline in support).
There are lots of states that dole out aid and weapons in the Middle East to other states and military organisations that align with their aims. The United States gives out considerably larger military aid packages to Egypt, Jordan, (the previous government of) Yemen and Israel, but it's not useful to understand those countries as proxies of the US government either. Not to say none of this influences anything, but these institutions don't have their political priorities dictated by DC and if you spend your time going "actor X does Y because their bosses in Tehran/Washington tell them to" you're never really going to understand anything well. It just isn't how things work in geo-politics (and leads easily to a pretty Manichean worldview, in which peace or a stable world order of any kind becomes impossible). [Post edited 15 Apr 12:18]
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Exactly- 89pc of a 32pc minority is hardly evidence of popular support.
If the last few months have tought us anything, the US has very limited influence on the actions of others in the region. The same argument cannot be made of Iran - framing it as ‘doling out aid and weapons’ is deliberately understating the training, intelligence, and logistical support they provide. If you take the Houthi’s for example, Iran are providing the locations of ships for which to attack. The knock-on of which has seen children in starvation. That goes far beyond providing a few dollars and assault rifles to ‘freedom fighters’.
To try and argue that these groups are just a disparate bunch of militiants with a few dollars in their pocket, rather than heavily armed, Shia radical proxies of Iran just flies in the face of all evidence. It’s dishonest post-truth level stuff. [Post edited 15 Apr 12:45]
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| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 13:01 - Apr 15 with 595 views | jayessess |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 12:32 - Apr 15 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Exactly- 89pc of a 32pc minority is hardly evidence of popular support.
If the last few months have tought us anything, the US has very limited influence on the actions of others in the region. The same argument cannot be made of Iran - framing it as ‘doling out aid and weapons’ is deliberately understating the training, intelligence, and logistical support they provide. If you take the Houthi’s for example, Iran are providing the locations of ships for which to attack. The knock-on of which has seen children in starvation. That goes far beyond providing a few dollars and assault rifles to ‘freedom fighters’.
To try and argue that these groups are just a disparate bunch of militiants with a few dollars in their pocket, rather than heavily armed, Shia radical proxies of Iran just flies in the face of all evidence. It’s dishonest post-truth level stuff. [Post edited 15 Apr 12:45]
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Think this is getting absurd now. It's not "dishonest" or "post-truth" to argue that an organisation that's been implanted in Lebanese civic life for decades, with some degree of support from across one third of the population, should be understood in terms of the political and social context of Lebanese politics, not just as a projection of Iran. It's essentially the academic consensus amongst scholars of the region (see for instance, the work of Augustus Norton, Dominique Avon, Josh Daher).
People love to have their little simple narratives about the world and can't engage with the slightest bit of nuance or complexity around them without getting abusive about it. | |
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| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 13:29 - Apr 15 with 553 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 13:01 - Apr 15 by jayessess |
Think this is getting absurd now. It's not "dishonest" or "post-truth" to argue that an organisation that's been implanted in Lebanese civic life for decades, with some degree of support from across one third of the population, should be understood in terms of the political and social context of Lebanese politics, not just as a projection of Iran. It's essentially the academic consensus amongst scholars of the region (see for instance, the work of Augustus Norton, Dominique Avon, Josh Daher).
People love to have their little simple narratives about the world and can't engage with the slightest bit of nuance or complexity around them without getting abusive about it. |
Firstly I apologise if you feel that was abusive, it was not intended as such and I always aim to be civil. As I said earlier their power base is well beyond their level of support in the country:-
“is able to operate without the accountability required of a state institution and without full responsibility to the Lebanese people”
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/06/how-hezbollah-holds-sway-over-lebanese-stat
The level of arms provided by Iran (as I noted previously) means they can operate with impunity despite a minority support. They de facto control the border of Israel, if the Lebanon military wanted to remove them they could not (nor could the UN force on the border). They cannot stop Hezbollah smuggling arms, or firing heavy shells into Northern Isreal. Therefore it’s not unreasonable to say Iran have more influence on Hezbollah than the state in which they are based, regardless of any element of legitimacy.
I’ll leave it there, geo-politics is essentially my job - the way I see it regardless of any ‘nuance’ Iran and their malign actor proxies have been the biggest threat to stability of the wider region for the past 10-15 years. Albeit in the interest of balance Saudi have played their part through their own groups. | | | |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 14:25 - Apr 15 with 494 views | tractorboy2421 |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 12:00 - Apr 15 by noggin |
Yeah we're seeing Israel 'defend itself' in Gaza apparently. How many children slaughtered now? |
Civilian casualties will always happen, when you have a organisation that thinks nothing of hiding behind them. This organisation also thinks it's ok to hide beneath hospitals & civilian areas, but this is obviously allowed 🙄 | | | |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 09:40 - Apr 17 with 262 views | DJR |
| Getting the rules on the upcoming Middle East war clear. on 13:01 - Apr 15 by jayessess |
Think this is getting absurd now. It's not "dishonest" or "post-truth" to argue that an organisation that's been implanted in Lebanese civic life for decades, with some degree of support from across one third of the population, should be understood in terms of the political and social context of Lebanese politics, not just as a projection of Iran. It's essentially the academic consensus amongst scholars of the region (see for instance, the work of Augustus Norton, Dominique Avon, Josh Daher).
People love to have their little simple narratives about the world and can't engage with the slightest bit of nuance or complexity around them without getting abusive about it. |
You're right to say that things are never as simple as the prevailing narrative in this country would lead you to believe. Just take this Wikipedia article about foreign involvement in the Syrian civil war.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war |  | | |
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