| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? 11:01 - May 16 with 2950 views | DJR |
One of Labour's pledges this morning is the following.
5) Crack down on antisocial behaviour with more neighbourhood police paid for by ending wasteful contracts, tough new penalties for offenders, and a new network of youth hubs.
Interestingly though, the following article suggests public perceptions of crime bear no relation to reality. It's almost as if the parties are scaremongering to win votes, which seems a crazy state of affairs.
https://theconversation.com/most-crime-has-fallen-by-90-in-30-years-so-why-does-
Here are some extracts.
Seventy-eight per cent of people in England and Wales think that crime has gone up in the last few years, according to the latest survey. But the data on actual crime shows the exact opposite.
As of 2024, violence, burglary and car crime have been declining for 30 years and by close to 90%, according to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) – our best indicator of true crime levels. Unlike police data, the CSEW is not subject to variations in reporting and recording.
The drop in violence includes domestic violence and other violence against women. Anti-social behaviour has similarly declined. While increased fraud and computer misuse now make up half of crime, this mainly reflects how far the rates of other crimes have fallen.
All high-income countries have experienced similar trends, and there is scientific consensus that the decline in crime is a real phenomenon.
There are, of course, exceptions. Some places, times and crime types had a less pronounced decline or even an increase. For many years, phone theft was an exception to the general decline in theft. Cybercrime, measured by the CSEW as fraud and computer misuse, has increased and is the most prominent exception.
But this increase was not due to thwarted burglars and car thieves switching targets: the skillset, resources and rewards for cybercrime are very different. Rather, it reflects new crime opportunities facilitated by the internet. Preventive policy and practice is slowly getting better at closing off opportunities for computer misuse, but work is needed to accelerate those prevention efforts. [Post edited 16 May 11:04]
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:12 - May 16 with 720 views | Herbivore |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:03 - May 16 by tonybied |
If you don't have the data from all groups then surely overall data is not representative no matter how you weigh it up! |
There are established methodologies that they can use to ensure that the data is representative and accurate. Research is part of my job, I'm not just making this stuff up. |  |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:15 - May 16 with 703 views | DJR |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:03 - May 16 by tonybied |
If you don't have the data from all groups then surely overall data is not representative no matter how you weigh it up! |
The survey is carried out on behalf of the Office for National Statistics, the executive arm of the UK Statistics Authority, so hardly some fly-by-night organisation when it comes to statistics. The UK Statistics Authority is a non-ministerial department which reports directly to the UK Parliament
And the survey has been carried out since 1981 thus making comparisons over time perfectly valid. [Post edited 16 May 13:26]
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:24 - May 16 with 674 views | DJR |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:08 - May 16 by eireblue |
Perceptions, from what studies I have seen in the past, are mostly informed by news and media, not what actually happens.
E.g. in the US when gun crimes have gone down, but reporting has gone up, perception is gun crime is worse, when it isn’t. |
Absolutely.
To take an example, I used to drive into central London from south London in the 1990s and was forever seeing signs appealing for witnesses to murders. But in those days such incidents didn't make the national news, in contrast to today, when what would have once been incidents that were only reported in local news get national prominence.
The problem is that it ends up with people in places with virtually no crime scared to go out, which I don't think is the sign of a healthy society. | | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:25 - May 16 with 672 views | jayessess |
I do wonder what it would actually take to persuade people that their perceptions about rising crime were wrong?
As a London resident feel like I'm constantly hearing on social media that Sadiq Khan has turned the city into a cesspit of crime, usually by people who don't live here. Doesn't reflect my anecdotal experience nor does it particularly fit the Met's stats (don't know about crime survey stats). But you can't convince people that your lived experience might be real! |  |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:26 - May 16 with 658 views | Herbivore |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:15 - May 16 by DJR |
The survey is carried out on behalf of the Office for National Statistics, the executive arm of the UK Statistics Authority, so hardly some fly-by-night organisation when it comes to statistics. The UK Statistics Authority is a non-ministerial department which reports directly to the UK Parliament
And the survey has been carried out since 1981 thus making comparisons over time perfectly valid. [Post edited 16 May 13:26]
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Think the response to this thread illustrates what you've discussed in your OP but also a more general trend for people to believe their perception (which includes what they see in traditional and social media as well as their own experiences, what their family and friends are saying etc.) over evidence. We saw this really take off with Brexit where rhetoric overran reality in much of the debate and we continue to see people willing to disbelieve good quality evidence if it doesn't align with their worldview. It's a big contributor to the dumbing down of politics and the rise of populism. [Post edited 16 May 13:27]
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:30 - May 16 with 636 views | lowhouseblue |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:25 - May 16 by jayessess |
I do wonder what it would actually take to persuade people that their perceptions about rising crime were wrong?
As a London resident feel like I'm constantly hearing on social media that Sadiq Khan has turned the city into a cesspit of crime, usually by people who don't live here. Doesn't reflect my anecdotal experience nor does it particularly fit the Met's stats (don't know about crime survey stats). But you can't convince people that your lived experience might be real! |
no one actually experiences the national pattern of crime. everyone experiences something different based on exactly where they live, where they go, what services they use, how much money they have. experience of crime is inevitably very unequal. so perceptions may reflect that rather than being wrong. |  |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:31 - May 16 with 632 views | ronnyd |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 12:29 - May 16 by Herbivore |
There are established methodologies for ensuring samples are representative in this kind of research and they use a very large number of participants. |
Do they use Norwich City?  |  | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:36 - May 16 with 603 views | DJR |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:30 - May 16 by lowhouseblue |
no one actually experiences the national pattern of crime. everyone experiences something different based on exactly where they live, where they go, what services they use, how much money they have. experience of crime is inevitably very unequal. so perceptions may reflect that rather than being wrong. |
But you can buy papers like the Daily Mail (which feeds into people's perceptions) wherever you live. | | | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:45 - May 16 with 575 views | jayessess |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:30 - May 16 by lowhouseblue |
no one actually experiences the national pattern of crime. everyone experiences something different based on exactly where they live, where they go, what services they use, how much money they have. experience of crime is inevitably very unequal. so perceptions may reflect that rather than being wrong. |
Sure, experiences of crime do vary, but shouldn't the national politics on crime reflect the national pattern of crime?
Also think it's extremely doubtful that worst end of that variation is experienced by the voters that the main political parties tend to target. | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:45 - May 16 with 577 views | tonybied |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:30 - May 16 by lowhouseblue |
no one actually experiences the national pattern of crime. everyone experiences something different based on exactly where they live, where they go, what services they use, how much money they have. experience of crime is inevitably very unequal. so perceptions may reflect that rather than being wrong. |
Which is what proves my point, it massively depends on who you speak to as to whether these statistics ring true. My eyes and ears show me that crime in my area is higher than I've known, I can't speak for all downtrodden areas but I see many of the less affluent areas around me suffering with the same growing issues we have here. If this information is where the biggest hole in the data is then it won't be representative, this is the type of area where the biggest swing in criminal activity tends to happen.
My mum lives in an area in Norfolk where she's still used to not locking her doors as crime just doesn't happen there, but I guarantee you she is the one more likely to reply to a letter or answer her door to help with a survey than pretty much any of the neighbours on the row of terrace houses I live in. |  | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:49 - May 16 with 560 views | lowhouseblue |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:45 - May 16 by jayessess |
Sure, experiences of crime do vary, but shouldn't the national politics on crime reflect the national pattern of crime?
Also think it's extremely doubtful that worst end of that variation is experienced by the voters that the main political parties tend to target. |
the parties know very well what the voters they need to win over care about. crime is a bigger issue to voters in red wall seats than it is in affluent areas. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:54 - May 16 with 535 views | Herbivore |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:45 - May 16 by tonybied |
Which is what proves my point, it massively depends on who you speak to as to whether these statistics ring true. My eyes and ears show me that crime in my area is higher than I've known, I can't speak for all downtrodden areas but I see many of the less affluent areas around me suffering with the same growing issues we have here. If this information is where the biggest hole in the data is then it won't be representative, this is the type of area where the biggest swing in criminal activity tends to happen.
My mum lives in an area in Norfolk where she's still used to not locking her doors as crime just doesn't happen there, but I guarantee you she is the one more likely to reply to a letter or answer her door to help with a survey than pretty much any of the neighbours on the row of terrace houses I live in. |
Mate, they aren't doing a GCSE project where they go out with a clipboard and knock on people's doors. This is proper research and as I've mentioned, they will have a methodology in place to ensure the data is representative and the findings are valid. | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:57 - May 16 with 522 views | jayessess |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:49 - May 16 by lowhouseblue |
the parties know very well what the voters they need to win over care about. crime is a bigger issue to voters in red wall seats than it is in affluent areas. |
No idea if that is the case, but extremely sceptical that we can boil this down to the idea that people in ward-specific crime-infested hell holes are target voters. There are plenty of affluent people living in posh areas with disproportionate fears of crime that simply isn't happening to them. | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:11 - May 16 with 496 views | tonybied |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:54 - May 16 by Herbivore |
Mate, they aren't doing a GCSE project where they go out with a clipboard and knock on people's doors. This is proper research and as I've mentioned, they will have a methodology in place to ensure the data is representative and the findings are valid. |
Okay, help me out here then please. I'm no statistician and I appreciate your answers so far but you're not telling me how this Survey can be representative if this demographic doesn't step forward with their experience. Surely a survey is only representative to the people that participate, it is just a survey and not a study into reported crime. What kind of methodologies are there to make this data representative without people from all walks of life participating? | | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:22 - May 16 with 471 views | WD19 |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 13:08 - May 16 by eireblue |
Perceptions, from what studies I have seen in the past, are mostly informed by news and media, not what actually happens.
E.g. in the US when gun crimes have gone down, but reporting has gone up, perception is gun crime is worse, when it isn’t. |
Its not based on perception, its based on personal lived experience of crime. Not what you think, but what has actually happened to you and your household.
Which raises a good question about how they survey murder vicitims, but whatever they do they have been doing for years so the trend is valid. |  | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:26 - May 16 with 468 views | Herbivore |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:11 - May 16 by tonybied |
Okay, help me out here then please. I'm no statistician and I appreciate your answers so far but you're not telling me how this Survey can be representative if this demographic doesn't step forward with their experience. Surely a survey is only representative to the people that participate, it is just a survey and not a study into reported crime. What kind of methodologies are there to make this data representative without people from all walks of life participating? |
They sample 75,000 households and they select the sample purposively to make sure it is representative of the make up of the country as a whole. If they get lower response rates from particular demographics they will have mechanisms they use to weight the responses that they do have differently to responses from groups where there may have been higher response rates. It is not perfect but the results will have a high degree of validity and will be pretty representative of the true picture of experiences of crime in England and Wales. Aside from the census, no research can realistically look to include every single household. | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:28 - May 16 with 459 views | lowhouseblue |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:26 - May 16 by Herbivore |
They sample 75,000 households and they select the sample purposively to make sure it is representative of the make up of the country as a whole. If they get lower response rates from particular demographics they will have mechanisms they use to weight the responses that they do have differently to responses from groups where there may have been higher response rates. It is not perfect but the results will have a high degree of validity and will be pretty representative of the true picture of experiences of crime in England and Wales. Aside from the census, no research can realistically look to include every single household. |
plus what we're discussing is trends from one survey to the next. so lots of errors, which are the same over time, drop out. | |
| And so as the loose-bowelled pigeon of time swoops low over the unsuspecting tourist of destiny, and the flatulent skunk of fate wanders into the air-conditioning system of eternity, I notice it's the end of the show |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:29 - May 16 with 447 views | jayessess |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:26 - May 16 by Herbivore |
They sample 75,000 households and they select the sample purposively to make sure it is representative of the make up of the country as a whole. If they get lower response rates from particular demographics they will have mechanisms they use to weight the responses that they do have differently to responses from groups where there may have been higher response rates. It is not perfect but the results will have a high degree of validity and will be pretty representative of the true picture of experiences of crime in England and Wales. Aside from the census, no research can realistically look to include every single household. |
and indeed one reason we do the census (the only all-population survey) is so people can conduct sample-based statistical work by using it to create and weight their sample! | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:32 - May 16 with 430 views | Herbivore |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:28 - May 16 by lowhouseblue |
plus what we're discussing is trends from one survey to the next. so lots of errors, which are the same over time, drop out. |
Yes indeed, there is of course that too. | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:35 - May 16 with 418 views | tonybied |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:26 - May 16 by Herbivore |
They sample 75,000 households and they select the sample purposively to make sure it is representative of the make up of the country as a whole. If they get lower response rates from particular demographics they will have mechanisms they use to weight the responses that they do have differently to responses from groups where there may have been higher response rates. It is not perfect but the results will have a high degree of validity and will be pretty representative of the true picture of experiences of crime in England and Wales. Aside from the census, no research can realistically look to include every single household. |
I'm not being awkward here, I'm genuinely interested. What are examples of these "mechanisms" though please? I want to understand how this data can be representative if large parts of the demographic that are mostly affected by the survey topic are not involved. | | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:38 - May 16 with 396 views | Herbivore |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:35 - May 16 by tonybied |
I'm not being awkward here, I'm genuinely interested. What are examples of these "mechanisms" though please? I want to understand how this data can be representative if large parts of the demographic that are mostly affected by the survey topic are not involved. |
Why are you assuming they aren't involved? When they come up with their sample they will be approaching lots of households who live in high crime areas just as they'll be targeting people in mid and low crime areas too. | |
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:55 - May 16 with 342 views | tonybied |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:38 - May 16 by Herbivore |
Why are you assuming they aren't involved? When they come up with their sample they will be approaching lots of households who live in high crime areas just as they'll be targeting people in mid and low crime areas too. |
I'm basing it on my knowledge of the people around me, it's not totally based on assumption. I guess you could say it's my "weighting mechanism", but I couldn't be sure as you still didn't answer the question I asked! | | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 15:02 - May 16 with 323 views | DJR |
I think the point that many are missing is that the survey doesn't say there is no crime. It just says that crime has decreased a lot in recent years, whereas 78% of people think it has gone up.
As it is, I imagine the sample for the 78% poll is little more than 1,000, as is the case with most political opinion polls. In contrast, the crime survey has vastly more participants.
And what it goes to show is that many political issues are argued not on evidence but on fear, emotion or half-truths. The recent political attacks on cyclists is a case in point.
[Post edited 16 May 15:04]
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| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 15:15 - May 16 with 306 views | vilanovablue |
I have been shouted down so often when I have discussed this on social media before. The facts are pretty clear. Knife crime a classic example. |  | | |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 15:21 - May 16 with 286 views | jayessess |
| Crime: perceptions divorced from reality? on 14:55 - May 16 by tonybied |
I'm basing it on my knowledge of the people around me, it's not totally based on assumption. I guess you could say it's my "weighting mechanism", but I couldn't be sure as you still didn't answer the question I asked! |
75,000 people is a pretty huge sample for most survey work (national opinion polls are usually 1-2000, for instance), but it's still only 0.1% of the population, so pretty unlikely to be people known personally to you.
People around you appear in these surveys via the surveyers interviewing people who are similar to them in terms of key variables (income, region, ethnicity, gender, age etc.) and weighting their answers in terms of how prevalent that sort of person is in the population as a whole. | |
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