| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 20:32 - Jan 26 with 837 views | Cotty |
Kit is great. Ultra nice bloke too!
Not sure the same can be said of Ferguson. [Post edited 26 Jan 2022 20:33]
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| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 20:44 - Jan 26 with 789 views | bluelagos |
| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 20:32 - Jan 26 by Cotty |
Kit is great. Ultra nice bloke too!
Not sure the same can be said of Ferguson. [Post edited 26 Jan 2022 20:33]
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Do you lecture disease modelling?
I studied it as part of the mathematical modelling part of my degree, but that was 30 years ago. Read up a bit on the current models and the basics are unchanged, computer power is defo the biggest change from what I can see making the number of inputs much larger am sure and the complexity off the scale compared to what I learned. |  |
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| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 21:09 - Jan 26 with 738 views | vilanovablue |
The point about modelling being taken out of context and misused is very relevant. I'd also say that computers are much faster but the variables are so massive it's an impossible job. |  | | |
| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 21:57 - Jan 26 with 673 views | Cotty |
| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 20:44 - Jan 26 by bluelagos |
Do you lecture disease modelling?
I studied it as part of the mathematical modelling part of my degree, but that was 30 years ago. Read up a bit on the current models and the basics are unchanged, computer power is defo the biggest change from what I can see making the number of inputs much larger am sure and the complexity off the scale compared to what I learned. |
I teach an MSc course with some (pretty basic) epidemiological modelling with uncertainty. | | | |
| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 22:04 - Jan 26 with 657 views | factual_blue |
| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 21:57 - Jan 26 by Cotty |
I teach an MSc course with some (pretty basic) epidemiological modelling with uncertainty. |
Surely if you teach with uncertainty your students won't have any confidence in what you say? |  |
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| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 22:08 - Jan 26 with 632 views | Ewan_Oozami |
| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 21:57 - Jan 26 by Cotty |
I teach an MSc course with some (pretty basic) epidemiological modelling with uncertainty. |
Your name's not Vroomfondel is it? |  |
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| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 22:42 - Jan 26 with 590 views | Trequartista |
Are we on 4 million cases a day yet or 8 million? I can't keep up.
On a less sarcastic note though, I don't feel it is the mathematical models that are at fault, i just feel there are too many unknowns in the variables going into them to make them of any value or accuracy. When the estimates are made for the unknown variables, they are always pessimistic.
Take Whitty's comment of everything we know about Omicron is bad. From what we saw in South Africa, it was fairly clear, but not proven against a UK cohort, that Omicron would be more transmissible, and it was fairly clear, but not proven, that Omicron would be virulent against a UK cohort. Yet he was only willing to accept the pessimistic data and not the optimistic data.
Sure, it's always good to err on the side of caution, but there is a cost of continually overestimating things. You will remind me i have no qualifications or initials after my name but Dr Raghib Ali MD(Epi) MPH FRCP (UK), Clinical Epidemiologist at Cambridge University does and he today claims plan B restrictions haven't made "any significant difference to outcomes, with death rates across home nations not differing since July 19 (England is in fact lower than Wales & Scotland)"
I view these mathematical models with the same scepticism as opinion polls and long-range weather forecasts. Guesswork. [Post edited 26 Jan 2022 22:43]
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| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 23:32 - Jan 26 with 526 views | BlueBadger |
| Food for thought on the Pandemic modelling on 22:04 - Jan 26 by factual_blue |
Surely if you teach with uncertainty your students won't have any confidence in what you say? |
I've taught on the shop floor with a certain amount of uncertainty for over 20 years and several of my students are now sisters, charge nurses, specialist nurses, mangers and matron now, if that helps. |  |
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