| Taiwan 16:40 - Jan 14 with 2693 views | DJR |
This doesn't seem to have been widely reported (or reported at all in the UK?) but interesting to note that the DPP (the most anti-China party) lost 11 seats and ended up as the second placed party in the legislative elections to the KMT party, which favours closer relations with China. As such it lost the absolute majority it has held since 2016.
And in the presidential election, the candidates for the two parties favouring closer relations with China got more votes combined than the DPP presidential candidate who was elected on 40% of the vote.
I may be an old cynic but maybe this aspect of the result doesn't fit the narrative, hence the silence. [Post edited 14 Jan 16:51]
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| Taiwan on 17:17 - Jan 14 with 2480 views | GeoffSentence |
The Guardian has reported it They have been following he Taiwanese elections prey closely |  |
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| Taiwan on 17:37 - Jan 14 with 2384 views | DJR |
| Taiwan on 17:17 - Jan 14 by GeoffSentence |
The Guardian has reported it They have been following he Taiwanese elections prey closely |
Yes, I came across this in an comment piece of the Guardian but you certainly have to dig deep to find things like this.
On the surface, the result is a smashing victory for the DPP. But a closer analysis of the numbers reveals a narrow victory. Had the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s party (TPP) – the two losing parties – formed an alliance, the DPP would not have won. The DPP lost its majority in the legislature, which means that it will have a tough four years moving its policy agenda forward. The party must learn from the closeness of this election. [Post edited 14 Jan 17:37]
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| Taiwan on 17:39 - Jan 14 with 2348 views | GeoffSentence |
| Taiwan on 17:37 - Jan 14 by DJR |
Yes, I came across this in an comment piece of the Guardian but you certainly have to dig deep to find things like this.
On the surface, the result is a smashing victory for the DPP. But a closer analysis of the numbers reveals a narrow victory. Had the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s party (TPP) – the two losing parties – formed an alliance, the DPP would not have won. The DPP lost its majority in the legislature, which means that it will have a tough four years moving its policy agenda forward. The party must learn from the closeness of this election. [Post edited 14 Jan 17:37]
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You don't have to dig that deep. Just click on the world news tab. They do default to UK news, but they cover a lot global stories. | |
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| Taiwan on 17:54 - Jan 14 with 2271 views | DJR |
| Taiwan on 17:39 - Jan 14 by GeoffSentence |
You don't have to dig that deep. Just click on the world news tab. They do default to UK news, but they cover a lot global stories. |
When I say dig deep, I mean that it is not the sort of thing that many in the UK will come across, such people being perhaps more inclined to get their news on such matters from the headlines, which didn't from what I heard or saw pick up on the point I was making.
As it was, I was alerted to the point by a discussion on the World Service. [Post edited 14 Jan 17:57]
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| Taiwan on 18:14 - Jan 14 with 2213 views | DJR |
Interestingly, on the Economists' Democracy Index for 2022, Taiwan comes in at an impressive 10th place, with the UK at 18th and the USA at 30th. Indeed, the USA according to this index is regarded as a Flawed Democracy.
Flawed Democracies are nations where elections are fair and free and basic civil liberties are honoured but may have issues (e.g. media freedom infringement and minor suppression of political opposition and critics). These nations can have significant faults in other democratic aspects, including underdeveloped political culture, low levels of participation in politics, and issues in the functioning of governance. | | | |
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| Taiwan on 18:29 - Jan 14 with 2171 views | GeoffSentence |
| Taiwan on 18:14 - Jan 14 by DJR |
Interestingly, on the Economists' Democracy Index for 2022, Taiwan comes in at an impressive 10th place, with the UK at 18th and the USA at 30th. Indeed, the USA according to this index is regarded as a Flawed Democracy.
Flawed Democracies are nations where elections are fair and free and basic civil liberties are honoured but may have issues (e.g. media freedom infringement and minor suppression of political opposition and critics). These nations can have significant faults in other democratic aspects, including underdeveloped political culture, low levels of participation in politics, and issues in the functioning of governance. |
I'm actually surprised that the UK isn't considered a flawed democracy given that we have an appointed second chamber and a hereditary monarch that wields influence over our political process | |
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| Taiwan on 19:15 - Jan 14 with 2101 views | DJR |
| Taiwan on 18:29 - Jan 14 by GeoffSentence |
I'm actually surprised that the UK isn't considered a flawed democracy given that we have an appointed second chamber and a hereditary monarch that wields influence over our political process |
That's a very good point. | | | |
| Taiwan on 20:47 - Jan 14 with 2000 views | Freddies_Ears |
Having travelled to both Taiwan and China many times, back in my working days, I am in the unfortunate position of being able to see this problem through both sets of eyes.
I was disappointed by BBC 5Live's news report, which stated that the election result was a victory for pro-independence. This had an unstated but implied implication that Taiwan is currently a province of China that seeks independence. A neutral report would have said it was a victory for the status quo / current status.
China is nervous about taking Taiwan by force, as losses could be very high. Taiwan does not want to have to defend itself against the Chinese military for similar reasons. The terrain of Taiwan is perfect for planned long-term guerilla warfare, harder to take than, say Switzerland in ww2 (and even Hitler baulked at that challenge).
If China senses weakness on the part of the USA, maybe due to USA getting utterly dragged into a Middle East conflict, or a Trump election victory leading to the US disengaging from international affairs (of the military type...), then the risk of intervention would be very high.
China believes it has the right to govern Taiwan, and it has understandable justifications. Taiwan sees itself as democratic and independent and wants to keep it that way.
I won't go into complications about massive family and economic ties between China & Taiwan, let alone the earlier history of how the current status developed.
In the end, the people who would be most hurt are the general public, ordinary people just wanting the best for themselves and their families & friends. Just like in Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, Yemen etc etc etc... |  | | |
| Taiwan on 21:15 - Jan 14 with 1931 views | DJR |
| Taiwan on 20:47 - Jan 14 by Freddies_Ears |
Having travelled to both Taiwan and China many times, back in my working days, I am in the unfortunate position of being able to see this problem through both sets of eyes.
I was disappointed by BBC 5Live's news report, which stated that the election result was a victory for pro-independence. This had an unstated but implied implication that Taiwan is currently a province of China that seeks independence. A neutral report would have said it was a victory for the status quo / current status.
China is nervous about taking Taiwan by force, as losses could be very high. Taiwan does not want to have to defend itself against the Chinese military for similar reasons. The terrain of Taiwan is perfect for planned long-term guerilla warfare, harder to take than, say Switzerland in ww2 (and even Hitler baulked at that challenge).
If China senses weakness on the part of the USA, maybe due to USA getting utterly dragged into a Middle East conflict, or a Trump election victory leading to the US disengaging from international affairs (of the military type...), then the risk of intervention would be very high.
China believes it has the right to govern Taiwan, and it has understandable justifications. Taiwan sees itself as democratic and independent and wants to keep it that way.
I won't go into complications about massive family and economic ties between China & Taiwan, let alone the earlier history of how the current status developed.
In the end, the people who would be most hurt are the general public, ordinary people just wanting the best for themselves and their families & friends. Just like in Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, Yemen etc etc etc... |
Thanks for your insight.
Interestingly though, tensions with China over Taiwan actually ratcheted up under Trump, so maybe his election would have no difference given his general hostility to China. Indeed, China was one of the very few foreign policy areas he seemed interested in, perhaps in part because trade with China as an issue fitted very well with his America First slogan.
This from a Reuters' article.
December 2016 - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump breaks decades of U.S. diplomatic precedent by speaking directly, by telephone, with President Tsai Ing-wen.
2017 - Trump administration approves $1.4 billion worth of arms sales to Taiwan, prompting anger from Beijing.
March 2018 - Trump signs legislation that encourages the United States to send senior officials to Taiwan to meet Taiwanese counterparts and vice versa, again infuriating China.
September 2018 - the U.S. State Department approves the sale to Taiwan of spare parts for F-16 fighter jets and other military aircraft worth up to $330 million, drawing a warning from China that it jeopardises cooperation between Beijing and Washington. [Post edited 14 Jan 21:33]
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| Taiwan on 21:35 - Jan 14 with 1876 views | Freddies_Ears |
| Taiwan on 21:15 - Jan 14 by DJR |
Thanks for your insight.
Interestingly though, tensions with China over Taiwan actually ratcheted up under Trump, so maybe his election would have no difference given his general hostility to China. Indeed, China was one of the very few foreign policy areas he seemed interested in, perhaps in part because trade with China as an issue fitted very well with his America First slogan.
This from a Reuters' article.
December 2016 - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump breaks decades of U.S. diplomatic precedent by speaking directly, by telephone, with President Tsai Ing-wen.
2017 - Trump administration approves $1.4 billion worth of arms sales to Taiwan, prompting anger from Beijing.
March 2018 - Trump signs legislation that encourages the United States to send senior officials to Taiwan to meet Taiwanese counterparts and vice versa, again infuriating China.
September 2018 - the U.S. State Department approves the sale to Taiwan of spare parts for F-16 fighter jets and other military aircraft worth up to $330 million, drawing a warning from China that it jeopardises cooperation between Beijing and Washington. [Post edited 14 Jan 21:33]
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Wow, that's fascinating - i hadnt appreciated that angle, so thank you. You seem like the kind of person I'd love to have a beer with... | | | |
| Taiwan on 23:41 - Jan 14 with 1782 views | Kievthegreat |
| Taiwan on 17:37 - Jan 14 by DJR |
Yes, I came across this in an comment piece of the Guardian but you certainly have to dig deep to find things like this.
On the surface, the result is a smashing victory for the DPP. But a closer analysis of the numbers reveals a narrow victory. Had the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s party (TPP) – the two losing parties – formed an alliance, the DPP would not have won. The DPP lost its majority in the legislature, which means that it will have a tough four years moving its policy agenda forward. The party must learn from the closeness of this election. [Post edited 14 Jan 17:37]
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We need to be careful with such election arithmetic. If Labour and Lib Dems formed an alliance they'd have won every election since the 90s. However you can't just lump 2 parties together and assume everyone would agree and vote for the new entity. They are 2 parties for a reason.
PS. Taiwanese politics is way out of my wheelhouse, but based on the assumption I wouldn't add 2 UK parties together, I definitely wouldn't have confidence to do it with Taiwanese parties. |  | | |
| Taiwan on 10:15 - Jan 15 with 1553 views | DJR |
| Taiwan on 23:41 - Jan 14 by Kievthegreat |
We need to be careful with such election arithmetic. If Labour and Lib Dems formed an alliance they'd have won every election since the 90s. However you can't just lump 2 parties together and assume everyone would agree and vote for the new entity. They are 2 parties for a reason.
PS. Taiwanese politics is way out of my wheelhouse, but based on the assumption I wouldn't add 2 UK parties together, I definitely wouldn't have confidence to do it with Taiwanese parties. |
The quote was from a Taiwanese based in the US but what you say has merits given that policy in relation to China will not have been the only factor in the election. | | | |
| Taiwan on 14:36 - Jan 15 with 1431 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Taiwan on 23:41 - Jan 14 by Kievthegreat |
We need to be careful with such election arithmetic. If Labour and Lib Dems formed an alliance they'd have won every election since the 90s. However you can't just lump 2 parties together and assume everyone would agree and vote for the new entity. They are 2 parties for a reason.
PS. Taiwanese politics is way out of my wheelhouse, but based on the assumption I wouldn't add 2 UK parties together, I definitely wouldn't have confidence to do it with Taiwanese parties. |
Agreed - whilst tempting to put 2 and 2 together this is very much a status quo outcome. Certainly Xi doesn’t see this as being a more pro-China message.
The risk assessment for Taiwan is still pretty bleak, hopefully China will be distracted by their ongoing property/economic crisis. Then again Xi, like Putin has always prioritised ideology over economic matters. You only have to look to Hong Kong to see why Taiwan is nervous - the brutalisation of protesters, clampdown on opposition and economic damage. Western firms have increasingly looked to Singapore over HK, and the Hang Seng Index has HALVED its capitaisation since 2018. | | | |
| Taiwan on 15:09 - Jan 15 with 1367 views | Lord_Lucan |
| Taiwan on 14:36 - Jan 15 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Agreed - whilst tempting to put 2 and 2 together this is very much a status quo outcome. Certainly Xi doesn’t see this as being a more pro-China message.
The risk assessment for Taiwan is still pretty bleak, hopefully China will be distracted by their ongoing property/economic crisis. Then again Xi, like Putin has always prioritised ideology over economic matters. You only have to look to Hong Kong to see why Taiwan is nervous - the brutalisation of protesters, clampdown on opposition and economic damage. Western firms have increasingly looked to Singapore over HK, and the Hang Seng Index has HALVED its capitaisation since 2018. |
I haven't been to HK for about 6 years but I am currently in China and had a beer with a guy last night who had just come up through HK and he said that HK is now pretty much screwed.
Not sure about any supposed economic crisis in China though as the place is as buzzing and as blingy as ever. I'm currently in a small city (they state 2m but probably double that) and the buildings expansion is massive and everyone is driving around in new cars.
Afraid to admit that I am very clueless about the Taiwan situation but I will ask our guy tomorrow. There are two types of people in China, 1/ the guys who swallow everything from the government (80%) and 2/ the guys that use VPN and search world news.
Tomorrow guy is firmly mr China and believes Covid19 came from USA
Also, rather interesting - and I have no idea if global warming affects the worst polluting countries but, I've been coming to this same city for over 20 years and apart from Covid I am always here in January. ------ Anyhoo, back in the day it was always freezing cold, complete monkeys!
Yesterday was 21 degrees
Edit - Mr Liu says there will be a war with Taiwan within 5 years - 100%
This is good news as he is usually wrong about everything. [Post edited 16 Jan 5:46]
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| Taiwan on 19:23 - Jan 15 with 1262 views | DJR |
| Taiwan on 14:36 - Jan 15 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
Agreed - whilst tempting to put 2 and 2 together this is very much a status quo outcome. Certainly Xi doesn’t see this as being a more pro-China message.
The risk assessment for Taiwan is still pretty bleak, hopefully China will be distracted by their ongoing property/economic crisis. Then again Xi, like Putin has always prioritised ideology over economic matters. You only have to look to Hong Kong to see why Taiwan is nervous - the brutalisation of protesters, clampdown on opposition and economic damage. Western firms have increasingly looked to Singapore over HK, and the Hang Seng Index has HALVED its capitaisation since 2018. |
I'm not convinced the risk is as great as is often stated. A sea distance of 100 miles separates China from Taiwan, Taiwan is a country with a terrain which would make it difficult to conquer, and China has had over 70 years to invade without doing so up to now.
Of course there is rhetoric and sabre rattling, but I am not convinced it is any more than that, and the best thing with the world in its current state would be for both sides to ease the tensions. Indeed, the fact that the US supports the One China policy, and doesn't recognise Taiwan, suggests that the US doesn't itself want to go too far.
As it is, current tensions have their origins in the "Pivot to Asia" under Obama, which moved US interests away from the MIddle East and Europe for economic and military reasons, in large part to counteract China which was seen as a threat to US hegemony. But Trump further aggravated tensions.
The following is particularly worth reading.
https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-pivot-to-asia-was-obamas-biggest-mistake/
It seems to me that the Pivot to Asia was the beginning of the period when US took its eye off the ball when it came to Europe, subsequently encouraging Russia in Ukraine, as well as provoking what seem to me unnecessary tensions with China. [Post edited 15 Jan 20:03]
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| Taiwan on 20:48 - Jan 15 with 1172 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Taiwan on 19:23 - Jan 15 by DJR |
I'm not convinced the risk is as great as is often stated. A sea distance of 100 miles separates China from Taiwan, Taiwan is a country with a terrain which would make it difficult to conquer, and China has had over 70 years to invade without doing so up to now.
Of course there is rhetoric and sabre rattling, but I am not convinced it is any more than that, and the best thing with the world in its current state would be for both sides to ease the tensions. Indeed, the fact that the US supports the One China policy, and doesn't recognise Taiwan, suggests that the US doesn't itself want to go too far.
As it is, current tensions have their origins in the "Pivot to Asia" under Obama, which moved US interests away from the MIddle East and Europe for economic and military reasons, in large part to counteract China which was seen as a threat to US hegemony. But Trump further aggravated tensions.
The following is particularly worth reading.
https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-pivot-to-asia-was-obamas-biggest-mistake/
It seems to me that the Pivot to Asia was the beginning of the period when US took its eye off the ball when it came to Europe, subsequently encouraging Russia in Ukraine, as well as provoking what seem to me unnecessary tensions with China. [Post edited 15 Jan 20:03]
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That’s fine, you are entitled to that opinion- I just meant the risk assessment is grave in a literal sense (what I’ve seen in a professional capacity). Though the ‘they’ve not done it yet befor4’ made me chuckle.
Ironically it’s probably semiconductors that will provide more safety than weapons imports - the US will continue to back them so long as they are reliant (the US are trying to onshore the manufacturing capability). | | | |
| Taiwan on 21:07 - Jan 15 with 1145 views | DJR |
| Taiwan on 20:48 - Jan 15 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
That’s fine, you are entitled to that opinion- I just meant the risk assessment is grave in a literal sense (what I’ve seen in a professional capacity). Though the ‘they’ve not done it yet befor4’ made me chuckle.
Ironically it’s probably semiconductors that will provide more safety than weapons imports - the US will continue to back them so long as they are reliant (the US are trying to onshore the manufacturing capability). |
Famous last words? | | | |
| Taiwan on 21:17 - Jan 15 with 1103 views | SuperKieranMcKenna |
| Taiwan on 21:07 - Jan 15 by DJR |
Famous last words? |
There’s certainly going to be a lot more volatility in the world if Trump gets in! He’s been hardline on China in his first term with his trade war and rhetoric. That said, he’s an isolationist- would he come to aid of another nation militarily…? | | | |
| Taiwan on 21:37 - Jan 15 with 1074 views | DJR |
| Taiwan on 21:17 - Jan 15 by SuperKieranMcKenna |
There’s certainly going to be a lot more volatility in the world if Trump gets in! He’s been hardline on China in his first term with his trade war and rhetoric. That said, he’s an isolationist- would he come to aid of another nation militarily…? |
Sadly, it looks like it may well happen. Just a shame the Democrats couldn't come up with a better (and younger) candidate. [Post edited 15 Jan 21:38]
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